Biodiversity and Economic

Development in Northern Australia

Steve Morton

CSIRO

Threatened ecosystems

National Land and Water Resources

Audit

CSIRO

Mammal range contraction

National Land and Water Resources

Audit

CSIRO

Landscape stress

Stress index includes:

• vegetation

• salinity

• pests and weeds

• threatened species and ecosystemsNational Land and

Water Resources Audit

CSIRO

What’s the biodiversity trend?

• Downward Australia-wide

• Why?- grazing- fire- introduced pests and weeds- land-clearing

CSIRO

Two questions about biodiversity

• Does biodiversity matter? - ecosystem goods and services

- clean water- soil structure and fertility- pest control

- aesthetics and morality

• What further pressures will occur?- land development scenarios

CSIRO

Decision points for land and water futures

• Michael Dunlop, Graham Turner, Barney Foran, and Franzi Poldi

• Scenarios for the next 50-100 years, and a long-term view of natural resource use

• Built from the Australian Stocks and FlowsFramework, a physical model of our economy

CSIRO

Water extraction from the Murray-Darling Basin

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Water use

Average annual outlfow

CSIRO

Area cleared in Australia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1851

1901

1951

2001

2051

2101

Are

a (M

ha)

CSIRO

Area cleared (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Sp

ecie

s lo

ss (

%)

0

20

40

60

80Z= 0.2 Z= 0.25 Z= 0.3

The species-area curve

CSIRO

CSIRO

Agriculture’s economic contribution

CSIRO

Surface runoff

CSIRO

Dryland agriculture scenario

• Investment in dryland agriculture• Expand northern agriculture• Slowing in land degradation• Decrease in irrigation• Increase in river health

CSIRO

Irrigated agriculture scenario

• Reorganise irrigation in south• Increase higher value crops,

decrease pasture and rice• Major expansion in north: cotton, sugar, hort• More agro-forestry, conservation • Major improvements in land based natural

resource issues• Southern rivers remain stressed

CSIRO

Post-agriculture scenario

• Reduction in dryland and irrigated areas• Reinvent agricultural systems• Expansion of new industries

CSIRO

Northern dryland agriculture

Northern dryland area

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1851

1901

1951

2001

2051

2101

Dry

lan

d a

rea

(M

ha)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Post agriculture

Irrigation scenario

Dryland scenario

CSIRO

Northern irrigated agriculture

Northern irrigated area

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1851

1901

1951

2001

2051

2101

Irri

gat

ion

(M

ha)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Post agriculture

Irrigation scenario

Dryland scenario

CSIRO

Northern water useNorthern irrigation

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1851

1901

1951

2001

2051

2101

Irri

gat

ion

(G

L)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

History

Post agriculture

Irrigation scenario

Dryland scenario

CSIRO

Australian agriculture

Total area

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1851

1901

1951

2001

2051

2101

Are

a (

Mh

a)

History Post agriculture

Irrigation scenario

Dryland scenario

CSIRO

Biodiversity consequences

• Northern development will have biodiversity impacts - future change is inevitable

• Challenges can be anticipated and managed if we are prepared to face up to them

• Knowledge is the key!• Knowledge gaps exist – scenarios can help

set priorities here• Will we do it right?