Helena ChumHelena ChumNational National BioenergyBioenergy CenterCenter
October 5, 2005October 5, 2005
Biomass and Renewables Opportunities
The Promise ofThe Promise ofEnergy IndependenceEnergy Independence
Examining national policy and regional actionExamining national policy and regional action
Secretary CohenSecretary Cohen’’s Paperss Papers
Major DOE National Laboratories
INLINLNRELNRELLawrence BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley
Lawrence LivermoreLawrence Livermore
Los AlamosLos Alamos
SandiaSandia
Pacific NorthwestPacific Northwest
ArgonneArgonneBrookhavenBrookhaven
NETLNETL
Oak RidgeOak RidgeNuclear SecurityScienceEnergy Efficiency and
Renewable EnergyNuclear EnergyFossil Energy
Nuclear SecurityScienceEnergy Efficiency and
Renewable EnergyNuclear EnergyFossil Energy
Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy byMidwest Research Institute • Battelle
Savannah RiverSavannah River
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
iOnly national laboratory dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D
iResearch spans fundamental science to technology solutions
iCollaboration with industry and university partners is a hallmark
iResearch programs linked to market opportunities
U.S. Rep. Michael Michaud
State Rep. R. Hotham
State Rep. John Patrick
John Ferland,Director
Center for Environmental
Enterprise
Jack CashmanCommissioner,
Maine Department of Economic& Community Development
River Valley Growth Council
Chairman, Joe Derouche
Paul Nace, Nace &
Associates
Scott Christiansen,Executive Director,
River Valley Growth Council
Michael Bilodeau, Univ of Maine,
Pulp and Paper Lab
Bob EvansNREL
State Senator Bruce Bryant
National RenewableEnergy Laboratory
Science and TechnologyAssociate Director,
Stan Bull
River Valley Biorefinery Consortium
River Valley Technology Center
DirectorNorman L. MacIntyre
MOU Signing Maine Organizations/NREL Witnessed by the Maine Delegation Visitors to NREL
March 22, 2004
Outline
• Brief Biomass and Bioenergy History 1973-2000
• 2000 - 2005
• The Future of Renewable Energy
Secretary Cohen’s statements1973-1975
• “The era of cheap, abundant oil is over, and the sooner we accept this fact, the sooner we can get on with the task of developing alternative energy sourcesalternative energy sources” – 1973
• “…the crux of the energy challenge confronting us revolves around not only recognizing, but reconciling multiple reconciling multiple concernsconcerns of environmental quality, economic development, and national security” - 1975
Equally valid in 2005 Equally valid in 2005 –– but technology, but technology, markets, and policies made progress markets, and policies made progress
Renewable Share of U.S. Energy Supply(data for 2003)
Coal 23%
Petroleum 39%
Renewable 6%
Natural Gas 24%
Nuclear 8%
Wind 2%
Biomass 46%9 GW, 60 TWh
Hydroelectric 46%
Geothermal 5%
Solar <1%
Source: AEO 2004 tables (released in December 2003) based on US energy consumption. Overall breakdown Table A1 (Total Energy Supply and Disposition), and Renewable breakdown Table A18 (Renewable Energy, Consumption by Section and Source).
Reference
• Chum, H. L.; Overend, R. P. (2003). • Chapter 3: Biomass and Bioenergy in the
United States. • Goswami, D. Y., ed. • Advances in Solar Energy: An Annual Review
of Research and Development, Volume 15. • Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Society,
Inc. (ASES); pp. 83-148
DOE Bioenergy and Biobased ProductsRD&D Annual Budgets in 2000$
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Fiscal Year
Mill
ion
2000
$
Biobased Products - includes Forest Products and Agriculture (Interior)Energy from Municipal Waste-EMW (Interior and E&W)Alcohol Fuels R&D & Market DevelopmentBiomass, Biofuels, Biopower, Bioenergy (E&W)
Cumulative investment of $1.4-$1.5 Billion (2000$) (does not include loan programs)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Fiscal Year
Mill
ion
2000
$
Biobased Products - includes Forest Products and Agriculture (Interior)Energy from Municipal Waste-EMW (Interior and E&W)Alcohol Fuels R&D & Market DevelopmentBiomass, Biofuels, Biopower, Bioenergy (E&W)
Cumulative investment of $1.4-$1.5 Billion (2000$) (does not include loan programs)
DOE Bioenergy and Biobased ProductsThe context: key policies shifted periodically
Bioenergy and Biobased Products and Key Government Regulatory and Financial Incentives (1987-2000)
Approximately a $1.55 Billion (2000 $) investment without Loan Guarantees Program
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Fiscal Year
Milli
on 2
000
$
Biobased Products - includes Forest Products and Agriculture (Interior)Energy from Municipal Waste-EMW (Interior and E&W)Alcohol Fuels R&D & Market DevelopmentBiomass, Biofuels, Biopower, Bioenergy (E&W)
President: Carter Reagan Bush Clinton
CleanAir Act
Amend.
TransportationEquity
ActFor the
21st Century
EnergyPolicy
ActEPACT
EnergyConservation
ReauthorizationActIntermodal
SurfaceTransportation
Act
TaxRelief
ExtensionAct
BiomassR&DAct
PollutionPrevention
Act
Approximately a $1.55 Billion (2000 $) investment without Loan Guarantees Program
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Fiscal Year
Milli
on 2
000
$
Biobased Products - includes Forest Products and Agriculture (Interior)Energy from Municipal Waste-EMW (Interior and E&W)Alcohol Fuels R&D & Market DevelopmentBiomass, Biofuels, Biopower, Bioenergy (E&W)
President: Carter Reagan Bush Clinton
CleanAir Act
Amend.
TransportationEquity
ActFor the
21st Century
EnergyPolicy
ActEPACT
EnergyConservation
ReauthorizationActIntermodal
SurfaceTransportation
Act
TaxRelief
ExtensionAct
BiomassR&DAct
PollutionPrevention
Act
Energy Tax Credit
Public UtilityRegulatoryPolicy Act(PURPA)
Crude OilWindfallProfits
Tax Act
TransportationEquity
Act
EnergyConservation &Reauthorization
Act
CleanAirAct
Amend.EnergyPolicy
Act
1000 Peta Joules = 1 Exa Joule =0.95 Quads
1971
500
0
1000
2000
3000
1500
2500
3500
Industry
Commercial
MSW & LFG
Residential
EthanolUtility
1975 1980Year Biomassprimary
1985 1990 1995 1999
Crude OilWindfall
OTA (1981). Energy from Biological Processes. Washington, D.C., Congress of the United States, Office of Technology Assessment: p 113. EIA (2000). Renewable Energy Annual 1999. DOE/EIA 0603(99) Washington D.C., USA, 117.
PURPA
ProfitsTax Act
EPAct
EnergyTax Act
U.S. Biomass Resource Potential
•Millions dry tons per year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
$20 $30 $40 $50 GigatonVision
Forest Residues (and thinnings)Urban WastesAg Residues (and grain crops)Mill Residues Energy Crops
From 2000 Supply Curve by ORNL
3 Billion BOE
Biomass Availability and Type
• “Billion Ton” study indicates that enough biomass is potentially available to displace > 30% of current U.S. petroleum consumption
• But it requires variety of biomass types– Agricultural lands
• Corn stover, wheat straw, soybean residue, manure, switchgrass, poplar/willow energy crops, etc.
– Forest lands• Forest thinnings, fuelwoods, logging residues, wood processing and paper
mill residues, urban wood wastes, etc.
The 1.3 Billion Ton Biomass Scenario
Based on ORNL & USDA Resource Assessment Study by Perlach et.al. (April 2005) http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/pdfs/final_billionton_vision_report2.pdf
Billion Barrel of Oil Equivalents
Today’s Options•Ethanol–Primarily produced from corn (U.S.) and sugar cane
–Most use as 10% blends in U.S.–All vehicles compatible
•Biodiesel–Primarily produced from soy (U.S.) and rapeseed–Most use as 20% blends in U.S.–Research to insure compatibility ongoing
• But all vehicles are compatible with 5% blends
Energy Policy Act of 2005
Actual and Projected U.S. Ethanol Production 2002 - 2012
0123456789
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Cellulosic EthanolConventional EthanolRFS
Ethanol Production
Renewable Fuels Standard mandates 7.5 billion gallons by 2012Total US gasoline market ~140 billion annual gallons
Billion Gallons of Production
Ultimate Potential of Ethanol• On track to use 10% ethanol in all US gasoline• Main barriers are ethanol transport and distribution• Higher volumes might be produced from lignocellulosic biomass
Technical barriers remain in manufacturing process–Utilization of larger volumes will require expanded use of E85 and flex-fuel vehicles
Ethanol: the complete energy lifecycle picture, M. Wang, ANL, 2005
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
RFG CornEtOH:DM
CornEtOH:WM
Cell.EtOH
RFG CornEtOH:DM
CornEtOH:WM
Cell.EtOH
RFG CornEtOH:DM
CornEtOH:WM
Cell.EtOH
Btu for Fuel ProductionBtu in Fuel
Total Energy Fossil Energy Petroleum
Energy Required to Produce Fuels•Total Btu spent for 1 Btu available at fuel pumps
Source: Argonne National Laboratory’s results from GREET simulations
Fossil Energy Saved
PetroleumEnergy Saved
Tracking Progress in Reducing Costs
$2.87
$2.27$2.00
$1.77 $1.72
$0.77
$0.61
$0.57$0.73
$0.90$0.78
$0.33
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010
Conversion Feedstock Extrapolated Conversion Cost Reduction
•The NBC uses Process Engineering and Economic Models
Cellulosic Ethanol Cost ($/gallon)
FY 2010 costs based on $30/ton stover
$3.48
$2.84 $2.73 $2.67$2.50
$1.07
Biodiesel Production
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Gal
lons
•Total US distillate fuels market ~60 billion annual gallons•Current U.S. average rack price $2.76/gal (versus $2.25 for No. 2 diesel)
Urea
SyngasCO + H2
Mixed Alcohols
AmmoniaRefineries
Hydrogen
Fischer Tropsch FuelsWaxAlpha-olefins
Acetic Acid
Formaldehyde
MTBE
Diesel Additives
EthanolMethanol
DME
Bottom Ash Removal
InjectorScrews
High/Low PressureGasifier
Cyclone(Optional)
AIR/O2
BARK & SLUDGE
O2/AIR / STEAM
Fluidized Bed
Freeboard Disengaging Zone
SYNGAS
Bottom Ash Removal
InjectorScrews
High/Low PressureGasifier
Cyclone(Optional)
AIR/O2
BARK & SLUDGE
O2/AIR / STEAM
Fluidized Bed
Freeboard Disengaging Zone
SYNGAS
PolypropyleneAcrylonitrilePolyethylene
Ethylene GlycolAlpha-olefins
Olefins
Hydrocarbon fungibility will be a key characteristic of winning technology
Primary Energy Source Syngas Step Conversion Technology Products
Syngas(CO + H2)
Fischer Tropsch
(FT)Upgrading
Lubes
Naphtha
DieselSyngas to Liquids (GTL) Process
Mixed Alcohols (e.g. ethanol, propanol)
Syngas to Chemicals Technologies
Methanol
Acetic Acid
Others (e.g. Triptane, DME, etc)
Coal
Natural Gas
Biomass
Hydrogen
Extra Heavy
Oil
Syngas Syngas Liquid Fuels and Chemicals from:
BL Gasifier, andWood Residual Gasifier
Pulp Manufacturing
Extract portion of thehemicellulose
Convert the extract toethanol and chemicals
Black Liquor& Residuals
Steam,Power &Chemicals
Evolving Forest Biorefinery Concept
courtesy of: Del Raymond (Weyerhaeuser)
Cellulose still used tomanufacture paper
Evolving Decentralized Biomass Liquids Scenario
Evolving Decentralized Biomass Liquids Scenario
•Alternate Feedstocks Petroleum Refinery
PowerPlant
EthanolPlant
PyrolysisPlant
PyrolysisPlant
PyrolysisPlant
Oil Refinery
Range of Biorefinery ConceptsUsesUses§Fuels
– Ethanol– Renewable Diesel
– Others
§Power– Electricity– Heat– Heat and Electricity
§Chemicals– Plastics– Solvents– Chemical Intermediates– Phenolics– Adhesives– Furfural– Fatty Acids– Acetic Acid– Carbon Black– Paints– Dyes, Pigments, and Ink– Detergents– Etc.
•Food, Feed and Fiber
• Enzymatic Fermentation
• Gas/liquid Fermentation
• Acid Hydrolysis/Fermentation
• Gasification• Combustion• Co-firing
Conversion ProcessesConversion Processes
• Trees• Grasses• Agricultural Crops• Crop Residues• Animal Wastes• Municipal Solid
Waste
Biomass FeedstockBiomass Feedstock
U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 oil importing nations combined.
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 oil importing nations combined.
Katrina & RitaKatrina & Rita
NaturalNaturalDisastersDisasters
WarsWars2005
National Predicament• Very slow renewal of existing infrastructure geared to cheap fuel• Need to maintain security of:
–Fuel supply–Generating capacity
• We have only today’s technology for 2025
• Energy needs will grow
Infrastructure Life, years
Cars 10 -15Aircraft 20 -30
Wind turbines 25Power plants 40+
Trains 30+Electrical distribution 40+
Houses 70+
Source: Lord Ron Oxburgh, Royal Dutch Shell
Energy Challenges are Enormous
Economic Growth
Energy Security and Reliability
Environmental Impact
Market Restructuring
U.S. Energy Flows
RejectedEnergy
98.2
Qua
drill
ion
Btu Fuels
61%Fuels61%
Electricity39%
Buildings40%
Industry33%
Transportation27%
62%
Technology-based Solutions:There is no one silver bullet, we need many
• Energy efficiency• Renewable energy• Non-polluting transportation fuels • Separation and capture of CO2 from fossil fuels• Next generation of nuclear fission and fusion technology• Transition to smart, resilient, distributed energy systems coupled with
pollution-free energy carriers, e.g. hydrogen and electricity
Renewable Energy Will Play a Key Role in a More Diverse and Secure
Energy Supply
The Future for Renewable Energy
•Wind•Solar•Biomass
Renewable Energy Will Play a Key Role in a More Diverse and Secure Energy Supply
Renewable Energy Costs are DecreasingLevelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
PV
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
100
80
60
40
20
0
Wind
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h40
30
20
10
0
BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h
10
8
6
4
2
0
706050403020100
15
12
9
6
3
0
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002
Alaska1
California2,096
Colorado229
Hawaii9
Iowa632
Kansas114
Massachusetts1
Michigan2
Minnesota615
Nebraska20
New Mexico267
New York48
North Dakota
66Oregon259
Pennsylvania129
Tennessee29
Texas1,293
Vermont6
Wisconsin53
Wyoming285
Washington244
South Dakota
44
West Virginia66
Arkansas0.1
Idaho0.2
Maine0.1
Montana2
New Hampshire0.1
Oklahoma176
Utah0.2
Illinois81
Ohio7
6770 MW as of 12/31/04 Current cost is 4 to 6¢/kWh in best regimes (unsubsidized)
Wind Energy StatusWind Capacity (MW)
Solar Energy Status
• Concentrating Solar Power– Nine parabolic
trough plants – 354 MW capacity– 12-14¢/kWh
• Photovoltaics– 340 MW capacity– Price of power
from grid connected PV systems is 20 to 30¢/kWh
PV systems at the Arizona Public Service facility in Prescott, Arizona
Biomass StatusBiopower• Grid-connected capacity
– 9700 MW direct combustion– 400 MW co-firing
• Biopower electricity prices generally range from 8-12¢/kWh
Biofuels• Biodiesel – 15 million gallons (2002)• Corn ethanol
– 81 commercial plants– 3.4 billion gallons (2004)– ~$1.22/gal
• Cellulosic ethanol*– $2.73/gal
* Not commercially available
Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco Bay Area with baseload capacity, the Tracy Biomass Plant uses wood residues discarded from agricultural and industrial operations.
Factors Inhibiting Pace and Volume of Renewable Energy Market Entrance
• Capital mobilization• Lack of consistent, stable policies• Electricity pricing: valuing externalities• Further technology advances
Mobilizing Capital:Creative Business Partnership Models
• Catalyze entrepreneurs
• Enhance strategic partnering
• Attract new corporate entrants
• Invigorate private equity/venture capital
State Policies are OpeningMarkets for Renewable Energy
Renewable Electricity StandardsNevada: 15% by 2013, solar 5% of annual
Hawaii: 20% by 2020
Texas:2.7% by 2009
California: 20% by 2017
Colorado: 10% by 2015
New Mexico: 10% by 2011
Arizona: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solar
Iowa: 2% by 1999Minnesota: 19% by 2015*
Wisconsin:2.2% by 2011
New York:24% by 2013
Maine:30%by 2000
MA: 4%by 2009
CT: 10% by 2010
RI: 16%by 2019
Pennsylvania:8% by 2020
NJ: 6.5% by 2008Maryland:7.5% by 2019
18 States + D.C.
*Includes requirements adopted in 1994 and 2003 for one utility, Xcel Energy.
Washington D.C:11% by 2022
Western Governors’ AssociationClean and Diversified Energy Initiative
• Western U.S is rich with fossil, hydro and renewable energy resources.
• Goal of 30,000 MW of clean energy by 2015, using solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, clean coal technologies and advanced natural gas technologies.
• Goal to increase the efficiency of energy use by 20% by 2020.
• Meet the West’s generation and transmission needs over the next 25 years.
Create an Electricity Pricing Structure that Values Externalities
• Intangibles have value– Greater value if dealt with in resource
planning– Allow a broader perspective
• Hard to quantify– Has been controversial– No accepted methodology
Wind OutlookTechnology• DOE Wind Program R&D goals
– 3¢/kWh* in class 4+ wind areas onshore
– 5¢/kWh* for offshore systems• New Technology will
– Expand range of feasible sites – Reduce siting risk – Enhance system value
Policy• State-led RPS • Production Tax CreditMarket Drivers• Natural gas prices• Green purchasing * unsubsidized
Arklow Banks Wind FarmThe Irish Sea
Photo: R. Thresher
Boeing 747-200GE WindEnergy3.6 MW Turbine
Solar OutlookTechnology DOE Solar Program goals:• Photovoltaics: 6¢/kWh by
2020• Concentrating solar
power/troughs: 5¢/KWh by 2012
Policy • 1000 MW initiative• Western Governors’
Association 30,000 MW by 2020 initiative
• State RPS with solar set asides
Market Drivers• Peak power prices• Green markets
Solar Photovoltaic ElectricitySolar Photovoltaic Electricity
Solar can supply all electricity for the U.S. using this area (100x100 mi.) in the SW
OR by usinga distributed* approachusing available areas throughoutthe U.S. Average area per Statewould be 17x17 miles.
Area required for solarsystems is 0.40% of thecontinental U.S.
*Vacant land, parking lots,building integrated, etc.
Source: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Cumulative installed PV Peak Power [GWp]
Total World PV Market Sectors/Applications
200
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Meg
aWat
ts
On-GridResidential/CommercialOff-Grid
Central (>100kW)
Data Source: PV News, Paul MaycockVolume 24/No.4, April 2005
PhotovoltaicTechnology Penetration
and Price Experience (Learning) Curve
Biomass Outlook• Technology• DOE Biomass
Program goals:• 5.5¢/kWh by 2010• $1.07/gal bioethanol
by 2020• Policy• 2005 Energy Policy
Act created a renewable fuels standard that reaches 7.5 billion gallons/year by 2012
• Market Drivers• Future outlook for
crude oil prices• Best utilization for
biomass – fuels and/or electricity and/or refinery
The Biorefinery:The Path Ahead
• A diverse feedstock supply that provides 1.3 billion tons of biomass per year
• Equivalent of 2 billion barrels of crude oil per year or
• U.S. domestic petroleum production in 1970
Technologies
Policies Markets• Conventional
energy prices• Green markets
• Incentives & mandates
• High technology• Mass production
The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywww.nrel.gov
Golden, Colorado
Helena L. Chum(303) [email protected]