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Cholera: Next Door?BioQUEST 2012
Case Study Format◦ Learning Objectives◦ Resources
Data Analysis & Visualization◦ Tools◦ Statistics
Assessment
Module Design
In this module, students will:◦ (1) investigate the natural history of Vibrio cholerae, a
pathogenic bacterium of global and historical significance. Use their knowledge of the organism’s biology to predict conditions favorable for epidemics.
◦ (2) compare and contrast cholera outbreaks from multiple locations. Determine whether demographic, environmental, or other variables are associated with an epidemic’s magnitude of impact.
◦ (3) model (or predict or explain) potential modes of disease transmission and/or dynamics of disease spread during an epidemic.
◦ (4) improve foundational skills in: searching and obtaining data available online; evaluating quality of datasets from a variety of sources; and interpreting, analyzing, and visualizing diverse types of data
Learning Objectives:
News & Media http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.p
hp?id=44401&utm_source=catholic.org%2Fhomepage&utm_medium=banner&utm_content=latest%2Bnews - Catholic Online, posted 1/13/12
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/health/haitian-cholera-epidemic-traced-to-first-known-victim.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=cholera%20haiti&st=cse - discovery of first cholera case in Haiti, NYT 1/10/12
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=144929218 - discovery of first cholera case in Haiti
Natural history, symptoms, epidemiology, general information
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs107/en/index.html - WHO
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001348/ - PubMed Health
http://www.cdc.gov/cholera/general/ http://www.cdc.gov/haiticholera/ - CDC
Online Resources:
Accounts, reports of outbreaks http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/cholera/en/index.html -
periodic updates about outbreaks globally Profiles of Countries with Cholera http://www.who.int/cholera/countries/en/index.html - general
information (geographic, economic, environmental) for countries with cholera in their histories
Data http://apps.who.int/ghodata/?vid=2250 - cases, deaths, fatality rates
by country, year http://www.who.int/cholera/statistics/en/index.html - articles compiled
annually with raw data http://www.who.int/gho/epidemic_diseases/cholera/en/index.html -
maps with data for cases, fatalities http://emergency.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/data.asp -
stratified by region and demographics
Online Resources:
Maps http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/sea
rchResults.aspx - WHO Cholera Map Library
http://emergency.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/staticmaps.asp - multiple static maps (distribution of outbreaks, cumulative attack rates, etc)
http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/cholera/atlas.html - interactive http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/CholeraHispaniola/atlas.html - interactive
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/Flash/bt/atlas.html - interactive, multiple filters and resolutions
Online Resources:
http://books.google.com/books?id=LIYaAAAAMAAJ&lpg=PA173&ots=3A_xyGSTMb&dq=Cholera%20epidemic%20map%20of%20Nashville%2C%20Tennessee%2C%201873%20%2F%20Ely%20McClellan.&pg=PP11#v=onepage&q&f=true
Cholera epidemic map of Nashville, Tennessee, 1873 / Ely McClellan.
http://www.nlm.nih.gov/exhibition/cholera/images/a024226.jpg
http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map231_ver5.pdf
Pam American Health OrganizationInteractive map http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/Ch
oleraHispaniola/atlas.html
1) Finding the “RIGHT” parameters a) Sanitation b) Population Density c) Environmental Conditions d) Non availability of Clean water e) Limited Access to health care f) General Awareness of disease spread etc……..
Statistical Analysis
Approach 1) Undergraduate Level a) Study the data set b) Descriptive statistics c) Plot the data d) Use Regression Approach e) Find the optimal model f) Run the model diagnostics
Crunching the Data
Approach 2) Graduate Level a) All above b) Non-normal distribution c) Poisson Modeling c) MLE approach d) Bayesian Model e) Find the optimal model f) Run the model diagnostics
Crunching the Data
Pre/Post-Test Assessment◦ Learning & Thinking Skills
Presentations, Activities, Group Work◦ Science Process Skills
Solving problems, critical thinking, testing hypothesis◦ Attitudes Toward Science
Comfort & confidence◦ Module Content
Background info, mode of action & transmission, data analysis tools
Assessment