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1 BL-Global Flexible Mai 2015
| Date post: | 09-Nov-2015 |
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PowerPoint Presentation
BL-Global Flexible
Mai 2015
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1
Environnement conomique
Freins structurels la croissance
Croissance nominale de lconomie mondiale nettement infrieure au pass
Tendances d(sin)flationnistes: dmographie, technologie, surendettement
Stimulus montaire pour viter dflation + rpression financire: Taux dintrt resteront bas
Situation actuelle sans prcdent dans lhistoire
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Etats-Unis: Croissance nominale du P.I.B.
De plus en plus faible
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Trop de dette
Endettement mondial nettement plus lev quavant la crise financire
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Taux dintrt bas
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Taux dintrt bas
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Risque = ?
1. Volatilit (mark-to-market): les actions sont risques
2. Perte de pouvoir dachat (inflation): les liquidits sont risques
3. Perte durable / permanente dune partie de son capital
faillite : les obligations peuvent tre risques
acheter un prix nettement trop lev: actions et obligations
peuvent tre risques
ne pas supporter la pression motionnelle dun recul important:
les actions sont risques
4. Rater des opportunits (risque de ne pas prendre assez de risque): les liquidits sont risques
Dans un environnement normal il est lgitime de se concentrer sur le risque volatilit (actions plus risques quobligations). Dans lenvironnement actuel, tel nest pas le cas.
RISQUES
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7
General Motors 7,25% 3/7/2013
Risque 3: Illustration
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PX_LAST3908739094391013910839115391223912939136391433915039157391643917139178391853919239199392063921339220392273923439241392483925539262392693927639283392903929739304393113931839325393323933939346393533936039367393743938139388393953940239409394163942339430394373944439451394583946539472394793948639493395003950739514395213952839535395423954939556395633957039577395843959139598396053961239619396263963339640396473965439661396683967539682396893969639703397103971739724397313973839745397523975939766397733978039787397943980139808398153982239829398363984339850398573986439871398783988539892398993990639913399203992739934399413994839955399623996939976399833999039997400044001140018400254003240039400464005340060400674007440081400884009540102401094011640123401304013740144401514015898.34699999999999498.50400000000000599.24500000000000599.94499999999999399.24499.935000000000002100.22699.88797.66599999999999797.80800000000000795.64700000000000697.42499999999999796.11995.87300000000000596.11199999999999596.78600000000000197.08599999999999997.13200000000000597.33799999999999498.12300000000000598.64100000000000598.7497.55200000000000798.11499999999999597.79099999999999797.39799999999999697.01800000000000196.38200000000000594.43399999999999792.8492.20699999999999492.24791.23399999999999590.27700000000000189.91200000000000690.66800000000000691.23600000000000493.7794.62099999999999595.87900000000000596.92700000000000795.25100000000000595.0794.1290.89900000000000186.7185.79600000000000690.32599999999999389.09199999999999990.00799999999999689.33100000000000389.13488.0982.57899999999999482.04399999999999782.92499999999999784.3783.75684.35200000000000484.09900000000000482.81499999999999880.25499999999999576.65600000000000676.54200000000000280.8181.97299999999999982.09600000000000482.41700000000000283.11799999999999585.42499999999999785.70199999999999886.02100000000000185.94899999999999885.4882.3582.2783.1368.27899999999999657.160.63761.28199999999999664.35399999999999955.47500000000000154.09599999999999757.48400000000000255.01299999999999854.87400000000000254.86960.16100000000000158.52100000000000147.44100000000000340.1490000000000013329.40800000000000130.83299999999999837.63000000000000335.40200000000000127.01300000000000219.48300000000000127.52427.5723.907242731.52499999999999930.41199999999999927.528.65299999999999929.00325.41700000000000222.96099999999999923.437999999999999191825.528.96818.512911.5982.53.52.998000000000000212.5131111.49900000000000111.49799999999999912.49799999999999911.512.512.497999999999999121514141515141515151413.7514141514141414
Cisco Systems
Risque 3: Illustration
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Plus de la moiti de tous les emprunts dEtat dans le monde offrent un rendement infrieur 1%.
La recherche de rendement a cr un march obligataire risqu. Le diffrentiel de taux offert par des emprunts de qualit infrieure est historiquement bas. La situation financire de nombreuses socits sest dtriore.
Privilgier les actions aux obligations. Celles-ci ont cependant dj enregistr une revalorisation considrable au cours des 3 dernires annes.
Priorit aux entreprises de qualit. Les atouts de ces entreprises sont encore plus importants lorsque la croissance conomique est faible (gains de parts de march) et les taux dintrt bas (multiples de valorisation plus levs).
Les dividendes sont importants et reprsenteront une grande partie du rendement des actions dans les annes venir.
O investir ?
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Taux obligataires sont bas
Rendement de lemprunt dEtat 10 ans (mi-Mai 2015)
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GreeceNew ZealandAustraliaPortugalUSAUKItalySpainCanadaNorwayIrelandBelgiumFranceNetherlandsDenmarkSwedenAustriaFinlandGermanyJapanSwitzerland0.105399999999999993.6400000000000002E-22.9399999999999999E-22.3800000000000002E-22.24E-20.021.84E-21.8200000000000001E-21.7899999999999999E-21.7299999999999999E-21.35E-29.5999999999999992E-39.5999999999999992E-38.5000000000000006E-38.2000000000000007E-38.0000000000000002E-38.0000000000000002E-37.3000000000000001E-36.7000000000000002E-34.4000000000000003E-36.9999999999999999E-4
Actions restent attrayantes compares aux obligations
Source : Morgan Stanley
MSCI Europe: Rendement du dividende Taux 10 ans#
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Actions restent attrayantes compares aux obligations
#
Les socits rachtent leurs titres
#
Tendances dmographique favorisent la recherche de revenus rcurrents
TENDANCES DEMOGRAPHIQUES: PRESERVATION DU CAPITAL ET REVENUS RECURRENTS
AGE: 25-49 (%)
AGE: 50-74 (%)
PRESERVATION DU CAPITAL / REVENUS RECURRENTS
#
Quelle: Morgan Stanley
Dans un environnement de taux bas, ces revenus doivent venir des actions
REVENUS : DIVIDENDES
REVENUS : INTERETS
#
Contrairement aux cours boursiers, les dividendes ne sont pas volatils
DIVIDENDE DE NESTLE (EN CHF)
#
17
37987383533871839083394483981440179405444090941275416400.720.80.91.041.221.41.61.851.952.04999999999999982.15
Portefeuille diversifi :
Actions comme cur du portefeuille
Couverture partielle du risque actions pour grer la volatilit
Emprunts dEtat long terme comme couverture du risque rcession/dflation
Or comme assurance contre une perte de contrle des autorits montaires
BL-GLOBAL FLEXIBLE : PHILOSOPHIE DINVESTISSEMENT
#
18
Actions : 77 %
Entreprises de qualit des prix raisonnables
Dividendes
Allocation sectorielle dfensive
Couverture partielle travers futures sur des indices (26 %)
BL-GLOBAL FLEXIBLE : ALLOCATION DACTIFS
#
19
Allocation par rgion
Allocation sectorielle
(1): 16% couverts
(2): 11% couverts
BL-Global Flexible: Allocation dactifs
#
Europe (15% Zone euro) (1)Etats-Unis (2)Asie (Japon 5%)Autres0.350.210.180.03SantBiens de consommation durableTechnologieLuxeConglomrats AsieIndustrie / EnergieAutres0.150.080.230.090.060.097.0000000000000007E-2
BL-Global Flexible: Allocation sectorielle du portefeuille actions
#
BL-Global Flexible: Allocation sectorielle du portefeuille actions
#
Entreprise de qualit dans un march baissier: KAO (Japon)
#
Kao (TR - Dividends incl.)32509325403256832599326293266032690327213275232782328133284332874329053293332964329943302533055330863311733147331783320833239332703329833329333593339033420334513348233512335433357333604336353366433695337253375633786338173384833878339093393933970340013402934060340903412134151341823421334243342743430434335343663439434425344553448634516345473457834608346393466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387490-1.7044999999999999-9.6591000000000005-3.7443-5.4530000000000003-3.1747999999999998-4.88343.664.79910000000000013.32390000000000011.6113999999999999-0.10121.0405-0.1012-4.6680000000000001-22.7011-16.975300000000001-6.0961999999999996-8.3864999999999998-14.685-23.273700000000002-28.770499999999998-19.112300000000001-26.356000000000002-27.563300000000002-28.770499999999998-20.319600000000001-20.675699999999999-23.097799999999999-21.886800000000001-29.153099999999998-21.886800000000001-27.9421-19.283000000000001-19.889900000000001-25.9589-25.9589-29.600200000000001-32.027799999999999-32.270600000000002-32.270600000000002-27.5764-30.929400000000001-32.270600000000002-28.247-32.807000000000002-29.908999999999999-27.213200000000001-23.843499999999999-21.8216-25.865300000000001-22.8325-10.648199999999999-14.0328-19.448-14.0328-16.063500000000001-17.755700000000001-14.357200000000001-21.834-20.474599999999999-15.7166-17.755700000000001-15.3428-16.025500000000001-17.390899999999998-18.073699999999999-19.4391-18.756399999999999-19.746300000000002-21.118200000000002-23.861899999999999-22.49-25.233799999999999-27.977499999999999-28.937799999999999-29.627700000000001-29.627700000000001-29.627700000000001-28.247900000000001-22.038499999999999-14.725300000000001-14.032-13.338800000000001-11.258900000000001-6.4058999999999999-8.4856999999999996-7.3418000000000001-2.46499999999999990.321699999999999993.1084000000000001-1.0717000000000001-10.128500000000001-2.6739999999999999-6.1749999999999998-7.5754000000000001-5.4748000000000001-10.376099999999999-7.5754000000000001-4.98470000000000014.16511.20309999999999911.906925.27949999999999925.27949999999999923.69590000000000218.74810000000000120.161732.88470000000000226.52319999999999920.86860000000000124.22599999999999938.06830000000000146.94160000000000151.91069999999999968.94740000000000254.39520000000000355.31799999999999868.14239999999999566.00499999999999581.67929999999999867.43000000000000768.85490000000000186.880300000000005116.5382135.83369999999999142.9802127.9726122.25539999999999115.8236128.0129117.2576109.0119110.0874109.0119125.86190000000001136.6515135.21279999999999133.0549133.0549110.7565113.0582136.1696145.55860000000001139.7808110.89149999999999111.6138129.09180000000001127.6418124.7419124.7419111.69240000000001118.9421113.7223111.173791.51269999999999598.43040000000000679.13349999999999883.13849999999999378.25969999999999583.750299999999996112.6671102.052197.65959999999999898.757797.659599999999998106.125593.61069999999999491.77030000000000679.99169999999999483.67249999999999977.41519999999999961.11820000000000262.97010000000000265.56279999999999667.41469999999999662.97010000000000276.007768.54970000000000166.68529999999999862.58339999999999768.92260000000000371.90579999999999978.69259999999999997.83820000000000190.70550000000000197.462800000000001107.22329999999999101.967684.24859999999999685.00520000000000287.65359999999999798.24689999999999782.35689999999999687.65359999999999787.95619999999999584.90619999999999891.76869999999999599.39369999999999595.962500000000006100.1562115.02500000000001113.4863116.9483143.10509999999999Topix (TR - Dividends incl.)325093254032568325993262932660326903272132752327823281332843328743290532933329643299433025330553308633117331473317833208332393327033298333293335933390334203345133482335123354333573336043363533664336953372533756337863381733848338783390933939339703400134029340603409034121341513418234213342433427434304343353436634394344253445534486345163454734578346083463934669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874904.57359999999999993.82684.75680000000000015.57859999999999987.64143.918099999999999911.534410.45170000000000114.64509999999999914.23910000000000120.04680000000000122.24579999999999916.14498.8462999999999994-5.4962999999999997-6.40933.3393999999999999-0.57999999999999996-4.4322999999999997-16.251799999999999-33.3504-21.2517-29.9114-26.440100000000001-27.4116-16.8309-16.389299999999999-16.699400000000001-16.642099999999999-22.8262-21.124500000000001-26.513500000000001-22.2666-19.922499999999999-26.5474-27.252500000000001-30.805299999999999-34.0488-39.817500000000003-44.1051-41.607900000000001-47.552599999999998-48.271799999999999-41.218000000000004-44.396099999999997-45.740600000000001-43.855200000000004-44.520899999999997-44.8934-45.515799999999999-39.251100000000001-31.235900000000001-30.565200000000001-32.9559-29.5762-28.1614-30.825099999999999-30.638999999999999-41.547199999999997-38.748199999999997-30.662700000000001-30.546299999999999-33.213200000000001-31.497699999999998-28.111799999999999-28.485299999999999-30.0183-29.883700000000001-32.424700000000001-32.090200000000003-34.8399-33.164499999999997-37.244199999999999-42.182899999999997-43.659599999999998-42.628300000000003-45.972799999999999-48.424100000000003-42.4285-38.479399999999998-37.839100000000002-39.006399999999999-35.930999999999997-31.791-30.256599999999999-32.5214-28.947600000000001-25.668199999999999-27.048500000000001-25.6555-31.2117-32.981400000000001-29.14-32.491799999999998-31.9558-35.942599999999999-40.2271-39.426400000000001-39.896700000000003-36.923299999999998-34.921199999999999-31.9831-32.408999999999999-37.481499999999997-39.023000000000003-43.906700000000001-44.998199999999997-48.375599999999999-44.3093-44.081099999999999-44.711100000000002-45.979399999999998-46.043599999999998-45.641300000000001-44.241-51.106999999999999-53.709099999999999-54.062100000000001-49.273600000000002-51.767400000000002-50.066400000000002-50.288600000000002-43.506700000000002-40.390099999999997-42.168599999999998-36.853900000000003-34.055399999999999-35.025700000000001-32.637900000000002-30.086600000000001-26.613700000000001-22.994599999999998-23.628599999999999-23.127300000000002-23.4587-26.018899999999999-31.671099999999999-28.5764-34.787799999999997-32.1646-33.817300000000003-37.903500000000001-38.679600000000001-42.2209-41.472700000000003-44.106499999999997-42.237699999999997-38.203699999999998-40.717300000000002-41.152200000000001-46.156599999999997-50.068199999999997-53.551099999999998-51.918999999999997-52.331800000000001-53.139299999999999-55.877499999999998-53.958300000000001-51.621899999999997-50.623600000000003-48.885800000000003-53.220300000000002-55.952300000000001-57.011000000000003-57.8003-60.494399999999999-59.095799999999997-61.345999999999997-62.3568-62.456899999999997-63.622300000000003-63.226799999999997-61.324199999999998-58.278300000000002-56.6158-53.715499999999999-52.77-51.631-53.649900000000002-51.5931-51.414400000000001-49.779899999999998-45.002699999999997-44.671999999999997-46.830599999999997-44.499000000000002-46.843899999999998-47.288899999999998-48.3673-49.148000000000003-48.518599999999999-46.113999999999997-46.2759-44.795200000000001-44.202100000000002-46.6678-45.9846-44.4148-43.101100000000002-39.962600000000002-33.029899999999998-31.490300000000001-27.1494-20
Obligations : 12 %
Emprunts dEtat amricain long terme avec couverture du risque de change sur le dollar
Emprunts de qualit en BRL, MXN offrant un rapport risque/rendement favorable (diversification devise bien rmunre)
BL-GLOBAL FLEXIBLE : ALLOCATION DACTIFS
#
24
Taux 10 ans reflte faiblesse de la croissance nominale
#
Or : 7,5 %
Assurance
Monnaie (qui ne peut pas tre arbitrairement cre par une banque centrale)
Situation offre / demande reste favorable long terme
Sous forme dentreprises aurifres :
effet de levier
changement de stratgie (rentabilit plutt que croissance de la production)
priorit aux socits de redevances
BL-GLOBAL FLEXIBLE : ALLOCATION DACTIFS
#
26
Or
#
27
Evolution du prix lor
Or
#
40179401864019340200402074021440221402284023540242402494025640263402704027740284402914029840305403124031940326403334034040347403544036140368403754038240389403964040340410404174042440431404384044540452404594046640473404804048740494405014050840515405224052940536405434055040557405644057140578405854059240599406064061340620406274063440641406484065540662406694067640683406904069740704407114071840725407324073940746407534076040767407744078140788407954080240809408164082340830408374084440851408584086540872408794088640893409004090740914409214092840935409424094940956409634097040977409844099140998410054101241019410264103341040410474105441061410684107541082410894109641103411104111741124411314113841145411524115941166411734118041187411944120141208412154122241229412364124341250412574126441271412784128541292412994130641313413204132741334413414134841355413624136941376413834139041397414044141141418414254143241439414464145341460414674147441481414884149541502415094151641523415304153741544415514155841565415724157941586415934160041607416144162141628416354164241649416564166341670416774168441691416984170541712417194172641733417404174741754417614176841775417824178941796418034181041817418244183141838418454185241859418664187341880418874189441901419084191541922419294193641943419504195741964419714197841985419924199942006420134202042027420344204142048420554206242069420764208342090420974210442111421184212542132421391097.321138.251130.931093.21080.84999999999991066.31093.38000000000011119.21117.59999999999991134.65000000000011101.900000000000111071107.51119.811621137.40000000000011157.59999999999991179.21208.40000000000011233.181177.09999999999991214.38000000000011219.90000000000011226.71256.81255.59999999999991211.59999999999991211.599999999999911931189.211811205.40000000000011215.51227.81238.09999999999991246.751246.251274.31295.951319.11346.741368.41328.451359.41393.651368.751352.931363.751414.0713861375.451381.471420.781369.571361.721342.681336.751348.851357.051389.531410.61430.91417.451418.91429.741428.81474.931486.71506.851563.71495.61495.021512.31536.41541.951531.651539.451502.651487.781544.151593.551601.271627.881663.81746.91852.11827.951882.881855.71811.881656.81623.971637.851680.731642.381743.751754.651788.681723.951683.531746.751711.61598.951606.351563.71617.9516391666.651739.071726.2517221723.381772.451712.61713.6516601661.91668.351636.431658.151642.931662.751642.221579.41592.991573.031624.11593.451627.11572.451597.41583.751589.681584.51622.91603.481620.21616.051670.551692.011735.651770.41773.11772.11780.61754.481721.751711.31678.11731.181713.7517531714.81704.051696.11657.251655.851655.651662.81684.31658.71667.451667.21610.11581.41576.231578.81591.951608.581598.751581.1514831403.851462.091470.751448.21359.551386.651387.921383.051390.741296.40000000000011234.571223.21285.71296.09999999999991333.31311.751314.41376.871397.751395.151391.91326.391326.051336.651310.81272.181316.251350.81316.21288.59999999999991290.21243.63000000000011253.491229.051238.81203.31213.34999999999991237.011248.451254.051270.071244.551267.271318.691324.281326.441339.981383.051334.71295.271303.64000000000011318.421294.31303.21299.61999999999991288.791293.461292.561249.731253.251276.89000000000011314.851316.181320.551338.621311.11307.15000000000011293.331310.951304.831280.081287.811268.921229.71215.71218.38000000000011191.34999999999991223.08999999999991238.321230.90000000000011173.481177.981188.751201.551167.41000000000011192.511222.51196.349999999999911961189.231222.521280.451294.09999999999991283.771233.921229.431201.951213.221167.191158.551182.63000000000011198.751202.86999999999991207.571204.271179.441178.58999999999991188.3800000000001
Gold
Indice des mines dor
Click to edit Master text styles
Second level
Third level
Fourth level
Fifth level
#
409094091440921409284093540942409494095640963409704097740984409914099841005410124101941026410334104041047410544106141068410754108241089410964110341110411174112441131411384114541152411594116641173411804118741194412014120841215412224122941236412434125041257412644127141278412854129241299413064131341320413274133441341413484135541362413694137641383413904139741404414114141841425414324143941446414534146041467414744148141488414954150241509415164152341530415374154441551415584156541572415794158641593416004160741614416214162841635416424164941656416634167041677416844169141698417054171241719417264173341740417474175441761417684177541782417894179641803418104181741824418314183841845418524185941866418734188041887418944190141908419154192241929419364194341950419574196441971419784198541992419994200642013420204202742034420414204842055420624206942076420834209042097421044211142118421254213251.4353.3554.0552.1857.1456.4454.4954.1556.4654.7953.2449.9349.7649.5446.247.546.1246.844.0542.4241.6244.9146.5846.3346.9244.5844.7744.4342.3141.72500000000000143.1342.8644.8545.3447.5747.9450.4653.8654.8153.6953.6551.6651.7351.2449.7650.6746.4748.7447.5545.93010000000000346.4845.1844.9345.3345.445.1141.9242.2242.3239.8937.9337.1137.1137.33800000000000138.15999999999999737.8535.0632.2228.5929.4629.6929.8126.3827.529.499928.9928.1224.924.4923.4224.3725.8627.57799999999999925.5926.4729.7930.1428.1328.0125.6325.7625.1724.1923.0524.3826.3224.0824.2824.1322.2522.2820.6621.1120.5321.2521.8322.0123.3323.6723.4823.9126.3526.5325.8826.1827.7325.5224.124.2624.2223.5724.4624.3223.7323.4223.3122.522.6424.1125.8225.9826.527.3226.93990000000000226.8226.226.7826.8226.126.6925.0723.8822.6621.9820.6320.7720.6920.4717.2118.6419.0219.87518.3618.7518.64999999999999918.5318.23999999999999818.94000000000000120.7122.1621.7422.2921.3321.2620.4521.2818.57999999999999818.0719.32999999999999818.8418.98999999999999819.4519.7219.3620.2719.97
SOCIETES DE REDEVANCES
Modle dentreprise suprieur:
Peu dexposition au risque oprationnel
Potentiel de hausse li lexpansion de la production
Gnration de cash-flow excdentaire importante
=> exposition lor risque plus faible
Or
Click to edit Master text styles
Second level
Third level
Fourth level
Fifth level
#
Avant couverture
Aprs couverture
BL-Global Flexible: Allocation devises
#
31
USDEURCHFCADJPYGBPAutres monnaies asiatiquesAutres0.385000000000000010.180.127.4999999999999997E-20.050.068.5000000000000006E-24.4999999999999998E-2USDEURCHFCADJPYGBPAutres monnaies asiatiquesAutres0.1550.430.127.4999999999999997E-23.5000000000000003E-24.4999999999999998E-28.5000000000000006E-25.5E-2
* min (achats, ventes) / moyenne des actifs nets
** under restricted scheme
Donnes techniques
#
BLI - Banque de Luxembourg Investments
7, boulevard du Prince Henri - L-1724 Luxembourg
Phone: (+352) 26 26 99-1
Fax: (+352) 26 26 99 33 33
E-mail: [email protected]
Guy WAGNER
Chief Investment Officer
Phone: (+352) 26 26 99 - 3317
E-mail:[email protected]
Contacts
Matthieu BOACHON
Sales Manager
Phone: (+352) 26 26 99 - 3700
E-mail:[email protected]
#
33
BL Global Flexible
VolumeEUR 1 426 mio
Date de lancement06/04/2005
DeviseEUREUREUR
PartsABBI
Type dinvestisseurRetailRetail
Institutionnel:
investissement minimum
1000000
Cap/DisDisCapCap
Commission de gestion1%1%0,50%
Charges courantes1,20%1,21%0,67%
Turnover (2014) *33%
ISINLU0211339816LU0211340665LU0379366346
WKNA0D9HVA0D9HWA0Q678
BloombergBLGLFLX LXBLGLFLCLXBLGLFLI LX
Agrment
Allemagne (transparence fiscale), Autriche, Belgique, Danemark, Finlande, France, Italie,
Luxembourg, Norvge, Pays-Bas, Royaum-Uni, Singapour**, Espagne, Sude, Suisse
