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Black Sea region: Development of sunseed production and crushing
Sergey Feofilov
UkrAgroConsultPrepared for the Second Seminar
“Policy Options for the Ukrainian Sunflower Sector”April 2005
GDP growth rates(Persentage change in real terms)
-8-6-4-202468
10121416
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Bulgaria Ukraine Romania Russia Kazakhstan
2
Black Sea Region: Sunflower Yields, MT/ha
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06*
Ukraine Russia Romania Bulgaria Moldova
3
Black Sea Region: total sunseed production and crushing, KMT
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06*
Production Crushing
4
Black Sea Region: sunseed production, KMT
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06*
Ukraine Russia Romania Bulgaria Moldova
5
Black Sea Region: sunoil exports, MT
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
Ukraine Russia Romania
6
Sunoil production and export, MMT
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
Total sunoil production in Ukraine and Russia Sunoil production in Argentina
Total sunoil export from Ukraine and Russia Sunoil export from Argentina
7
* forecast
Ukraine: Forecast of the 2005 grain and sunseed production
2005* 2004
UkrAgroConsult Official statistics
Wheat 17 250 16 529 17 518
Barley 8 340 10 615 11 069
Corn 5 150 5 300 8 793
Rye 1 135 1 398 1 592
Oats 920 997 1 006
Feed peas 827 603 600
Other 1 543 865 1 140
Total grain 35 165 36 307 41 718
Sunseed 3 800 – 4 000 3 395 3 052
8
New drivers in ag production in the Black Sea countries
9
Investments in the agrarian sector
Behavior of farmers was modified
Development of export aimed infrastructure of the market
Currency exchange factor
Increase in the government support
Investments in the agrarian sector
10
Growth of input usage
Lower dependence on weather
Stabilization of production
Increase in grain export potential
Ukraine: Wholesale prices for heavy fuel
11
Black Sea Region: Main operators of sunseed/sunoil market
Ukraine / Украина Russia / Россия
Зерноторговая компания Русагро
Каргилл Солнечные продукты
Бунге Астон
Евротек Юг Руси
Запорожский МЖК ОГО
Одесский МЖК Нижегородский МЖК
Пологовский МЭЗ WJ
Кернел Групп Эфко
12
BULGARIA
Stockholder Edible oil producers
Bunge – 40% of the market
Unirea SA in Iasi (Eastern Romania)
Muntenia SA in Buchapest
Interoil SA in Oradea (Western Romania)
Argus (Romanian) – 20% of the market Agrus factory in Constanta
Cargill – 17% of the market Olpo Ulei SA in Podari
Olpo Ulei SA in Craiova
Suntory Agrochemical Agricover SA
ROMANIA
Stockholder Edible oil producers
Bunge – 30% of the market Kaliakra in Dobrich
Papas Olio – 23% of the market Oil plant in Yambol
Biser Oliva – 18% of the market Oil plant in Balchik
Niva – 10% of the market Plant in Stara Zagora
Zlatna Trakia – 3% of the market Plant in Kostinbrod
13
Government support to the Ag Sector
14
Cheaper credits and insurance
Direct payments per hectare
Large investment in export logistics
Exchange rate of USD to UAH
15
Exchange rate of USD to RUR
16
New markets
17
WTO joining
Closer to consumers and lower freight rates
Ukraine: Sunoil export in 2003/04 season
EU 25 36%
Others 10%
Switzerland 26%
CIS 15%
N. Africa & Near East 13%
18
Ukraine: Sunoil export in 2004/05 season (September – January)
N. Africa & Near East 23%
Others 1% EU 25
43%
Switzerland 12%
CIS 21%
19
Ukraine: Sunoil export in 2003/04 season
EU 25 36%
Others 10%
Switzerland 26%
CIS 15%
N. Africa & Near East 13%
20
Argentina: Sunoil export in 2003/04 season
EU 25 29%
N. Africa & Near East 16%
S. & N. America 18%
Russia 3%
China 5%
Others 18%
India 12%
21
Argentina: Sunoil export in 2004/05 season (September - January)
Others 23%
EU 25 27%
N. Africa & Near East 21%S. & N. America
19%
Russia 2%
India4%
China 4%
22
Ukraine: Crushing margins, $/T
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
09.2
003
09.2
003
10.2
003
10.2
003
10.2
003
11.2
003
11.2
003
12.2
003
12.2
003
01.2
004
01.2
004
02.2
004
02.2
004
03.2
004
03.2
004
04.2
004
04.2
004
05.2
004
05.2
004
06.2
004
06.2
004
07.2
004
07.2
004
08.2
004
08.2
004
09.2
004
09.2
004
10.2
004
10.2
004
11.2
004
11.2
004
12.2
004
12.2
004
01.2
005
01.2
005
02.2
005
02.2
005
03.2
005
Domestic operations
23