www.time4education.comTriumphant Institute of

Management Education P Ltd

Nyayapati Gautam

BMC Elections

BMC 2012

• Victory of the Saffron Alliance• Uddhav Thackeray on a firm

footing.• Raj Thackeray – A King Maker?• Prithviraj Chavan • Citizen’s Candidates

BMC 2012

• A commonly held view is that Congress-NCP performance was substantially affected by rebellion/infighting lack of co-ordination.

• In fact this appears to be only a partial explanation of the final performance.

Trends

• 2002– INC + NCP got 38-39% votes.

• 2007 – INC-10.22 lakhs votes (26.6%) of votes and

the NCP had polled 4.28 lakh votes (11.1%). (37.7%)

– Assumption: INC + NCP = 38-40% of the votes

• 2012 (44L more total votes) – INC + NCP has polled only 13 lakh votes

approx. – Effectively, the alliance has LOST 1.5 lakh

votes despite the total number of votes going up by 6 lakh votes.

– In percentage terms the votes have fallen from 37.7 % in the 2007 election to apprx. 29% in the 2012 elections.

Trends

• This is a 7-8 % point swing away on a base of 38% points or a loss of 1 in 5 voter approx. This is a very alarming number and needs to be addressed with urgency.

• Exact reasons for this fall difficult to pick.– Most commonly cited reasons such as:

• Sena’s better connect at the local level• Ability to mobilise votes in elections• Infighting among congress factions

are not unique to 2012

SP

• The performance of the Samajwadi Party is along expected lines.

• In 2002 and 2007 they had won 10+ and 7 respectively

• In 2012 they have won 9 seats. • The SP is able to get about 4 % of

votes. • Its support is somewhat concentrated

in the Mankhurd/Shivajinagar belt (from where they have the sitting MLA, Abu Azmi) and parts of Kurla from where his family contests for the municipal council.

RPI

• The RPI has lost out in the alliance with the Sena.

• It lost all the three seats that it held in 2007: – 2 were wrested by the congress – 1 by the BRP (Prakash Ambedkar). – They were able to win one seat in

Dharavi making it a net loss of 2 from 2007.

MNS

• The MNS has made significant strides in the Dalit dominated areas of Ramabai Nagar, Kamraj Nagar and Kannamwar Nagar winning three seats.

• This has clearly been at the cost of the NCP and Congress.

• It has also put up a very good show in the Colaba segment where it stood second in two seats out of which one it lost by only 20 votes.

BJP

• The Malabar hill constituency (an erstwhile safe seat for Congress) has seen a dramatic fall in performance with all its candidates losing.

• BJP has made inroads into this area. • This is again likely to be due to a

general shift of the people with the Malabar hill profile to the BJP from the congress.

Results

Prithviraj Chavan

– Father's Name : Late Shri D.R. Chavan

– Educational Qualifications :B.E. (Hons.), M.S. (M.E.) Educated at B.I.T.S., Pilani (Rajasthan) University of California, Berkeley (U.S.A.)

– Profession :Engineer, Industrialist, Political and Social Worker

– Literary, Artistic and Scientific Accomplishments :Articles on computer science; engineering design; contribution to research in computerisation of Indian languages

Prithviraj Chavan

– Positions Held :1991-96 Member, Consultative Committee, Ministry of Science and Technology, Electronics,Atomic Energy 1992-93 Member, Standing Committee on Science and Technology 1994-96 Member, Standing Committee on Finance and Planning Member, Standing Committee on Rural and Urban Development 1995-96 Member, Committee on Public Undertakings 1995-96 Member, Committee on Subordinate Legislation 1996-97 Member, Public Accounts Committee Member, Standing Committee on Energy Member, Consultative Committee, Ministry of Finance June 1997 onwards Special Invitee, Consultative Committee, Ministry of Planning and Programme Implementation and Science and Technology

BMC 2012– The rebels who won from congress (Ward 105 –

Mangesh Pawar, Ward 155 – Lalitha Annamalai, Ward 180- Vishnu Gaekwad) are not substantially higher than earlier elections. NCP had one rebel Vijay Tandel who beat the official nominee Abdul Rashi Malik (Nawab Malik’s brother).

– These Rebels put together polled about 26000 votes. Some rebels like Tejinder Tiwana in ward 31 polled significant votes (4500) but the official congress candidate still managed to win. Rohidas Lokhande Polled 5257 votes in ward 204 more and stood second while official congress candidates Samir Chavan stood third

– 2007 also had 2-3 rebels winning (Rehbar khan in ward 97 and a couple in the Mankhurd /Shivajinagar/anushakti nagar areas).

Citizens’ Candidates

• The 2007 BMC election gave Mumbai its first citizens' corporator - Adolf D’Souza (Juhu)

• Citizens' groups fielded 79 candidates this time, but only one managed to sail through

• An analysis of 2012 voting pattern data shows citizens' candidates got an average of 300-500 votes. – Candidates who contested from Mumbai 227

polled an average of 200-300 votes– Loksatta candidates secured between 500-

600 votes – Mumbai Nagrik Manch and Mumbai

Nagriksatta candidates won less than 400 votes.

Citizens’ Candidates

• Voters preferred parties over citizens' candidates – Juhu's ward no 63 elected Adolf D'Souza

in 2007– D’ Souza defeated INC candidate

Somshankar Sharma by a slender margin of 642 votes.

– This year, Vijay Thakre, Loksatta candidate from the ward, polled 2,964 votes and finished 4/5

– He lost to the BJP's Dilip Patel (5,133).

• Infighting– Ward 182: Agnelo Fernandes (Mumbai

227), Joseph Gaikwad (Mumbai Nagrikmanch) and Herman Dias (Mumbai Nagriksatta)