BMF workshop presentation:

An overview of the adaptation process and resources that can help you to adapt

Paul Buckley and Julian Wright

Set up in 2005 to transfer science to decision makers

25 organisations, mostly across UK and devolved governments, agencies, science organisations and NGOs

Work with 100+ scientists to produce authoritative reports

Includes ports / shipping; marine recreation and tourism

New adaptation work to bridge gap between climate impacts knowledge and capacity of organisations to respond

Work closely with EA climate ready

Introduction to MCCIP

In October 2011, Environment Agency took over the role of providing advice and support to businesses and public sector organisations in England to help them adapt to a changing climate: Climate Ready

Climate Ready provides:

Core information (generic advice and support)

Theme-specific support for 7 themes

Aim to work with and through others to embed adaptation

Introduction to Climate Ready

The BMF states that the...

Climate change will affect the quality of the natural environment and BMF would like to ensure that its members are fully aware of the issues.

Whilst climate change is unlikely to be your main business driver, when combined with other economic and social drivers it could be an increasingly important issue.

We want to help you take a balanced, pragmatic view of climate change impacts, exposing issues you may not have considered and alleviating concerns in others.

Focus here on adapting to climate change impacts, rather than reducing emissions

Why does climate change matter?

“...future of the recreational boating industry really does rely on the quality of the natural environment to retain and encourage people to take part in all water based recreational activities”

A few reasons why people in the industry care

Climate change and its implications for business

Adapting to a changing climate workshop

Next steps

Our role...is to help you consider climate change risks and opportunities, both to expose issues and alleviate concerns in other areas.

Ultimately up to you as managers to take ownership of issues as you see fit

Workshop outline

Climate change and its implications for business

Adapting to a changing climate workshop

Next steps

Year

Global temperatures are rising…

Changes are set to continue…

Hot 2003 European summer: human activities have doubled the risk

observationsMedium-High emissions (modelled)

European summer temperatures

Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre

This type of summer could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s

East Midlands 90% probability levelMedium emissions

Change in temperature of the hottest day

Summer Winter

Change in average summer and winter rainfallMedium emissions by 2050s

14

Increased winter flooding

Risks to urban drainage

Severe transport link disruption

Risks to Infrastructure

North West central estimate

Medium Emissions

But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North

Intense winter rainfall

© UKCIP 2011

Seasonal increase in degrees C from present to 2080s – Medium emission

Less directly relevant than warmer air temperatures

BUT

Could improve conditions for non-native nuisance species such as sea squirts spoiling built structures

Change in average sea surface temperature

Sea level rise

16

Increased coastal erosion

Increased coastal flooding

Risk to infrastructure

Changes are relative to 1961-90

But, also modelled more extreme scenarios that give rises of up to 6ft (1.9 metres) by the end of the century (High++ scenario) (London)

Sea level rise

Hotter, drier summers

Increase in heatwaves / hot days

Warmer, wetter winters

More heavy rain events

Other marine / coastal variablesSea level rise 10s of cm in coming decades

Largest sea temperature increase in autumn in SE

Storms more uncertain but could be fewer more severe storms

Summary of expected climate changes in the UK

Increased/decreased productivity

Changing markets/demand for service

Effects on reputation

Disruption/loss of business continuity

Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs

Health and safety concerns

Increased / decreased sales

31% of UK companies significantly affected by weather in the past year (Ipsos MORI, 2010)

What are the potential impacts for business in general...

How is weather already affecting this industry

Recent windstorms / surge events in the UK and Europe have...

• Damaged / destroyed equipment (cables, access bridges, pontoons)

• Led to increased insurance claims at some sites (and premiums...)

• Piled yachts up against each other

• Cut off access to boats

• Breached sea defences leading to damage through inundation

• Damaged reputation through reduced customer confidence

Future climate change impacts on the industry

Increased participation in marine leisure activities

Added pressure to infrastructure from more use

Increased risk of collisions / congestion

Non-natives fouling structures / boats

Droughts = water restrictions / more hosepipe bans

Changes in sediment supply

Warmer, drier summers

Dredging / fill required for sites and navigation

ImpactsVulnerability of site and access due to flooding

Risk of overtopping quays / defences with surges

Closures from high tides / heavy rain

Damage / disruption = higher insurance premiums

Wave height increase affecting safety

Damage to boats stored out of season with winter

storms

Events

Storms / Heavy rain

Sea Level Rise

Future climate change impacts on the industry

Hotter, drier summers

Milder, wetter winters

Greater proportion of rain

in heavy downpours

Rising sea level

Trends

Physical im

pacts (flooding)

Consequences for society (travel disruption)

Events

Heat waves

Droughts

Heavy rain

Cold snaps

Storms

Negative consequences for businesses

DisruptionInsurance CostsH&SReputation

Positive opportunities

ReputationMarket leaderNew products and services

Adaptation can alter the chain of events

Working with UKCIP, Felixstowe Port pre-empted legal obligations and undertook a climate risk assessment in 2008, which identified capacity building actions. This resulted in:

The incorporation of climate risk into flood management and business continuity plans

Further examination of the current high wind thresholds and wind agreement (key threat)

Maintaining a watching brief on the latest information on climate change of relevance to the port

Brighton Marina commissioned HR Wallingford to model impacts of waves and water level on their sea defences.

This identified future options to reduce the threats to theirbreakwaters over the next 120 years.

Examples of adaptation in ports and marinas

Climate change and its implications for business

Adapting to a changing climate workshop

Next steps

Based on UKCIP adaptation wizard

The adaptation process

Working session 1 (20 mins)Why are you concerned about adapting to climate change? (motivation; drivers; incentives)

What do you want to achieve by working through this process?

What is the scope and scale of your assessment?

What are your timescales of interest?

Who needs to be involved?

What difficulties might you face and how might these be overcome?

Discuss collectively and capture outputs

Outcomes: An idea of what you want to achieve and what resources will be required.

Step 1: Scope, objectives, outcomes

Weather type Impact Business consequences

Trigger point? Response

Adequate? Source

Consider one weather type per row such as heavy rain, heatwave, storm cold snapHigh windsHigh tide

e.g. flooding of local area or premises, damage to property, restricted access to site, disruption to supply chain, etc.

This is the most important column as it identifies the consequences you are trying to avoid/promote

e.g. repair/ replace/ maintenance/ insurance costs, lost/ gained customers, lost/ gained sales, H&S issues, affect on reputation or declining/ increasing productivity

ie. the point above which an impact occurs

e.g. a windspeed, rainfall intensity or temperature or the duration of a disruption

e.g. staff worked extra hours, people worked from home, alternative premises used. Afterwards: advice sought, suppliers changed, BCM initiated or improved, procedures reviewed, vulnerable equipment moved, building made more resilient, investment in flood resistent technologies

 

e.g. company records, a colleague

Source: SpeedBACLIAT

How have your sites been affected by past weather events?

Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and details of critical thresholds.

Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability

Weather Type Impact Business consequences

Trigger point? Response

Adequate? Source

Winter rainstorms

Heatwave

Storms / high winds/High tide

Cold snaps?

Damage boatsin storage

Increased participation

Overtopping

Repair costs / insurance claims

Increased revenue

Site flooding / boats damaged

Rainfall intensity/ high winds

Length of hot spell

Storm / high tide combined

Move where boats stored

Took on more temporary staff

Reviewed insurance cover

In short term

Yes

In short term

A colleague

Records

Records

Source: SpeedBACLIAT

How have your sites been affected by recent weather events?

Outcomes: A record of past weather events and their consequences and details of critical thresholds.

Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability

Working session 2 (30 mins)

Complete flip charts in groups

Share a few examples of consequences of specific events

Step 2: Assessing current vulnerability

Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on:

Premises: Impacts on building design, construction and maintenance and

facilities management

People: Implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles

Process: Impacts on production process and service delivery

Logistics: Vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport arrangements

Markets: Changing demand for goods and services

Finance: Implications for investment, insurance and reputation

Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change

Use BACLIAT (Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool) to brainstorm potential impacts on:

Premises: Will buildings need to be adapted to avoid future flood risks?

People: Will seasonal employment and customer use of facilities change?

Process: How will service delivery need to change in the future?

Logistics: Are there considerations for how boats are moored in [and stored out

of] season?

Markets: Could we see an increase in demand with better summers?

Finance: Will insurance premiums go up in the future due to climate risks?

Outcomes: A list of priority climate change impacts.

Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change

Working session 3 (40 mins)Break into groups

Brainstorm potential impacts for the business areas most relevant to your organisation

(past things more frequent / new issues)

Consider THREATS and OPPORTUNITIES

No answers are wrong: think creatively and record all answers.

Think practically and think about longevity of sites

Consider direct and indirect impacts (e.g. not directly at site – transport links / supply)

Step 3: Assess vulnerability to future climate change

Climate change and its implications for business

Adapting to a changing climate workshop

Next steps

15 minsConduct an exercise to identify key impacts

Is there consensus?

Key considerations to prioritise:How soon

How likely

Consequences / cost

How long will it take to start adapting

WHY is this risk significant?

From potential future impacts to risks

30 minsWhat actions could you take to enhance the resilience of your site? Temporary or permanent?

Think about past experiences to draw on and be practical, think about how your business works

Explore technical, operational, strategic options

Would changes benefit business anyway?

Outcomes: An adaptation plan for your top 3 issues

Identifying adaptation actions

How can the preferred adaptations best be implemented;

What resources (staff, facilities, capital) will be required to implement the adaptations and monitor their effectiveness;

Who will “own” management of these risks

What institutional and community support will be required;

What barriers exist to adaptation and how might these be overcome;

How will the performance of the strategy, and actions within it, be monitored and reviewed.

Implementing adaptations: things to consider

Contact details

Paul.Buckley@mccip.org.uk

Tel: +44(0)1502 524314

www.mccip.org.uk

Contact