Macro-Economic DashboardBanking system credit growth at 5.5% for the fortnight ended

14 August 2020 remains sluggish largely due to weak credit

demand and risk aversion in the banking system. The silver

lining has been retail loans, which grew at 11.2% in July 2020. Within the unsecured

retail loan segment, personal loans grew 13.3% YoY (vs 12.1% YoY in Jun-20) while credit card loan growth picked up to 7.9% vs average growth of 2% YoY

in 1Q. On the other hand, loan growth in the housing segment and vehicle also saw a pick up.

Steel and cement registered saw negative growth in July, while steel saw an improvement in

the negative growth rate, it was sharper for cement where the seasonal factor also came into play. Expect India’s domestic steel production to recover in the ensuing months with

improving demand and stable inventory (at pre-COVID level)

given higher exports.

August Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0 vs. 46.0 in July,

moving into expansion territory for the fi rst time since March.

Improvement in operating conditions was cited as the reason for growth in orders, although poor export orders

continued to weigh on new orders.

There has been a marginal rise in unemployment in both urban and rural areas. Data suggests lower number of jobs created under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment

Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), which is partially indicative of the fact that urban jobs may be

returning.

Aug19

Sep19

Oct19

Nov19

Dec19

Jan20

Feb20

Mar20

Apr20

May20

Jun20

Jul20

Aug20

BankingCurrency in circulation (%YoY) 12.9 13.6 15.1 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.5 14.5 15.7 18.4 20.6 22.2 23.2 M3 (%YoY) 9.8 9.6 10.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.9 10.8 11.7 12.3 13.2 12.6 Bank non-food credit growth (%YoY) 10.1 8.6 8.8 6.9 6.7 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.5 Personal credit (%YoY) 15.6 16.6 17.2 16.4 15.9 16.9 17.0 15.0 12.1 10.6 10.5 11.2 Credit to industry (%YoY) 3.9 2.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 0.8 Credit to services (%YoY) 13.3 7.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 8.9 6.9 7.4 11.2 11.2 10.7 10.1 Deposit growth (%YoY) 9.7 9.4 10.3 8.3 9.1 11.1 10.2 7.9 9.9 9.7 11.3 12.1 11.0 Credit to deposit ratio (%) 75.74 75.69 75.83 75.51 76.23 75.85 75.83 76.44 74.9 73.3 73.6 72.5 72.6 10 year G-Sec yields (%) 6.56 6.70 6.45 6.47 6.55 6.60 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.76 5.89 5.84 6.12Weighted average lending rate of banks (%) 10.32 10.29 10.29 10.27 10.14 10.15 10.11 10.00 9.89 9.88 9.74 9.71Weighted average deposit rate of banks (%) 6.87 6.84 6.75 6.68 6.55 6.52 6.45 6.38 6.07 6.12 6.00 5.96Median MCLR (%) 8.50 8.45 8.35 8.31 8.30 8.25 8.21 8.20 8.00 7.85 7.68 7.58 7.45Commercial Paper issuance (%YoY) (21.4) (17.3) (21.3) (18.2) (16.8) (20.2) (23.2) (28.7) (23.1) (22.9) (22.3) (26.4) (26.4)IndustryCement production (%YoY) (5.1) (1.9) (7.7) 4.3 5.4 5.1 7.8 (25.1) (85.2) (21.4) (6.8) (13.4)Steel production (%YoY) 3.81 (1.5) (1.9) 7.0 8.7 1.6 2.9 (24.1) (78.7) (43.1) (25.4) (16.3)IIP (%YoY) (1.4) (4.3) (4.0) 1.8 0.1 2.1 4.5 (16.7) (57.6) (33.9) (16.6) Mining (%YoY) 0.0 (8.5) (8.0) 1.8 5.7 4.3 10.0 0.0 (27.0) (20.5) (19.8) Manufacturing (%YoY) (1.6) (3.9) (2.3) 2.7 (0.7) 1.6 3.2 (20.6) (67.1) (38.4) (17.1) Electricity (%YoY) (0.9) (2.6) (12.2) (5.0) (0.1) 3.1 8.1 (6.8) (23.0) (14.9) (10.0)Capital goods production (%YoY) (20.9) (20.3) (22.0) (8.6) (18.0) (4.3) (9.7) (38.3) (92.6) (65.2) (36.9)Consumer durable production (%YoY) (9.1) (9.9) (18.8) (1.6) (5.4) (3.8) (6.4) (36.5) (96.0) (69.4) (35.5)Consumer non-durable production (%YoY) 3.1 (0.4) (1.8) 1.5 (3.9) (0.3) 0.0 (20.2) (48.6) (11.1) 14.0 PMI Manufacturing Index 51.4 51.4 50.6 51.2 52.7 55.3 54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2 46 52.0 PMI Services Index 52.4 48.7 49.2 52.7 53.3 55.5 57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 33.7 34.2PMI Composite Index 52.6 49.8 49.6 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 37.8 37.2 ConsumerRural wage (%YoY) 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.0 Urban unemployment (%) 9.7 9.6 8.3 8.9 9.0 9.7 8.7 9.4 25.0 25.8 12.0 9.2 9.9 Rural unemployment (%) 7.5 6.0 8.0 6.5 6.9 6.1 7.3 8.4 22.9 22.5 10.5 6.7 7.5 Naukri job speak index (%YoY) 0.1 7.6 1.5 15.2 10.5 5.8 (0.0) (17.8) (61.6) (61.2) (44.4) (47.3)Motorvehicle sales (%YoY) (23.5) (22.4) (12.8) (12.1) (13.1) (13.8) (19.1) (45.0) (98.0) (84.2) (45.5) (25.5) Passenger vehicle (%YoY) (31.6) (23.7) 0.3 (0.8) (1.2) (6.2) (7.6) (51.0) (100.0) (86.4) (53.5) (12.8) Commercial vehicle (%YoY) (38.7) (39.1) (23.3) (15.0) (12.3) (14.0) (32.9) (88.1) (97.8) (90.0) (80.0) (72.2) Two wheeler (%YoY) (22.2) (22.1) (14.4) (14.3) (16.6) (16.1) (19.8) (39.8) (96.2) (82.9) (41.3) (22.3)Tractor sales (16.5) (4.7) (5.0) (13.2) 2.4 4.8 21.3 (49.9) (79.4) 4.0 22.4 38.5 Petrol consumption (%YoY) 8.9 6.2 8.9 9.3 3.2 3.5 11.3 (16.4) (60.4) (35.3) (13.4) (10.2)Diesel consumption (%YoY) (0.9) (3.3) (7.0) 9.1 (0.1) (1.8) 6.6 (24.2) (55.6) (29.4) (15.3) (19.1)Air traffi c (%YoY) 3.9 1.5 4.3 11.5 2.6 2.5 9.0 (32.8) (100.0) (97.7) (83.5) (82.2)Foreign tourist arrivals (%YoY) 1.6 4.3 6.1 7.8 2.8 1.3 (6.6) (66.4) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)FreightMajor port tarffi c (%YoY) 1.2 (0.5) (5.4) (0.3) 6.1 2.5 4.5 (5.1) (21.1) (23.3) (14.5) (13.2)Rail freight traffi c (%YoY) (6.1) (6.6) (8.1) 0.9 4.3 3.0 6.5 (13.9) (35.3) (21.3) (7.7) (4.6)E-way bills generated (%YoY) 4.6 8.9 (1.2) 18.5 10.8 11.6 14.3 (26.0) (83.6) (53.0) (12.7) (7.3)Foreign TradeExport growth (%YoY) (6.2) (6.3) (0.6) (0.5) (1.6) (1.7) 2.9 (34.6) (60.3) (36.2) (12.4) (10.2)Import growth (%YoY) (13.4) (12.8) (16.3) (12.7) (8.8) (0.8) 2.5 (28.7) (58.6) (52.4) (47.6) (28.4)Non-oil, non-gold imports (%YoY) (8.8) (6.5) (8.3) (10.5) (8.9) (4.8) (1.0) (30.5) (53.6) (36.4) (41.4) (29.1)Capital goods imports (%YoY) (9.3) 13.1 (0.8) (4.1) (5.2) 9.1 8.3 (36.3) (55.4) (33.9) (42.6) (30.1)FiscalCentral Government expenditure (%YoY) 25.9 34.3 9.1 5.5 32.3 (6.4) 5.2 75.0 20.6 (20.7) 45.7 5.6 Indirect tax (%YoY) 10.1 (3.3) (18.7) 6.5 4.2 14.2 13.1 3.8 (74.9) (42.8) (3.21) 14.1 Infl ationCPI (%YoY) 3.3 4.0 4.62 5.5 7.4 7.6 6.6 5.9 7.2 6.3 6.2 6.9 Core CPI (%YoY) 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.9 WPI (%YoY) 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 2.59 3.1 2.3 0.4 (1.6) (3.4) (1.8) (0.6)

Negative ( + ) 27 33 34 23 24 17 17 35 37 38 33 27 3Positive ( + ) 23 17 16 27 26 33 33 15 12 11 16 15 8

Negative Watch Neutral Positive Source: BNPP AMC, RBI, Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on September 08, 2020.The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on September 08, 2020.

Banking system credit growth at 5.5% for the fortnight ended

14 August 2020 remains sluggish largely due to weak credit

demand and risk aversion in nking system. The silver

een retail loans

ed rsonal s 12.1% dit card

owth picked up to 7.9% a everaragege gg 22%% YoYoYY

in 1Q. On the other hand, loan growth in the housin segment and vehicle also saw a pick up.

Steel and cement registered saw negative growth in July, while steel saw an improvement in

the negative growth rate, it was sharper for cement where the seasonal factor also came into play. Expect India’s domestic steel production to recover in the ensuing months with

improving demand and stable inventory (at pre-COVID level)

given higher exports.

August Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0 vs. 46.0 in July,

moving into expansion territory for the fi rst time since March.

Improvement in operating conditions was cited as the reason for growth in orders, although poor export orders

continued to weigh on new orders.

There has been a marginal rise in unemployment in both urban and rural areas. Data suggests lower number of jobs created under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment

Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), which is partially indicative of the fact that urban jobs may be

returning.

Aug19

Sep19

Oct19

Nov19

Dec19

Jan20

Feb20

Mar20

Apr20

May20

Jun20

Jul20

Aug20

BankingCurrency in circulation (%YoY) 12.9 13.6 15.1 12.8 11.9 11.9 11.5 14.5 15.7 18 4 20.6 22.2 23.2 M3 (%YoY) 9.8 9.6 10.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.9 10.8 11.7 2 12.6 Bank non-food credit growth (%YoY) 10.1 8.6 8.8 6.9 6.7 8.0 6.9 6.1 6.7 5.5 5.4 Personal credit (%YoY) 15.6 16.6 17.2 16.4 15.9 16.9 17.0 15.0 12.1 10.6 10.5 1 Credit to industry (%YoY) 3.9 2.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 0.8 Credit to services (%YoY) 13.3 7.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 8.9 6.9 7.4 11.2 11.2 10.7 10.1 Deposit growth (%YoY) 9.7 9.4 10.3 8.3 9.1 11.1 10.2 7.9 9.9 9.7 11.3 12.1 11.0 Credit to deposit ratio (%) 75.74 75.69 75.83 75.51 76.23 75.85 75.83 76.44 74.9 73.3 73.6 72.5 72 610 year G-Sec yields (%) 6.56 6.70 6.45 6.47 6.55 6.60 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.76 5.89Weighted average lending rate of banks (%) 10.32 10.29 10.29 10.27 10.14 10.15 10.11 10.00 9.89 9 88Weighted average deposit rate of banks (%) 6.87 6.84 6.75 6.68 6.55 6.52 6.45 6.38 6 0Median MCLR (%) 8.50 8.45 8.35 8.31 8.30 8.25 8.21 8 8.00 7.85 7.68 7.58 7.45Commercial Papep r issuance ((%YoY)) (21.4) (17.3) (21.3) (18.2) (16.8) (20.2) (23.2) (28.7) (23.1) (22.9) (22.3) (26.4) (26.4)IndustryCement production (%YoY) (5.1) (1.9) (7.7) 4 3 5.4 5.1 7.8 (25.1) (85.2) (21.4) (6.8) (13.4)Steel production (%YoY) 3.81 (1.5) (1 9 0 8.7 1.6 2.9 (24.1) (78.7) (43.1) (25.4) (16.3IIP (%YoY) (1.4) (4.3 1.8 0 10.1 2.1 4.5 (16.7) (57.6) (33.9) (16(16 6).6) Mining (%YoY) 0 0 1.8 5.7 4.3 10.0 0.0 (27.0) (20.5) (19.8) Manufacturing ( (0.7) 1.6 3.2 (20.6) (67.1) (38.4) (17.1) Electricity (%YoY) 8.1 (6.8) (23.0) (14.9) (10.0)Capital goods production (%YoY) (38.3) (92.6) (65.2) (36.9)Consumer durable production (%Y ) ( (96.0) (69.4) (35.5)Consumer non-durable produc (1.8) 1.5 (3.9) (0.3) 0.0 (20.2) (48.6) (11.1) 14.0 PMI Manufacturing Index 50.6 51.2 52.7 55.3 54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2 46 52.0 PMI Services Index 7 49.2 52.7 53.3 55.5 57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 33.7 34.2PMI Composite Index .8 49.6 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 37.8 37.2 ConsumerRural wage (%YoY) 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.0 Urban unemploy ent (%) 9.6 8.3 8.9 9.0 9.7 8.7 9.4 25.0 25.8 12.0 9.2 9.9 Rural unemployment (%) 7 6.0 8.0 6.5 6.9 6.1 7.3 8.4 22.9 22.5 10.5 6.7 7.5 Naukri job speak index (%YoY) 0.1 7.6 1.5 15.2 10.5 5.8 (0.0) (17.8) (61.6) (61.2) (44.4) (47.3)Motorvehicle sales (%YoY) (23.5) (22.4) (12.8) (12.1) (13.1) (13.8) (19.1) (45.0) (98.0) (84.2) (45.5) (25.5) Passenger vehicle (%YoY) (31.6) (23.7) 0.3 (0.8) (1.2) (6.2) (7.6) (51.0) (100.0) (86.4) (53.5) (12.8) Commercial vehicle (%YoY) (38.7) (39.1) (23.3) (15.0) (12.3) (14.0) (32.9) (88.1) (97.8) (90.0) (80.0) (72.2) Two wheeler (%YoY) (22.2) (22.1) (14.4) (14.3) (16.6) (16.1) (19.8) (39.8) (96.2) (82.9) (41.3) (22.3)Tractor sales (16.5) (4.7) (5.0) (13.2) 2.4 4.8 21.3 (49.9) (79.4) 4.0 22.4 38.5 Petrol consumption (%YoY) 8.9 6.2 8.9 9.3 3.2 3.5 11.3 (16.4) (60.4) (35.3) (13.4) (10.2)Diesel consumption (%YoY) (0.9) (3.3) (7.0) 9.1 (0.1) (1.8) 6.6 (24.2) (55.6) (29.4) (15.3) (19.1)Air traffi c (%YoY) 3.9 1.5 4.3 11.5 2.6 2.5 9.0 (32.8) (100.0) (97.7) (83.5) (82.2)Foreign tourist arrivals (%YoY) 1.6 4.3 6.1 7.8 2.8 1.3 (6.6) (66.4) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)FreightMajor p t tarffi c (%YoY) 1.2 (0.5) (5.4) (0.3) 6.1 2.5 4.5 (5.1) (21.1) (23.3) (14.5) (13.2)Rail freight traffi c (%YoY (6.1) (6.6) (8.1) 0.9 4.3 3.0 6.5 (13.9) (35.3) (21.3) (7.7) (4.6)E-way b 4.6 8.9 (1.2) 18.5 10.8 11.6 14.3 (26.0) (83.6) (53.0) (12.7) (7.3)

(6.2) (6.3) (0.6) (0.5) (1.6) (1.7) 2.9 (34.6) (60.3) (36.2) (12.4) (10.2)Impo (13.4) (12.8) (16.3) (12.7) (8.8) (0.8) 2.5 (28.7) (58.6) (52.4) (47.6) (28.4)Non-oil, non-gold imports (%YoY) (8.8) (6.5) (8.3) (10.5) (8.9) (4.8) (1.0) 5) (53.6) (36.4) (41.4) (29.1)Capital goods (9.3) 13.1 (0.8) (4.1) (5.2) 9.1 8.3 3) 4) (33.9) (42.6) (30.1)FiscalCentral Government expenditure (%YoY) 25.9 34.3 9.1 5.5 32 3 ( 20.6 (20.7) 45.7 5.6 Indirect tax (%YoY) 10.1 (3.3) (18.7) (74.9) (42.8) (3.21) 14.1 Infl ationCPI (%YoY) 3.3 4.0 4.62 5.5 .6 6.6 5.9 7.2 6.3 6.2 6.9 Core CPI (%YoY) 4.3 4.0 3.5 3 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.9 WPI (%YoY) 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 2.59 3.1 2.3 0.4 (1.6) (3.4) (1.8) (0.6)

Negative ( + ) 27 33 34 23 24 17 17 35 37 38 33 27 3Positive ( + ) 23 17 16 27 26 33 33 15 12 11 16 15 8

Negative Watch Neutral Positive Source: BNPP AMC, RBI, Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India, Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

The data mentioned above is as per their date of release and availability as on September 08 2020

growth pvs average gr

in 1 On the ohoo

th p

we

6.3)

6.00 5.968.20 8.00 7 85

2) (

yred

rs

18.1 7 1

5.4 11.2

Exmport g

il, non-s im

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(%YoY) 25.

whs

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h

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men 7.5peak 1

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18.8) (1.6) (5.4) (3.8) (6.4) (36.5)(1 8 20 2) (48.6)

uring (%y (%YoY)

YoY)

.01

7.6 .5 3.7

2 0

1 7) 6.5 1

)2.4)

(365.4)

demthe banking sy

lining has been retail loans,which grew at 11.2% in July 2020. Within the unsecured

retail loan segment, persloans grew 13.3% YoY (vsYoY in Jun-20) while credloan growth picked up tvs average growth of 2

other hanhousing so saw a

regisin J

prowthen

18.4 20.12.3 13.2 12.

6.1 5.51.2

5 72.65.89 5.84 6.12

9.88 9.74 9.716.07 6.12 6.00 5 96

8.20 8 04)

6.3)

hsaonsonsu

fic (%Ytourist

ort tarffi cght traffi c (%YoY)

E-way bills generated (%YoY)Foreign TradeExport growth (%YoY)

ort growth (%YoY)on-gold imports (%YoY)

imports (%YoY)

ent expe

4.3) (1.9) 7.0

(4.3) (4.0) 10.0 (8.5) (8.0)

uring (%YoY) (1.6) (3.9) (2.3) 2.7 (0.7)(0.9) (2.6) (12.2) (5.0) (0.1) 3.1 8.(20.9) (20.3) (22.0) (8.6) (18.0) (4.3) (9.7) (38.3)

%YoY) (9.1) (9.9) (18.8) (1 6) (5 4) (3 8) (6 4) (36.5) (96.0uction (%YoY) 3.1 (0.4) ( )

51.4 51.452.4 48.752.6 49.

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oyme 5pea

cl )

4. 2)(28.7 (52.4

0) (30.5 53.6) (38.3 (36.3) (55.4)

1 5.5 32.3 (6.4) 5.2 75.06 5 4.2 14.2 13.1 3.8

7.4 7 63.5 3

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