Simon Nunn

Assistant Director, External Affairs and Member

Relations

Board Members Conference

and Exhibition 2014 Operational Environment Briefing

• THE ECONOMY

• POLITICS

• LOCAL GROWTH AGENDA

The politics

THE RETURN OF GROWTH

The politics

UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Household consumption (% growth) Unemployment rate

Economic Growth UK: Projections Source: OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook - December 2013

The politics

CONTINUED TIGHTENING OF THE PUBLIC PURSE

The politics

CPI INFLATION PROJECTED TO BE STABLE

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CPI RPI

Inflation Projections: CPI and RPI (Source: Forecasts for the UK Economy - HM Treasury, 2013)

The politics

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1

Bank rate Bank rate adjusted for QE

Bank Rates: Projections Source: Bank of England, Treasure and OBR

INTEREST RATES FORECAST TO RISE AFTER

2015

The politics

HOUSING MARKET – PRICES AND

RENTS RISING

The politics

LONDON CHARGES AHEAD

Base: 980 British adults 18+, 29th November - 5th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Issues Facing Britain: December

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

39

37

29

22

17

15

14

13

12

12

Top mentions %

Economy

Unemployment

Housing

NHS

Race relations/Immigration

Education/Schools

Inflation/Prices

Poverty/Inequality

Change since Nov:

Crime/Law and order

Low pay/fair wages

+3

+2

-1

-2

HOW ARE POLITICAL PARTIES

RESPONDING?

Kris Hopkins MP Emma Reynolds MP

Stephen

Williams MP

Conservatives

• It’s the

economy,

stupid

• Help to buy

• More

welfare

reform –

under 25’s

Labour

• 200,000

homes a year

aspiration

• Lyons

Commission

• Repeal of

Bedroom

tax

• Energy

bills

WHO WILL WIN?

Conservative - 33

Labour - 38

Lib Dem - 11

UKIP – 11 Source: YouGov/ Sun (3 February 2014)

Source: Ipsos MORI

Source: Electoral calculus

TOWARDS THE GENERAL ELECTION –

PUSHING HOUSING UP THE AGENDA

DEVOLUTION AND LOCAL GROWTH

Simon Nunn

Assistant Director, External Affairs and

Member Relations

National Housing Federation

Simon.nunn@housing.org.uk