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Simon Nunn Assistant Director, External Affairs and Member Relations Board Members Conference and Exhibition 2014 Operational Environment Briefing
Simon Nunn
Assistant Director, External Affairs and Member
Relations
Board Members Conference
and Exhibition 2014 Operational Environment Briefing
• THE ECONOMY
• POLITICS
• LOCAL GROWTH AGENDA
The politics
THE RETURN OF GROWTH
The politics
UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Household consumption (% growth) Unemployment rate
Economic Growth UK: Projections Source: OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook - December 2013
The politics
CONTINUED TIGHTENING OF THE PUBLIC PURSE
The politics
CPI INFLATION PROJECTED TO BE STABLE
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CPI RPI
Inflation Projections: CPI and RPI (Source: Forecasts for the UK Economy - HM Treasury, 2013)
The politics
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1
Bank rate Bank rate adjusted for QE
Bank Rates: Projections Source: Bank of England, Treasure and OBR
INTEREST RATES FORECAST TO RISE AFTER
2015
The politics
HOUSING MARKET – PRICES AND
RENTS RISING
The politics
LONDON CHARGES AHEAD
Base: 980 British adults 18+, 29th November - 5th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: December
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
39
37
29
22
17
15
14
13
12
12
Top mentions %
Economy
Unemployment
Housing
NHS
Race relations/Immigration
Education/Schools
Inflation/Prices
Poverty/Inequality
Change since Nov:
Crime/Law and order
Low pay/fair wages
+3
+2
-1
-2
HOW ARE POLITICAL PARTIES
RESPONDING?
Kris Hopkins MP Emma Reynolds MP
Stephen
Williams MP
Conservatives
• It’s the
economy,
stupid
• Help to buy
• More
welfare
reform –
under 25’s
Labour
• 200,000
homes a year
aspiration
• Lyons
Commission
• Repeal of
Bedroom
tax
• Energy
bills
WHO WILL WIN?
Conservative - 33
Labour - 38
Lib Dem - 11
UKIP – 11 Source: YouGov/ Sun (3 February 2014)
Source: Ipsos MORI
Source: Electoral calculus
TOWARDS THE GENERAL ELECTION –
PUSHING HOUSING UP THE AGENDA
DEVOLUTION AND LOCAL GROWTH
Simon Nunn
Assistant Director, External Affairs and
Member Relations
National Housing Federation
