BOB Economics - Monthly Chartbook 9Sep'21

@2021 Bank of Baroda. All rights reserved

Important disclosures are provided at the end of this report.

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Fig 1 –

Slowdown

Sameer Narang

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Aditi Gupta

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Jahnavi

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Dipanwita Mazumdar

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Sonal Badhan

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India Economics

Monthly Chartbook

September 2021

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 2 09 September 2021

India’s improving Vaccination rate to boost growth

India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn. At this pace,

as much as 60% of the country will be fully vaccinated by Dec’21. This

implies urban economic activity will also normalise in coming months. While

near-term rural demand may be impacted by erratic monsoon rains, winter

crop outlook looks far better. Government tax collections remain buoyant

and give room for accelerated capex spending on roads and railways. Export

demand too remains healthy and likely to continue. With food prices

moderating, inflation may undershoot RBI’s revised trajectory. The above

backdrop gives room for yields to remain rangebound between 6.1% and

6.3%. While global central banks are looking at tapering QE injections, RBI is

likely to reduce liquidity and then wedge between reverse repo and repo rate

in Q4FY22.

Better outlook on rural demand: Monsoon was 24% below LPA in Aug’21

with poor rains seen in Punjab, Gujarat and North-East. Kharif sowing is 1.1%

below last year’s level led by 6.6% decline in cotton and 1.7% fall in edible oils.

This will impact production of pandemic resilient agri sector. However, rains in

Sep’21 are better. Winter crops sowing should be normal on the back of

reservoirs being 94% of 10-year average (80% last year). Government has

hiked MSP for mustard (8.6%) and lentils (7.8%) which are seeing highest

demand supply mismatch in the country. Thus, outlook on rural demand

remains far better than urban which is yet to normalise.

Centre’s tax collections remain buoyant: Centre’s gross tax collections over

a 2-year horizon have jumped by 29.1% to Rs 7tn in FYTD22. This is led by

65% rise in corporate tax collections (at Rs 1.5tn) followed by 25% rise in

income tax collections (at Rs 1.6tn). Indirect taxes rose by 21% at Rs 3.9tn.

Spending on the other hand is up by 6% over a 2-year horizon, led by capex

(+19.4%). Revenue spending is up by 4.3%. In case of states, tax revenue

growth has slipped marginally below (-0.8%) pre-pandemic levels at Rs 4.16tn

(Rs 4.19tn in FYTD20). However, spending is up by 12.1%, led by 11% rise in

revenue expenditure and 8.6% increase in capex. This has been supported by

85% jump in capital receipts (borrowings and loans).

Yields to remain rangebound: With robust tax collections, India’s 10Y yield

has fallen in Sep’21 compared with higher yields in most global markets. Retail

inflation may also be lower than RBI’s revised trajectory with food prices

showing some moderation. Globally, Korea (BoK) raised rates for the first time

in 3-years. US Fed is looking at tapering its bond purchases as early as Oct’21.

However, spread of delta variant has led to moderation in oil demand and

prices. The above backdrop favours 10Y yield to remain rangebound between

6.1-6.3% range. H2 Borrowing calendar will be most important driver in near-

term.

INR appreciates: INR rose by 1.9% in Aug’21 supported by FII inflows of US$

2.9bn. Softer oil prices (down by 5.1% in Aug’21 MoM) also supported INR.

Trade deficit expanded in Aug’21 led by gold imports. While imports are likely to

expand further as economic activity improves, strong export momentum is likely

to keep trade deficit contained at US$ 150bn in FY22. This implies that CAD

will remain contained at ~1% of GDP in FY22. This should support INR in 73-

75/$ in the near term.

Note: The source for all exhibits is ‘CEIC and Bank of Baroda’ unless otherwise specified

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


High Frequency Indicators

Mobility index and Covid cases

Fig 1 – Google mobility index edges lower Fig 2 – Statewise cases dropping; Kerala remains an outlier

Note:Highlights % change in visits to the place from baseline reading (median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five week period 3 Jan – 6 Feb 2020). Note: Data taken as 7 days rolling average

Fig 3 – Workplace mobility slips Fig 4 – Retail and recreation remains steady

Note: Data taken as 7 days rolling average Note: Data taken as 7 days rolling average

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

22-J

un

6-Ju

l

20-J

ul

3-A

ug

17-A

ug

31-A

ug

14-S

ep28

-Sep

12-O

ct

26-O

ct

9-N

ov

23-N

ov

7-D

ec21

-Dec

4-Ja

n

18-J

an

1-Fe

b

15-F

eb

1-M

ar

15-M

ar29

-Mar

12-A

pr

26-A

pr

10-M

ay

24-M

ay

7-Ju

n

21-J

un5-

Jul

19-J

ul

2-A

ug

16-A

ug

30-A

ug

(% change from baseline)

Retail & Recreation Grocery & Pharmacy

Transit Stations Workplaces

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

200

6,400

12,600

18,800

25,000

31,200

37,400

43,600

5-A

pr-2

1

12-A

pr-2

1

19-A

pr-2

1

26-A

pr-2

1

3-M

ay-2

1

10-M

ay-2

1

17-M

ay-2

1

24-M

ay-2

1

31-M

ay-2

1

7-Ju

n-21

14-J

un-2

1

21-J

un-2

1

28-J

un-2

1

5-Ju

l-21

12-J

ul-2

1

19-J

ul-2

1

26-J

ul-2

1

2-A

ug-2

1

9-A

ug-2

1

16-A

ug-2

1

23-A

ug-2

1

30-A

ug-2

1

(7-day moving average) Delhi Karnataka Kerala

Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra ( R)

(72)

(62)

(52)

(42)

(32)

(22)

(12)

(2)

18-J

an-2

125

-Jan

-21

01-F

eb-2

108

-Feb

-21

15-F

eb-2

122

-Feb

-21

01-M

ar-2

108

-Mar

-21

15-M

ar-2

122

-Mar

-21

29-M

ar-2

105

-Apr

-21

12-A

pr-2

119

-Apr

-21

26-A

pr-2

103

-May

-21

10-M

ay-2

117

-May

-21

24-M

ay-2

131

-May

-21

07-J

un-2

114

-Jun

-21

21-J

un-2

128

-Jun

-21

05-J

ul-2

112

-Jul

-21

19-J

ul-2

126

-Jul

-21

02-A

ug-2

109

-Aug

-21

16-A

ug-2

123

-Aug

-21

30-A

ug-2

1

Delhi Gujarat Karnataka Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Tamil Nadu

(82)

(72)

(62)

(52)

(42)

(32)

(22)

(12)

(2)

18-J

an-2

125

-Jan

-21

01-F

eb-2

108

-Feb

-21

15-F

eb-2

122

-Feb

-21

01-M

ar-2

108

-Mar

-21

15-M

ar-2

122

-Mar

-21

29-M

ar-2

105

-Apr

-21

12-A

pr-2

119

-Apr

-21

26-A

pr-2

103

-May

-21

10-M

ay-2

117

-May

-21

24-M

ay-2

131

-May

-21

07-J

un-2

114

-Jun

-21

21-J

un-2

128

-Jun

-21

05-J

ul-2

112

-Jul

-21

19-J

ul-2

126

-Jul

-21

02-A

ug-2

109

-Aug

-21

16-A

ug-2

123

-Aug

-21

30-A

ug-2

1

Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Karnataka Delhi Gujarat Tamil Nadu

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 5 – Electricity demand improves in Aug’21 Fig 6 – Cash withdrawal inches up

Source: Posoco. Note: Maximum Demand met during peak evening hours (MW) Source: NPCI.Note: NFS Cashwithdrawal amount does not include Card to Card Transfer

Fig 7 – IMPS payments dips Fig 8 – UPI payments continues to gather momentum

Source: NPCI

4.6%3.5%

(2.1%)

(4.8%)

(4.4%)(0.4%)

1.4%6.5%

(3.9%)

(25.3%)(13.2%)

(7.3%)(3.1%)

(4.2%)

2.5%

5.3%4.4%7.0%

7.7%

3.4%

12.2%

39.7%

5.8%

13.8%

11.6%14.3%

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

Electricity demand, YoY

5% 8% 5% 7%18%17%

(10%)

(47%)

(29%)(17%)

(20%)

(18%)(12%)(12%)

(5%)

(8%)

(9%)(12%)

10%

70%

(2%)(4%)

10%11%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

% YoY ATM Cash Withdrawal

(34%)(9%)

16% 17% 23%37% 35%

49%39% 34% 29%

67%

164%

68%53% 59% 54%

(50%)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

% YoY IMPS

28%

68%77% 82% 76%

88%80% 81%

71% 76% 73%

119%

164%

105% 110% 117%120%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

% YoY UPI

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 9 – Fertilizer sales slips Fig 10 – MGNREGA work demand drops significantly

Source: MGNREGA

(35%)

(15%)

5%

25%

45%

65%

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Fertilizer sales, YoY Fertilizer sales, 3MMA YoY19.9%

(28.6%)(24.0%)

0.3%

(0.1%)(6.6%)

16.6%

(0.7%)

8.9%

(8.5%)

4.2%1.3%

26.8%

(9.2%)

(22.0%)

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jun'

20

Jul'2

0

Aug

'20

Sep

'20

Oct

'20

Nov

'20

Dec

'20

Jan'

21

Feb'

21

Mar

'21

Apr

'21

May

'21

Jun'

21

Jul'2

1

Aug

'21

MGNREGA Work Demand, MoM

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Final consumption expenditure

Fig 11 – Private consumption improves in Q1FY22 Fig 12 – Government consumption declines

l

Fig 13 – General govt. revenue spending continues to dip Fig 14 – State* govt. revenue spending too slips

Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal

(30%)(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%25%

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

Real PFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R)

(30%)(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%25%

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

Real GFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R)

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

12MMA YoY

(10%)

(6%)

(2%)

2%

6%

10%

14%

18%

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

12MMA YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Non-oil imports, electronic imports

Fig 15 – Moderation in non-oil-non-gold imports Fig 16 – Electronic imports up in Aug’21

Fig 17 – Passenger car sales dip due to chip shortage Fig 18 – Two-wheeler sales contracts

Source: FADA

(55%)

(40%)

(25%)

(10%)

5%

20%

35%

50%

65%

(45%)

(30%)

(15%)

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

Total imports, 6MMA YoY Non oil & Non gold, 6MMA YoY (R)

(70%)

(35%)

0%

35%

70%

105%

140%

175%

210%

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

YoY 3MMA

25%

14%7%

28%

16%

(7%)

4%

(10%)

10%

(25%)

(59%)

42%

(3%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

MoM114.8%

12%3%

11%2%

36%

1%

(18%)

(6%)

10%

(28%)

(53%)

22%

(14%)

(55%)

(35%)

(15%)

5%

25%

45%

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

MoM126.5%

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Credit deployment of personal loans

Fig 19 – Growth in credit card outstanding inch up Fig 20 – Growth for personal loans eases

Fig 21 – Growth in vehicle loans slows Fig 22 – Consumer confidence remains weak (I have change chart)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

YoY 3MMA YoY

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

YoY 3MMA YoY

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

YoY 3MMA YoY

48.5 48.6

96.4104.0

45

65

85

105

125

145

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

Current situation Future expectation

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 23 – RBI’s essential spending higher Fig 24 – …non-essential spending continues to dip

Consumer durables & non-durables production

Fig 25 – Consumer durables output drops Fig 26 – …FMCG output too moderates

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1 (80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

(100%)(80%)(60%)(40%)(20%)

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%

Jun-

17

Oct

-17

Feb-

18

Jun-

18

Oct

-18

Feb-

19

Jun-

19

Oct

-19

Feb-

20

Jun-

20

Oct

-20

Feb-

21

Jun-

21

YoY 3MMA YoY

1943.6%

(50%)

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jun-

17

Oct

-17

Feb-

18

Jun-

18

Oct

-18

Feb-

19

Jun-

19

Oct

-19

Feb-

20

Jun-

20

Oct

-20

Feb-

21

Jun-

21

YoY 3MMA YoY

97%

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Agriculture

Fig 27 – Agri growth improves in Q1FY22 Fig 28 – Tractor sales contracts in Jul’21

Fig 29 – Agriculture credit scales up Fig 30 – Procurement of rice and wheat

Year Wheat Rice

2012-13 38.15 34.04

2013-14 25.09 31.85

2014-15 28.02 32.04

2015-16 28.09 34.22

2016-17 22.96 38.11

2017-18 30.83 38.19

2018-19 35.80 44.39

2019-20 34.13 51.99

2020-21 38.99 57.63*

2021-22 43.30

Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution | *As on: 31 Jul 2021

(25%)

(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

(4%)

(2%)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

Agriculture GVA Real GVA (R)

60%

7%

(28%)(20%)

22%

(3%)

12%

(24%)(12%)

90%

(37%)(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

MoM

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

YoY 3MMA YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 31 – Both international and domestic rice price drops Fig 32 – Higher international price of wheat; doemstic price dips

Source: World Bank Source: World Bank

Fig 33 – Global food prices edge upwards Fig 34 – Wage growth (men) improves marginally

Source: FAO

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

1,200

1,650

2,100

2,550

3,000

3,450

3,900

Aug

-12

Feb-

13

Aug

-13

Feb-

14

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

(Rs/Quintal) International Rice prices Domestic Rice prices MSP-Paddy (R)

1,050

1,250

1,450

1,650

1,850

2,050

600

1,000

1,400

1,800

2,200

2,600

Aug

-12

Feb-

13

Aug

-13

Feb-

14

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

(Rs/Quintal) International Wheat prices Domestic Wheat prices MSP-Wheat (R)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Aug

-17

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb-

18

Apr

-18

Jun-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

YoY 3MMA

2.2%

0.2%

-1.1%-0.9%

0.1%

0.6%0.3%

0.7% 0.7%0.9%

0.4%0.1% 0.2%

(2%)

(1%)

(1%)

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Agri Wages, MoM

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 35 – Kharif sowing is lower compared with last year

Crop Type (mn ha) Area sown in 2021-22 Area sown in 2020-21 Normal Area for whole Kharif season Growth (YoY%)

Foodgrains 71.1 71.3 71.5 (0.3)

Cereals 57.4 57.7 57.9 (0.6)

Rice 40.1 40.1 39.6 0.2

Pulses 13.7 13.5 13.5 1.2

Oilseeds 19.1 19.4 18.0 (1.7)

Cotton 11.8 12.6 12.4 (6.6)

Sugarcane 5.5 5.4 4.8 1.4

Jute and Mesta 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2

Total 108.15 109.4 107.3 (1.1)

*Note: Till 3 Sep 2021

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Inflation

Fig 36 – Retail inflation edged down to 5.6% in Jul’21 from 6.3% in Jun’21 Fig 37 – …Food inflation fell to 4% from 5.1% in Jun’21, led by vegetables, fruits

Fig 38 – Vegetable prices fell by 0.1% (MoM) in Aug’21 Fig 39 – CPI excl. food and fuel moderated to 6% from 6.2% in Jun’21

Note: *vegetable index computed using average retail price of major items

5.6%

4.0%

(5%)

(2%)

1%

4%

7%

10%

13%

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

CPI, YoY Food inflation, YoY

0%

4%

8%

12%

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Fruits, YoY Vegetables, YoY Pulses and Products

Cereals and Products Food inflation, YoY (R)

(0.1%)

(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)

(5%)0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

Aug

-13

Feb

-14

Aug

-14

Feb

-15

Aug

-15

Feb

-16

Aug

-16

Feb

-17

Aug

-17

Feb

-18

Aug

-18

Feb

-19

Aug

-19

Feb

-20

Aug

-20

Feb

-21

Aug

-21

Calc Veg Index, MoM Actual veg Index, MoM

6.0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

CPI, YoY Core CPI, YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 40 – …Led by household goods and services, transport and personal care and effects

Fig 41 – However, core excl. major volatile items was still elevated at 5.2%

Fig 42 – Retail fuel prices were at Rs 98.2 same as in Jul’21, crude price moderated to US$ 70.5/bbl from US$ 74.3/bbl

Fig 43 – Headline CPI is expected to be at 5.5% in FY22

Note: *Average retail price of Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai

2.8% 3.3%

2.9% 4.

8%

10.3

%

3.9%

2.9%

13.7

%

6.1%

3.7% 5.

7% 7.7%

11.6

%

4.5%

3.4% 4.

7%6.5%

3.9% 4.

9%

7.7%

10.5

%

6.4%

3.0% 3.8%

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

Clo

thin

g an

dFo

otw

ear

Hou

sing

Hou

seho

ld G

oods

and

Ser

vice

s

Hea

lth

Tra

nspo

rt an

dC

omm

unic

atio

n

Rec

reat

ion

and

Am

usem

ent

Edu

catio

n

Per

sona

l Car

e an

dE

ffect

s

Jul-20 Jun-21 Jul-21

5.2%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

Core excl transport & comm, personal care & effects & pan, tobacco & intoxicants, YoY

70.598.2

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

20

30

40

50

60

70

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

(Rs/ltr)(US$/bbl) Average Brent price Average retail fuel prices (R)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Mar

-17

Sep

-17

Mar

-18

Sep

-18

Mar

-19

Sep

-19

Mar

-20

Sep

-20

Mar

-21

Sep

-21

Mar

-22

Sep

-22

Mar

-23

Headline, YoY Core, YoY CPI Food, YoY (R )

BoB est

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Industry

Fig 44 – Industrial growth improves in Q1FY22 Fig 45 – Broad based improvement in FYTD’22 due to base effect

Fig 46 – IIP growth moderates in Jun’21

Sectoral (%) Weight Jun-21 Jun-20 Apr-Jun'22 Apr-Jun'21

IIP 100.0 13.6 (16.6) 45.0 (35.6)

Mining 14.4 23.1 (19.5) 27.4 (22.3)

Manufacturing 77.6 13.0 (17.0) 53.7 (40.2)

Electricity 8.0 8.3 (10.0) 16.8 (15.8)

Use-Based

Primary Goods 34.1 12.0 (14.5) 20.7 (20.2)

Capital Goods 8.2 25.7 (37.4) 110.2 (64.8)

Intermediate Goods 17.2 22.6 (20.7) 69.7 (40.8)

Infrastructure and Construction Goods 12.3 19.1 (18.3) 82 (46.9)

Consumer Durables Goods 12.8 30.1 (34.8) 132.6 (67.6)

Consumer Non-Durables Goods 15.3 (4.5) 6.9 18.1 (16.9)

6.0%

44.9%

7.9%

46.1%

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

IIP 3MMA YoY Real GVA industry, YoY (R)

(35.6%)

(22.3%)

(40.2%)

(15.8%)

45.0%

27.4%

53.7%

16.8%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity

Apr-Jun'21 Apr-Jun'22

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Manufacturing

Fig 47 – Manufacturing activity clocks higher growth due to base effect Fig 48 – Manufacturing PMI drops marginally

Source: Markit

Mining & Electricity

Fig 49 – Mining activity increases in Q1FY22 Fig 50 – Electricity output improves further

Source:Posoco. Note: Average Energy Met (MU)

6.8%

53.7%

6.9%

49.6%

(45%)

(30%)

(15%)

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

(60%)

(45%)

(30%)

(15%)

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

IIP Manufacturing, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Manufacturing, YoY (R)

55.352.3 50

33.5%13.0%

(90%)

(70%)

(50%)

(30%)

(10%)

10%

30%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

Manufacturing PMI IIP,Manufacturing (YoY)

(0.1%)

27.3%

(5.7%)

18.6%

(28%)

(20%)

(12%)

(4%)

4%

12%

20%

28%

(25%)(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21IIP Mining, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Mining, YoY (R)

(2%)(13%)

(5%)(1%)

3%

(7%)(9%)

(24%)(15%)

(10%)(3%) (2%)

5%12%

4% 5% 5%11%

23%

40%

7% 8% 11%17%

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

Electricity supply, YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Infrastructure and Construction

Fig 51 – Higher growth in construction sector in Q1FY22 Fig 52 – cement output rebounds on YoY basis

Infrastructure Index

Fig 53 – Infra index edges upwards to 9.4% in Jul’21 Fig 54 – Coal Output improves

9.7%

81.9%

14.5%

68.3%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

(55%)

(35%)

(15%)

5%

25%

45%

65%

85%

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

IIP Infra/Constrn, 3MMA YoY Real GVA Construction, YoY ( R)

(90%)(75%)(60%)(45%)(30%)(15%)

0%15%30%45%60%75%

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

YoY 3MMA YoY

583%

(40%)(30%)(20%)(10%)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

Infrastructure Index, YoY Infrastructure Index, 3MMA

(22%)(18%)(14%)(10%)

(6%)(2%)

2%6%

10%14%18%22%

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

YoY 3MMA YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Auto production & Business expectation index

Fig 55 – Auto production moderates Fig 56 – Business sentiment turns weaker

Fig 57 – Infrastructure index inches up

(%) Weight Jul-21 Jun-21 Jul-20 Apr-Jul’22 Apr-Jul’21

Infrastructure Index 100 9.4 9.3 (7.6) 21.2 (19.8)

Coal 10.3 18.7 7.4 (5.7) 10.5 (12.9)

Crude Oil 9.0 (3.2) (1.8) (4.9) (3.4) (6.1)

Natural Gas 6.9 18.9 20.6 (10.2) 21.0 (14.7)

Petroleum Refinery Products 28.0 6.7 2.4 (13.9) 13.1 (17.1)

Fertilizers 2.6 0.5 2.0 6.9 (1.1) 3.9

Steel 17.9 9.3 25 (6.5) 59.4 (38.4)

Cement 5.4 21.8 7.5 (13.5) 45.6 (32.2)

Electricity 19.9 9 8.2 (2.4) 14.6 (12.4)

57%

26% 21%8%

(19%) (17%)

16%2% 5%

(21%)

(57%)

24%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

MoM110%

113.10

89.70

119.60

124.10

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

Sep

-21

Current quarter Expectation for next quarter

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Investment

Fig 58 – Policy uncertainty in India has fallen in Aug’21 with moderation of Covid cases

Fig 59 – Investment demand shot up by 55.3% in Q1FY22 from 10.9% in Q4FY21 due to a low base of (-) 46.6% in Q1FY21

Source: policyuncertainty.com

Fig 60 – PLF of govt. thermal plants improved both for central and private plants Fig 61 – Capital goods production edged down to 25.7% in Jun’21 from 78% in May’21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Aug

-13

Aug

-14

Aug

-15

Aug

-16

Aug

-17

Aug

-18

Aug

-19

Aug

-20

Aug

-21

India Policy uncertainty Index

20.1%

55.3%

(50%)

(25%)

0%

25%

50%

75%

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Dec

-20

Jun-

21

Real GDP, YoY Real GFCF, YoY

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

Thermal: PLF, Central Thermal: PLF, Private

25.7%

(99%)

(69%)

(39%)

(9%)

21%

51%

81%

111%

Jun-

18

Oct

-18

Feb-

19

Jun-

19

Oct

-19

Feb-

20

Jun-

20

Oct

-20

Feb-

21

Jun-

21

Capital goods production, YoY Capital goods production, YoY over 2-year horizon

1042.9%

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 62 – Capital goods imports softened to 29.2% in Jul’21 from 83.8% in Jun’21 Fig 63 – Centre’s capex spending moderated rose to 29.9% from 24.2% in Jun’21

Fig 64 – Industry credit rose by 1% in Jul’21 from 0.3% decline seen in Jun’21 Fig 65 – Credit to micro & small industry rose to 7.9% from 6.4%, for medium industry it rose to 71.6% from 54.6% supported by ECLGS scheme

29.2%

(60%)

(30%)

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

Jul-1

8

Nov

-18

Mar

-19

Jul-1

9

Nov

-19

Mar

-20

Jul-2

0

Nov

-20

Mar

-21

Jul-2

1

Capital goods import YoY Capital goods import, YoY over 2-year horizon

29.9%

(40%)

(15%)

10%

35%

60%

Jul-1

8

Nov

-18

Mar

-19

Jul-1

9

Nov

-19

Mar

-20

Jul-2

0

Nov

-20

Mar

-21

Jul-2

1

Capital spending of the central government 12m trailing sum, YoY

1.0%

(4%)

(2%)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jul-1

7

Nov

-17

Mar

-18

Jul-1

8

Nov

-18

Mar

-19

Jul-1

9

Nov

-19

Mar

-20

Jul-2

0

Nov

-20

Mar

-21

Jul-2

1

Credit to industry, YoY

7.9%

71.6%

(15%)

(5%)

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

Jul-1

7

Nov

-17

Mar

-18

Jul-1

8

Nov

-18

Mar

-19

Jul-1

9

Nov

-19

Mar

-20

Jul-2

0

Nov

-20

Mar

-21

Jul-2

1

Credit to micro & Small industry, YoY Credit to medium industry, YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 66 – Credit to large industry fell at a slower pace of 2.9% from 3.4% decline seen in Jun’21

Fig 67 – Housing credit moderated to 8.9% from 9.7% in Jun’21

Fig 68 – Highway construction gaining pace Fig 69 – FDI inflows in Q1FY22 rose to US$ 18bn versus US$ 7bn in the same period of previous year

Note: FYTD22: Apr-Jul Source: DIPP

(2.9%)

(6%)

(4%)

(2%)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jul-1

7

Nov

-17

Mar

-18

Jul-1

8

Nov

-18

Mar

-19

Jul-1

9

Nov

-19

Mar

-20

Jul-2

0

Nov

-20

Mar

-21

Jul-2

1

Credit to large industry, YoY

8.9%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

Jul

-17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Apr

-18

Jul

-18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Apr

-19

Jul

-19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

Apr

-20

Jul

-20

Oct

-20

Jan

-21

Apr

-21

Jul

-21

Credit to housing, YoY Credit to housing, 3MMA, YoY

10,88510,237

13,327

2,657 2,927

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

FY19 FY20 FY21 FYTD21 FYTD22

National Highways: Construction (Km)

6

16

25 27 2619

30

22 2431

4043 45 44

50

60

7

18

2

12

22

32

42

52

62

72

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

Q1F

Y21

Q1F

Y22

(US$ bn) FDI Inflow

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Services sector

Fig 70 – GVA: Services activity picked up in Q1FY22 Fig 71 – Services PMI rebounded in Aug’21; Q2 avg (51.1) better than last year (38)

Source: Markit

Fig 72 – GVA: Trade & related services recovered sharply in Q1 Fig 73 – States’* tax revenue growth slipped in Jul’21


(21.5%)

1.5%

11.4%

(22%)

(17%)

(12%)

(7%)

(2%)

3%

8%

13%

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Dec

-20

Jun-

21

YoY

45.4

56.7

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

49

56

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

Services PMI

(48.1%)

(2.3%)

34.3%

(50%)

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Dec

-20

Jun-

21

YoY

(18.0%)

43.3%

21.4%

(40%)

(25%)

(10%)

5%

20%

35%

50%

65%

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Trade

Fig 74 – Vehicle registration growth slows in Aug’21 Fig 75 – Diesel consumption in Aug’21 still 9% lower over 2-year horizon

Fig 76 – Port cargo volumes seen reviving over 2-year horizon Fig 77 – Railway freight traffic growth eased in Aug’21, but is better than last year

33.9%

14.2%

(100%)

(80%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec

-17

Feb-

18

Apr

-18

Jun-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

YoY

9.5%

(9.0%)

(60%)

(50%)

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

Aug

-17

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb-

18

Apr

-18

Jun-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

2-year horizon

(7.2%)

(0.1%)

(30%)

(25%)

(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Aug

-17

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb-

18

Apr

-18

Jun-

18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

2-Year horizon, % YoY

3.9%

18.4% 16.9%

(37%)

(27%)

(17%)

(7%)

3%

13%

23%

33%

May

-16

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 78 – Toll collection growth eases further in Aug’21 Fig 79 – E-way bill generation growth seen normalising

11.8% 13.7% 11.2%

2.1%

10.8%7.8% 6.5%

21.6%

(15.0%)

(29.1%)

35.5%

21.8%

4.6%

(35%)

(25%)

(15%)

(5%)

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

Toll collection, MoM

17.3%

2.7%

(50%)

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

%MoM

Nationwide lockdown

Economy re-opened

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Hotels and communications

Fig 80 – Airline passenger traffic growth contracted less sharply in Jul’21… Fig 81 – …supported by domestic passenger growth

Fig 82 – Railway passenger traffic still far lower than pre-pandemic levels Fig 83 – Telecom sector added 4mn wireless subscribers in Jun’21 versus decline of 6.3mn subscribers in May’21

(77.5%)

(63.6%)

(110%)

(90%)

(70%)

(50%)

(30%)

(10%)

10%

30%

50%

Jul-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1


(74.3%)

(58.1%)

(110%)

(90%)

(70%)

(50%)

(30%)

(10%)

10%

30%

50%

Jul-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1


(79.1%)

(73.0%)

(105%)

(85%)

(65%)

(45%)

(25%)

(5%)

15%

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1


1,18

1

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

(mn) Number of Subscribers

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Finance and real estate

Fig 84 – Growth in GVA: Finance, real estate & prof. services eased further in Q1FY22

Fig 85 – Both deposit and credit growth seen recovering

Note: *Aug 21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021

Fig 86 – Credit to services sector inches up, credit to industry still muted Fig 87 – Credit to NBFCs and commercial real estate subdued in Jul’21

5.4%

3.7%

(11%)

(8%)

(5%)

(2%)

1%

4%

7%

10%

13%

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Dec

-20

Jun-

21

YoY

9.7%

10.0%

6.0%

6.2%

3%

6%

8%

11%

13%

16%

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Deposit growth, 3MMA YoY Credit growth, 3MMA YoY

*

(6%)

(1%)

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

Industry credit, 3MMA YoY Services credit, 3MMA YoY

(5%)

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

Sep

-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

Trade, 3MMA YoY Commercial real estate, 3MMA YoY NBFCs, 3MMA YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 88 – Property sale volumes dipped again in Q1FY22, similar to last year Fig 89 – Stamp duty collection in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala remain below pre-pandemic levels

Source: Proptiger

0.8% 0.1%

(11.7%)(2.0%)

(13.3%)

(72.6%)

85.0%68.0%

12.0%

(76.0%)(100%)

(80%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21

Prop sales volume (%QoQ)100

55

36 3729

20 2215

9 12

3528

17 1913 13 9 11

6 6

62 58

36 33 3023 22

1711 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

Mah

aras

htra

Utta

r P

rade

sh

Tam

il N

adu

Kar

nata

ka

Guj

arat

MP

Har

yana

Raj

asth

an

Pun

jab

Ker

ala

(Rs bn) Apr-Jul'19 Apr-Jul'20 Apr-Jul'21

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Labour market

Fig 90 – Formal employment, as shown by Naukri job index improved in Aug’21 Fig 91 – Unemployment rate picks up in Aug’21

(14.5%)

(2.4%)

2.4%

(16.4%)

(12.7%)

8.6% 9.5%

23.5%

(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

2Y growth, % YoY

2

6

10

14

18

22

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

(%) India unemployment rate

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Public administration

Fig 92 – Public administration & defence services contributed positively in Q1FY22 Fig 93 – General govt. spending showing signs of revival in Jul’21

Fig 94 – …supported by Central government spending Fig 95 – State* Govt. spending continues to ease


2.3%

5.8%

(14%)

(8%)

(2%)

4%

10%

16%

22%

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19

Dec

-19

Jun-

20

Dec

-20

Jun-

21

YoY

6.5%

8.4%

(15%)

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

0.7% 4.1%

(17%)

8%

33%

58%

83%

108%

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

17.7%

15.2%

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Financial sector

Money and banking

Fig 96 – Credit demand picked up to 6.5% in Jul’21 from 6.1% in Jul’21, deposit growth rose to 10.6% from 9.8% …

Fig 97 – …Both demand and time deposits inched rose to 22.6% and 9.2% respectively from 20.1% and 8.6% in Jul’21

Note: *Aug-21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021 Note: *Aug-21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021

Fig 98 – CD ratio moderated to 69.9% from 70.2% Fig 99 – Pace of accretion of credit, investment and deposit

Note: *Aug-21 implies fortnight as of 13 Aug 2021 FYTD: Till 13 Aug 2021

10.6%

6.5%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Deposit, YoY* Credit, YoY*

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Demand deposit, YoY* Time deposit, YoY*

69.9%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Credit deposit ratio*

2.0 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.2 7.0 8.4 9.6 8.3 7.9

14.3

6.711.5 9.9

15.5

5.1 4.62.64.1 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.7

7.0 6.76.5

7.35.4 7.1

5.9

7.8

11.5

6.0

5.8

(1.5)(0.6)

0.6

-0.2

0.71.8 1.9 2.2

1.2 2.42.7

2.12.8 1.3

4.1

2.9

0.6

3.7

7.2

5.71.5

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FYTD

21

FYTD

22

(Rs tn) ∆ Deposit ∆ Credit ∆ Investment

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 100 – Credit to govt moderated to 8.2% from 10.6% in Jun’21, credit to commercial sector however rose to 5.5% from 5%

Fig 101 – Spread between call rate and repo

Fig 102 – WATDR inched down to 5.21% from 5.24% in Jun’21, WALR rose to 7.69% from 7.66%

Fig 103 – CIC accretion is happening at a much slower pace of Rs 853bn in FYTD22 against Rs 2.4tn in the same period of previous year

FYTD: Apr-Aug

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Jul-0

1

Jul-0

2

Jul-0

3

Jul-0

4

Jul-0

5

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1

Credit to Govt, YoY Credit to Comm sector, YoY

(32) (30)(49) (58) (58) (62)

(72)(85) (85) (86)

(76)(80) (83) (83) (88) (87) (81)

(190)

(140)

(90)

(40)

10

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

Average spread of WALR over repo (WALR-Repo)(bps)

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

WALR_Fresh rupee loans, PSBs WATDR, PSBs

5,073 4,948

3,095 2,997

4,192

2,412

853

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FYTD21 FYTD22

(Rs bn) Change in currency in circulation (CIC)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 104 – 10Y GSec yield rose to 6.22% from 6.2% in Jul’21 and currently at 6.19%, inflation edged down to 5.6% from 6.3% in Jun’21

Fig 105 – Yield curve graph (YCG) shows steepening bias

Note: *As on last trading day of the month, 6.10GS2031 benchmark security is taken Source: Bloomberg

Fig 106 – Corporate debt issuance rose to Rs 498bn in Aug’21 from Rs 301bn in Jul’21

Fig 107 – Average system liquidity surplus was higher at Rs 7.4tn as against Rs 5.8tn in Jul’21 and currently at Rs 8.4tn

Source: RBI

6.22%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

CPI, YoY 10 year Gsec (R)*

3.4%

5.7%6.1% 6.3% 6.2%

7.1%

3.4%

5.5%

6.1% 6.2% 6.1%

6.7%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

6M 5Y 7Y 8Y 10Y 40Y

YCG, Aug-21 YCG, Aug-20

754

546

846

702

480584

644 623

455

881

556457

943

320

212

421

301

498

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

(Rs bn) Corporate Debt: Private Placement: Value

(8,500)(7,500)(6,500)(5,500)(4,500)(3,500)(2,500)(1,500)

(500)500

1,5002,500

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

(Rs bn) Total liquidity for banking sector

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 108 – 3Y AAA NBFC spread fell to 42bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 51bps as on 29 Jul 2021

Fig 109 – 10Y AAA NBFC spread fell to 68bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 77bps as on 29 Jul 2021

Fig 110 – 3Y AAA corp fell marginally to 29bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 30bps as on 29 Jul 2021

Fig 111 – 10Y AAA corp spread fell to 61bps as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 70bps as on 29 Jul 2021

(10)

40

90

140

190

240

Aug

-14

Nov

-14

Feb-

15

May

-15

Aug

-15

Nov

-15

Feb-

16

May

-16

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Average traded spreads of NBFCs for 3Y AAA

Mean+SD

Mean-SD

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Aug

-14

Nov

-14

Feb-

15

May

-15

Aug

-15

Nov

-15

Feb-

16

May

-16

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Average traded spreads of NBFCs for 10Y AAA

Mean+SD

Mean-SD

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Aug

-14

Dec

-14

Apr

-15

Aug

-15

Dec

-15

Apr

-16

Aug

-16

Dec

-16

Apr

-17

Aug

-17

Dec

-17

Apr

-18

Aug

-18

Dec

-18

Apr

-19

Aug

-19

Dec

-19

Apr

-20

Aug

-20

Dec

-20

Apr

-21

Aug

-21

Average traded spreads of corporates for 3Y AAA

Mean+SD

Mean-SD

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Aug

-14

Nov

-14

Feb-

15

May

-15

Aug

-15

Nov

-15

Feb-

16

May

-16

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Average traded spreads of corporates for 10Y AAA Mean+SD Mean-SD

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 112 – INR 3Y swap moderated marginally to 4.69 as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 4.7 as on 30 Jul 2021

Fig 113 – For 10Y, it edged down to 5.73 as on 31 Aug 2021 versus 5.81 as on 30 Jul 2021

Interest rates on small savings schemes

Fig 114 – Interest rates on small savings scheme to remain unchanged in Q2FY22

Instrument (%) Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 GSec Yield

(1 Sep 2021)

Savings deposit 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

1 year time deposit 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 3.63




5 year recurring deposit 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.61

5 year senior citizen savings scheme 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 5.61

5 year monthly income scheme 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.61

5 year national savings certificate 8 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 5.61

Public provident fund scheme 8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.20

Kisan vikas patra 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 -

Sukanya samriddhi account scheme 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 -

Source: Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Aug

-02

Aug

-03

Aug

-04

Aug

-05

Aug

-06

Aug

-07

Aug

-08

Aug

-09

Aug

-10

Aug

-11

Aug

-12

Aug

-13

Aug

-14

Aug

-15

Aug

-16

Aug

-17

Aug

-18

Aug

-19

Aug

-20

Aug

-21

INR Swap 3-yr Mean+SD Mean-SD

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Aug

-05

Aug

-06

Aug

-07

Aug

-08

Aug

-09

Aug

-10

Aug

-11

Aug

-12

Aug

-13

Aug

-14

Aug

-15

Aug

-16

Aug

-17

Aug

-18

Aug

-19

Aug

-20

Aug

-21

INR Swap 10-yr Mean+SD Mean-SD

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 115 – Interest rates charged by leading banks

1Y MCLR (%) Jun’20 Jul’20 Aug’20 Sep’20 Oct’20 Nov’20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun’21 Jul’21 Aug’21

Public Sector Banks

Bank of Baroda 7.65 7.60 7.60 7.55 7.50 7.45 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35

Bank of India 7.70 7.60 7.45 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.25

Canara Bank 7.65 7.55 7.45 7.40 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35

Indian Bank 7.50 7.40 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.35

Punjab National Bank 7.60 7.60 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.30

State Bank of India 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

Union Bank of India 7.60 7.40 7.25 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20

Private Sector Banks

Axis Bank Ltd. 7.75 7.65 7.55 7.50 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.35

HDFC Bank Ltd. 7.65 7.45 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20

ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.70 7.55 7.45 7.40 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.25 7.25

Indusind Bank 9.15 9.05 8.95 8.85 8.75 8.70 8.65 8.65 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.55 8.45

Kotak Mahindra Bank 7.75 7.60 7.50 7.50 7.45 7.35 7.35 7.35 7.30 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25

Source: RBI

Mutual fund (MF) indicators

Fig 116 – Sensex rose by 9.4% to 57,552 in Aug’21, AUM of MFs also rose to Rs 37tn from Rs 35tn in Jul’21

Fig 117 – MF equity inflow moderated to Rs 90bn from Rs 214bn in Jul’21; debt outflow stood at Rs 54bn from Rs 639bn inflow in Jul’21

Source: *Sensex as on last trading day of the month.

57,552

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jul-0

1

Jul-0

3

Jul-0

5

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

1(Rs tn) AUM: Mutual fund BSE sensex* (R)

(2,500)

(1,500)

(500)

500

1,500

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

(Rs bn)(Rs bn) Net inflow Equity Net inflow Debt (R)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 118 – Pattern of MF deployment of equity funds Fig 119 – MF deployment of debt funds

Insurance sector indicators

Fig 120 – Sale of life insurance policies picked up to 27% in Aug’21 from 16% in Jul’21

Fig 121 – Gross direct premium for non life insurance rose to 24.4% from 19.5% in Jul’21 driven by a favourable base

36.5%

19.8%

11.8%

7.3%

6.6%

6.2%

4.7%

3.2%

2.7%

1.2%

Others

Banks

Software

Finance

Pharma

Consumer non-durables

Petroleum prod

Auto

Power

Cement

Jul-20 Jun-21 Jul-21

14% 13% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16%

18% 17% 16% 16% 17% 16% 18%

10% 11% 8% 9% 9% 13% 12%11% 13% 11% 11% 10% 12% 11%

22% 22% 23% 21% 21%21% 20%

16% 16% 16% 15% 15%14% 14%

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 8% 9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21

Govt. securities Commercial Paper Tbills CBLO

Corporate Debt PSU Bonds / Debt Others

27%

(78%)

(28%)

22%

72%

122%

172%

222%

272%

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

Number of life insurance policies sold, YoY

24.4%

(35%)

(25%)

(15%)

(5%)

5%

15%

25%

35%

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

Non life insurance: Gross direct premium, YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Public finance

Central government finances

Fig 122 – Fiscal deficit eases further in Jul’21 to to 6.1% Fig 123 – Revenue deficit also down

Fig 124 – Primary deficit at 2.8% in Jul’21 Fig 125 – Government spending slowed further in Jul’21 (12MMA)…

6.7%

6.1%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1

% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum

4.9%4.3%

1.8%

2.8%

3.8%

4.8%

5.8%

6.8%

7.8%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1

% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum

3.4%

2.8%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1

% of GDP, 12M Trailing sum26.5%

23.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1

12M Trailing sum YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 126 – …led by revenue spending Fig 127 – Capex picked up pace in Jul’21

Fig 128 – Spending by minstries of road transport, consumer affairs, and HRD see pick up in Jul’21

Ministry Apr-Jul’19 (Rs bn) Apr-Jul’20 (Rs bn) % change Apr-Jul’21 (Rs bn) % change

Ministry of Finance 3,009 3,786 25.8 3,557 (6.0)

Ministry of Defence 1,607 1,593 (0.8) 1,472 (7.6)

Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution 1,091 700 (35.9) 991 41.6

Ministry of Rural Development 417 1,023 145.5 539 (47.3)

Ministry of Home Affairs 438 504 15.2 566 12.3

Ministry of Human Resource Development 231 202 (12.5) 237 17.2

Ministry of Road Transport and Highways 321 266 (17.3) 515 93.7

Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers 329 313 (5.0) 268 (14.2)

Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 309 196 (36.8) 25 (87.0)

Ministry of Agriculture 358 505 41.2 340 (32.7)

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 202 271 34.2 249 (7.8)

26.8%

23.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


24.2%

29.9%

(40%)

(25%)

(10%)

5%

20%

35%

50%

65%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 129 – Receipt growth remains robust in Jul’21… Fig 130 – …as revenue receipts continue to improve

Fig 131 – Tax receipts jumped sharply Fig 132 – Non-tax revenue growth remains subdued

28.9%

35.0%

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


30.5%

35.6%

(17%)

(7%)

3%

13%

23%

33%

43%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


37.2%

43.4%

(14%)

(7%)

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

35%

42%

49%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


5.0%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 133 – Centre’s revenue situation in Jul’21 remains healthy; Capex growth improves while revenue spending seen declining Apr-Jul’19 (Rs bn) Apr-Jul’20 (Rs bn) % change Apr-Jul’21 (Rs bn) % change FY22BE/FY21PA % change

Gross Tax revenue 5,391 3,800 (29.5) 6,959 83.1 9.5

Direct taxes 2,171 1,450 (33.2) 3,071 111.8 19.6

Corp Tax 884 537 (39.2) 1,459 171.5 19.6

Income Tax 1,288 912 (29.1) 1,612 76.7 19.6

Indirect taxes 3,219 2,350 (27.0) 3,888 65.4 2.6

Non-tax revenue 439 246 (43.9) 1,400 468.6 16.8

Centre's revenue (net) 3,826 2,274 (40.6) 6,692 194.3 9.6

Total expenditure 9,473 10,542 11.3 10,044 (4.7) (0.8)

Capital exp 1,076 1,118 3.9 1,284 14.8 30.5

Revenue exp 8,397 9,424 12.2 8,760 (7.0) (5.1)

Fiscal deficit 5,476 8,213 50.0 3,211 (60.9) -

Fig 134 – Gross indirect tax collections remain elevated Fig 135 – Gross direct tax collections also picking up…

37.7%

41.3%

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


7.1%

12.8%

(26%)

(21%)

(16%)

(11%)

(6%)

(1%)

4%

9%

14%

19%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 136 – …as corporate tax collections rebound Fig 137 – Income tax collections maintain momentum

Fig 138 – GST collections in Jul’21 remained above Rs 1tn mark, albeit slowed marginally from Jun’21

(Rs bn) Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21

Monthly

run rate

(FY22)

FYTD22 FY22

(BE)

CGST 379 324 372 429 398 430 447 666 568 555 283 337 479 413 1,653 5,300

UT GST 2.2 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 3.2 4.1 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.5 2 7 -

IGST (60) 52 (3) 2 76 124 68 (373) (104) 48 153 64 (37) 57 228 -

SGST* 475 509 612 539 596 560 531 848 862 331 402 696 601 507 2,029 -

Cess 68 69 68 78 80 82 83 93 84 92 89 66 75 80 322 1,000

Total GST 864 955 1,052 1,050 1,152 1,198 1,131 1,239 1,414 1,027 928 1,164 1,120 1,060 4,240 -

Source: PIB | *Computed from PIB and CGA data

(2.6%)

5.2%

(35%)

(28%)

(21%)

(14%)

(7%)

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

4

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

7

Jul-1

8

Jul-1

9

Jul-2

0

Jul-2

1


18.9%

21.8%

(13%)

(8%)

(3%)

2%

7%

12%

17%

22%

27%

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1


MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 139 – Central govt. public debt rose sharply in FY21 Fig 140 – Gap between avg. yield on SDL and 10Y G-sec lowered in Aug’21; and is further down in Sep’21 so far

Source: CCIL

Fig 141 – Subsidy burden increased significantly in FY21 Fig 142 – Central govt. FY22 disinvestment status

PA-Provisional Actual; BE-Budget Estimates

40.4%

40.3%

40.4%

40.4%

40.0%

40.1%

40.8%

41.8%

42.6%

42.3%

48.0%

51.2%

51.6%

51.9%

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21% of GDP

5.6

6.1

6.6

7.1

7.6

8.1

8.6

9.1

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

Sep

-21

(%) SDL Yield G-Sec (10Y)

1.3%

3.5%

1.6%

0.4%

0.6%

0.4%0.5%

2.7%

1.1%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

PA

FY22

BE

Total subsidy, % of GDP Fertilizer subsidy, % of GDP Food subsidy, % of GDP

84

141

1,6661,739

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Disinvestment of Govt.'s equity holdings Total Non-debt capital receipts

Jul'21 (FY22) DeficitBE FY22: 1,750 BE FY22: 1,880

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


State government finances

Fig 143 – States* fiscal deficit remained steady in Jul’21 Fig 144 – Chhattisgarh, M.P., U.P, to remain higher deficit states in FY22 (BE)

Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal Source: Budget documents

Fig 145 – Total expenditure of states* cooled further in Jul’21 Fig 146 – …as revenue spending by states* fell

Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal Note: *All states excluding N.E states, A.P., Bihar, Goa, J&K, Telangana and W.Bengal

(3.4%)

(3.4%)

(4.5%)

(4.0%)

(3.5%)

(3.0%)

(2.5%)

(2.0%)

(1.5%)

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

% of States* GDP, 12M Trailing sum

1.6%2.2%

2.8%2.9%3.0%

3.2%3.5%3.5%3.5%

3.8%3.9%3.9%4.0%4.0%

4.2%4.5%

4.5%4.6%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

GujaratMaharashtra

JharkhandWest Bengal

BiharUttarakhand

KarnatakaOdishaKerala

HaryanaTamil NaduTelanganaRajasthan

PunjabUPMPHP

Chhattisgarh

FY22BE, Fiscal Deficit (as % of GDP)

17.7%

15.2%

(15%)

(5%)

5%

15%

25%

35%

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY11.4%

8.9%

(15%)

(7%)

1%

9%

17%

25%

33%

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 147 – State* govt. tax revenue receipts in Jul’21 remains below pre-pandemic (Jul’19) levels; spending still higher than Jul’19 Apr-Jul’19 (Rs bn) Apr-Jul’20 (Rs bn) % change Apr-Jul’21 (Rs bn) % change

Total Receipts 6,316 6,030 (4.5) 7,043 16.8

Revenue Receipts 5,580 4,716 (15.5) 5,682 20.5

Receipts: Tax Revenue 4,193 3,055 (27.1) 4,160 36.2

Receipts: Non-Tax Revenue 404 334 (17.4) 484 44.8

Receipts: Grant in aid & contribution 928 1,455 56.8 1,118 (23.1)

Capital Receipts 736 1,314 78.6 1,361 3.6

Total Expenditure 6,182 6,035 (2.4) 6,930 14.8

Revenue Expenditure 5,538 5,662 2.2 6,152 8.7

Capital Expenditure 716 373 (47.9) 777 108.5

Revenue Surplus or Deficit 28 (1,031) - (522) -

Fiscal Surplus or Deficit (732) (1,397) - (682) -


Fig 148 – Capex spending of states* also down Fig 149 – Total receipt of states* broadly stable in Jul’21



141.2%

92.7%

(65%)

(35%)

(5%)

25%

55%

85%

115%

145%

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

18.4%

18.5%

(15%)

(5%)

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 150 – Revenue receipts of states* seen easing… Fig 151 – … As tax revenue receipts of states* cooled sharply


Fig 152 – Grant in aid from Centre to states* also remains weak Fig 153 – Capital receipts of states* supported overall receipts


29.1%

16.4%

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

43.3%

21.4%

(40%)

(25%)

(10%)

5%

20%

35%

50%

65%

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

(6.2%)

(5.4%)

(60%)

(20%)

20%

60%

100%

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

(12.3%)

28.5% (70%)

(25%)

20%

65%

110%

155%

200%

245%

290%

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

3M Trailing sum YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Central government borrowing

Fig 154 – Centre’s T-bill issuances at Rs 2.5tn in Q2 till date Fig 155 – Centre’s gross borrowing in Q2 till date is at Rs 2.7tn

Total accepted amount

(G-Sec), (Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

FY22

(planned)

Q1 2,613 2,797 2,888 3,089 3,364 5,328 5,375 4,680

Q2 2,667 2,584 3,186 3,299 3,024 5,417 2473^ 2,210

Q3 2,645 2,747 2,632 3,070 2,889 3,745 - -

Q4 2,104 1,684 2,486 1,812 2,511 2,714 - -

Total 10,029 9,811 11,192 11,271 11,788 17,204 - -

Total accepted amount

(G-Sec), (Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

FY22

(planned)

Q1 1,740 1,500 1,680 1,320 2,040 3,140 3,064 3,800

Q2 1,630 1,910 1,890 1,440 2,210 4,220 2696* 3,440

Q3 1,640 1,610 1,640 1,270 1,930 2,910 - 2,408

Q4 840 800 670 1680 920 3,191 - 2,408

Total 5,850 5,820 5,880 5,710 7,100 13,461^ - 12,055

Source: RBI^Till 3 Sep 2021 Source: RBI^ Against budgeted Rs 12.8tn *Till 3 Sep 2021

State government borrowing

Fig 156 – State government borrowings picked in Aug’21, was also higher than last year

Fig 157 – States’ market borrowings on the rise in Q2FY22

Quarterly SDL issuances,

(Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

FYTD22

(actual)

FY22

(planned)

Q1 502 548 650 766 815 1,673 1,491 1,783

Q2 627 792 1,130 809 1,439 1,614 1267* 1,696

Q3 858 1,214 1,054 1,277 1,470 2,023 - -

Q4 959 1,322 1,348 1,809 2,006 2,448 - -

Total 2,946 3,876 4,182 4,661 5,731 7,757 - -

Source: RBI Source: RBI; * as of 7 Sep 2021

556506

607

50

200

350

500

650

800

950

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

(Rs bn) Monthly SDL issuances

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


External sector

Exports

Fig 158 – Global exports increasing steadily Fig 159 – India’s exports decelerate in Aug’21

Note: Figure for Aug’21 is average YoY growth for Aug-Sep’21

Exports by major sectors

Fig 160 – … led by moderation in oil exports Fig 161 – .. and exports of gems and jewellery

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

(60%)

(20%)

20%

60%

100%

Aug

-05

Aug

-06

Aug

-07

Aug

-08

Aug

-09

Aug

-10

Aug

-11

Aug

-12

Aug

-13

Aug

-14

Aug

-15

Aug

-16

Aug

-17

Aug

-18

Aug

-19

Aug

-20

Aug

-21

India exports, YoY 3MMA World exports index, YoY 3MMA (R)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

GDP: Exports growth, YoY Exports growth, 3MMA YoY

(80%)

(40%)

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

200%

240%

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Oil exports, YoY Oil exports, 3MMA YoY

(110%)

(60%)

(10%)

40%

90%

140%

190%

240%

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Gems and jewellery, YoY Gems and jewellery, 3MMA YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 162 – Exports of engineering goods picked up in Aug’21 Fig 163 – Similar trend in exports of chemicals

Imports

Fig 164 – Imports rose to US$ 47bn in Aug’21 from US$ 46.4bn in Jul’21 Fig 165 – Over a 2-year horizon, imports have risen by 18%, non-oil-non-gold imports have remained muted at 4.1%

Note: Figure for Aug’21 is average YoY growth for Aug-Sep’21

(70%)

(30%)

10%

50%

90%

130%

170%

210%

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Engineering goods, YoY Engineering goods, 3MMA YoY

(50%)

(35%)

(20%)

(5%)

10%

25%

40%

55%

70%

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Chemicals, YoY Chemicals, 3MMA YoY

(60%)

(30%)

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

GDP: Imports growth, YoY Imports growth, 3MMA YoY

(60%)

(45%)

(30%)

(15%)

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

(%) Imports, 2Yr % Non-oil-non-gold imports, 2Yr %

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 166 – Gold imports rose to US$ 6.7bn from US$ 4.2bn in Jul’21; lower on a YoY basis

Fig 167 – Oil imports moderated in Aug’21

Fig 168 – Improvement in imports of machinery Fig 169 – Iron and steel imports also rise in Aug’21

(120%)

0%

120%

240%

360%

480%

600%

720%

840%

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Gold imports, YoY Gold imports, 3MMA YoY

(120%)

(80%)

(40%)

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

200%

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Oil imports, YoY Oil imports, 3MMA YoY

(65%)

(40%)

(15%)

10%

35%

60%

85%

110%

135%

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Machinery, YoY Machinery, 3MMA YoY

(70%)

(40%)

(10%)

20%

50%

80%

110%

140%

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

Iron and steel, YoY Iron and steel, 3MMA YoY

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Exports and imports by major regions

Fig 170 – Exports to all regions have picked up in FYTD22 (Apr-Jul’21)

Region (% YoY) Share in FY21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21

Americas 23.7 53.5 263.0 92.6 51.5 56.8

Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 27.3 88.1 205.9 76.0 34.4 31.7

China 7.4 148.8 101.9 (6.1) 9.4 22.5

Europe 19.2 70.9 240.3 77.2 58.4 65.2

Middle East and Africa 22.0 32.5 172.7 77.3 72.2 61.1

Other 0.4 (47.7) 202.7 (57.0) 10.0 7.8

Fig 171 – ..similar trend in imports

Region (% YoY) Share in FY21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21

Americas 12.8 35.2 99.0 50.8 95.8 51.7

Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 25.0 54.5 151.7 53.6 85.2 41.2

China 13.8 137.6 114.8 52.9 110.1 26.0

Europe 15.0 140.5 338.3 24.2 86.0 57.7

Middle East and Africa 30.8 18.1 207.9 157.6 107.9 119.7

Other 2.6 (18.3) 33.8 114.3 57.3 (10.7)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Trade deficit

Fig 172 – Trade deficit expands further to US$ 13.9bn from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 Fig 173 – …even as oil prices moderated

Trade in services BoP

Fig 174 – Services exports rose by 8.8% in Jul’21 versus 16.1% growth in Jun’21 Fig 175 – Current account deficit expands to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21

(21)

(18)

(15)

(12)

(9)

(6)

(3)

0

3

Aug

-15

Nov

-15

Feb-

16

May

-16

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

(US$ bn) Trade balance

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

(20)

(16)

(12)

(8)

(4)

0

4

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb-

20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

(US$/bbl)(US$ bn) Trade balance Crude prices (Avg.) (R)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

(YoY) Services exports, YoY Services exports, YoY 3MMA

Q4FY21, (1%)(3%)

(1%)

1%

3%

5%

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Current account balance as % of GDP

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 176 – Led by higher trade deficit

(US$ bn) Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21

Current account 0.6 19.1 15.3 (2.2) (8.2)

CAD/GDP (%) 0.1 3.7 2.4 (0.3) (1.0)

Trade balance (35.0) (11.0) (14.8) (34.6) (41.7)

- Merchandise exports 76.5 52.2 75.6 77.2 91.3

- Merchandise imports 111.6 63.2 90.4 111.8 133

- Net Services 22 20.8 21.1 23.2 23.5

--Software 21.1 20.8 22 23.5 23.5

Transfers 18.4 17 18.4 19.3 18.8

Other invisibles (4.8) (7.7) (9.4) (10.1) (8.7)

Capital account 17.4 1.4 15.9 34.1 12.3

% of GDP 2.4 0.3 2.5 4.6 1.6

Foreign investments (1.8) 0.1 31.4 38.6 10.0

- FDI 12.0 (0.5) 24.4 17.4 2.7

- FII (13.7) 0.6 7.0 21.2 7.3

Banking capital (4.6) 2.2 (11.3) (7.6) (4.4)

Short-term credit (1.0) (0.2) (1.8) 0.2 (2.3)

ECBs 10.3 (1.2) (4.0) (1.1) 6.1

External assistance 0.6 4.1 1.9 1.2 4.0

Other capital account items 13.8 (3.7) (0.3) 2.8 (1.0)

E&O 0.9 (0.6) 0.4 0.6 (0.7)

Overall balance 18.8 19.9 31.6 32.5 3.4

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Foreign inflows

FII inflows FDI inflows

Fig 177 – FII inflows rise to US$ 2.9bn in Aug’21 after outflows of US$ 1.8bn in Jul’21

Fig 178 – FDI inflows moderate to US$ 2.8bn in Jun’21 after rising sharply by US$ 10.6bn in May’21

Source: Bloomberg Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Fig 179 – FDI inflows in auto and computer, software remained rise in Q1FY22 Fig 180 – FDI inflows from Singapore accelerate the most in Q1FY22

Sector % Share FY21 Jun'20 Sep'20 Dec'20 Mar'21 Jun'21

Computer software and hardware

25.8 1.1 16.5 6.8 1.8 3.1

Services Sector 5.0 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.9

Trading 2.6 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.6

Automobile industry 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 4.7

Telecommunications 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0

Country (US$ bn) % Share in FY21 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21

Singapore 29.2 1.8 6.5 7.4 1.7 3.3

Mauritius 9.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.2 3.3

Netherlands 4.7 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.1

UK 3.4 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.3

Japan 3.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5

Source: DIPP Source: DIPP

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

(18)

(14)

(10)

(6)

(2)

2

6

10

Aug

-16

Dec

-16

Apr

-17

Aug

-17

Dec

-17

Apr

-18

Aug

-18

Dec

-18

Apr

-19

Aug

-19

Dec

-19

Apr

-20

Aug

-20

Dec

-20

Apr

-21

Aug

-21

(US$ bn)(US$ bn) FII-Net equity FII-Net debt FII-Net Total, 12M Trailing sum (R)

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

(US$ bn)(US$ bn) FDI inflows FDI inflows, 12M Trailing sum (R)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Forex reserves and external debt

Fig 181 – India’s FX reserves rise to a record-high of US$ 633.6bn in Aug’21, US$ 54.3bn accretion in FYTD22

Fig 182 – Import cover dips in Jul’21 but remains above long-term average

Source: Bloomberg | Weekly data as of 27 Aug 2021

Fig 183 – RBI purchased US$ 18.6bn in the spot market in Jun’21 comapred with US$ 5.8bn in May’21

Fig 184 – In forwards market, RBI sold US$ 10.3bn in Jun’21, outstanding position at US$ 49.6bn

58

63

68

73

78

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

(US$ bn) Forex reserves USD/INR (R)

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Jan-

20

Jul-2

0

Jan-

21

Jul-2

1

(Months) Import cover Average import cover (Jul'16 to Jul'21)

(8)

(4)

0

4

8

12

16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

(US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Cash

(25)

(10)

5

20

35

50

65

80

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun-

19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Mar

-20

Jun-

20

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Mar

-21

Jun-

21

(US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Forwards (outstanding)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Markets

Equity

Fig 185 – In Sep’21, Sensex rose marginally by 0.1% Fig 186 – In Aug’21, Sensex rose the most by 11.5%, while MSCI EM rose by 2.4%

Source: Bloomberg | * As on 8 Sep 2021, Indices are in US$ terms Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Indices are in US$ terms

Fig 187 – In CYTD21, Sensex rose by 20.7% Fig 188 – VIX index rose to 14.5 in Aug’21 from 12.8 in Jul’21

Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Indices are in US$ terms Source: Bloomberg

7.1%3.7%

2.5%1.7%

0.5%0.4%0.4%

0.1%(0.2%)

(0.9%)(0.9%)

(1.3%)(1.4%)

(1.8%)(1.9%)

(2.4%)

(4%) 1% 6%

JapanChina

RussiaHong Kong

AustraliaMSCI EM Equity

SingaporeIndia

UKPortugal

USGermanyThailand

GreeceKorea

Indonesia

Equity Index MTD (% change)

11.5%9.9%

7.3%5.6%

4.3%3.5%

3.0%2.8%

2.5%2.4%

1.5%1.4%

0.2%(0.4%)

(26%)(4.4%)

India

Thailand

Portugal

Russia

China

Greece

Indonesia

Japan

US

MSCI EM Equity

Australia

Germany

UK

Hong Kong

Singapore

Korea

Equity Index MoM (% change)

21.2%20.7%

16.3%11.0%10.9%

10.2%8.7%

6.8%5.6%

5.0%4.7%

3.1%1.5%1.3%

(3.9%)(5.3%)

Russia

India

US

UK

Germany

Greece

Australia

Portugal

Singapore

Thailand

Korea

China

Indonesia

MSCI EM Equity

Japan

Hong Kong

Equity Index CYTD21 (% change)

51525354555657585

10

15

20

25

30

35

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

NSE volatility index Chicago board options exchange volatility index (R)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 189 – Power and technology stocks rose the most Fig 190 – Large caps rose the most

Source: Bloomberg | As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg | As on 31 Aug 2021

10-year bond yields

Fig 191 – In Sep’21, India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps in contrast with global yields Fig 192 – In Aug’21, India’s 10y yield rose a tad by 1bps

Source: Bloomberg | * As on 8 Sep 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken

11.6%

10.9%

10.6%

5.8%

5.5%

2.7%

0.4%

(2.1%)

(3.1%)

POWER

TECK

OIL AND GAS

BANKEX

CAPITAL GOODS

CONSUMER DURABLES

AUTO

METAL

REALTY

Performance of majore sectors in BSE, MoM

9.4%

8.0%

3.3%

0.5%

BSE

BSE LargeCap

BSE MidCap

BSE SmallCap

Performances according to mcap, MoM

1413

1211

1110

65

333

222

(3)

Australia

Thailand

Greece

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

Germany

Portugal

Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate Yield to worst

UK

US

China

Japan

Singapore

India

10 year generic yields. MTD, bps

1615

119

85

444

10

(1)(3)

Greece

UK

Singapore

US

Germany

Hong Kong

Korea

Portugal

Thailand

India

Japan

China

Australia

10 year generic yields, MoM, bps

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 193 – In FYTD22, only India’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps in contrast with falling global yields

Fig 194 – In CYTD21, India’s 10Y yield rose by 35bps

Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken Source: Bloomberg | * As on 31 Aug 2021, Note: For India 6.10GS2031 yield is taken

Currencies

Fig 195 – INR appreciated by 1.6% in Aug’21 Fig 196 – INR still overvalued by 4.3% (Jul’21)

Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg

5(2)

(7)(9)

(10)(13)

(15)(19)

(32)(34)

(39)(40)

(43)

India

Portugal

Japan

Germany

Greece

UK

Korea

Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate Yield to worst

Singapore

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

US

10 year generic yields, FYTD22, bps

5752

4039

3532

261919191818

14

Singapore

UK

US

Hong Kong

India

Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate…

Thailand

Korea

Germany

Australia

Portugal

Indonesia

Greece

10 year generic yields, CYTD21, bps

58

63

68

73

78

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

USD/INR

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

USD/INR REER Trade weighted (40 currencies) (R)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 197 – Lower oil prices supported INR Fig 198 – EM currencies also appreciated in Aug’21

Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021

Fig 199 – Global currencies were mixed in Aug’21 Fig 200 – In CYTD21, INR has fallen by 0.3%

Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 31 Aug 2021

10

30

50

70

90

110

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

(US$/bbl)USD/INR Brent (R)

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

5759616365676971737577

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

Aug

-17

Feb-

18

Aug

-18

Feb-

19

Aug

-19

Feb-

20

Aug

-20

Feb-

21

Aug

-21

USD/INR MSCI EM (R)

(1.4%)(1.0%)(1.0%)

(0.7%)(0.6%)

(0.5%)(0.2%)

(0.1%)0.1%

0.4%0.5%

0.6%0.7%

1.3%1.6%1.6%

KRW

CAD

GBP

AUD

EUR

RUB

JPY

CNY

PHP

NZD

DXY

IDR

SGD

THB

INR

MYR

MoM change (Aug'21) (%)

(7.7%)(6.9%)

(6.1%)(5.2%)

(3.8%)(3.4%)(3.2%)

(2.6%)(2.2%)

(1.7%)(0.3%)

0.7%0.9%0.9%

1.2%

3.0%

THB

KRW

JPY

AUD

PHP

EUR

MYR

NZD

IDR

SGD

INR

GBP

CNY

CAD

RUB

DXY

CYTD21 change (%)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Commodities

Fig 201 – US rig count inched up Fig 202 – US crude oil inventories dropped, showing improved demand

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Fig 203 – Oil prices on an average fell to US$ 70.5/bbl from US$ 74.3/bbl, DXY inched up to 92.63 from 92.17

Fig 204 – Precious metals declined the most, bitcoin rose the most

Source: Bloomberg | DXY Index as on last trading day of the month Source: Bloomberg | Index as on last trading day of the month

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

May

-21

Aug

-21

US oil Rig count Brent US$ (R)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb-

20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20

Aug

-20

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb-

21

Apr

-21

Jun-

21

Aug

-21

(US$/bbl)(000/bbl) US crude inventories Brent (R)

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Aug

-17

Nov

-17

Feb

-18

May

-18

Aug

-18

Nov

-18

Feb

-19

May

-19

Aug

-19

Nov

-19

Feb

-20

May

-20

Aug

-20

Nov

-20

Feb

-21

May

-21

Aug

-21

(US$/bbl)Brent (R) DXY Currency

18.5%

2.4%

1.0%

0.5%

(0.5%)

(1.1%)

(1.2%)

(5.1%)

(7.2%)

Bitcoin Index

MSCI Equity Index

Agri Index

MSCI Currency Index

CRB Comm. Index

XAU Curncy (US$/troy ounce)

Base Metal

International Crude (US$ /bbl)

Precious metal index

Movement of major asset classes, MoM, Aug'21

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Global consumption

Fig 205 – Retail sales moderate in Jul’21 Fig 206 – Auto sales drop significantly in Jul’21

Note:Retail sales for US till Jun’21 Note: Auto sales for Eurozone till Jun’21

Fig 207 – Consumer confidence falls across the board Fig 208 – CPI continue to edge upwards in Eurozone; Cools-off in China

Note: Consumer confidence for eurozone is % diffusion index. Data for China is for Jul21 Note: Data for Eurozone till Aug’21

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

(3MMA, YoY) US Eurozone China

(65%)

(45%)

(25%)

(5%)

15%

35%

55%

75%

95%

115%

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Apr

-20

Jul-2

0

Oct

-20

Jan-

21

Apr

-21

Jul-2

1

(3MMA, YoY ) US Eurozone China

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Aug

-15

Dec

-15

Apr

-16

Aug

-16

Dec

-16

Apr

-17

Aug

-17

Dec

-17

Apr

-18

Aug

-18

Dec

-18

Apr

-19

Aug

-19

Dec

-19

Apr

-20

Aug

-20

Dec

-20

Apr

-21

Aug

-21

(% Balance)US China Eurozone (R)

(0.5%)

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

Aug

-16

Dec

-16

Apr

-17

Aug

-17

Dec

-17

Apr

-18

Aug

-18

Dec

-18

Apr

-19

Aug

-19

Dec

-19

Apr

-20

Aug

-20

Dec

-20

Apr

-21

Aug

-21

(YoY) US Eurozone China

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Policy

Fig 209 – Bank of Korea surprises with a rate-hike

Country Current inflation rate (%) Current policy rate (%) CY20 (change in bps) CYTD21 (change in bps) Direction of policy rate in CYTD21

Brazil 8.99 5.25 (250) 325 �

Russia 6.68 6.5 (200) 225 �

Turkey 19.25 19.00 500 200 �

Korea 2.60 0.75 (75) 25 �

Mexico 5.81 4.50 (300) 25 �

Germany 3.90 0 0 0 -

UK 2.00 0.10 (65) 0 -

US 5.40 0.25 (150) 0 -

India 5.59 4 (115) 0 -

Japan -0.30 -0.10 0 0 -

China 1.00 4.35 0 0 -

Australia 3.80 0.1 (65) 0 -

Thailand -0.02 0.5 (75) 0 -

Malaysia 2.20 1.75 (125) 0 -

Phillipines 4.90 2.00 (200) 0 -

Indonesia 1.59 3.5 (125) (25) �

Source: Bloomberg

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Global investment and manufacturing

Fig 210 – Global manufacturing and services PMI both seen easing in Aug’21 Fig 211 – Barring US, manufacturing activity (PMI) slowed elsewhere in Aug’21

Fig 212 – Producer prices continue to remain elevated Fig 213 – Industrial production seen slowing in Aug’21

22263034

38424650545862

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

Global manufacturing PMI Global services PMI

32

37

42

47

52

57

62

67

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

China (official) Japan US ISM Germany

(4)

(3)

(1)

1

2

4

5

7

8

10

11

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

(%YoY)US China Japan Germany

(23)(19)(15)(11)(7)(3)159131721

(9)

(2)

6

13

20

27

34

Jul-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep

-20

Nov

-20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

(3MMA, YoY ) China Japan (R) US (R) Germany (R)

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Global trade

Fig 214 – World trade volume improves further in Jun’21 Fig 215 – Trade volumes improving across the board

Country/Region (% YoY)

Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21

Africa and Middle East (3.6) (4.6) (3.8) (2.8) 7.4 9.7

China 39.7 37.9 18.4 23.0 21.6 14.6

Eastern Europe / CIS (0.1) 0.6 2.1 6.9 7.8 9.3

Emerging Asia (ex. China)

3.5 7.4 16.0 34.8 36.0 28.3

Euro Area (2.8) (3.0) 12.1 37.6 26.2 14.0

Japan 4.1 8.3 1.0 11.5 17.9 18.5

Latin America (0.9) 1.0 12.4 23.4 42.7 20.3

US 2.5 (0.7) 8.3 27.4 29.8 21.2

Source: CPB, World Trade Monitor Source: CPB, World Trade Monitor

Fig 216 – China’s exports stabilise in Aug’21 Fig 217 – Imports remain muted

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

(16%)

(12%)

(8%)

(4%)

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21

Global, 3MMA YoY

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

(3MMA, YoY ) US Japan Germany China

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb-

21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug

-21

(3MMA, YoY ) US Japan Germany China

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


Fig 218 – Performance of high frequency indicators

Indicators Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21

Agriculture

Domestic Tractor Sales 64.8 26.7 9.0 48.3 41.2 47.5 30.4 170.4 480.8 (2.4) 22.1 8.2 -

Two Wheeler Sales (28.7) (12.6) (26.8) (21.4) 11.9 (8.8) (16.0) (35.0) - 158.3 16.9 27.6 6.7

MNREGA work (HH, MoM) (24) 0.3 (0.3) (6.6) 16.6 (0.7) 8.9 (8.5) 4.2 1.3 26.8 (9.2) (22.0)

Manufacturing

IIP: General index (7.1) 1.0 4.5 (1.6) 2.2 (0.6) (3.2) 24.2 134.6 28.6 13.6 - -

IIP: Manufacturing (7.6) 0.4 4.5 (1.6) 2.7 (0.9) (3.4) 28.4 197.9 33.5 13.0 - -

IIP: Capital goods (14.4) (1.2) 3.2 (7.5) 2.2 (9.0) (4.2) 50.4 1042.9 78.2 25.7 - -

IIP: Infra & Construction goods 0 4.0 10.9 2.1 3.1 2.3 (3.5) 35.1 596.1 45.6 19.1 - -

IIP: Consumer goods (10.2) 5.3 18.1 (3.2) 6.5 (0.1) 6.6 59.9 1943.6 91.9 30.1 - -

Steel 0.5 6.2 5.9 0.7 3.5 8.2 2.2 31.5 472.7 55.3 24.9 9.3 -

Cement (14.5) (3.4) 3.2 (7.3) (7.2) (5.8) 0.2 40.6 582.7 8.3 7.5 21.8 -

Electricity (1.8) 4.8 11.2 3.5 5.1 5.5 0.2 22.5 38.5 7.5 8.2 9.0 -

PMI: Manufacturing 52 56.8 58.9 56.3 56.4 57.7 57.5 55.4 55.5 50.8 48.1 55.3 52.3

Services

Services PMI index 41.8 49.8 54.1 53.7 52.3 52.8 55.3 54.6 54.0 46.4 41.2 45.4 56.7

Automobile sales (26.8) (10.2) (24.0) (19.3) 11.0 (9.7) (13.4) (28.6) - 164.4 22.6 34.1 14.5

Passenger vehicle sales (7.1) 9.8 (8.8) 4.2 24.0 (4.5) 10.6 28.4 - 178.8 43.5 62.9 38.7

Vehicle Registration (25.4) (8.4) (22.3) (17.5) 11.7 (8.6) (12.6) (27.7) 215.6 158.5 22.5 33.9 14.2

Rail freight traffic 3.9 15.5 15.4 9.0 8.7 8.7 5.5 26.6 70.7 39.1 20.5 18.4 16.9

Port Cargo volume (10.4) (1.9) (1.2) 2.8 4.4 4.0 1.9 16.4 29.5 33.0 19.5 6.7 11.4

Credit growth 5.5 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.3 5.9 6.6 5.6 6.2 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.5

Deposit growth 10.9 10.5 11.1 10.7 10.8 11.1 12.1 11.4 11.2 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.6

CIC 23.2 22.7 20.3 22.8 22.4 21.4 20.3 17.2 15.0 13.2 12.0 10.3 9.8

Toll collection (in mn) 96.8 110.1 122.4 124.9 138.4 149.2 159 193.3 164.3 116.5 157.9 192.3 201.2

Diesel consumption (20.7) (5.9) 7.5 (6.9) (2.7) (2.1) (8.4) 27.6 105.4 0.8 (1.5) 11.5 14.9

GST E-way bill (in mn) 49.4 57.4 64.2 57.7 64.2 62.9 63.8 71.2 58.8 40.0 54.7 64.2 65.9

External Trade

Merchandise exports (12.2) 6.0 (4.9) (8.4) 0.4 6.4 (0.8) 60.3 195.7 68.1 48.3 49.9 45.2

Merchandise imports (26.0) (19.6) (10.3) (12.2) 8.4 2.0 7.0 53.8 167.1 68.7 98.3 63.0 51.5

Services exports (9.9) (1.4) (6.3) (5.1) (6.4) (10.1) (1.0) 12.6 6.7 3.5 16.1 8.8 -

Services imports (20.1) (8.7) (12.3) (11.8) (8.4) (15.9) (4.1) 12.8 6.4 3.0 11.9 10.1 -

Source: CEIC, MoRTH, Posoco, Markit, RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK


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BOB Economics - Monthly Chartbook 9Sep'21

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