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42
Karim Naffah Karim Naffah Finance Director Bond Investor Briefing – 30 November 2006
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Page 1: Bond Investor Update - November 2006 › pdf › debt › 301106_bond_investor...zRapid implementation of site appraisals and conversions z25 sites reopened: 10% of estate z50 sites

Karim NaffahKarim Naffah

Finance Director

Bond Investor Briefing – 30 November 2006

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Highlights Highlights –– 52 weeks to 30 Sept 200652 weeks to 30 Sept 2006

Gross debt outstanding at last year end £1,837m

Gross debt outstanding at this year end £2,455m

EBITDA (reported) £396m

EBITDA (pro-forma*) £394m

Free cashflow £285m

EBITDA DSCR 2.8x

FCF DSCR 2.0x

* Based on rated estate of 1704 pubs (for tap issue)

Tap issue in Q4: £655m additional debt

£450m FRNs refinanced

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ProPro--forma EBITDA adjusting for acquisitions/disposalsforma EBITDA adjusting for acquisitions/disposals

Reported EBITDA £396m

Full year from 16 acquired pub restaurants £8m

Disposals of 100 pubs to Trust Inns (£9m)

Other disposals / consented disposals (£4m)

Associated reduction in management charge £3m

Pro-forma EBITDA (ongoing estate)* £394m

239 pubs acquired from Whitbread held outside securitisation

* Based on rated estate of 1704 pubs (for tap issue)

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ValuationValuation

2003 2006

£2.0m

£2.8m

Average Value Per Pub

Estate Valuation £3.85bn £4.83bn

LTV 49% 51%

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Maintenance & Capital EnhancementMaintenance & Capital Enhancement

Repairs* 32

Maintenance 104

Enhancement 52

188

Securitisation Estate

136 **

*Charged through Profit & Loss account** Versus required amount of £101m

£m

Substantial investment to improve estate quality

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Free Cash FlowFree Cash Flow

£m

EBITDA 396

Tax (43)

Required maintenance capital (68)

Free cashflow 285

Interest (107)

Principal repayment (37)

Debt Service (144)

Maintenance capital (over required) (35)

Enhancement capital (net of disposals) (28)

Excess cash 78

2.0x

The restricted payment maximum is now £31m

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SecuritisationSecuritisation CovenantsCovenants

Year H1 H2 Year

FCF: Debt Service 1.9x 1.9x 2.2x 2.0x

EBITDA: Debt Service 2.7x 2.7x 3.0x 2.8x

Net Worth £1.28bn £2.21bn

FY 05 FY 06

Note: Default Covenants. FCF/Debt Service 1.1x, Net Worth of £0.5bn

Restricted Payment Test. FCF/Debt Service 1.3x, EBITDA/Debt Service 1.7x

Well within required covenants

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MAB Retail MAB Retail vsvs MAB plcMAB plc

FY06 No. of pubs EBITDA (Year end)

MAB plc £430m 2152

MAB Retail (Securitisation) £396m 1847

MAB Retail as % of total 92% 86%

Securitisation estate continues to represent over 85% of MAB

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Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights

*Before exceptional itemsNB. Comparatives are for 52 weeks and are restated for IFRS

52 weeks ended 30 September 2006 % Growth

Revenue £1720m 5.5%

EBITDA* £430m 6.7%

Operating profit* £309m 6.9%

Profit before tax* £208m 10.1%

EPS (before exceptional items) 29.3p 15.4%

EPS (including exceptional items) 39.7p 59.4%

Total dividend 12.25p 14.0%

Net Operating Margin up 0.3% to 18%

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Operating Profit Movement Operating Profit Movement

* For 52 weeks before exceptional items and restated for IFRS** Before exceptional items

+39

(24)

Regulatory & Energy costs

2005

+£20m

Acquired Sites

2006

£289m*

£309m**

+6

Trading SCPD

(1)

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FY 2006 Expansionary Capital FY 2006 Expansionary Capital

Note: Excludes non trading property: £1m

High Street

Pub Restaurants

Restaurants

Locals

City Centre

Foodled

Drinksled

Residential

£17m £47m

£8m £0m

Incremental ROI on last 2 years investment > 20%

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Group Points to NoteGroup Points to Note

Net debt now: c. £2.5bn

Interest cover* c.2.3x

Net debt/EBITDA c.5.8x

Dividend

Total dividend 12.25p, up 14%

Special dividend of £1 per share post year end

Progressive policy

Pensions

£60m commitment

£40m paid in October

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REIT’sREIT’s

Tax efficient structure for property assets

Available from 1 January 2007

Would require split into two independent companies

REIT and OpCo

Cost / benefit equation

Tax advantages; conversion charge; other transition costs

Stability of new legislation; market ratings of separate entities

Fundamental strategic question

Direct link between pub performance and property value

Possible to align economic incentives through contractual framework?

Testing compatibility of REIT with long-term trading success

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SummarySummary

Strong operating performance

Growing sales; improving margin

Generating high returns on investment

Property appreciation benefits

Value-creative disposals

Refinancing on attractive terms

Using cash resources profitably

Acquired Sites provide additional platform for growth

Special Dividend and share buyback

Growing cashflow and generating value

Page 15: Bond Investor Update - November 2006 › pdf › debt › 301106_bond_investor...zRapid implementation of site appraisals and conversions z25 sites reopened: 10% of estate z50 sites

John ButterfieldJohn Butterfield

Strategy Director

Bond Investor Briefing – 30 November 2006

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Strategy is DeliveringStrategy is Delivering

Powerful momentum of sales driven growth

Customer focused, value and volume strategy

Sustained like for like sales growth

Market share gains

Productivity and purchasing gains

Acquisition gives eating out market leadership

High returns from conversions

Further repositioning of core estate to food

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Key Levers of Profits GrowthKey Levers of Profits Growth

Strong growth prospects

Leading the growth of eating outLarge pubs, uniquely positioned to capture neighbourhood dining growthHigh volume, capacity management skillsMenu development

Accelerating drinks market share gainsExtended range, own label, glycol coolingWidening the competitive value gap

Format innovation and evolutionTargeting the high growth segmentsWidening the competitive amenity gap

Extracting the profit benefits of scaleHigh productivity gains in high take pubsRising volumes generate purchasing gains

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Strong LikeStrong Like--forfor--Like Sales GrowthLike Sales Growth

* 32 weeks to include Easter in both years

UninvestedUninvested Same OutletSame Outlet

H1* 06 H2 06 H1* 06 H2 06

4.0%4.2%

2.6%2.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Wks 1-7

2.9%

4.5%

Wks 1-7

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Profitable Market Share GainsProfitable Market Share Gains

(1) Same outlet like for like for 52 weeks vs. equivalent 52 calendar weeks of FY2005 (incl. pubs disposed to Trust Inns in Oct 2006 but exc. Acquired sites)(2) MAB estimates based on BBPA/ AC Neilsen/ ONS for Pub Market

MAB EstimatedVolume Growth (1) Market Vol Growth (2)

Food + 6% + 4%

Wines & Soft Drinks + 6% + 1%

Spirits - 4% - 5%

Beer & Cider + 1% - 3%

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Repositioned to Growth Repositioned to Growth -- Product Mix*Product Mix*

*Pro-forma including the Acquired Sites and excluding sites disposed in FY06 and to Trust Inns Ltd in Oct 06

Food 35%

Beer & Cider 31%

Wine& Soft Drinks 13%

Spirits 11%

Accommodation & Other 6%

Machines4%

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Rising pub usage by less frequent Rising pub usage by less frequent customerscustomers

44% visit a pub to eat at least once a monthSource: TNS Drinks Market Survey & Alcovision 2006

Monthly

Weekly

> 3x per week

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 1990 2000 2006

% Of Adults Visiting

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Capturing a disproportionate share of Capturing a disproportionate share of the growth in eating outthe growth in eating out

* Mintel Pub Catering August 2006** excludes the Acquired Sites

Compound Annual Growth In Value 2000-2006

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Eating Out Market* Pub Food Market* MAB**

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High food volumes at pub High food volumes at pub and company leveland company level

Average food sales per week Average meals per week

96 million meals per annum*

* including the Acquired Sites

£14,700

£6,100

Pub Restaurants Total Company

1950

930

Pub Restaurants Total Company

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Food PrioritiesFood Priorities

Create offers that are hard to replicate at home

Quality on the plate

Value for money

Freshly cooked & healthy

Responding to changing tastes

Catering for all occasions

Build kitchen capability

Prompt and attentive service

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£0

£2

£4

£6

£8

£10

£12

£14 EagleFarringdon

FreemasonsArms

(Hampstead)

Rose & Crown(Warwick)

Saxon Mill(Warwick)

Beefeater

Harvesterfull price

Chef & Brewer

TwoForOne

BrewersFayre

VintageInns

HungryHorse

EmberInns

PizzaExpress

TobyCarvery

HarvesterEarlyBird

JDW

SizzlingPubCo

PubCarvery

McDonalds

Average Price of a Main Meal (£s)

Value for money in all market segmentsValue for money in all market segments

PREMIUM MID-MARKET MASS MARKET

Source: Menurama

Mitchells & Butlers’ Formats

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Integrated Food and Drinks EconomicsIntegrated Food and Drinks Economics

Combining higher margins of drinks with faster growth of food

Informality and accessibility key to wide social appeal

Strong bar trade is central to profitability

Maximising ancillary drinks sales at the table

Drinks’ higher gross margins and lower employment costs underpin food value proposition

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Drinks PrioritiesDrinks Priorities

Focus on points of differentiation to “canned beer”

Widening range

Introduce new and innovative speciality beers

Wine, soft drinks and cider

Focus on presentation

Glassware and serve style

Improve serve quality

Glycol cooling systems now in 700 pubs

Develop non-beer drinks

Wine, soft drinks

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Widening the drinks rangeWidening the drinks range

Own Label 0 13Red 32 64White 66 111Rose 4 22Sparkling 12 22Total Wine 114 232 +118

Own Label 0 13Red 32 64White 66 111Rose 4 22Sparkling 12 22Total Wine 114 232 +118

Number of Products

2001 2006 +/-Standard Lager 3 7Premium Lager 4 18Speciality beer 0 18Cider 10 18Total Beer 17 61 +44

2001 2006 +/-Standard Lager 3 7Premium Lager 4 18Speciality beer 0 18Cider 10 18Total Beer 17 61 +44

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Product Innovation Product Innovation –– Draught WineDraught Wine

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Gaining share in the declining onGaining share in the declining on--trade trade beer marketbeer market

Sustainable profitability from market share gainsSource: BBPA

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

2003 2004 2005 2006

Off-trade volume

On-trade volume

MAB volume

Volume index

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MAB Managed Tenancies Supermarkets

£0.00

£0.50

£1.00

£1.50

£2.00

£2.50

£3.00

2004 2005 2006

Widening value gap Widening value gap

Average price of a pint of standard lager

MAB now 18p cheaper than managed competitionand 35p cheaper than tenancies

Source: AC Neilsen

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Driving productivity through capacity Driving productivity through capacity managementmanagement

Productivity gains key to overcoming £24m last year of regulatory and energy cost increases

Staff contribution per hour: +4%*

Increasing volumes enable

More productive deployment of staff

More accurate forecasting and scheduling

Increased earnings for staff

Higher capacity utilisation

Since FY 2003: Sales volumes up 13%, Staff hours up 4%

* Sales less hourly paid wages divided by number of hours worked

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Purchasing gainsPurchasing gains

Improved purchasing terms enabled reinvestment in higher food specification and gross margins maintained

Unit COGS held flat off-setting:

• duty

• contractual increases

• inflation

Gains from first year of freedom from beer tie

Logistics and technical service costs reduced

Upward pressure on commodity food prices contained

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MAB locations positioned in higher MAB locations positioned in higher growth marketsgrowth markets

* Includes Acquired Sites and after disposal to Trust Inns Ltd in October 2006

In 1990, c70% of the estate was in inner cities and industrial areas

Affluent Commuter Beltsand Urban Areas

24% of sales

City Centres/Town Centres25% of sales

Mid-Market Suburbia33% of sales

Disadvantaged InnerCities/Ex Industrial Areas

4% of sales

Mass Market Housing Estatesand Students14% of sales

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Acquired Sites Acquired Sites –– Conversion Progress in Conversion Progress in line with expectationsline with expectations

Intensive pre-acquisition preparations

Rapid implementation of site appraisals and conversions

25 sites reopened: 10% of estate

50 sites to have reopened by Christmas: 21% of estate

c.100 sites to have reopened by Easter: 40% of estate

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Growth in Pub RestaurantsGrowth in Pub Restaurants

Same outlet like for like sales +5.4%Bulls Head, Bistro, Meriden

c.180 sites from Acquired SitesNeighbourhood, casual dining growth in mid market suburbs

Market leading food volumes:

Harvester: 2,200 meals / pub / week

Toby: 2,500 meals / pub / week

Pub Carvery: 2,550 meals / pub / week

Segmenting the country pub dining marketPremium Country Dining

Bistro

Vintage Inns

Harvester, Windsor

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Residential PubsResidential Pubs

Same outlet like for like sales +4.7%

Major drinks market share gains

Repositioning to food: 20% sales mix

2nd half like for like food sales up 13%

50 conversions to Sizzling Pub Co and Ember in 06/07

Disposed smaller pubs with limited food prospects

The Fieldhouse, Ember - Solihull

The Barley Mow, Sizzling Pub Co - Banbury

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High Street / City Centre MarketsHigh Street / City Centre Markets

Same outlet like for like sales up 2.3%Blackfriar, Nicholson’s – Central London

25% of total sales

Central London: buoyant trading

Town Pubs: strong growth

Circuit venues: competition from later hours in local pubs

Maximise food opportunity

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Smoking Ban and Licensing ReformSmoking Ban and Licensing Reform

Repositioning the offers to overcome regulatory change

SmokingScottish experience weeks 1-7*

Food sales +7%Drinks sales -2%

80% of the England & Wales estate has external areas

Attracting new food customers to smoke free pubs

Licensing

Marginally positive for sales in FY06

Helping reduction in alcohol related disorder across the country

* To 18 November 2006

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OutlookOutlook

Widening consumer appeal of quality food pubs

Good start to new financial year

Consumer demand above expectations in 2006

Further polarisation in demand trends

Strong food and ancillary drinks growth

Beer decline intensifying

Priority of successfully converting acquired sites

Pipeline of c.400 investment opportunities in core estate

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SummarySummary

Focus on long term, sustainable, real growth

Eating out market leadership

Widening drinks market share gains

Scale productivity and purchasing gains

Powerful consumer formats generating high returns

Conversion pipeline

Generating and capturing asset appreciation

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Questions & AnswersQuestions & Answers

Bond Investor Briefing – 30 November 2006


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