B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
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BONDREPORTQTR 3 2015
WELCOME TO THE TENTH EDITION OF THE BOND REPORT
On the heels of what some have described as a sluggish end of summer for the sales market, the fall selling season is in full swing and the next few months are expected to be busy. The market feels more tempered, with transactions happening at a less frenzied and steady pace. With a strong economy and continued strength in employment in the city, we expect to continue on this path.
Many of the themes that have impacted the market for the last few years are still the same. Inventory remains tight and buyers are still competing for well-priced properties that come onto the market. There continues to be a disconnect between what is needed and what is being built, with construction and land purchase showing no signs of slowing down. There is great speculation about the ultra-luxury market experiencing a slowdown as supply has significantly outpaced demand.
Looking ahead, industry experts are keeping their eyes on a few other factors that could have an effect on the market over the next quarter. Global volatility in the last several months has been a hot topic. Foreign investment is expected to remain strong, if not get stronger as a result of the instability overseas. Despite the fact that the New York City market is now more expensive because of demand from many foreign investors, the market is still considered both a stable and safe haven for investments and a destination for aspirational homeowners. It will be interesting to see how the changing global market will affect regular homeowners and local property value longterm.
Credit conditions have eased slightly over the last year, but are still tight overall and will continue to impact first-time buyers the most where entry level housing is more dependent on financing than the higher price points where more purchases are made in cash. Interest rates are still at historical lows and while the Fed has announced plans to raise interest rates in 2015, they are expected to rise at a very slow rate.
The rise of outer boroughs has been in the works for some time now. Astoria, Long Island City and Brooklyn are taking the market by storm with new developments exceeding $1,000-$2,000 per square foot in Queens and $1,500 per square foot in prime Brooklyn. These areas have also experienced a surge in new businesses and conveniences that are make living there an attractive alternative to Manhattan.
The real estate market continues to be a complex industry to navigate with no two transactions being the same. As leaders in the industry, BOND is here to educate you on the current market and factors that may affect your transaction and guide you through each step of the homefinding and selling process to ensure the best possible outcome. If you have any questions regarding your specific needs, a BOND agent is ready to help.
We look forward to assisting you.
Noah Freedman, Partner,
BOND New York Real Estate
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
© 2014 BOND New York New York All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawals without notice. All property information, including but not limited to, square footage and number of bedrooms, is approximate. Exact measurements should be verified by your own attorney, architect, engineer, or zoning expert. BOND New York is a broker that supports Equal Housing Opportunity.
All source material for the BOND Report is provided by Urban Digs, Online Residential (OLR), and BOND New York’s proprietary listings database. This material is believed to be accurate, however is subject to errors and omissions.
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
BONDREPORT QTR 3 2015
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000Sep Nov Jan May Jul SepMar
Source: UrbanDigs.comPercentages Are Rounded.
LOOKING FORWARD
Active Listings: -5%Pending Sales: -21%
While the BOND Report presents a traditional historical snapshot of the market, we first present two charts indicating pending sales (listings in contract) versus active listings (available listings), for both year-over-year and within quarter 3 2015. This data compares sales volume amidst real-time inventory trends and offers the best indication of where the market is going.
After peaking in May, there was a 34.1% decrease in the number of pendings sales since the start of the first quarter as expected for this time of year. However, while seasonality can be attributed to the decrease in the number of pending sales over the last quarter, there was also a 20.59% decrease in pending sales year-over-year suggesting a comparatively slower paced market overall. Slower paced, but not slow. Overall market conditions have shifted slightly to ease the frenzy buyers experienced in the spring. However, inventory shortages are still an issue and are expected to be into the next quarter. Therefore, well-priced inventory in the re-sale market is still moving quickly and can continue to be picked up. As we head into the fall selling season, as expected, inventory increased 15.7% from the previous month. And while buyers may no longer be faced with frantic bidding wars, there is still strong competition for properties in the $2 million and under category.
The largest number of pending sales were on the Upper East Side followed by Greenwich Village and Chelsea. The fewest number of pending sales for quarter 3 2015 were in Nolita followed by Hamilton Heights and East Harlem.
Market Trends Within Qtr 3 2015Pending Sales -34% and Active Listings -1%
Market Trends September 2014 - September 2015Pending Sales -21% and Active Listings -5%
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
July Aug Sep
Active Listings: -1%Pending Sales: -34%
July Aug Sept
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
BONDREPORT QTR 3 2015
INWOOD/WASHINGTON HEIGHTS
42
MORNINGSIDE HEIGHTS/HARLEM
109
HAMILTON HEIGHTS
12
UPPER WEST SIDE
29
EAST HARLEM
22
UPPER EAST SIDE
180
CHELSEA
114
MIDTOWN EAST/CENTER
104
WEST VILLAGE
38
MURRAY HILL
112
TRIBECA
77
GRAMERCY/FLATIRON
102
BATTERY PARK CITY
44
LOWER EAST SIDE
43FINANCIAL DISTRICT/CIVIC CENTER
62
BOND HEAT INDEXNUMBER OF PENDING SALES - 3RD QTR 2015
For a more in-depth analysis of your neighborhood, contact your BOND agent today.
EAST VILLAGE
35
MIDTOWN SOUTH
34
KIPS BAY
34
SOHO
25
NOLITA
4
GREENWICH VILLAGE
123
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
BONDREPORT QTR 3 2015
LOOKING BACKQTR 3 2015 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2015 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2014
Properties Sold 2,792 -0.64% 2,810 +7.88% 2,588
Pending Sales 2,449 -35.84% 3,817 -20.59% 3,084
Avg Price $1,699,093 -5.19% $1,792,057 -2.59% $1,744,341
Median Price $975,000 +2.63% $950,000 +8.45% $899,000
Avg Price per Sq Ft $1,378.50 +1.09% $1,363.59 +1.43% $1,359
Total Inventory 11433 -2.89% -6.74% 12260
Total New Inventory 3321 -15.10% 3321 3048
40
45
50
55
60
65
July Aug Sep
70
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
80
60
50
40
Source: UrbanDigs.comPercentages Are Rounded.
Days on Market Within Q3 2015
Days on Market September 2014 - September 2015
The number of properties sold in quarter 3 2015 was down less than 1% quarter-over-quarter and up 7.88% year-over-year. Overall, marketwide prices remained stable with the average price showing a slight downtick of 5.19% quarter-over-quarter at $1,699,093 and almost no change at -2.59% year-over-year. The median price for quarter 3 2015 was $975,000 compared to $950,000 the previous quarter and $899,000 year-over-year. The average price per square ft remained stable for quarter 3 2015 was $1,378.50 compared to $1,363.59 the previous quarter and $1,359.50 in quarter 3 2014. The number of days on market within the quarter increased to 59 days at the end of the quarter 3 2015 compared to 43 days at the start of the quarter and can be attributed to seasonality.
July Aug Sept
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
BONDREPORT QTR 3 2015
*Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding
CLOSED SALES*
BY PRICE CATEGORY
BY SIZE YEAR-OVER-YEAR BY SIZE QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER
BY PROPERTY TYPE QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER
BY PROPERTY TYPE YEAR-OVER-YEAR
QTR
3 20
14QT
R 2
2015
QTR
3 20
15
0 20 40 60 80 100
$0–$500K $500K–$1M $1M–$2M $2M–$3M $3M–$5M $5M+
20%
STUDIOSTUDIO
CO-OP
1BR1BR
CONDO
2BR3BR+
QTR 3 2014
QTR 3 2015
QTR 3 2015
16% 35% 25% 7% 6%
16% 36% 24% 9% 6% 6%
QTR 2 2015QTR 3 2015
QTR 3 2014
58%41%
13%13% 15%15%
40%31%
QTR 3 2015
13% 15%
QTR 2 2015
51% 51%48% 48%59%41%
20% 36% 23% 9% 7% 5%
10%
15% 15%16% 16%
39% 39%29% 29%
13% 15%
39%31%
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
BONDREPORT QTR 3 2015CONDO MARKET MATRIX
QTR 3 2015 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2015 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2014Avg Price $2,341,482 -4.90% $2,462,146 -2.44% $2,400,000
Median Price $1,475,000 +14.34% $1,290,000 +13.55% $1,299,000
Avg Price per Sq Ft $1,582.12 +1.25% $1,562.56 +1.52% $1,558.37
Studio (median) $701,000 -1.96% $715,000 +11.62% $628,000
1 Bedroom (median) $1,009,900 +0.49% $1,005,000 +2.74% $983,000
2 Bedroom (median) $1,878,671 +3.79% $1,810,000 +4.37% $1,800,000
3+ Bedroom (median) $4,399,999 +13.26 $3,885,000 +18.92% $3,700,000
Pending condo sales year-over-year showed a decrease of 19.78% and a decrease of 34.7% within quarter 3 2015. Condo inventory showed almost no change year-over-year and was down less than 1% since the start of quarter 3 2015 however condo inventory is up 27% since the start of the year. The average price remained stable at $2,341,482 while the median price, $1,475,000, showed an increase of 14.34% quarter-over-quarter and 13.55% year-over-year. The three plus bedroom sector showed the greatest increase in median price up 13.26% quarter over quarter and up 18.92% year-over-year. The one bedroom median price sector showed almost no change quarter-over-quarter at $1,009,900.
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
July Aug Sep
Pending Sales -20% and Active Listings -.32%Condo September 2014 - September 2015
Pending Sales: -20% Active: -.32%
Pending Sales: -35% Active: -2%Source: UrbanDigs.com
Percentages Are Rounded.
2,000
2,200
2,400
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Sep Nov Jan May Jul SepMar
July Aug Sept
Pending Sales -35% and Active Listings -2%Condo Within Quarter 3 2015
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
BONDREPORT QTR 3 2015CO-OP MARKET MATRIX
QTR 3 2015 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2015 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2014Avg Price $1,207,760 -7.82% $1,310,170 -7.10% $1,300,000
Median Price $750,000 +0.67% $745,000 +9.01% $688,000
Avg Price per Sq Ft $1,062.90 -2.24% $1,087.30 +8.46% $980
Studio (median) $430,000 +6.17% $405,000 +13.16% $380,000
1 Bedroom (median) $695,000 +6.92% $650,000 +11.20% $625,000
2 Bedroom (median) $1,300,500 +0.97% $1,287,500 +8.33% $1,200,000
3+ Bedroom (median) $2,450,000 -18.20% $2,995,000 -12.50% $2,800,000
Total Inventory 8338 -6.82% 6038 -13.42% 6974
Total new Inventory 1698 -19.75% 1698 4.10% 1631The median price for quarter 3 2015 was $750,000 up 9.01% year-over-year and up less than 1% quarter-over-quarter. The average price per square foot increased 8.46% year-over-year up to $1,062.90 and almost no change quarter-over-quarter. With respect to size, co-op studios showed the greatest median price increase year-over-year by 13.16% at $430,000. Three plus bedrooms saw the largest median price decrease. The median price for three plus bedrooms was $2,450,000 down 18.20% quarter-over-quarter and down 12.50% year-over-year. Inventory was down 10.35% year-over-year and showed an increase of 1.18% since the start of the quarter. The number of pending sales were down 20.27% year-over-year and 33.41% within quarter 3 2015.
Source: UrbanDigs.comPercentages Are Rounded.
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
July Aug Sep
Pending Sales -33% and Active Listings +1%Co-op Within Quarter 3 2015
Pending Sales: -33% Active: 1%
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200Sep SepNov Jan Mar May Jul
Pending Sales: -20% Active: -10%
Co-op September 2014 - September 2015Pending Sales -20% and Active Listings -10%
July Aug Sept
B O N D N E W Y O R K . C O M
BONDREPORT QTR 3 2015
LUXURY MARKET MATRIX
TOWNHOUSE MARKET MATRIX
The luxury market is defined as the top 10% of all co-op and condo transactions. The entry threshold for quarter 3 2015 was 3,450,000. The average price for quarter 3 2015 was $6,682,966 down 20.73% quarter-over-quarter and 9.69% year-over-year. The median price was $5,396,725, down 11.38% quarter-over-quarter and up 5.82% year-over-year. The decrease in both average and median price quarter-over-quarter can be attributed to the unprecedented supply of luxury new development and the comparatively small demand.
The townhouse market is a unique market with the smallest inventory and buyer pool of any submarket. As a result the number of transactions are fewer and the data reflects this. The average price for quarter 3 2015 was $7,222,403 up 18.40% year-over-year. The average price per square foot for quarter 3 2015 was $1,534.64.
DID YOU KNOW...?More than $10 billion left China last year to invest in real estate globally, with nearly $3 billion of it heading to New York. Japanese investors bought $1.5B in NYC commercial properties in the past year.
QTR 3 2015 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2015 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2014Avg Price $6,682,966 -20.73% $8,431,036 -9.69% $7,400,000
Median Price $5,396,725 -11.38% $6,090,000 +5.82% $5,100,000
Avg Price per Sq Ft $2,444.38 -12.90% $2,806.53 -11.40% $2,759.00
QTR 3 2015 % CHG (QTR) QTR 2 2015 % CHG (YR) QTR 3 2014Avg Price $7,222,403 -4.41% $7,555,645 +18.40% $6,100,000
Median Price $4,250,000 -21.30% $5,400,000 +3.66% $4,100,000
Avg Price per Sq Ft $1,534.64 +7.24% $1,431 +2.04% $1,504.00
Source: The Real Deal, 2015
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