1 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Bonham Housing Action Plan
Current Conditions Statistical Profile
Produced for the Bonham Economic Development Corporation
June 28, 2018
By
Daniel Oney, Ph.D. Principal, Axianomics, LLC
9506 Mill Hollow Dr. Dallas, TX 75243
214-280-7765 [email protected]
2 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Contents
Preliminary Findings Page 3 Economic Data Page 5 Demographic Data Page 12 Housing Data Page 22
3 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Preliminary Findings
This document is the first phase of the Bonham Housing Market Action Plan (BHAP). It includes a series of
charts covering economic, demographic and housing market conditions. In most cases, these charts include
data for the City of Bonham, Fannin County, Texas and the U.S. This comparison provides benchmarks that
put Bonham’s situation in broader context. This information is the latest available and was compiled from
many sources including local, state and federal agencies and North Texas realtors. This data is the
foundation for the next steps in the BHAP. The immediate next tasks are to complete the market analysis
which will add:
1. Profiles of the most promising housing market segments in terms of buyer and renter
characteristics and housing types,
2. Actual housing demand in terms of units by segment and price point over five and ten-year forecast
windows, and
3. A simple financial model to evaluate the prospects of various housing products in the Bonham
market.
Once the market analysis is completed, the housing implementation plan will create strategies and
recommend policies for the City of Bonham to consider.
The following analysis does not represent a housing market forecast or financial feasibility. That
information depends on digging deeper into these results and focusing on the most promising options. Still,
these results are already hinting at some opportunities and challenges the City and its stakeholders will face
as they promote more housing investment. The following are some very preliminary and only partially
verified conclusions:
1. In recent years, Bonham has experienced a historic level of underinvestment in new housing.
Permit activity and the total dollar investment is at the lowest level in decades.
2. Bonham’s overall economy is strong and has been growing faster than the Texas economy.
Unemployment is lower in Fannin County than in Texas or the U.S. Job growth is healthy.
3. Even with this economic growth, Bonham and Fannin County have income levels and an income
distribution that are typical of small cities and rural areas. Fannin County is a healthy rural area, but
still has lower income levels than Texas overall or the U.S.
4. Existing home market is showing signs of demand exceeding supply.
5. Bonham and Fannin County demographics and education levels, while reflecting typical rural
community patterns, are not an obvious barrier to new housing investment.
6. Recent housing market trends risk putting financial stress on existing lower and middle-income
households.
4 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
7. Even without the benefit of a detailed cost analysis, some preliminary strategies and market
segments are hinted at by this data. Determining final product potential and market segments will
require more research. The following housing niches, among others, should be considered in the
next phase of the research:
a. Existing home renovation programs for renters and middle income first-time buyers,
b. New home construction in conventional subdivisions targeting outbound commuters,
c. Duplex and townhouse construction in older neighborhoods tailored to inbound
commuters and existing middle-income households,
d. Second home / recreational rentals to support demand for access to the Bois d’Arc Creek
Reservoir.
e. Modestly priced multi-unit projects targeting the senior market.
f. Also, prospects for conventional multi-family developments should be evaluated.
The greatest challenge that the City and its stakeholders will face is creating a successful housing strategy
that does not increase the burden on existing lower and middle-income residents. It is possible that most of
the promising new housing products can only be delivered at prices beyond access for most existing
residents. These new products may be very attractive, and considered affordable, to households
accustomed to living in the DFW metro area or who will be visitors to the new reservoir.
5 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
I. Economic Data
Local Area Personal Income
Development potential depends on local conditions and national trends. The charts in this section give
macroeconomic context to an emerging Bonham housing strategy. The number one macroeconomic
predictor of real estate development is broadly-defined economic growth. This is often measured by gross
domestic product (GDP). Since the last recession in 2008, the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Statistical
Area has had a faster growing economy than Texas or the nation overall. Bonham’s proximity to the
$511.6B DFW economy is a strong motivator for housing investment in the city. Bonham also can benefit
from activity in the Sherman-Denison MSA, which is defined as Grayson County. The $4.3B Sherman-
Denison economy has been growing at a compound annual rate of 3.4 percent since 2011.
Gross domestic product is not available for non-metropolitan counties. Another statistic, Local Area
Personal Income (LAPI) is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis for every county in the United
States. This personal income definition is more inclusive than more commonly used definitions. It includes
wage and salary income, income from business owners, dividends, interest and rental income and
government transfer programs (such as social security and “welfare” programs.) Over the last fifteen years
the correlation between GDP and LAPI is 99.7 percent. This gives us confidence in using LAPI as a broad
measure of economic activity at the county level.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics LAPI data.
We see strong annual growth rates in total personal income at the national, state and county level. When
we look at per capita personal income growth, however we see that Fannin County has been out
performing the nation and Texas. This growth is a solid foundation for housing investment in Bonham.
6 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Employment
Employment by place of residence counts people who have jobs no matter where those jobs are located.
This is the employment method used to calculate unemployment rates. It is commonly called household
employment. Total household employment in Fannin County has been growing steadily for the last seven
years after bottoming out in 2010 during the Great Recession.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW data.
Unemployment rates have fallen for several years and Fannin County has enjoyed lower unemployment
rates than the U.S. and Texas overall since 2015. A low unemployment rate of 3.3 percent in 2017 is a
strong incentive to workers and housing developers.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW data.
7 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Employment by place of work counts jobs where the work takes place. This measure is often called payroll
employment. Fannin County added 648 private sector jobs between 2012 and 2017. These are local jobs. In
addition, several public-sector employers have maintained a strong presence in the county including the
Bonham city government and school district, Fannin County government, the Sam Rayburn Memorial
Veterans Center and two state prisons (C. Moore Transfer Facility and Cole State Jail.) The chart below
excludes self-employed persons and those in partnership-type businesses. It also excludes government
employment and thus under counts Fannin County total employment. Manufacturing has added the most
jobs in the last five years (231) followed by construction (182) and retail (165.)
Fannin County Employment Change by Industry (Jobs in Fannin County)
Employment by Place of work, private only QCEW
Industry 2017 5-Year Change 5-Year CAGR
Agriculture & Natural Resources 122 27 5.1%
Mining 62 22 9.2%
Construction 358 182 15.3%
Manufacturing 724 231 8.0%
Utilities 64 (6) -1.8%
Wholesale 230 29 2.7%
Retail 984 165 3.7%
Transportaion & Warehousing 75 (28) -6.1%
Information 27 (4) -2.7%
Finance & Insurance 241 (26) -2.0%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 74 31 11.5%
Professional & Technical Services 118 15 2.8%
Management of Companies - - NA
Admin & Waste Services 91 (32) -5.8%
Educational Services - - NA
Health & Social Services 864 (26) -0.6%
Arts, Entertainment & Rec 63 33 16.0%
Accommodation & Food Services 493 42 1.8%
Other Services 138 (12) -1.7%
Unclassified 5 5 5.0%
Total 4,733 648 3.0%
8 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
The following chart examines Fannin County industry employment grouped into the three traditional
categories of production, distribution and service industries. Production includes natural resource, mining,
construction and manufacturing jobs. Distribution includes utilities, wholesale and retail trade and
transportation and warehousing. Services includes all other private-sector industries. As is typical in healthy
rural areas, Fannin County has seen its strongest growth in production sectors, followed by distribution
industries. In recent years, however the county has also begun to add service jobs. The following chart
shows compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for these industry groupings.
Total employment up by 3% annually (5-Year CAGR)
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW data.
9 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Earnings by Industry
The average earnings in Fannin County are almost $54,000 annually. Manufacturing jobs earn over $51,000
annually. The large federal workforce associated with Sam Rayburn Memorial Veterans Center earn on
average more than $93,000 annually. This and other core employment sectors represent a strong base for
housing upgrades or new home construction.
Fannin County Employment and Earnings (2016) Place of Work
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, LAPI data.
Industry Jobs
Average
Earnings
Forestry, fishing, and related activities 154 20,884$
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 201 54,130$
Utilities 85 87,714$
Construction 930 40,221$
Manufacturing 799 51,461$
Wholesale trade 340 57,705$
Retail trade 1,482 29,033$
Transportation and warehousing 261 35,898$
Information 69 32,942$
Finance and insurance 554 32,185$
Real estate and rental and leasing 414 20,633$
Professional, scientific, and technical services 456 22,563$
Management of companies and enterprises 46 2,419$
Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services 423 11,084$
Educational services 47 5,634$
Health care and social assistance 1,043 32,646$
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 188 7,151$
Accommodation and food services 644 15,619$
Other services (except government and government enterprises) 844 27,673$
Government and government enterprises 2,693 63,204$
Federal civilian 736 93,280$
Military 62 30,508$
State and local 1,895 52,823$
Total Jobs 11,672 53,607
10 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Commuting Data
The following infographic summarizes the commuting pattern for Fannin County. The green circular arrow
represents 3,443 Fannin County residents who live and work in the county. The dark green arrow on the left
represents 2,756 people who live outside Fannin County but who commute into the county for work. The
remaining green arrow represents 8,906 workers who live in Fannin County but who work outside the
county.
Employment Inflow and Outflow (Jobs)
Source: LEHC Origin-Destination Employer Household Dynamics data (2015.)
11 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
The largest number of inbound commuters come from Grayson County (565), followed by Collin County
(441.) Interestingly, 878 inbound commuters represent small numbers of commuters from many counties.
Source: LEHC Origin-Destination Employer Household Dynamics data (2015.)
The outbound commuters are focused on three counties: Dallas (1,992), Collin (1,620) and Grayson (1,595.)
Source: LEHC Origin-Destination Employer Household Dynamics data (2015.)
12 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
II. Demographic Data
While employment data is the starting point of any housing investment strategy, demographic data
provides important information for segmenting the market into different buyers and product categories.
Household size, resident occupation and income influence homebuying decisions. This section summarizes
key demographic statistics for real estate developers and home builders. Local leaders in Bonham can use
this information to better understand what the best new mix of housing will be for Bonham.
Demographic Method Note Group Quarters in Bonham and Fannin County
Some demographic and socioeconomic statistics included in the following charts have been adjusted to remove the 1,991 inmates at the two state prisons in Bonham. The Census Bureau policy is to count individuals where they are at the time of the Census or the annual American Community Survey. This includes people living in group quarters. Group quarters includes residents in correctional facilities. This practice can distort important demographic and socioeconomic measures. Axianomics, LLC has obtained data from the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) that permits adjustments to some American Community Survey data used in this section of the report. The methods used will be included in a pending appendix. Charts that have been adjusted in this manner are noted in the chart source line with “Adjusted for group quarters.”
Fannin County and the City of Bonham have a typical split of male and female population. They are not
substantially different from the Texas and U.S. pattern.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
13 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
The over 65 age group is a larger share of population in Fannin County and Bonham. The 20 to 34-year-old
age bracket is a smaller share than in the U.S. or Texas. This age distribution hints at two potential housing
segments. One focuses on seniors and includes a mix of small homes or multi-family properties for those
interested in downsizing. Another senior niche may be second homes on the Bois d’Arc Creek Reservoir.
The smaller 20 to 34-year-old segment is a demographic that is well represented in surrounding counties. A
strategy emphasizing small-city lifestyle may be effective at attracting more of this age group.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
Median age in Bonham matches the U.S. and is higher than Texas overall. Fannin County has a higher
median age than the City of Bonham, Texas or the U.S.
14 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
Race and ethnicity are separate demographic categories. Race includes white, black and several other
groups. The other group categories have been combined here because of the methods needed to remove
the group quarters population. Hispanic residents may be of any race. Fannin County and Bonham have a
higher share of white race residents than Texas or the U.S. Bonham’s black population is proportional to the
broader markets. Fannin County and Bonham Hispanic share is closer to the U.S. average than to Texas’s
much higher Hispanic share.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
15 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Households
Household type is one of the most important factors in housing choice. Married families are much more
likely to be home owners. Consistently, 80 percent of married households own their residence. Fifty
percent of non-married households own homes. Bonham has a smaller share of married households than
the larger geographies. This hints at the likely need to attract some investment in rental properties. This
investment can include a mix of renovated single-family homes and new construction of duplexes,
townhouses or traditional multi-family apartments.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
Bonham and Fannin County household sizes are typical for the U.S. but a little smaller than for Texas. This
implies a standard mix of home sizes can meet the housing needs of existing residents. Housing investment
for new residents should be coordinated with recruitment strategies for specific segments.
16 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
Education
As in many rural counties, education levels in Fannin County and the City of Bonham reflect a smaller share
of college graduates. Local residents are more likely to have some college experience or an associate’s
degree than the U.S. or Texas population. Bonham also has a smaller share of residents that did not
complete high school than Texas or the U.S. overall.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
Locally, residents with at least a high school diploma match or exceed the national rate. The share of
residents with at least a bachelor’s degree are smaller in Fannin County and Bonham than in Texas or the
U.S.
17 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
Household Occupation and Employment
The American Community Survey collects occupation and employment information. While this sample data
is not as current as the summary indicators reported above, they do provide some context when comparing
Bonham to other areas. Occupations are grouped into five major categories such as production and
transportation workers or managers. Most industries include a mix of occupations. Locally, residents are
more likely to hold production or transportation occupations. Most other occupational categories are
similar to national and state norms.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
18 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
When comparing the industries in which residents work (regardless of occupation), they are more likely to
work in industries that produce goods than workers in Texas or the nation overall. There is also a smaller
share of workers who have jobs in service industries. Bonham’s higher government worker share is likely
due to the large institutions in the city.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
The following charts give more detailed information on the industries in which residents work. Among
production industries, manufacturing plays a larger role locally than nationally or Texas.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
19 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Bonham residents are less likely to work in transportation, warehouse and retail jobs than residents of the
U.S., Texas or Fannin County overall.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
Among the service industries, Bonham differs most by having a smaller share of residents working in
professional, scientific and technical, and administrative and waste services. Finance, insurance and real
estate (FIRE) play a larger role for Bonham residents.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
20 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Household Income
Household income is an essential variable to consider when identifying housing market segments for a
community. Bonham and Fannin County have a larger share of households in the lower middle-income
segment ($15 to $34.9K.) Many of these households are probably good rental candidates. The over $150K
segment is relatively small but represents an important target population.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
Average household income is lower locally than in Texas or the U.S. overall. The overall income level,
however, is less important than the size of market segments at different income levels.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
21 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Per capital income levels locally mirror the lower household income averages.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.) Adjusted for group quarters.
22 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
III. Housing Data
Sources of information for the housing market include data reported through the American Community
Survey. This data is most useful for benchmarking Bonham to state and national levels. More current data
from the North Texas Real Estate Information System draws on Multiple Listing Services transactions and
gives a more focused and current picture of the housing market. Charts from both sources follow.
Bonham has a higher share of vacant housing units than is typical nationally or in Texas. This may represent
the potential to supply rental or less expensive ownership properties through a home renovation program.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
Vacancy rates are high among Bonham rental properties (homes and apartments). The vacancy rates are
also higher for homes intended for ownership.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
23 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Housing Stock and Expenses
The mix of housing in Bonham is more concentrated in single family homes and small multi-unit buildings
such as duplex and 3 to 4-unit buildings. This is common in older neighborhoods such as around a historic
downtown. Bonham can build on this historic pattern by supporting new housing, especially near the
downtown that includes a mix of housing types. A mix of housing sizes in a neighborhood can permit
households to remain in the neighborhood and upsize or downsize as their life circumstances change.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
24 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
The age of Bonham’s housing mix is like the U.S. overall. Significantly, there is a smaller than typical share of
homes built since 2010.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
In terms of rooms (excluding bathrooms), the most common housing unit size in Bonham are four-room
houses. There is also a substantial share of five-room houses. These represent smaller, older homes that
can continue to play an important role in Bonham’s housing market.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
25 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Two and three-bedroom homes are most common in Bonham. Many of these homes are good candidates
for starter homes or rental properties.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
Bonham has a higher share of rental units. Many of these are single-family homes marketed as rental
properties. This large rental segment may represent a potential supply of renovated starter homes and
higher quality rental homes if upgraded.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
26 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
From the American Community Survey, results from homeowner responses show that two thirds of homes
in Bonham were valued at less than $100,000. Other data sources later in the report provide more recent
measures of home prices. This data gives a good comparison of the relative mix of home prices in Bonham
relative to the state and nation. A challenge for the Bonham housing policy will be encouraging new
investment without causing a financial shock to existing residents in more modestly priced homes.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
27 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Average mortgage payments are lower in Bonham that in Texas or the U.S. This partly reflects the smaller
and older housing stock in Bonham.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
The lower mortgage rates translate into overall lower ownership costs for Bonham home owners. More
than half of Bonham homeowners are paying less than 20 percent of their income to maintain their home
(this includes mortgage, insurance, taxes, utilities and home association fees.) This does not necessarily
imply that many households in Bonham have significant extra income available to pay for larger, new
homes.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
28 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Rent paid by Bonham renters is generally lower than in Texas and the U.S. Ninety-one percent of renters
are paying less than $1,000 monthly. Rents over $1,500 a month were not represented in the most recent
survey data.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
29 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Even though rents in Bonham tend to be lower than in Texas, for many residents, these payments are
taking up a large share of their income. Seventy-six percent of Bonham residents are paying more than 25
percent of their income on rent compared to 60 percent in Texas.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year 2012-16.)
30 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Building Permits
Home construction in Bonham appears to be at the lowest level in many decades. Based on single-family
home permit data from the Census Bureau, the recent business cycle has seen the fewest new home
permits since 1980. Since 2008, an average of only eight new home permits have been issued in Bonham.
This is one half to one third the number seen in past business cycles.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau building permit data.
Multifamily permits are also much lower during the current business cycle. The city has seen an average of
only four multi-family units permitted annually since 2008.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau building permit data.
31 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
The value of new single-family home permits has increased steadily each business cycle since 1980. The
average permit value exceeded $134,000 in this most recent business cycle. These values are exceeding
existing home appraised values as reported below.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau building permit data.
The American Community Survey data showed that Bonham’s housing values were skewed toward the
lower end of the distribution. Even so, appraised market values for Bonham homes have increased in recent
years. This followed several years where values were not significantly higher than at the start of the Great
Recession in 2008.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of Fannin Central Appraisal District Certified Value Summaries.
32 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Existing home sales prices in Bonham, defined as ZIP code 75418, have been increasing rapidly. These
existing home sales prices are higher than appraised values and higher than many new home permit values
in recent years. While this may be putting pressure on many local home buyers, it reflects the pressure of
steady demand and too little supply.
Source: Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of NTREIS data..
In Fannin County, average existing home sales prices have been running consistently higher than in
Bonham, even as Bonham prices gained quickly in the last year.
Source: Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of NTREIS data..
33 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Residential Investment
A look at building permit values confirms the recent underinvestment in housing in Bonham. The total value
of new housing permits during the current expansion is half what was seen in the previous expansion.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau building permit data.
When presented in terms of annual average investment by business cycle, the level of underinvestment in
Bonham housing is even more dramatic. Annual residential investment has been only about one third of
the value seen in the last expansion.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau building permit data.
34 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Home Sale Statistics
The volume of home sales has increased some in the last four years. Sales in Bonham have been gradually
growing each year and exceeded sales in the rest of Fannin County in the first quarter of 2018. These stable
numbers indicate that the market should be able to support sales of new homes, depending on how they
are priced.
In the last four years, the supply of existing homes for sale in Fannin County has steadily decreased. This
decreasing supply represents a housing market that is experiencing more demand than can currently be
met. Months’ supply is based on average sales in the previous 12 months with no new listings.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of North Texas Real Estate Information System data.
35 Financial Analysis Does Not Constitute Investment Advice – For Municipal Planning Purposes Only
Our final housing market statistic is days on the market (DOM) for existing homes for sale. DOM has
decreased in the last few years, but not significantly in the last two years. Pricing and seller expectations
may be a factor. Another potential explanation is that existing homes do not meet the size or amenity
expectations of current shoppers.
Source: Axianomics, LLC analysis of North Texas Real Estate Information System data.