Boston Public Schools Strategies to serve off-track youth · 2018-05-23 · years behind their...

Boston Public SchoolsStrategies to serve off-track youthSummary of findings

EY-Parthenon | Page 2

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BPS has established its North Star: “Our graduates are ready for college,

career, and life. As a city and a district, we must ensure that 100% of students

are prepared for college, career, and life in the 21st century.”

Project overviewImproving graduation outcomes for students who fall off track in high school is fundamental to realizing the BPS North Star of college, career and life readiness

► BPS has seen meaningful improvements in both the district graduation and dropout rates over the past

decade.

► Despite this progress, the fact remains that thousands of high school students today are two or more

years behind their peers (“off track to graduate”); more often than not, students who fall this far behind

do not go on to graduate in six years.

► To make the BPS North Star a reality, BPS is considering the fundamental issues that can change the

outcomes of students who may fall off track to graduate.

► EY-Parthenon, sponsored by the Barr Foundation, has worked with BPS since August 2017 to help

BPS understand:

► Who is falling off-track for graduation? Where are they enrolled, and when do they fall off track?

► What factors can be identified early that suggest a student may be likely to fall off track?

► What are the school- and system-level conditions that have the most significant impact on

academically at-risk and off-track students?

Source: BPS interviews; BPS website


Project overviewThousands of students in BPS high schools have fallen “off track,” and this figure has not declined significantly in the past decade

Source: BPS data; EY-Parthenon analysis

18% of all BPS high school students were

off track at the start of the 2015-16 school

year

Ten years ago, when this study was first

conducted, 20% of all BPS high school

students were off track

A high school student who is “off-track to

graduate” or “off-track” has fallen at least two

years behind for his or her age

There were ~3,300 off-track students in

BPS high schools in SY2015-16, plus

thousands more who are of school age but have

dropped out


Project overviewBPS provided blinded student data to enable an in-depth data analysis to understand when, where and why students fall off-track to graduate

Data Methodology

► BPS provided the EY-Parthenon team with multiple data

points on all students enrolled in grades 6 through 12 from

SY2009-10 through SY2016-17 in a blinded format, including:

► Demographic information (including free and reduced

lunch eligibility, special education status, and English

learner status)

► Suspension records

► Enrollment and attendance records

► MCAS or PARCC performance data for grades 8 and 10

► Course performance and credit accumulation records for

grades 6 through 12

► Student outcomes

► The “off-track to graduate” definition is based on BPS-

provided student data and was confirmed with BPS as part of

the project

► In this study, we use a “cohort view” to follow two cohorts:

the Class of 2014 and the Class of 2017

► The Class of 2017 cohort is used to understand what factors

contribute to student success within BPS’s current portfolio of

high schools

► These students began 9th grade in SY2013-14, with an

expected four-year graduation date of June 2017

► With the Class of 2014 cohort, we can track students’

outcomes over a six-year period to learn about student

outcomes beyond four- and five-year graduation rates

► These students began 9th grade in SY2010-11, with an

expected four-year graduation date of June 2014

► The data enable our team to observe the academic

performance and suspension patterns of both cohorts of

students during 8th grade to understand potential middle

school factors that impact high school outcomes

► We also take a “snapshot view” of the 2015-16 school

year to analyze BPS’ high school population at a recent,

single point in time


Agenda

► BPS high schools

► Off-track to graduate population in BPS

► Key findings

► Recommendations


Context: BPS high schoolsOver the past decade, BPS has seen improvement in graduation rates overall and for every sub-group

Source: MA DESE data; BPS data; EY-Parthenon analysis

BPS graduation rates by sub-group,

2006-17

The BPS dropout rate also fell

by more than half in the past

decade, from 9.1% in 2007 to

4.4% in 2017.

Overall Students with disabilities(19% of HS enrollment

in 2015-16)

English learners(23% of HS enrollment

in 2015-16)

Low-income students(71% of HS enrollment

in 2015-16)

Improvement in

graduation rates

(2006-17)


Context: BPS high schoolsDespite this progress, there are persistent racial achievement gaps in BPS student outcomes

Source: MA DESE data; BPS data; EY-Parthenon analysis

BPS graduation rates by race/ethnicity,

2006-17

Graduation outcomes

for white and Asian

students remain 10-15

points higher, on

average, than their

black and Latino

classmates.

Overall Asian Black LatinoWhite(10% of HS enrollment

in 2015-16)

(12% of HS enrollment

in 2015-16)


in 2015-16)


in 2015-16)


Context: BPS high schoolsBPS enrolled over 18,000 students in SY2015˗16 across its 37 high schools, which are differentiated in many ways, including their modes of admission

* Note: While BPS classifies Lyon as a special populations school, 50% of the school’s seats are open enrollment while the other 50% are special education. For our analyses, we therefore include

them as open enrollment; **O’Bryant offers a limited number of seats to incoming 10th graders, as well; ***Pilot schools have more autonomy around hiring, budget, curriculum and admissions;

however, not all pilot school are selective; †Horace Mann charter schools are charter schools embedded in traditional districts, with the autonomy of organization and over budgets and hiring decisions

of teachers and staff

Source: BPS data as of September 15, 2015; some enrollment numbers may differ from DESE reports due to differences in measurement timing and student mobility

Open enrollment high schools

~10,500 students (~57% of enrollment)

Exam high schools

~4,000 students (~22% of enrollment)

► Another Course to College (ACC)

► Boston International High School

► Brighton High School

► Burke High School

► Charlestown High School

► Community Academy of Science and Health (C.A.S.H.)

► Dearborn STEM Academy

► East Boston High School

► English High School

► Excel High School

► Madison Park High School

► Margarita Muñiz Academy

► Mary Lyon Pilot High School1

► Quincy Upper School

► Snowden International

► TechBoston Academy

► Urban Science Academy

► West Roxbury Academy

► Boston Latin Academy

► Boston Latin School

► John D. O’Bryant School of Mathematics and Science

Special population schools

~400 students (~2% of

enrollment)

EL school

~80 students (<1% of enrollment)

► Newcomers Academy

Schools accessible to any Boston student through a centralized lottery-based choice process

Schools that admit students based on the student’s grade point average and score on the Independent Schools Entrance Exam in grades 7 or 9**

Selective application schools

~1,600 students (~9% of

enrollment)

► Boston Arts Academy

► Boston Community Leadership Academy (BCLA)

► Fenway High School

► New Mission High School

Pilot schools*** that use a selective process, such as a

essay or an artistic portfolio, to admit students

► Boston Green Academy

► Edward M. Kennedy Health Careers Academy

Horace Mann charter schools†

that use an open lottery process to admit students separate from the central BPS choice process

Lottery admissions schools

~600 students (~3% of

enrollment)

Alternative schools

~1,200 students (~6% of

enrollment)

► Boston Adult Technical Academy

► Boston Collaborative High School

► Boston Day and Evening Academy

► Community Academy

► Dorchester Academy

► Greater Egleston High School

Schools intended to serve students not served well in

traditional settings

Schools designed to serve students with disabilities who require

specialized services and settings

BPS uses the following categories to categorize its 37 schools based on mode of admissions

► Carter Center

► Henderson Inclusion School

► Horace Mann

► McKinley Schools

EY-Parthenon | Page 10Note: 159 students who are Native American or who do not identify their race or ethnicity are not included due to sample size issues


High school enrollment by race/ethnicity

Snapshot view,SY2015-16

Context: BPS high schoolsBlack and Latino students were significantly more likely to be enrolled in open enrollment schools, while the majority of white and Asian students were enrolled in exam and selective schools

EY-Parthenon | Page 11Note: Please see Appendix for definitions of English Learner Development (ELD) levels


High school enrollment by ELD status

Snapshot view, SY2015-16

Context: BPS high schoolsWhile exam and selective schools enrolled ~40% of students who are not English learners, less than a fifth of English learners were enrolled in those schools

EY-Parthenon | Page 12Note: Please see Appendix for definitions of special education settings


High school enrollment by IEP status

Snapshot view SY2015-16

Context: BPS high schoolsStudents with substantially separate special education designations were underrepresented in exam and selective schools


Agenda



► Key findings

► Recommendations


Off-track to graduate populationThe definition of “off-track to graduate” is based on students’ age and credits, and one in four students met this definition during their high school career

A student who is off-track to graduate is one who is at least two years off-pace relative

to typical age and credit patterns of graduates in BPS high schools

Age and credit thresholds fordefining off-track to graduate

Age Credits

16Fewer than 5.5 credits

(5.5 credits is equivalent to one year of HS on

average in BPS schools)

17 Fewer than 11 credits

18 Fewer than 16.5 credits

19+ Fewer than 22 credits

Note: This definition has been confirmed with BPS

Note: The Class of 2017 cohort described on this page includes high school students enrolled in BPS-affiliated Horace Mann charters. The cohort view was built using BPS ODA data with guidance

from DESE. For the SY2015-16 snapshot view, a student was counted as off-track to graduate based on their age on September 1, 2015, and credits accumulated in the prior year. A student is not

included in this count if they were not enrolled within the month of September 2015

Source: BPS data; MA DESE data; BPS website; EY-Parthenon analysis

Cohort view:

In the class of 2017 graduating cohort,

~24% of students became off-track for

graduation by this definition at some

point during their high school career.

Snapshot view:

In the 2015-16 school year, 3,308

students were off-track, ~18% of the

high school population.


Off-track to graduate populationOpen enrollment schools served the vast majority of off-track students in SY2015-16, with exam and selective schools serving very few

Note: Margarita Muñiz is not displayed on this chart, as credit data appears to be missing for most students enrolled in the school; school enrollment numbers reflect

enrollment as of September 2015


Number of off-track students relative to total school population

Snapshot view,SY2015-16

Nearly two-thirds of the off-track population

were concentrated in 10 schools:

BDEA, East Boston, Brighton, Charlestown, BATA,

Greater Egleston, Madison Park, English and Burke

EY-Parthenon | Page 16Note: Analysis excludes non-diploma bound students


-4%

-4%-15%

-1%

-10%

-5%

+7%

+7%

Off-track to graduate populationThe off-track student population reflected demographic opportunity and achievement gaps that appear throughout Boston Public Schools

Off-track status

by special education status

Off-track status by

ELD status

Off-track status

by race/ethnicity

BPS high school student population by off-track status and demographic,

SY2015-16


Off-track to graduate populationSubstantial portions of every demographic subgroup in the 2017 fell off track to graduate

Note: Analysis reflects students’ IEP status, ELD level and self-identified gender and race/ethnicity at time of arrival to BPS; analysis excludes the 91 students who self-identified as Native

American or Other, due to sample size issues; analysis excludes non-diploma bound students. *Students without differentiated needs includes all students who do not have an IEP, are not

English learners, and are not eligible for free lunch


Within a given

race, the disparity

was most acute on

the basis of gender

between black

females and males.

BPS high school student population by off-track status and student characteristics,

Class of 2017 cohort

Race/ethnicityELD statusIEP status


Off-track to graduate populationWhile BPS has succeeded in graduating students who stay on track, off-track students have had very low rates of graduation

On-track students:

graduation outcomes

Off-track students:

graduation outcomes

84% of on-track*

students

graduated

within four years

89% of on-track

students

graduated

within six years

25% of off-track

students

graduated

within four years

36% of off-track

students

graduated

within six years

*Students who are on-track are those who never fell off track at any point in high school by the age and credit definition described on Slide 14

Note: Data is shown for the Class of 2014 cohort; analysis excludes non-diploma bound students



Off-track to graduate populationLarge numbers of students were falling off-track in high school despite showing no early warning indicator signs in the 8th grade

*Note: 1,058 students fell off track in the Class of 2017 cohort, which had 4,417 diploma-bound students; analysis excludes non-diploma bound students; core course

failures include English or math course failures; the definition of EWIs was confirmed with BPS Source: BPS data; EY-Parthenon analysis

Off-track population by early warning indicator status


Half of the students who fall off-track could likely not have been identified prior to their high school years, either because

they did not express early warning indicators or because they entered the BPS system for the first time in high school.

“Early Warning Indicators” (EWIs)* are

factors students display in the 8th grade:

► Attendance: Less than 85%

attendance

► Discipline: 1 or more days suspended

out-of-school

► Core course failure: 1 or more core

courses failed

► MCAS: Warning level on both 8th

Grade MCAS


Off-track to graduate populationStudents with one or more EWIs had a higher likelihood of falling off track in the Class of 2017 cohort

Note: Analysis only considers students who were enrolled in BPS for 8th grade in SY2012-13. Source: BPS data; EY-Parthenon analysis

Percentage of students who fall off-track by number of EWIs



Agenda



► Key findings

► Recommendations


Key findingsSeveral key findings point to opportunities and challenges for BPS to better prevent and serve students falling off track

► Many open enrollment schools are not meeting the high needs of many of their students – and

demand for these schools has fallen over time

► Struggling performance: substantial portions of students – both those with and without 8th grade

warning indicators – are falling off track in open enrollment high schools

► Declining demand: many open enrollment schools have experienced significant enrollment declines

over the past decade; a substantial majority of seats in these schools are filled as a result of

admissions policy decisions rather than student and family choices in the BPS admissions lottery

► Signs of promise: some open enrollment schools consistently show that it is possible to more

effectively serve students who have substantial and diverse needs, and there is an opportunity for BPS

to learn from these open enrollment schools to dramatically improve results in the schools that are

lagging today

► Part of the difficulty for open enrollment schools results from the stratification of the BPS system,

in which high concentrations of need in a subset of schools exacerbate the challenge of helping

students succeed

► Funding of BPS high schools, while differentiated on the basis of Special Education and English

Learner status, does not fully reflect the broader diversity and intensity of need across schools

► Students who eventually become off-track frequently transfer from school to school within BPS –

and often experience poor outcomes when they transfer

► Alternative education schools, on average, are not successfully re-engaging off-track students,

and students seeking a placement in alternative schools are frequently unable to find one

1

2

3

4

5

Note: Please refer to the report, Equity and Excellence for All: Unlocking Opportunities for Off-Track Youth in BPS High Schools, for further details


Agenda



► Key findings► School performance

► Declining demand

► Signs of promise

► Stratification of need

► Resource allocation

► Student mobility

► Alternative education

► Recommendations


Key findings: school performanceFor the Class of 2017, the number of students with Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) who fell off track varied by high school

Note: Analysis excludes students who were not enrolled in BPS for 8th or 9th grades; analysis excludes non-diploma bound students


Percentage of students with EWIs who fell off track by 9th grade school,


Open enrollment schools

Selective schools with applications

Exam schools


In open enrollment schools, on

average, 56% of students who could

be identified as at-risk prior to 9th

grade went on to fall off track.


Percentage of students without EWIs who fell off track by 9th grade school

Class of 2017 Cohort

Key findings: school performanceIn many open enrollment high schools, a substantial portion of students withoutEWIs fell off track during high school

Note: Analysis excludes students who were not enrolled in BPS for 8th or 9th grades as EWI data is not available for these students; analysis excludes non-diploma bound students




Exam schools


In open enrollment schools, on

average, 22% of students* who did

not display 8th grade EWIs still

went on to fall off track.


Key findings: school performanceTo assess schools’ performance more robustly, a regression analysis of expected graduation rates was conducted using both student and school factors

Note: The analysis considers 27 open enrollment, selective and exam high schools, and 3,101 students of the Class of 2017 cohort who were enrolled in a BPS middle

school and one of these schools as first-time 9th graders in the fall of 2013 and excludes non-diploma bound students; all school factors reflect the concentration of

students with EWIs who were enrolled in BPS in 8th grade and who are in the 9th grade classes of actual BPS high schools in the 2015-16 school year


Student

factors

School

factors

Expected 4-year

graduation rate

Based on a student’s background

and the composition of their high

school, how likely are they to

graduate in four years?

EWIs:

► Low 8th grade attendance

► Failing to pass one or more 8th

grade core course(s)

► One or more days of out-of-school

suspension in 8th grade

► Receiving a “Warning” on both 8th

grade MCAS exams

Other academic differentiators:

► Entering high school over age 14

► Substantially separate special

education status

► ELD 1-3 status

% of students with EWIs:

Share of the incoming 9th grade class

with any of the following 8th grade

indicators:

► Below 85% attendance

► One or more core course failures

► One or more suspension days

► Warning on both MCAS exams

We analyzed a variety of other student and school factors and found them to not be statistically significant in this regression

analysis, including student-level variables of race/ethnicity, gender, home neighborhood, home language, FRL eligibility, FLEP or

ELD 4-5 status, special education inclusionary status, administrative assignment, and a number of school variables, including

average class size and the concentration effects of FRL, ELD status, and special education


Key findings: school performanceComparing expected and actual four-year graduation rates identified many open enrollment schools as having potentially underperformed their expectations

*Expected based on the data analysis

Note: Expected and actual graduation rates are shown only for students in the Class of 2017 cohort who were enrolled in BPS in 8th grade and in their respective high

schools as first-time 9th graders in 2013-14 (n=3,101); expected graduation rates based on regression analysis


Actual vs. expected* four-year graduation rates by 9th grade school,


Expected four-year graduation rate

Actu

al fo

ur-

ye

ar

gra

du

atio

n r

ate

Actual = Expected



Exam schools


“Over-performers”:Schools with a greater-than-

expected four-year graduation rate

in the Class of 2017 cohort

“Under-performers”:Schools with a lower-than-expected

four-year graduation rate in the



Agenda










► Recommendations


Key findings: declining demandMany open-enrollment schools have also experienced declining enrollment over the past decade

Note: In DESE data reports; Newcomer’s Academy is included within Boston International; current enrollment is measured in September, BINCA’s peak enrollment doesn’t occur until later in the

year, so they are excluded from this analysis; from SY2015-18, Burke and Dearborn shared a building, which could affect Burke’s enrollment numbers; however, enrollment at the school was

declining at ~4% per year prior to co-location and the schools will occupy separate buildings in fall 2018

Source: BPS data; DESE Data; EY-Parthenon analysis

Peak high school enrollment v. recent enrollment,

throughout SY2008-09 – SY2016-17

Open enrollment schools Selective schools with applications Exam schoolsLottery admissions schools

Schools that were at peak enrollment in SY2016-17


Key findings: declining demandDemand to attend many open enrollment schools – as measured by seats filled after the first round of student assignment – has been low

Note: School choice lottery round for SY2015-16; in DESE data reports, Newcomer’s Academy is included within Boston International; current enrollment is measured

in September, BINCA’s peak enrollment doesn’t occur until later in the year, so they are excluded from this analysis; Madison Park has eight students that were

recruited and admitted outside of the choice system via letter; from SY2015-18, Burke and Dearborn shared a building, which could affect Burke’s enrollment numbers;

however, enrollment at the school was declining at ~9% per year prior to co-location


Open enrollment schools Selective schools with applications Exam schoolsLottery admissions schools

Peak 9th grade enrollment v. entering 9th graders by assignment,

SY2008-09 – SY2015-16


Key findings: declining demandUltimately, enrollment at several open enrollment high schools has been driven by policy decisions such as program placement and administrative assignment, according to data analysis

ExamSelective

admissions

Lottery

admissionsOpen enrollment

*Indicates that a student received any school ranked in Round 1, and does not necessarily reflect if this school choice was in a student’s Top 3 ranking

Note: “Peak” enrollment is here defined as the maximum 9th grade enrollment a school has experienced over the past decade; school assignment data is shown for first-time 9th graders as of

September 2015, and therefore does not include late entrants or repeating 9th graders; the September snapshot does not accurately reflect enrollment at BINCA, which receives many late

entrants, so it is excluded from this analysis; beginning in SY2015, Burke and Dearborn have shared a building – this co-location could affect Burke’s enrollment numbers, though enrollment at

the school was declining at ~4% per year prior to co-location and the schools will be in separate buildings beginning in SY2018-19


Peak 9th grade enrollment v. entering 9th graders by assignment,

SY2008-09 – SY2015-16


Agenda










► Recommendations


Key findings: signs of promiseRecent years have shown progress: in the Class of 2017 cohort, students with and without EWIs fell off track at lower rates than in the Class of 2014 cohort

Note: Analysis only considers students who were enrolled in BPS for 8th grade in SY2012-13


Percentage of students who fall off-track over four years by number of EWIs,

Class of 2014 cohort vs. Class of 2017 cohort

No EWIs Any 1 EWI Multiple EWIs

In open enrollment

schools, 33% of

students without

EWIs fell off track in

the 2014 cohort, as

compared to 22% in

the 2017 cohort.


Key findings: signs of promise TechBoston Academy exceeded district averages in graduation outcomes and family demand

Note: Relative performance based on regression analysis; “Stability rate” indicates the share of the cohort’s first-time 9th grade class that remained enrolled in the

school throughout high school; all graduation and stability rates shown are 4-year outcomes of Class of 2017 students who were enrolled in a given school as first-time

9th graders in 2013-14 and who attended a BPS school for 8th grade

Source: BPS data: EY-Parthenon analysis

Open Enrollment Average

Performance relative to expected

graduation rate,

TechBoston Academy

Percent of seats filled by Round 1,

SY2015-16


Key findings: signs of promiseMany open enrollment schools have made progress over the past three years across several metrics, though absolute grad and off-track rates have remained a challenge

Note: Analysis only considers students who were first-time 9th graders in SY2015-16; differentiated needs include special education students served in substantially

separate environments, SLIFE students, English Learners with ELD levels 1-3, students with 1 or more EWIs, and students 1 or more years overage in 9th grade;

students with multiple unique needs are assigned to only one category based on the hierarchy ordered here; all graduation rates shown are 4-year outcomes of Class

of 2017 students who were enrolled in a given school as first time 9th graders in 2013-14 and who attended a BPS school for 8th grade


66% 79% 68%

+16pp+26pp+14pp

Burke East Boston English

Improvement in open enrollment schools between the class of

2014 and 2017 cohorts

Signs of promise: Improvement in graduation rates between the Class of 2014 and Class of 2017 cohorts

Despite persistent challenges:Though Absolute graduation rates for the Class of 2017 cohort remain below 80%


Key findings: signs of promiseA handful of open enrollment schools have consistently outperformed expectations, though most schools have a mixed record on student outcomes

Note: Expected and actual graduation rates are shown only for students who were enrolled in BPS in 8th grade and in their respective high schools as first-time 9th

graders; Margarita Muniz and Dearborn did not have a full cohort for the class of 2014 and thus do not have 2014 performance for comparison; expected graduation

rates based on regression analysis


2014 v. 2017 over/under performance by 9th grade school,

Class of 2014 cohort vs. Class of 2017 cohort

2014 performance

2017 p

erf

orm

ance


Selective schools

Exam schools


Potential

improvement

(8 schools)

Trend of over-

performance

(5 schools)

Trend of under-

performance

(6 schools)

Potential decline

(6 schools)

Above

expecta

tions

Aboveexpectations

Belowexpectations

Belo

wexpecta

tions


Key findings: signs of promiseSome open enrollment schools have been graduating their students at much higher rates than other schools with similar student bodies

Note: All data is shown for students in the Class of 2017 cohort who were enrolled in BPS in 8th grade and in the respective high school as first-time 9th graders in the

fall of 2013; expected graduation rates based on regression analysis


Actual cohort four-year graduation outcomes by 9th grade school,


Based on the

students they

enroll, these pairs

of schools would

be expected to

have similar

graduation rates,

yet they produce

different outcomes


Agenda










► Recommendations


Key findings: stratification of needBased on their students’ early warning indicators, all open enrollment schools had an expected four-year graduation rate of below 80% in the data analysis

Note: Expected graduation rates are shown only for students in the Class of 2017 cohort who were enrolled in BPS in 8th grade and in their respective high schools as

first-time 9th graders in 2013-14 (n=3,101); predicted graduation rates based on regression analysis

*Expected graduation rate is based on data analysis by EY-Parthenon


Expected* four-year graduation rates by 9th grade school,




Exam schools



Key findings: stratification of needLess than half of all black and Latino students attended a high school with an expected graduation rate above 70% during SY2015-16

Note: Alternative education and special populations schools were excluded from this analysis, as they do not have expected graduation rates due to sample size issues; Students who

identify as Native American and students who do not identify their race/ethnicity are not included due to sample size issues; Expected graduation rates based on regression analysis


High school placement by graduation odds and race



Key findings: stratification of needIn part due to BPS assignment policies, many open enrollment schools served a student population with a high concentration of different types of need

Note: Analysis only considers students who were first-time 9th graders in SY2015-16; students with multiple unique needs are assigned to only one category based on

the hierarchy as ordered in the legend above


Number of entering 9th graders with differentiated needs relative to total entering 9th grade class



Number of entering 9th graders by lottery round or assignment mode


Key findings: stratification of needStudents entering high school in SY2015-16 through the central BPS lottery process only had access to ~35% of BPS high school seats

Note: School choice lottery round for SY2015-16; analysis excludes alternative schools, schools serving special populations, and EL schools; students can be in multiple categories, but

are placed in one category per the hierarchy above; Madison Park has eight students that were recruited and admitted outside of the choice system via letter



Key findings: stratification of needStudents who faced a more limited set of choices in the assignment process also tended to be those who entered high school with higher levels of risk

*Note: Analysis only includes open enrollment, exam, selective and lottery admissions schools; alternative and special populations schools are generally excluded;

numbers only include students for whom BPS has middle school EWI data


Percentage of entering 9th graders by round of lottery and mode of entry with EWIs

Snapshot view,* SY2015-16

Includes students who

received seats allocated

through Round 1 of the BPS

lottery, students who

continued on from 8th grade

in middle school pathways,

as well as students admitted

to exam, selective

admissions and lottery

admissions schools.


Note: “Average” BPS high school is defined as a school with a first-time 9th grade class in which ~28% of students who were in BPS for 8th grade have at least one EWI, the average among

open enrollment, selective, lottery and exam schools in the fall of SY2015-16


Key findings: stratification of needThe regression analysis can be used to assess the odds of graduation for any student in a BPS high school, based on the district’s current design and performance

The regression analysis suggests

this student had a 70% chance of graduating

in four years in an average BPS high school

Illustrative at-risk student

► Age 14 in 9th grade

► Fails a core course in 8th grade

► Receives an NI or higher on MCAS exams, has average

attendance (93%), and has no out-of-school suspensions


Note: All school profiles shown here reflect the concentration of students with EWIs who were enrolled in BPS in 8th grade and who are in the 9th grade classes of actual BPS high

schools in the 2015-16 school year; expected graduation rates based on regression analysis


Expected four-year graduation rates by

concentration effects at 9th grade school

Key findings: stratification of needThe composition of a school – its concentration of student need, as demonstrated by EWIs – had an effect on a student’s odds of success

The same student would be expected to have very different graduation outcomes in different

school settings based on the current design of schools in BPS

School A

Minimum % with

EWIs: ~5%

Expected graduation

rate: 85%

School B

Low % with EWIs:

~20%

Expected graduation

rate: 77%

School C

High % with EWIs:

~35%

Expected graduation

rate: 65%

School D

Maximum % with

EWIs: ~50%

Expected graduation

rate: 52%

Illustrative at-risk student

► Age 14 in 9th grade

► Fails a core course in 8th grade

► Receives an NI or higher on 8th

grade MCAS exams, has average

attendance (93%), and has no

out-of-school suspensions


Agenda










► Recommendations


Key findings: resource allocation Today, BPS spends ~$230m on high schools, of which there is a ~$50M pool where BPS has the greatest discretion in making allocations

Note: Specialized programming allocations include: WSF allocations tied to special education seats, ELD seats, and SLIFE seats, as well as IDEA allocations,

additional SLIFE support, and Nurse/COSESS allocations; other school allocations include all other direct allocations to schools

Source: Boston Public Schools All Funds FY18 Budget; EY-Parthenon analysis

Base allocations: $140m

► Standard across all high schools

► Includes foundational allocations ($210k per school) plus the base WSF allocation made on the basis of grade level

► These allocations are considered to be essential by BPS because they are funding the core staffing and operational needs of all schools, though we recognize the flexibility of these dollars may vary from school to school

Specialized programming allocations: $44m

► Highly differentiated based on student need

► Includes special education, ELD and SLIFE allocations based on the projected number of seats in specialized programs, as well as nurse and COSESS allocations

► These items are considered to be essential to the school because schools have to comply with the terms of IEPs, regulations under IDEA, and service requirements for ELD students (including DOJ requirements)

“Supplemental resources”: $48m

► Includes all additional funding allocated directly to schools, plus central office support provided directly to schools and students

► These funds are where BPS has the greatest level of discretion. All allocations and spending in this category reflect policy decisions made within the district

BPS high school funding,

FY18


Key findings: resource allocation methodologyBPS allocates ~$50m to schools through a number of policy and programmatic decisions that shape school budgets and central office supports

Note: "Other School Programs" include school-specific programmatic investments, such as ~$0.7m to support arts programming at BAA or turnaround continuation

support at schools whose SRG has expired; "Other District Initiatives" include investments such as the district-wide Homeless initiative and emotional impairment

support; Poverty includes WSF and Title I

Source: Boston Public Schools All Funds FY18 Budget; EY-Parthenon analysis

Supplemental resources for high schools,

FY18


Average “supplemental” resources per pupil by school type,

FY18

Key findings: resource allocationOn average, open enrollment schools, alternative education schools and selective schools all receive similar allocations of supplemental funding

Note: At traditional high schools, % incoming students with risk factors is the share of first-time 9th graders who are already off track at their entry to high school, or are

flagged as having at least one EWI from 8th grade; At alternative high schools, % incoming students with risk factors is the share of students who are off track at their

entry into the alternative school; All student data shown is for the 2015-16 school year; excludes Community Academy given the differentiated funding needs of that

program; including Madison Park, Open Enrollment schools average $3.5k per pupil in supplemental resources


In addition to serving a

high need population,

alternative schools’ small

size does not enable

them to have the benefits

of scale larger schools

can achieve


High school supplemental resources vs. school concentration of need,

FY18

Key findings: resource allocationThere is little correlation between the concentration of students with risk factors in a school and the school’s allocation of supplemental resources

Note: At traditional high schools, % incoming students with risk factors is the share of first-time 9th graders who are already off-track at their entry to high school, or are

flagged as having at least one EWI from 8th grade; at alternative high schools, % incoming students with risk factors is the share of students who are off-track at their

entry into the alternative school; all student data shown is for the 2015-16 school year; excludes Community Academy, Horace Mann, the Carter Center, and the

McKinley Schools given the differentiated funding needs of those programs


Alternative school: 88% incoming students off-track; $1.0k per pupil

Open enrollment school: 38% incoming students at-risk; $1.2k per pupil

Selective school: 19% incoming students at-risk; $1.5k per pupil


Exam schools


Alternative schools

Schools serving special populations

EL school



Key findings: resource allocationBPS has added ~400 traditional high school seats over the past decade while enrollment has fallen ~15%

Note: This analysis does not include schools that serve special populations and alternative schools; numbers in this view do not appear to tie due to rounding

Source: MA DESE

BPS traditional high school enrollment,

SY2007-08 – SY2016-17

BPS closed four small open

enrollment schools from

2009-2011:

Seven schools have been

expanded; others have seen

enrollment growth:

BPS consolidated five small

open enrollment schools

from 2009-2011:

BPS has added + ~400 net seats

over the past decade

BPS opened three new

schools from 2009–2013:

Dearborn STEM, Lyon Pilot

High School and

Margarita Muñiz

+ ~600 HS seats

BCLA, BINCA, Fenway, New

Mission, Kennedy Health

Careers and TechBoston

+ ~1,300 HS seats

~1,200 HS seats ~200 HS seats

Academy of Public Service,

Engineering School, Noonan

Business Academy and Social

Justice Academy

Brook Farm Academy, Media

Communications High,

Monument High, Odyssey

High and Parkway Academy


Agenda










► Recommendations


Key findings: student mobilityWhile some level of mobility is expected in high school, there has been a wide range of transfer rates among many of the open enrollment and selective schools

Percentage of students transferred from 9th grade school,


Note: All transfer rates shown are 4-year outcomes of Class of 2017 students who were enrolled in the given school as first-time 9th graders in 2013-14 and who attended a BPS school for 8th

grade; while BPS classifies Lyon as a special populations school, 50% of the school’s seats are open enrollment while the other 50% are special education; we therefore include them as an open

enrollment school; transfers are only shown within BPS, as students who transfer out of the district are excluded from the cohort




Exam schools


For example, 26% of students in the

Class of 2017 cohort who spent 9th

grade at West Roxbury Academy

transferred to another BPS high school

during their high school career.


Key findings: student mobilityStudents who transferred between BPS high schools tended to graduate at lower rates

Note: Analysis excludes non-diploma bound students; transfers only include those transfers that occur between BPS high schools; if a student transfers into BPS during high school, that is not

counted, and students who transfer out of BPS are excluded from our cohort analysis


Number of high school transfers


Four-year graduation outcomes

by number of high school transfers



Key findings: student mobility Off-track students in the Class of 2017 cohort transferred schools at ~2-3x the rate of their on-track peers

Note: Transfer rate represents students that have transferred one or more times in high school; enrollments of fewer than 14 days and enrollments that occurred only over summer vacation

are not considered in this analysis; non-diploma-bound students are excluded from this analysis.


Percentage of students who transferred

between BPS high schools by off-track status,



Key findings: student mobilityThere was a significant disparity in graduation outcomes noted in the data between transferring and remaining students at most BPS high schools


Graduation rate of students who remain in vs. transfer from 9th grade school


Open enrollment school 1 Open enrollment school 2

Selective school 3 Open enrollment school 4


Agenda










► Recommendations


Key findings: alternative educationThe off-track to graduate population can be grouped into segments that imply different needs for students and different school models to serve them

Note: Data availability limits the feasibility of analyzing the extent to which “Other Late Entrants” are off-track; there were 157 “Other Late Entrants” enrolled in

September 2015; analysis excludes non-diploma-bound students


BPS off-track student population by age and credits accumulated


“Young and far”

16-17 and more than two years

away from graduation

1,391 students (42%)

“Old and far”

18+ and more than two years

away from graduation

884 students (27%)

“Old and close”

18+ and within two years of

graduation

677 students (20%)

“Overage late entrant EL”

Late, overage EL arrival to BPS

and two or more years off-pace

199 students (6%)


Key findings: alternative educationWhile on-track students have generally had high rates of graduation, students who fall off track have graduated at low rates

Note: Analysis excludes non-diploma-bound students


Graduation rates of off-track versus on-track students


Four-year graduation rate of students by off-track

age and credit profile



Key findings: alternative educationBPS’ alternative schools served a highly off-track population with a wide range of needs in SY2015-16, instead of being designed to serve particular segments of students


Enrollment in alternative education schools by off-track student profile


Young and far

Old and far

Old and close

Overage lateentrant EL

Other late entrant

On-track


Key findings: alternative educationThe off-track population enrolled in alternative schools contained proportionately more Black students and fewer English learners or special education students

Nota: Off-track population excludes the 140 students who were enrolled in non-diploma-bound special education programs


Off-track student population characteristics by school type


IEP statusELD statusRace/ethnicity

-13%

+10%

+0%

+2%

+14%

+7%

+12%

-1%


Key findings: alternative educationOutside of Boston Collaborative High School, most enrollment in alternative education has historically come through school-to-school transfers

Note: Only students who entered alt ed for the first time in SY2016-17 and were enrolled in alt ed as of June 2017 are included in this analysis; all visits to the REC after September 2011 are

included; most Community Academy students are placed after code of conduct violations or Department of Youth Services involvement

Source: BPS data; REC/PIC data; EY-Parthenon analysis

Enrollment patterns of students entering alternative education

First-time alternative education entrants, SY2016-17

According to

stakeholders at the

Boston PIC, the

purpose of the REC is

to re-engage students

who have dropped out

of school, rather than

serve as a “single

point of entry” to all

alternative schools.

However, the REC

has recently become

the single point of

entry for BCHS.


Key findings: alternative educationStudents who are referred to an alternative school by the REC have often been unsuccessful in finding a placement, and many become or remain disconnected from school

Note: A significant portion of students who did not receive a placement were out of school in the first place, and these students remain out of school when not placed

Source: BPS data; REC/PIC Data; EY-Parthenon analysis

Referrals, placements and end-of-year outcomes of students who interacted with the REC

All SY2016-17 REC interactions

The vast majority of students who

visited the REC in SY2016-17

were referred to alternative

schools and programs within BPS.


Key findings: alternative educationOn average, it appears that alternative schools have not been re-engaging off-track students, whether the metric is attendance …

Note: *Reflects only off-track students entering the alternative system for the first time in SY2015-16 that were in other (non-alternative schools) the previous year. For students who were

already in an alternative school in the previous year, the average attendance rate in SY2015-16 is 50%. For students who were not enrolled in BPS in SY2014-15 and who entered an

alternative school in SY2015-16, the average attendance rate is 79%; attendance rates are weighted by each student’s length of enrollment within a given school


Average attendance rate of off-track students

by school type

SY2015-16

Average attendance rate of off-track students

before and after entering alternative education*

SY2014-15 vs. SY2015-16


Key findings: alternative education… or improved graduation rates for off-track students

Note: most Boston Collaborative High School students are not included in the analysis, as Boston Collaborative High School was not represented with a distinct school code until SY2015-16;

analysis excludes non-diploma-bound students; class of 2014 cohort used in this analysis because 6-year graduation outcomes are more meaningful in an alternative education system than

4-year rates, given that many students enter alternative education at age 16 or older


Six-year graduation rate of off-track students in alternative

education programs vs. all other schools,


Six-year graduation rate of off-track students in alternative education

programs vs. all other schools, by age and credit profile,



Agenda



► Key findings

► Recommendations


RecommendationsBPS has an opportunity to put forth a strategy that is coherent and transformative, rather than incremental, to address fundamental issues in high schools

► Issues that contribute to the

scale and low outcomes of

off-track youth are sustained

and systemic. They are not new

to this administration.

► The challenges BPS faces are

interrelated and demand a

holistic and transformative

approach.

► A comprehensive high school

strategy would rely upon the

district shifting toward more

active ongoing management of

high schools.

Admissions

policies

School

accountability

Grade

configurations

Seat

capacity

Limited fiscal

resources

Program

placement

Interrelated challenges


RecommendationsWhat can be done?

Transform open enrollment and selective schools through a systemic and coordinated plan: The

overriding question for this plan would be: what actions can BPS take to increase the number of high

school students who are in high-quality schools that they and their families have chosen?

Overhaul alternative education: Replace existing seats with newly designed and resourced school

models that are rooted in a clear definition of the student segments they aim to serve, and a candid

assessment of the designs and supports it will take to serve those students well. As a system, alternative

education needs points of entry that increase access for students in need.

Put early warning data in the hands of educators and help them use it to enact school-wide changes,

as a first step to enable more strategic use of data district-wide: According to data analysis performed,

nearly 80% of off-track youth can be identified with a limited number of data indicators either before or during

the 9th grade year—just one example of how data can be used to design and manage more effective schools.

Empower all schools with data in timely and easy-to-use ways, and support them to develop systems

and processes that enable effective responses.

Use policy to enhance equity and create conditions that allow all schools to succeed: In particular, BPS

could look at changes to admissions policies, funding policies and policies related to student mobility,

in order to better align its policies with a broader high school strategy.

Evolve how the district manages its high schools to enable effective implementation of strategic

priorities: None of these actions can simply be a one-time effort. Instead, the final overarching

recommendation is for the district to align management of high schools with its priorities by shifting to

an ongoing, data-driven, active management approach.

1

2

3

4

5


Appendix


Project overviewThroughout this project, we have shared findings with and received input from a project Steering Committee at BPS, as well as from a range of stakeholders

Input from and updates to a range of stakeholders

Steering Committee

► Executive cabinet representatives► Donna Muncey, Deputy Superintendent of Strategy and Project Sponsor

► Eleanor Laurans, Chief Financial Officer

► Ligia Noriega, Assistant Superintendent of High Schools

► High school office/strategy representatives► Dan Anderson, Executive Director of Strategy

► Chelsea Banks, Special Projects Director, Human Capital

► Freddie Fuentes, Executive Director of Office of Educational Options

► Nicole Ireland, Senior Strategist, Human Capital

► Sunny Pai, Director of ELL & Alternative Programs, Charlestown High

► Nicole Wagner Lam, Executive Director of Office of Data and Accountability

► ASSET representatives► Jill Carter, Executive Director of Health and Wellness

► Amber Donell, Executive Director of Secondary Academics

► Hayden Frederick-Clarke, Director of Cultural Proficiency

► Cindie Neilson, Assistant Superintendent of Special Education

► School leader representatives► Rayna Briceno, Headmaster, Community Academy

► Ben Helfat, Headmaster, Boston Adult Technical Academy

► Allison Hramiec, Headmaster, Boston Day & Evening Academy

► Sherri Neasman, Headmaster, Boston Collaborative High School

► Stephanie Sibley, Interim Headmaster, Greater Egleston High School

► Nora Vernazza, Co-Headmaster, TechBoston Academy

► Barr representatives► Leah Hamilton, Director of Education

► Kate Dobin and Jenny Curtin, Program Officers

BPS School

Committee

BPS

Superintendent

BPS Executive

Cabinet

City Hall

School leaders


Project timeline

Phase Description Key stakeholder engagement efforts

Phase 0:

Initial stakeholder

engagement and data

collection

(July-August)

EY-Parthenon worked with BPS’ Office of Data and

Accountability to collect blinded individual student data and led

interviews with key stakeholders for preliminary hypotheses.

Throughout this project, internal and

external stakeholders were briefed and

consulted along the way. Beyond the

project Steering Committee, BPS

Executive Cabinet and BPS leadership,

others consulted include:

► City Hall

► School Committee

► School leaders

► Student focus groups

► The Boston Private Industry Council

and Re-Engagement Center Staff

► Funders in the Boston community and

national community

Phase 1:

Data analysis and sharing

of data-based findings

(August-December)

EY-Parthenon shared data findings with a project Steering

Committee of 21 members that included a cross-functional

group of district officials and school leaders who provided input

and suggested areas for further analysis; every three weeks,

findings were shared with the BPS Superintendent and Steering

Committee, and every six weeks, with the BPS Executive

Cabinet.

Phase 2:

Recommendation

development and final

report drafting

(December-February)

EY-Parthenon conducted 1:1 interviews with every Steering

Committee member, continued regular Steering Committee

meetings, and solicited input from a number of internal and

external stakeholders to develop and continuously iterate and

refine a set of recommendations in conjunction with BPS

leadership.

Phase 3:

Final report development

(February-April)

EY-Parthenon developed and wrote the final report, with

significant input from BPS leadership and the Steering

Committee.


Glossary of terms (1 of 2)

Source: EY-Parthenon analysis; BPS district stakeholder interviews; MA DESE website

Term Definition

Administrative assignment Process used by BPS administrators to enroll students in high school if either they participated in the BPS Central Lottery and did not receive admission offers to

any of their choices or if they did not participate in the BPS Central Lottery (see below for definition). Students are typically placed in the open enrollment high

school closest to their home address with available seats.

Alternative school School that aims to educate students who were not well-served by a traditional high school academic setting or are otherwise off-track or over-age for high school.

BPS Central Lottery An open, algorithm-based lottery that takes into account student and family preferences for open enrollment high schools and the availability of seats in each

school. This lottery system is the primary mode of admission into BPS open enrollment schools and operates over several rounds (see below for definition of

Round 1 and Rounds 2-5).

Cohort A group of students with the same intended 4-year graduation date.

Early warning indicators

(EWIs)

Student characteristics displayed in 8th grade that are predictive of students falling off track and dropping out. In this analysis, these characteristics include:

► Attendance: Less than 85% attendance in 8th grade

► Discipline: 1 or more days suspended out of school in 8th grade

► Core Course Failure: 1 or more English or math courses failed in 8th grade

► MCAS Warning: Warning level on both 8th grade MCAS exams

EL school School specifically designed to serve the needs of students who are English learners. BPS’ El school, Newcomers Academy, is housed with Boston International

High School and provides students with ESL instruction and math, science, and social studies instruction in sheltered English.

English language

development (ELD) levels

Descriptors of the stages of development of English learners (see below for definition) that designate their stage of increasing proficiency in English as a new

language. ELD levels range from 1 to 5, with 1 signifying the earliest stages of English language acquisition.

English learners Students who are native speakers of languages other than English and who are at earlier stages of English language acquisition and may require additional

language support. English learners are assigned an ELD level (see above for definition) to denote the stage of their language development.

Exam school School that admits students via a competitive admissions process, which is based solely on the student’s grade point average and scores on the Independent

Schools Entrance Exam. Students typically enter these schools in grades 7 or 9.

Full/partial Inclusion Special education students with .1-.3 designation who spend either all or part of their day in general education classes.

Horace Mann charter school School that admits students on the basis of lotteries that are separate from the BPS choice process, but are open to all students. These schools also have more

school autonomy over mission, curriculum, teaching methods, budget and hiring/firing of staff.

Individualized education

program (IEP)

A plan designed to establish that any child with a disability who is attending an elementary or secondary educational institution receives specialized instruction

and related services to facilitate access to the general curriculum.

Lottery admissions school In our report, we use the terminology “lottery admissions schools” to denote what are legally known as Horace Mann charter schools.

MA Comprehensive

Assessment System (MCAS)

Massachusetts statewide assessment program developed in 1993. Students take the exam in ELA, math and science starting in 3rd grade. 10th grade students

must pass the exam in both ELA and math to be eligible for graduation.

Non-diploma-bound

student

Special education students who are served in substantially separate environments and have IEPs (see above for definition) that do not place them on a path to

graduation.


Glossary of terms (2 of 2)

Term Definition

Off-track to graduate Students who are two years behind the typical age and credit accumulation patterns of their peers at any time throughout high school.

Open enrollment school Schools open to all BPS students and selected through the lottery-based choice process.

Pilot school Schools within BPS that have autonomy over budget, staffing, governance, curriculum/assessment and the school calendar to provide increased flexibility to meet the needs of

students and families.

Portfolio management An ongoing method of managing the school options available in a district with the ultimate goal of expanding the number of high-quality seats available in the district. This can

take many forms, including, but not limited to, school quality and accountability standards; school expansion, revitalization and closure; and school data tracking.

Program placement Program placement refers to two methods of placement:

1. The assignment of English learners and special education students into secondary schools with programs suitable to their individual needs. This takes place outside or

within a limited subset of the traditional choice system.

2. The placement of highly specialized programs, such as SLIFE, substantially separate, and ELD, within BPS schools with the expectation that the school will serve students

with that highly specialized need. Today, most programs are placed in open enrollment schools.

Re-Engagement Center

(REC)

Created in 2009 as a partnership between BPS and the Boston Private Industry Council (PIC), the REC works to re-engage young people who have dropped out or

disengaged from school and connect them with a school option that can put them on the path to high school graduation.

Round 1 Students access open enrollment high schools in 9th grade through the central BPS choice process. The first round of the lottery occurs in January – this year, from January 3

to February 9 –and is the primary opportunity for students to enroll in these schools.

Rounds 2-5 (late rounds) BPS offers several additional lottery rounds for students who missed the first lottery round, were not satisfied with the school they received in the first round, or are enrolling in

grades 10-12. Students enrolling in late rounds only have access to seats not filled through Round 1.

Selective admissions school Selective schools are pilot schools that require students to apply for admission by submitting a special application and/or artistic portfolio. The process to enroll in these

schools is separate from the BPS central lottery.

Student with Limited or

Interrupted Formal

Education (SLIFE)

BPS offers specialized programming for newcomers to the district who are 2+ years behind their peers in literacy, have had limited or interrupted formal education, and have

low levels of English language development (ELD 1-2). These programs are geared toward supporting students’ education in their native language and preparing them to enter

an English immersion program, and are placed in a handful of high schools today.

Special populations school Schools designed to serve students with disabilities who may require specialized services and settings.

Students with disabilities For the purposes of this report, we consider students with disabilities to include any student with an Individualized Education Plan (IEP). Based on students’ IEPs, BPS’ Office

of Special Education assigns each student a code to denote the nature of their identified special need (e.g., V = Vision) and the assessed level of severity of their need (.1-.4,

with .4 being the most severe). These codes signify the settings in which the students are served to adhere to their IEP.

Substantially separate

special education

Some students with disabilities (those with a .4 designation) are primarily served through specialized instruction in a small group setting, and spend less than 40% of their

school day in a general education classroom.

Supplemental resources We have defined “supplemental resources” as resources allocated to high schools beyond the base and specialized programming allocations, including poverty, vocational,

and high-risk WSF categories, school-specific programmatic investments, autonomous buybacks, homelessness initiative investments, SEL and Wellness (including athletics),

school safety, external partnerships, extended learning time programs, turnaround supports, and additional central office supports for high schools.

Source: EY-Parthenon analysis; BPS district stakeholder interviews; MA DESE website

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