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Bouncing Back From Drought, How Resilient are Citrus and
Almonds?
Mark SkewesResearch Scientist – Drought Response
Loxton Research Centre
Defining Resilience
• Crop Resilience• Survival• Productivity
• Business Resilience• Individual Businesses• Regional Economy
SURVIVALCrop Resilience
11 February 2008
23 June 2009
30 June 2010
20 October 2011
PRODUCTIVITYCrop Resilience
Drought Monitoring Program
Yield/Applied Water (NP Almonds)
Yield/ETc (NP Almonds)
Yield/Applied Water (Citrus)
Yield/ETc (Citrus)
Crop Resilience Strategies
• Canopy reduction• Reduce crop water demand• Reduce stress
• Partial cover irrigation• Reduce evaporative losses• Some issues with recovery
• “Sunscreen” products• Reduce stress• Limited success
INDIVIDUAL BUSINESSESBusiness Resilience
Almonds
• High water requirements
• Cost of production increasing
• Returns high
• Cost of replacement water generally justified
• Few plantings removed
Citrus
• Moderate water requirements
• Cost of production increasing
• Returns variable (varieties, markets)
• Cost of replacement water often justified
• Some plantings removed
Wine Grapes
• Low water requirements
• Cost of production increasing
• Returns low (often below cost of production)
• Cost of replacement water not justified
• Many plantings removed
REGIONAL ECONOMYBusiness Resilience
Drought vs. Murray-Darling Basin Plan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Season
Wat
er A
vail
abil
ity
(%)
Drought
Drought vs. Murray-Darling Basin Plan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Season
Wat
er A
vail
abil
ity
(%)
Drought
Basin Plan
Conclusions
• Resilience measured at different scales• Survival of permanent plantings is
paramount• Management techniques are available
to maintained production • Business survival is about more than
just crop response to water deficit• Regional economies generally coped
with short term drought, but.......?