+ All Categories
Home > Documents > BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965...

BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965...

Date post: 29-Aug-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 19 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
104
bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2017
Transcript
Page 1: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2017

Page 2: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

BP

1

Page 3: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

9

63

46

50

54

58

23

45

4

2

Page 4: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

95

72

76

82

70

88

90

92

86

3

Page 5: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 4

Page 6: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 5

Page 7: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

6

Page 8: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

7

Page 9: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

8

Page 10: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 9

Page 11: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1975-1995

1995-2015

2015-2035

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1975-1995

1995-2015

2015-2035

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1975-1995

1995-2015

2015-2035

10

Page 12: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

11

Page 13: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Th

ou

san

ds

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1965-1975

1975-1985

1985-1995

1995-2005

2005-2015

2015-2025

2025-2035

12

Page 14: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

13

Page 15: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

14

Page 16: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

15

Page 17: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 20350

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035

16

Page 18: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

17

Page 19: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

20%

30%

40%

50%

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Renew.

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Page 20: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

19

Page 21: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0

10

20

30

40

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 20350.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1995-2015 2015-2035

20

Page 22: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

21

Page 23: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 22

Page 24: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

23

Page 25: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

24

Page 26: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

25

Page 27: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

26

Page 28: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

27

Page 29: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1995-2005

2005-2015

2015-2025

2025-2035

28

Page 30: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

29

Page 31: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995-2015 2015-2035

†30

Page 32: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

31

Page 33: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

100

200

300

400

500

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

32

Page 34: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

33

Page 35: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

34

Page 36: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

35

Page 37: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1965-1975 1985-1995 2005-2015 2025-2035

Th

ou

san

ds

Conventional

LNG

Russian pipeline

0

1

2

3

4

5

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

36

Page 38: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

37

Page 39: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035

38

Page 40: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

39

Page 41: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1995-2015

2015-2035

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

40

Page 42: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

41

Page 43: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2025 2035 2015 2025 2035

42

Page 44: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

43

Page 45: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 44

Page 46: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

45

Page 47: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

46

Page 48: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

47

Page 49: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

19

23 17

0.2 1.2

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

48

Page 50: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

49

Page 51: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

50

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

2015- 2035

2015- 2050

Page 52: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

51

Page 53: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

52

Page 54: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

53

Page 55: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 2005 2020 2035

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 2005 2020 2035

54

Page 56: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

55

Page 57: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

17

56

44

5

17

7

9

22 17

2

Page 58: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

57

Page 59: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

58

Page 60: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

59

Page 61: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035

60

Page 62: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

61

Page 63: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 62

Page 64: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 63

Page 65: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

-0.9%

-5.6%

15.0%

-2.5% -1.9%

-0.2%

7.9%

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

CO₂ (RHS)

-3.7%

64

Page 66: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

65

Page 67: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

GDP

Fuel mix

Base case

growth

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

1

2

3

4

5

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

66

Page 68: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

67

Page 69: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

GDP

Fuel mix

Base case

growth

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

68

Page 70: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

69

Page 71: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

70

Page 72: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

71

Page 73: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0 100 200 300 400 500

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

72

Page 74: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

73

Page 75: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

15

20

25

15

20

25

74

Page 76: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

75

Page 77: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

8

7

76

20

30

40

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Page 78: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

77

Page 79: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

CO2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015-2035 2035

78

Page 80: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

79

Page 81: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

• †

80

Page 82: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

81

Page 83: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

82

Page 84: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

83

Page 85: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

30%

60%

90%

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Coal

0

5

10

15

20

84

Page 86: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

85

Page 87: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

86

Page 88: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

Base case: Fuel by fuel detail

87

Page 89: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

88

Page 90: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

89

Page 91: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050

90

Page 92: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

91

Page 93: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Renew.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995-2015 2015-2035 2035-2050

92

Page 94: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

93

Page 95: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 94

Page 96: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 95

Page 97: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

96

Page 98: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

97

Page 99: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 98

Page 100: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

99

Page 101: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

水电和其他可再生

能源

核能

煤炭

天然气

石油

100

Page 102: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

101

Page 103: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017

IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016 , Paris, France, November 2016

EIA: US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016, Washington, D.C., United States, May 2016

MIT: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016 Food, Water, Energy and Climate Outlook, Cambridge, MA, United States, 2016

IEEJ: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016, Tokyo, Japan, October 2016

IHS: IHS Energy, Rivalry: the IHS Planning Scenario, July 2016

PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Scenario Planning Guidebook, Appendix, February 2016

XOM: ExxonMobil, 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, December 2016

CNPC: CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, Energy Outlook 2050, 2016

Greenpeace, Energy Revolution, September 2015

BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2016

International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016

International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016

UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, New York, United States, 2016

102

Page 104: BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition · 2017. 3. 31. · © BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995

© BP p.l.c. 2017 103


Recommended