Bradfield Lyon
Drought and Water Shortages: Looking Beyond the Climate Connection
International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyThe Earth Institute at Columbia University
Palisades, NY
PHOTO - The Highlands: Our Backyard Paradise 2005 Updatehttp://www.highlandscoalition.org/documents/BackyardParadise206.pdf
What About Water? A Reality Check for the 21st CenturyAmerican Meteorological Society, Washington, DC March 26-27, 2008
Map: University of Connecticut
The Study Region
The Highlands (NY & NJ)
• Population ≈ 1.5 million
• Direct source of water for ≈ 4.5 million people
• 125,000 acres part of the NYC water supply watershed
Average Annual Precipitation (mm)
Annual PRCP Coefficient of Variation
The “Water Abundant” Northeastern US
Annual Precipitation Coefficient of Variation
Data: NCDC Climate Division dataset served by IRI Data Library
Figure from CPC
Drought in the Hudson Valley over the past Century(Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI)
DR
Y
D
RY
W
ET
WE
T
New York Climate Divisions
PD
SI
60’s
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
Rockland’s Water Supply System
Development Local Municipalities, County Government
DroughtWater Supply(Private Company)
A Mismatch in Planning: Water Supply vs. Demand
CLIMATE
Shortages
PDSI
Hudson Valley Drought Indices (1950-2006)
6-monthprecipitation
anomaly
12-monthprecipitation
anomaly
“2002 Drought”
WE
TD
RY
WE
TD
RY
WE
TD
RY
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
Hudson Valley
Recent Droughts in HistoricalPerspective...
All Droughts lasting >4 months, 1900-2003
PDSI for Hudson Valley 1950 to 2006
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
Hudson Valley
Recent Droughts in HistoricalPerspective...
All Droughts lasting >4 months, 1900-2003
Tree Ring Data:
Cook, E.R. and P.J. Krusic. 2004. The North American Drought Atlas. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the National Science Foundation.
PDSI for Hudson Valley 1950 to 2006
Average Occurrence of Meeting Precipitation Criteria for Declaring Different Stages of Drought Emergency Based on Historical (1880 – 2000) Data
*
Lyon et al. JAWRA, 2005
Rockland’s Vulnerability to Short Duration Droughts
New York-New Jersey Highlands Regional Study: 2000 Update (USDA Forest Service, 2002)
A Heavy Reliance on Ground Water
New York-New Jersey Highlands Regional Study: 2000 Update (USDA Forest Service, 2002)
Increasing Population, Increasing Demand
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
≈ 25%
United Water to Build $79 Million Desalination Plant on Hudson River to Meet County’s Long Term Water Supply Requirements
http://www.unitedwater.com/uwny/PressRelease.asp?ReleaseID=487
Supply Solution? Desalination of Hudson River Water
NJ PDSI Climate Division Average Recent StatewideVoluntary Water
Restrictions Requested in NJ
September, 2005May, 2006
Situation not Unique to Rockland County
Upper-Right Figure Source: Beyond the Drought: New Jersey Faces a Long-Range Water Supply Crisishttp://www.njreporter.org/NJR200206/njr_drought2.html
US General Accounting Office Study, 2003
Extent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade Under Average Water Conditions
USGS Estimated Use ofWater in the United Statesin 2000
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-514
Intensity of Water Use (withdrawal rate per unit area)
Summary
Significant development coupled with a stagnant water supply capacity have madeRockland County increasingly vulnerable to inevitable emergence of periods of drought (in the hydrometeorological sense).
Development projects have largely been under the purview of local municipalitiesand the county government, while the county’s water supply has largely been underthe management of a private water company. This has led to “blame the other side”political posturing during periods of drought. The climate has, until recently, beena convenient scapegoat for both sides should water restrictions be imposed.
The recent drought emergencies in Rockland were associated with climatefluctuations that were well within the range of historical variability - i.e., not a reflectionof climate change.
The region in fact has upward trends in temperature and precipitation. However, anincreasing amount of precipitation is from extreme events which are not asconducive to groundwater recharge, and increasing temperatures lead to both higherconsumptive use of water by humans as well as an increased atmospheric demand.
The water situation in Rockland County is a microcosm of water issues throughout the “water abundant” (north)eastern US.
Supplemental Slides
y = 0.0087x + 3.0616
R2 = 0.4385
2.45
2.95
3.45
3.95
4.45
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Mar-May
Linear (Mar-May)
y = 0.0022x + 3.7898
R2 = 0.0443
2.45
2.95
3.45
3.95
4.45
4.95
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Jun-Aug
Linear (Jun-Aug)
Hudson ValleyPrecipitationby Season
New YorkClimate Division 5
11-yr Moving Avg.
JJA
MAM
y = 0.0075x + 3.1691
R2 = 0.4903
2.45
2.95
3.45
3.95
4.45
4.95
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Sep-Nov
Linear (Sep-Nov)
y = 0.001x + 2.8955
R2 = 0.0189
y = 0.001x + 2.8955
R2 = 0.0189
2.45
2.95
3.45
3.95
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Dec-Feb
Linear (Dec-Feb)
SON
DJF
An Increasing Number of Extreme Precipitation Events
http://cleanair-coolplanet.org/information/pdf/indicators.pdf
Indicators of Climate Change in the Northeast 2005
Climate Trends in the Hudson Valley
Graphics Source: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://neisa.unh.edu/Climate/AnnualTemperature.html
Upward trends in temperature and precipitation have opposite effects on drought...
Source: USGS http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/saltfront.html#HDR3
NO
RT
H
* * **
* Recent Droughts
Data Source: NYC DEP
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
200620011996199119861981
To
tal
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
(10^
6 g
al/d
ay)
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
per
cap
ita
(gal
/day
)
total
per capita
Water Consumption and per capita Use in New York City
The Four Drought Stages and What They MeanThe Drought Plan describes the actions to be taken during each drought stage by water purveyors, towns and villages, water authorities, and other agencies with water supply responsibilities.
Drought Watch - The least severe of the stages, a drought watch is declared when a drought is developing. Public water suppliers begin to conserve water and urge customers to reduce water use.
Drought Warning - Voluntary water conservation is intensified. Public water suppliers and industries update and implement local drought contingency plans. Local agencies make plans in case of emergency declaration.
Drought Emergency - The Governor may declare emergency. The Disaster Preparedness Commission coordinates response. Mandatory local/county water restrictions may be imposed. Communities may need to tap alternative water sources to avoid depleting water supplies, protect public health and provide for essential uses.
Drought Disaster - Disaster plans are implemented. Water use is further restricted. The Governor may declare disaster and request federal disaster assistance. Emergency legislation may be enacted. The state provides equipment and technical assistance to communities.
NY DEC
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/
http://www.pacinst.org/press_center/usgs/
Pacific InstitutePer-Capita Water Withdrawals in the US
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
190
0
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5
191
0
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5
192
0
192
5
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5
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5
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0
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5
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5
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5
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llon
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r pe
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er
day