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Drought and Water Shortages: Looking Beyond the Climate Connection. Bradfield Lyon. International Research Institute for Climate and Society The Earth Institute at Columbia University Palisades, NY. What About Water? A Reality Check for the 21 st Century - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Bradfield Lyon Drought and Water Shortages: Looking Beyond the Climate Connection International Research Institute for Climate and Society The Earth Institute at Columbia University Palisades, NY PHOTO - The Highlands: Our Backyard Paradise 2005 Update http://www.highlandscoalition.org/documents/BackyardParadise206.pdf What About Water? A Reality Check for the 21 st Century American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC March 26-27, 2008
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Page 1: Bradfield Lyon

Bradfield Lyon

Drought and Water Shortages: Looking Beyond the Climate Connection

International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyThe Earth Institute at Columbia University

Palisades, NY

PHOTO - The Highlands: Our Backyard Paradise 2005 Updatehttp://www.highlandscoalition.org/documents/BackyardParadise206.pdf

What About Water? A Reality Check for the 21st CenturyAmerican Meteorological Society, Washington, DC March 26-27, 2008

Page 2: Bradfield Lyon

Map: University of Connecticut

The Study Region

The Highlands (NY & NJ)

• Population ≈ 1.5 million

• Direct source of water for ≈ 4.5 million people

• 125,000 acres part of the NYC water supply watershed

Page 3: Bradfield Lyon

Average Annual Precipitation (mm)

Annual PRCP Coefficient of Variation

The “Water Abundant” Northeastern US

Annual Precipitation Coefficient of Variation

Page 4: Bradfield Lyon

Data: NCDC Climate Division dataset served by IRI Data Library

Figure from CPC

Drought in the Hudson Valley over the past Century(Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI)

DR

Y

D

RY

W

ET

WE

T

New York Climate Divisions

PD

SI

60’s

Page 5: Bradfield Lyon

Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA

Rockland’s Water Supply System

Page 6: Bradfield Lyon

Development Local Municipalities, County Government

DroughtWater Supply(Private Company)

A Mismatch in Planning: Water Supply vs. Demand

CLIMATE

Shortages

Page 7: Bradfield Lyon

PDSI

Hudson Valley Drought Indices (1950-2006)

6-monthprecipitation

anomaly

12-monthprecipitation

anomaly

“2002 Drought”

WE

TD

RY

WE

TD

RY

WE

TD

RY

Page 8: Bradfield Lyon

Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA

Hudson Valley

Recent Droughts in HistoricalPerspective...

All Droughts lasting >4 months, 1900-2003

PDSI for Hudson Valley 1950 to 2006

Page 9: Bradfield Lyon

Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA

Hudson Valley

Recent Droughts in HistoricalPerspective...

All Droughts lasting >4 months, 1900-2003

Tree Ring Data:

Cook, E.R. and P.J. Krusic. 2004. The North American Drought Atlas. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the National Science Foundation.

PDSI for Hudson Valley 1950 to 2006

Page 10: Bradfield Lyon

Average Occurrence of Meeting Precipitation Criteria for Declaring Different Stages of Drought Emergency Based on Historical (1880 – 2000) Data

*

Lyon et al. JAWRA, 2005

Rockland’s Vulnerability to Short Duration Droughts

Page 11: Bradfield Lyon

New York-New Jersey Highlands Regional Study: 2000 Update (USDA Forest Service, 2002)

A Heavy Reliance on Ground Water

Page 12: Bradfield Lyon

New York-New Jersey Highlands Regional Study: 2000 Update (USDA Forest Service, 2002)

Increasing Population, Increasing Demand

Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA

≈ 25%

Page 13: Bradfield Lyon

United Water to Build $79 Million Desalination Plant on Hudson River to Meet County’s Long Term Water Supply Requirements

http://www.unitedwater.com/uwny/PressRelease.asp?ReleaseID=487

Supply Solution? Desalination of Hudson River Water

Page 14: Bradfield Lyon

NJ PDSI Climate Division Average Recent StatewideVoluntary Water

Restrictions Requested in NJ

September, 2005May, 2006

Situation not Unique to Rockland County

Upper-Right Figure Source: Beyond the Drought: New Jersey Faces a Long-Range Water Supply Crisishttp://www.njreporter.org/NJR200206/njr_drought2.html

Page 15: Bradfield Lyon

US General Accounting Office Study, 2003

Extent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade Under Average Water Conditions

USGS Estimated Use ofWater in the United Statesin 2000

http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-514

Intensity of Water Use (withdrawal rate per unit area)

Page 16: Bradfield Lyon

Summary

Significant development coupled with a stagnant water supply capacity have madeRockland County increasingly vulnerable to inevitable emergence of periods of drought (in the hydrometeorological sense).

Development projects have largely been under the purview of local municipalitiesand the county government, while the county’s water supply has largely been underthe management of a private water company. This has led to “blame the other side”political posturing during periods of drought. The climate has, until recently, beena convenient scapegoat for both sides should water restrictions be imposed.

The recent drought emergencies in Rockland were associated with climatefluctuations that were well within the range of historical variability - i.e., not a reflectionof climate change.

The region in fact has upward trends in temperature and precipitation. However, anincreasing amount of precipitation is from extreme events which are not asconducive to groundwater recharge, and increasing temperatures lead to both higherconsumptive use of water by humans as well as an increased atmospheric demand.

The water situation in Rockland County is a microcosm of water issues throughout the “water abundant” (north)eastern US.

Page 17: Bradfield Lyon

Supplemental Slides

Page 18: Bradfield Lyon

y = 0.0087x + 3.0616

R2 = 0.4385

2.45

2.95

3.45

3.95

4.45

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Mar-May

Linear (Mar-May)

y = 0.0022x + 3.7898

R2 = 0.0443

2.45

2.95

3.45

3.95

4.45

4.95

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Jun-Aug

Linear (Jun-Aug)

Hudson ValleyPrecipitationby Season

New YorkClimate Division 5

11-yr Moving Avg.

JJA

MAM

y = 0.0075x + 3.1691

R2 = 0.4903

2.45

2.95

3.45

3.95

4.45

4.95

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Sep-Nov

Linear (Sep-Nov)

y = 0.001x + 2.8955

R2 = 0.0189

y = 0.001x + 2.8955

R2 = 0.0189

2.45

2.95

3.45

3.95

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Dec-Feb

Linear (Dec-Feb)

SON

DJF

Page 19: Bradfield Lyon

An Increasing Number of Extreme Precipitation Events

http://cleanair-coolplanet.org/information/pdf/indicators.pdf

Indicators of Climate Change in the Northeast 2005

Page 20: Bradfield Lyon

Climate Trends in the Hudson Valley

Graphics Source: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://neisa.unh.edu/Climate/AnnualTemperature.html

Upward trends in temperature and precipitation have opposite effects on drought...

Page 21: Bradfield Lyon
Page 22: Bradfield Lyon

Source: USGS http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/saltfront.html#HDR3

NO

RT

H

* * **

* Recent Droughts

Page 23: Bradfield Lyon

Data Source: NYC DEP

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

200620011996199119861981

To

tal

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n

(10^

6 g

al/d

ay)

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

per

cap

ita

(gal

/day

)

total

per capita

Water Consumption and per capita Use in New York City

Page 24: Bradfield Lyon
Page 25: Bradfield Lyon

The Four Drought Stages and What They MeanThe Drought Plan describes the actions to be taken during each drought stage by water purveyors, towns and villages, water authorities, and other agencies with water supply responsibilities.

Drought Watch - The least severe of the stages, a drought watch is declared when a drought is developing. Public water suppliers begin to conserve water and urge customers to reduce water use.

Drought Warning - Voluntary water conservation is intensified. Public water suppliers and industries update and implement local drought contingency plans. Local agencies make plans in case of emergency declaration.

Drought Emergency - The Governor may declare emergency. The Disaster Preparedness Commission coordinates response. Mandatory local/county water restrictions may be imposed. Communities may need to tap alternative water sources to avoid depleting water supplies, protect public health and provide for essential uses.

Drought Disaster - Disaster plans are implemented. Water use is further restricted. The Governor may declare disaster and request federal disaster assistance. Emergency legislation may be enacted. The state provides equipment and technical assistance to communities.

NY DEC

Page 26: Bradfield Lyon

http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/

http://www.pacinst.org/press_center/usgs/

Pacific InstitutePer-Capita Water Withdrawals in the US

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

190

0

190

5

191

0

191

5

192

0

192

5

193

0

193

5

194

0

194

5

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

Ga

llon

s pe

r pe

rso

n p

er

day


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