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Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein Institute for Regional and Structural Research (NIERS) Niederrhein Institute for Regional and Structural Research (NIERS) Angelika Jaeger Fabian Kreutzer Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
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Page 1: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany

Niederrhein Institute for Regional and Structural Research (NIERS)Niederrhein Institute for Regional and Structural Research (NIERS)

Angelika Jaeger Fabian KreutzerAngelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 2: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany

1. Introduction1. Introduction

2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants

3. Discussion and Conclusion

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 3: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

1. Introduction

Academic literature tells us:

• Human capital is a key indicator of regional economic and innovation performance

Patterns of regional “brain flows” are key determinants for the development of the

human capital level

• Migration is a well-analyzed research topic on a macro level

Additional information can be gained with Additional information can be gained with

graduate migration analysis on a small-scale regional level

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 4: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

1. Introduction

Study Region: Central Lower Rhine Area (CLRA)y g ( )

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerFigure 1: adapted from IHK Mittlerer Niederrhein, 2012

Page 5: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

1. Introduction

What are central characteristics of the Central Lower Rhine Area (CLRA)?( )

• Old Industrial region, structural changes

• Rather peripherical, close to the border

• On the rim of a congested urban area with several prospering metropolises pull factor!

The CLRA faces diverse challengesThe CLRA faces diverse challenges

• Economic problems, above-average unemployment

• High municipal debts• High municipal debts

• Below-average percentage of university graduates employed

• 38% of regional companies claim a shortage of skilled labour138% of regional companies claim a shortage of skilled labour

A university is a vital chance for the region!

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerSource: Analysis of NIERS and 1 Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2012, p.1

Page 6: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany

1. Introduction1. Introduction

2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants

3. Discussion and Conclusion

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 7: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

2. Graduate Migration Patterns and DeterminantsNR UAS Graduate Survey 2012 N = 1769 (max 2 years after grad )

N Mi ti Mi ti

NR UAS Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769 (max. 2 years after grad.)

No Migration

after graduation

Migration

after graduation∑

Origin inCLRA

Non Migrants15.0 %

Late Migrants15.5 %

30.5 %

Origin in anyth i

University Stayers11 5 %

Repeat Migrants58 0 %

69.5 %other region 11.5 % 58.0 % %

∑ 26 5 % 73 5 % 100∑ 26.5 % 73.5 % 100

Brainflow Balance – 4.0 %

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769; CLRA = Central Lower Rhine Area

Page 8: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants

Descriptive Analysis: Interesting results concerning migration determinants:p y g g g

• Migration propensity differs considering different fields of study

• A temporary stay abroad: does not alter frequency of graduate migration,

but generally raises the migration distance

D ti f J b S ki G d t h t i th i fi d j b f t• Duration of Job Seeking: Graduates, who stay in the region, find jobs faster

• Starting salary: A high starting salary seems to act as pull factor to other regions

• Form of job contract: below average migration propensity for job contracts of lower• Form of job contract: below-average migration propensity for job contracts of lower

attractiveness

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 9: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

2. Graduate Migration Motives

Only two important migration motives:y p g

80%66%

40%

60%62%

66%

46% 42%

Starting first job in Central Lower Rhine Area (CLRA)

Migration to other Areas

20%

40%

14%5% 5% 4%

16%9%7%

1%8% 12%

6%

26%

0%

elated

 tives

amily‐

otvies

udies / 

gram

Cost of 

ng eatio

n men

iti

Image

RA 

bility/ 

ucture

easons

4%1%

Job‐re

mot

Person

al/ fa

related mo

Furthe

r stu

PHD prog

CLRA

 Clivin

CLRA

 Recre

Facilities/Am

es

CLRA

 I

CLR

Accessib

Infrastru

Other re

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769

P F C F

Page 10: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

2. Graduate Migration Determinants and MotivesEconometric ApproachEconometric Approach

• Migration: dummy, 1 = graduate starts professional life in CLRA• RegOrigin: dummy, 1 = university entrance diploma in CLRA• University Entrance: form of university entrance diploma• University Entrance: form of university entrance diploma• Apprenticeship, Temporary stay abroad : dummy, 1 = yes / 0 = no• Gender: dummy, 1 = female• Duration of Job seeking in months• Duration of Job seeking in months• Industry, retail and SME: dummy, 1 = graduate started professional life in company

operating in industrial branches, in retail industry, respectively as SME• SelfEmployed: dummy 1 = graduate is self employed• SelfEmployed: dummy, 1 = graduate is self-employed• Personal Reasons and Job Reasons: dummy, 1 = graduate identified migration motive• Textile and Economics: dummies, field of study (1 = graduate of corresponding faculty)

ERSA 2012 Congress| 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 11: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

2. Graduate Migration Determinants and MotivesEconometric ApproachEconometric ApproachRegression results for binomial model with random error termDependent variable: Migration, 1 = Graduate starting professional life in CLRA*** f

Coeff. Std. Err. P> |z|Regional origin*** 0.79 0,19 0,000University Entrance diploma 0 33 0 58 0 574

*** denotes significance at the 0.01 level 

University Entrance diploma 0,33 0,58 0,574Apprenticeship ‐0,02 0,18 0,906Gender: Female ‐0,19 0,20 0,453Temporary Stay Abroad 0,29 0,28 0,242Job‐Seeking ‐0,05 0,03 0,102Industry ‐0,20 0,21 0,327Retail Market 0,54 0,33 0,106SME 0 04 0 20 0 830SME ‐0,04 0,20 0,830Self‐Employed 0,00 0,30 0,998Personal & Family‐Related Reasons*** 1,39 0,19 0,000Job‐Related Reasons*** 0,73 0,20 0,000Faculty Textile & Clothing Management 0,20 0,27 0,466Faculty Business Administration & Economics 0,07 0,20 0,710cons ‐2,32 0,33 0,000

Database: Online survey of alumni network 2012, N = 475

Participants: 369, alumni network survey Prob> chi2 =0,000

LR chi2 (14)= 93,76 Pseudo R2= 0,2637

Page 12: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

2. Graduate Migration Determinants and Motives

Results of Empirical Analysis:p y

1. The university catchment area is very regionally oriented

2. NR UAS exhibits a negative brainflow-balance

3. The propensity of migration is much higher for external students

4. Two important migration motives: job-related and family-related/personal reasons

5. Minor or no significance in the migration decision process: graduate‘s international g g p g

experience, self-employment, soft locational factors of the university region

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 13: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany

1. Introduction1. Introduction

2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants

3. Discussion and Conclusion

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 14: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

3. Discussion

The three roles of HEI:

1. HEI as source of academic knowledge

2. HEI as provider of academic education

3. HEI as regional system builder

Especially important in old industrial regions facing economic challenges

Concerning graduation migration policy, how can NR UAS act asregional system builder?regional system builder?

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerSource: Caniëls / von den Bosch 2010, p. 274

Page 15: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

3. Discussion

1. The university can embrace and support a role as „employment broker“:y pp „ p y

35%How did you find your first job after graduation?

25%

30% 34,5%

39%: Connection via university / studies

10%

15%

20%

13,3% 11,6% 10,4%

3 6%

18,0%

12,2%

0%

5%

  nt 

ies

hip sis

y  ors

ent

nal 

cts ve 

on er 

für 

3,6%1,7%

Part‐tim

eEm

ploymen

during

 studi

Internsh

Fina

l The

s

Contact b

yecturing

 tuto

Job 

advertisem

e

Person

Contac

Speculati

App

licatio

Jobcen

te(Agentur f

Arbeit)

ERSA 2012 Congress| 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official survey of graduates 2012, N = 1769

le a

Page 16: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

3. Discussion

2. The university can improve graduates‘ knowledge about possible local employersy p g g p p y

Knowledge of local economy and possible future employers

Complete knowledge  2 3 4 No knowledge Total 

I would have stayed in the CLRA given a better job offer

Yes  14 128 159 138 62 501

No  10 37 89 85 60 281

Migrating graduates 24 165 248 223 122 782

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official survey of graduates 2012

Page 17: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

3. Discussion

3. The university needs to underline its importance for local companies

Local companies evaluate NR UAS as good, but unimportant location factor concerning„labour and qualification“

1,5

Workforce Qualification Wages

,

1,7

1,9Availability of Labour

General Schools

Vocational SchoolsExternal training

opportunitiesCooperation

2,1

2,3

tanc

e

General Schools

NR UAS as HEI

Cooperation schools / firms

Child Care

Elderly Care Cpr. Health-Management

2,5

2,7

Impo

rt y Management2,9

1,51,71,92,12,32,52,72,9

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerSource: Survey of Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 2012; scale from 1 (highest value) to 5 (lowest)

Quality

Page 18: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

3. Conclusion

For old industrial regions facing economic problems…g g p

… a HEI is a vital chance for the development of human capital

… high importance of graduates who can be attracted to the region in the long run

… pull-factor of well-performing regions has to be faced

dditi l d t h t b ff d additional advantages have to be offered

regionally originated students are easier „to keep“ in the region

To improve the level of regional human capital, a HEI can…

embrace and support a role as employment broker“… embrace and support a role as „employment broker ,

… improve graduates‘ knowledge about possible local employers

needs to underline its importance for local companies… needs to underline its importance for local companies

Page 19: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Thank you for your attention!

Page 20: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Literature

Caniëls, M. / van den Bosch, H.: The role of Higher Education Institutions in building regional , , g g ginnovation systems. In: Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 90 No. 2, June 2011.

Faggian, A. / McCann, P.: Human Capital and Regional Development. In: Capello, R. / Nijkamp, P.: Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories, Cheltenham. S. 131-151, 2008.

Leisering, B. / Rolff, K.: Was bindet junge Akademiker an Arbeitsplätze in der Region? Ergebnisse einer Online-Umfrage bei MINT-Studierenden in NRW. In: Institut für Arbeit

d T h ik IAT W fäli h H h h l G l ki h F h Ak ll 03/2012und Technik IAT, Westfälische Hochschule Gelsenkirchen, Forschung Aktuell, 03/2012.Industrie- und Handelskammer Düsseldorf und Mittlerer Niederrhein: Konjunktur-

Sonderthema: Fachkräftemangel in der Region Düsseldorf / Mittlerer Niederrhein –Jahresbeginn 2012 Abruf am 27 April 2012 auf http://krefeld ihk de/media/upload/ihk/Jahresbeginn 2012. Abruf am 27. April 2012, auf http://krefeld.ihk.de/media/upload/ihk/ imap/20120201/fachkraeftemangel_jb2012_imap.pdf

Industrie- und Handelskammer Mittlerer Niederrhein: Wachstumsbremse Fachkräftemangel eine Analyse des Arbeitsmarktes Mittlerer Niederrhein IHK Schriftenreihe Nr– eine Analyse des Arbeitsmarktes Mittlerer Niederrhein. IHK Schriftenreihe, Nr.

127/2010.

10. Regionalökonomisches Forum | 08. Mai 2012 | Fachkräftemangel am Niederrhein?!

Page 21: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Appendix – Additional Information

Analysis based on three graduate surveys in 2012Analysis based on three graduate surveys in 2012

1. Official university graduate survey

Online, Conducted in a biannual interval rythm, N=1700

2. Survey of Alumni networks

Online questionnaire, N=475

3. Survey of students in final semester

Possibility to compare migration plans with actual migration patterns, N = 225

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 22: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

2. Graduate Migration Patterns and DeterminantsOnline Survey of Alumni Network N = 475 (no time limit after grad )Online Survey of Alumni Network, N = 475 (no time limit after grad.)

N Mi ti Mi tiNo Migration

after graduation

Migration

after graduation∑

Origin inCLRA

Non Migrants12.4 %

Late Migrants30.5 %

42.9 %

Origin in anyth i

University Stayers6 2 %

Repeat Migrants50 9 %

57.1 %other region 6.2 % 50.9 % %

∑ 18 6 % 81 4 % 100∑ 18.6 % 81.4 % 100

Brainflow Balance – 24.3 %

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Online survey of alumni network 2012, N = 475

Page 23: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Appendix – Additional Information

International Experience…Migration probability  after a temporary 

stay abroad during the studiesp

• has no influence on migration probability 80%

90%100%

27,88%

6,90% 4,85%

stay abroad during the studies 

• but raises the distancerange of migrating 50%

60%70%

46 36%

36,21%27,88%

graduates

10%20%30%40%

20 7% 20 9%

36,21%46,36%

0%10%

Temporary Stay Abroad during studies

No Temporary Stay Abroad

20,7% 20,9%

during studies (>4Months)

Abroad

Central Lower Rhine Area Other parts of NRW

Other parts of Germany Europe

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Survey of alumni network 2012, N = 475

p y p

Page 24: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Appendix – Additional Information

Graduates accept contracts of lower attractiveness to remain in the region

100%Migration probability considering characteristics of the job contract

60%

80%

20%

40%

26 4% 24 9%32,5%

24 5%

43,0%

0%Total Permanent 

employment Fixed‐term employment 

Full‐time job Part‐time job

26,4% 24,9%,

24,5%

contract contract

Central Lower Rhine Area Within rest of NRW Within rest of NRWWithin rest of Europe Woldwide

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769

Page 25: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Appendix – Additional Information

High Starting Salaries are a Pull Factor

120%

Migration Probability considering the starting salary of graduates 

80%

100%

40%

60%

20%

%

30,0% 28,4% 30,2% 25,1% 20,0%8,6%

0%

0‐1000 € 1001‐2000 € 2001‐3000€ 3001‐4000€ 4001‐5000€ 5001‐6000€

Central Lower Rhine Area Within rest of NRW Within rest of NRW Within rest of Europe Worldwide

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769

Page 26: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

Appendix – Additional Information

Attractiveness of economic regions in North‐Rhine‐Westphalia based on a survey ofMINT graduates

0,2

0,3

0,4

ivitä

t

MINT graduates

0

0,1

0,2

0,02

0,350,22 0,24

0,15

t / A

ttrak

ti

‐0,3

‐0,2

‐0,1 ‐0,06‐0,35 ‐0,31 ‐0,26

utze

nwer

t

‐0,4Nu

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer

Page 27: Brain Drain or Brain Gain? - hs-niederrhein.de · Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions – Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany Niederrhein

1. Introduction

Universities induce expenditure effects, knowledge spillovers, produce human capital

Socio Cultural Impacts

p , g p , p pTo support the University Region Importance of local focus

Human CapitalKnowledged

Socio‐Cultural Impacts

Quality ofLocation

R&D Transfer

andTechnology Transfer

Region

Higher Education 

Spin Offs

Expenditure EffectsHi h Ed ti I tit ti

RegionInstitution

•Higher Education Institution• Students• Staff

ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, Ruhr-University Bochum


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