Brazilian Second Round: Post-Electoral Analysis
Wilson Center, Brazil Institute
November 1, Washington DC
The Crystallization of the Brazilian
Electorate
[ 3 ]
Final Results Crystallized Electorate
TSE
C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian
adult population
2002 2006 2010
PT Candidate 61 61 56
PSDB Candidate 39 39 44
PSDB 35%
PT 46%
Floaters 19%
[ 4 ]
No Movment in the 2nd Round
Institutoanalise
C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian
adult population
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5556 56
5756
55 5556 56 56
4544 44
4344
45 4544 44 44
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
10/17/2010 10/18/2010 10/19/2010 10/20/2010 10/21/2010 10/22/2010 10/23/2010 10/24/2010 10/25/2010 10/26/2010
Dilma Serra
The Electoral Environment
[ 6 ]
Explosion in “C Class” Middling Class
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
AB 26,421,172 32,809,554 28,078,466 29,377,015 30,217,541
C 62,702,248 66,716,976 86,207,480 84,621,066 92,850,384
DE 92,936,688 84,862,090 72,941,846 75,822,249 66,884,870
Total 182,060,108 184,388,620 187,227,792 189,820,330 189,952,795
Ipsos Cetelem 2005 - 2009
C Class increases by 30 million, from 34% to 49% of the Brazilian
adult population
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[ 7 ]
Election about Brazilian’s consupltion and mobility conquests...
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Dilma Serra Diff
Honest 41 48 -7
Adminstrative Experience 56 83 -27
Understands Poor People 64 50 14
Healthcare 35 54 -19
Education 48 43 5Increase Purchasing Power/Consumption 55 33 22
Generate Jobs 57 35 22
Dilma Next Steps
[ 9 ]
Lula First Year average 80%
FHC First Year Average 80%
Strong Economy and Positive Scenario Should keep Dilma’s Number up.
Less of honeymoon in Brazil
Approval Ratings
Where does the PSDB/Opposition go from here?
[ 11 ]
What is the PSDB’s vision for Brazil?
Both PT and PSDB are trying to fill the same space: Center-Left
Ultimately, both parties are very class oriented in their electoral make-up
Key Elite Issues
[ 12 ]
PSDB versus PT
Qual desses partidos é de oposição? Qual desses partidos mais defende a redução de impostos?
Qual desses partidos é de esquerda?
E qual é de direita?
Qual desses partidos mais defende os pobres?
E qual deles mais defende os ricos?
Qual desses partidos tem as pessoas mais preparadas para governar?
Qual desses partidos fala mais a linguagem que o povo entende?
Qual desses partidos tem os políticos menos desonestos?
E qual deles tem as pessoas que mais trabalham pelo Brasil?
E qual deles é o que mais combate a inflação?
E qual deles é que mais quer que a população compre mais?
Qual deles o(a) sr(a) gosta mais?
Qual deles o(a) sr(a) gosta menos?
PT
PFLPMDB
PSDB
Nenhum
Não sabe/Não respondeu
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
-0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6-- axis F1 (70 %) -->
-- a
xis
F2
(15
%)
-->
Ipsos 2008
Voter Demands: Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda
[ 14 ]
Rise of the Quality of Life Agenda: 2005 vs. 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Abr
-05
Mai
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Ago
-05
Set
-05
Out
-05
Nov
-05
Dez
-05
Jan-
06
Fev
-06
Mar
-06
Abr
-06
Mai
-06
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06
Jul-0
6
Ago
-06
Set
-06
Out
-06
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-06
Dez
-06
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07
Fev
-07
Mar
-07
Abr
-07
Mai
-07
Jul-0
7
Ago
-07
Set
-07
Nov
-07
Dez
-07
Jan-
08
Set
-08
Nov
-08
Dez
-08
Jan-
09
Fev
-09
Mar
-09
Abr
-09
Mai
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Ago
-09
Set
-09
Out
-09
Nov
-09
Dez
-09
Quality of Life Jobs and Economy
Middle Class Demand Profile
Inflation is #1 issue in 1993
[ 15 ]
Voter Agenda: Main Problems (September 2010)
8
8
9
14
19
27
37
44
49
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Housing
Lack of OpportuntiesYouth
Support for the poor
Corruption
Low Salaries
Education
Drug Trafficking
Healthcare
Jobs
Crime and Violence
Social Class
AB C DE
Crime and Violence 50 49 53
Jobs 44 49 54
Healthcare 41 43 48
Drug Trafficking 31 37 41
Education 39 27 15
Low Salaries 15 21 20
Corruption 20 14 10
Elite Agenda:The Bottleneck Agenda
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Education is Key (2009)
Elite Study 2009 Brasil: Jornalists, Politicians/Government, and Private Sector
70
46
23
19
18
15
10
45
%
Corruption
Health
Education
Crime
Government Incompetence
Jobs/Unemployment
Economic Development
Lack of support of the Poor
Constant Issues across polls
Education and
Infrastructure
[ 18 ]
Consensus Issues Bottlenecks Infrastructure and Education Impact on Macro-economic policies over the last
16 years Huge inequality problems hurt Brazil globally
Size of State and Taxes among private sector
Key Elite Issues