BRCWhattoExpect

7/31/2019 BRCWhattoExpect

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General Election 2010: What To Expect

A guide to processes, procedure and timetabling before, during and after a UK

General Election campaign


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Contents

Introduction Page 3

Dissolution of Parliament Page 4

Statutory instruments Page 5

Purdah Page 6

Consultations Page 6

Issuing of manifestos Page 7

Formation of a government after the election Page 9

The possibility of a hung Parliament Page 9

The Queens Speech and a possible emergency Budget Page 12


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Introduction

A General Election must be held by 3 June 2010 and is widely forecast to take place

on Thursday 6 May 2010. With the opinion polls suggesting a highly competitiveelection, the possibility exists not only of a Conservative or Labour government, butalso of a hung Parliament in which no party has a majority of seats. Whoever winsthe election, there will inevitably be major reshuffles of ministerial jobs and a re-organisation of government departments. This explains why this General Election isso keenly anticipated by everyone with an interest in UK government and politics,billed as the most exciting, competitive contest since 1997. Civil servants are trying toprepare for all possible outcomes: discussing policy plans with Labour and theConservatives and grappling with the complexities of an indeterminate outcome anda hung Parliament.

This paper is a guide to what happens when there is a General Election: from the

dissolution of Parliament, through the short campaign of around four weeks, to theelection itself on polling day, culminating in the election of a new government. Inparticular, it considers what happens to ongoing government consultations whenParliament is dissolved, and what happens to Statutory Instruments that are alreadygoing through Parliament at the point of dissolution.

One quirk of the British system is that, even when a General Election is widelyforecast to take place on a particular date, protocol dictates that official Britainlargely ignores this until the date is confirmed. For example, the Cabinet Office willissue General Election Guidance to civil servants, but this will only be issued oncethe General Election has actually been called. This document therefore refersinterested readers to the Cabinet Offices General Election Guidance 20051.

The rules governing civil servants behaviour during a General Election campaign doapply, to a limited extent, to the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales andNorthern Ireland:

While the devolved administrations will continue largely as normal, they (must)avoid any action which isparty-political orcontroversial in the context of theGeneral Election. They willnot brief or otherwise assist their Ministers in anyway that could lead to accusations that public resources were being used forparty political purposes.2

However, as the devolved administrations are not themselves up for election, thebusiness of devolved government will very much continue during this GeneralElection campaign.

The European Union (EU) and its officials are unaffected by the rules governing UKGeneral Election campaigns, as is the European Parliament.

1General Election Guidance 2005, Cabinet Office,

http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/cabinetoffice/propriety_and_ethics/assets/electguide.pdf2Ibid. Guidance Note L, The Devolved Administration


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Dissolution of Parliament

A General Election campaign formally begins with the Dissolution of Parliament.3

Each Parliament begins after each General Election and ends when it is dissolved forthe next General Election; by law, a General Election must be held at least onceevery five years, so there is a new Parliament after each General Election.

It is the Queen who dissolves Parliament when asked to do so by the Prime Minister;so, if Gordon Brown requires a General Election on Thursday 6 May, he must go tothe Palace and ask for one constitutional convention dictates that the Queen neverrefuses a Prime Ministers request for a dissolution. It is most likely that GordonBrown will go to the Palace on Tuesday 6 April and ask the Queen for a dissolution,with polling day set for Thursday 6 May.

When Parliament is dissolved, a Royal Proclamation is issued summoning the new

Parliament to meet after the General Election. Writs of election are issued requiringthe General Election to be held within seventeen working days. The dissolution ofParliament dissolves both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.

Despite the dissolution of Parliament, government ministers remain in office asministers throughout the General Election campaign; however, they will, in practice,not be spending time in their government departments, but will be out and about onthe election campaign trail. The ministers remain in nominal charge of theirdepartments, while, in reality, senior civil servants run things in ministers absence,meaning that controversial political decisions are largely avoided. This period ofpolitical abstinence is known as purdah and is discussed in more detail on page 6.

Parliament does not need to be sitting for the Queen to dissolve it; in theory, a PrimeMinister can call an election during the recess. When Parliament is sitting and thePrime Minister calls a General Election, it is customary to then have a short wash-upperiod lasting a few days before Parliament is actually dissolved. In this period, theGovernment negotiates with the opposition parties so that Parliament can pass somepieces of outstanding legislation before Parliament is dissolved this usually meansquickly rubber-stamping those Bills that had almost completed their progress throughParliament and require no further debate. For example, the Digital Economy Bill isexpected to be fast-tracked to Royal Assent (and become law) under this processbefore the dissolution. This wash-up process can be fractious, with opposition partiessometimes choosing to frustrate the Governments legislative ambitions in a febrilepre-election atmosphere.

Legislation not passed at this point be it government legislation or a PrivateMembers Bill will drop off the agenda and must be re-introduced post-election if itis to reach fruition. For example, the Remembrance Sunday (Closure of Shops Bill),introduced by Sir Patrick Cormack MP, is due for its Second Reading on 23 April. IfParliament has been dissolved, the Bill will fall and will not proceed unlesssomeone introduces it as a new Bill after the election; Parliament will not be sitting on23 April, and Sir Patrick Cormack is retiring from the House of Commons at thiselection.

3General Election timetables, House of Commons Library,

http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/briefings/snpc-04454.pdf


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In practice, it is simplest to assume that very little will happen in Parliament in the fewdays leading up to a dissolution. If there is a General Election on Thursday 6 May,then Gordon Brown is widely expected to go to the Palace and announce it on

Tuesday 6 April, with the official Proclamation of dissolution and issue of writ takingplace on Thursday 8 April (it would have to happen by Monday 12 April). Such aschedule would, therefore, leave a very few working days before everything stops atthe point of dissolution; it is unrealistic to expect that anything substantive will takeplace on those days.

Statutory Instruments

Many changes to the law are made by delegated legislation or secondarylegislation through Statutory Instruments (SIs). This means that Parliament willhave passed an Act (primary legislation) saying that a minister can change the law.When the minister wishes to make the relevant change to the law, an SI will pass

through Parliament, granting permission for a minister to exercise this power.

SIs can include major measures that are of great interest to the retail sector; they arenot confined only to dry, technical measures. The current raft of draft SIs, forexample, includes regulations affecting paternity leave and pay, with clearimplications for retailers as employers. Also, many key EU regulations areimplemented in the UK via SIs.

Of those SIs that are subject to Parliamentary control, some are subject toaffirmative resolution and some to negative resolution. Those that are subject toaffirmative resolution cannot become law unless they are approved by both Housesof Parliament. Those that are subject to negative resolution become law without

debate unless someone opposes them (prays against them) within forty days (notforty working days, but forty days including weekends, etc) of their having been laidbefore the House.

When Parliament is dissolved, that forty-day period is suspended.4 Forexample, if a negative SI has reached the sixteenth day on which it can beprayed against, and Parliament is then dissolved on that day, the forty-dayperiod will then resume (with day seventeen) on the first day of the newParliament after the General Election. The SI will not need to be laid beforeParliament again, but will continue its progress as if the dissolution had neveroccurred. Affirmative SIs will come into force if they have completed theirpassage through Parliament prior to the dissolution, but no new ones will beintroduced while Parliament is not sitting.

4Statutory Instrument Practice, Office of Public Sector Information, Her Majestys Stationery Office,

http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si-practice.doc


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Purdah

Purdah is the period between the calling of a General Election and polling day

itself.

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If, on 6 April, an election is called for 6 May, then purdah will cover the weeksbetween 6 April and 6 May. The idea of purdah (which is not defined in law andwhich is not legally enforced) is that civil servants should not promote theGovernments agenda while that Government is seeking re-election. Under normalcircumstances, outside of a General Election campaign, civil servants will promoteministerial announcements in a manner that might reflect well on the government,which is an advantage for whichever party is in office at the time.

While the country is choosing a government during the election campaign, it isconsidered important not to allow the party of government to enjoy that advantage.Purdah therefore means that civil servants become even more strictly neutral thanthey are at all other times and avoid making major announcements about matters of

public dispute (although statistics will still be issued according to the pre-determinedschedule). The argument behind this is that, during an election campaign, it is for theLabour Party, and not the civil service, to promote the Labour Governments agenda,given that Labour is seeking re-election.

This most certainly does not mean that the business of government grinds to a halt,as most day to day business does not require the presence of ministers and is notdirectly political. There are many old civil service jokes about how surprisingly easy itis to get things done without ministers being there! For example, whoever wins theelection, each government department knows that there will still be a minister afterthe election, so they can put appointments in the ministerial diary without needing toknow who the minister will be.

Many, if not most, BRC members appointments with civil servants can go aheadduring the election campaign without regard to purdah. The best advice is perhaps todemonstrate to civil servants that one has a courteous awareness that civil purdahexists, while leaving it to civil servants to cancel meetings, etc. Unless a civil servantsays that purdah creates a problem, it is reasonable to assume that there isnt one.Civil servants will be well aware of the sensitivities surrounding the election and theymay choose not to meet to discuss controversial issues.

Consultations

Purdah does have some affect on consultations. Civil servants are instructed that, ingeneral, consultations should not be launched during the election campaign period.One reason for this is that the launching of a consultation can itself be politicallysensitive. If, for example, a minister announces that the Government is consulting onintroducing a measure that would be very popular with the electorate, the mere act oflaunching the consultation could itself be popular, benefiting the party of government.If there are exceptional circumstances where launching a consultation is consideredessential (for example, for safeguarding public health), civil servants must seekexpress permission from the Propriety and Ethics Team in the Cabinet Office.These rules also apply to consultations run by government agencies such as theEnvironment Agency and the Food Standards Agency.

5Purdah, or the pre-election period, House of Commons Library,

http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/briefings/snpc-05262.pdf


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Civil servants are instructed to continue to launch consultations as normal until anelection is formally called; however, in reality, when everyone knows that an electionis just around the corner, few civil servants will launch major consultations on

controversial subjects,

However, if a consultation is ongoing at the time an election is called, it will continueas normal, and for the standard 12-week period, but with a ban on publicity for theseongoing consultations. Civil servants can decide to prolong a consultation periodbeyond twelve weeks if they believe that the ban on publicity would be detrimental tothe consultation.

There will be many consultations such as those aimed solely at particularprofessional groups on which the election campaign will make only a very limitedimpact.

Conclusion: On all consultations, government departments may continue toreceive and analyse responses with a view to putting proposals to theGovernment post-election, but they should not make any statement orgenerate publicity during this period. Although there will be no newconsultations during the election campaign, the BRC and its members shouldfind that many consultations continue largely uninterrupted during this periodof roughly four weeks. EU consultations are unaffected by the rules governingUK General Elections.

Issuing of manifestos

In roughly the first week of the election campaign, each political party will issue a

manifesto setting out its policies for the next Parliament, outlining what that partywould do if it won the General Election and formed a government. Each partysmanifesto is a major promotional exercise for that party, but very few members of thepublic actually ever read manifestos. The point of issuing a manifesto is to attractpublicity for its launch, so that the media will report on the key messages that theparty is seeking to convey to the electorate. Also, any party that did not issue amanifesto would be accused, by its opponents, of lacking a thought-through policyprospectus a charge that could be damaging for a party that seriously aspires togovernment.

Parties also issue policy documents between General Elections, including pre-manifesto papers in the run-up to an election. The Conservatives, in particular, haverecently issued a range of detailed Green Papers on issues including energy,planning and health as a way of broadcasting their key messages in the run-up to theelection. The parties actual election manifestos will build upon such documents,while probably being much shorter and less detailed than the Green Papers havebeen.

One practical implication of manifestos is the Salisbury doctrine. While oppositionparties in the House of Lords have the power to vote against any legislation proposedby the Government, it is conventional for them not to vote down any piece oflegislation that was in the governing partys election manifesto on the basis that theGovernment has won an electoral mandate for the policies outlined in its manifesto.

In the days when the Lords had a permanent Conservative majority, this meant thatConservative peers would allow Labour governments to pass most of the legislationthat they proposed; otherwise there would have been gridlock. Now that no party has


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a majority of seats in the House of Lords, the situation is much less clear-cut, but thefact that a proposed piece of legislation was included in the winning partys electionmanifesto can still be used as a major justification for putting it through Parliament.

Conversely, when a government introduces legislation that was not pre-figured in itselection manifesto, it is common for opponents to claim that the government has nomandate for the legislation concerned, and should not be introducing it.

Conclusion: There are few rules about when manifestos are issued or aboutwhat they will contain. Manifestos are often presentational exercises ratherthan serious policy papers. It is possible that the manifestos will notthemselves include policy announcements that the BRC and its members arenot already familiar with. It is widely anticipated that the upcoming GeneralElection campaign will focus mainly on which party is best equipped tomanage the economy following the recession. While economic management isclearly an issue of huge significance to the retail sector, it is reasonable to

assume that retail will probably not, in itself, become an election issue,although the manifestos will cover issues affecting our sector, includingplanning, crime, alcohol, the environment and taxation. It is difficult to predictwhich issues and events will hit the headlines during a volatile GeneralElection campaign. The UKs first televised party leaders debates will furtherincrease this volatility, putting the spotlight on any issue (big or small) onwhich a leader is considered to have slipped up during a debate.


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Formation of a government after the election

Under Britains unwritten constitution, the Queen appoints the Government and the

Prime Minister. If Labour or the Conservatives win a majority of seats in the House ofCommons on Thursday 6 May, the leader of the winning party will simply go toBuckingham Palace on the morning after to tell the Queen that he believes that hecan form a government. Mr Brown or Mr Cameron (whichever it is) will then kisshands and accept the Queens commission to form a government with himself asPrime Minister, and will proceed to Downing Street to make a speech on the steps ofNumber 10 as the new PM. Whether Labour or the Conservatives win, constitutionalconvention dictates that it is a new administration, even if it is a fourth term for theexisting Labour government.

The Prime Minister will then appoint his Cabinet and other, more junior, governmentministers. He has complete discretion to appoint any MP or member of the House of

Lords and there are always many surprise appointments at this point. In 1997, ChrisSmith was Labours Shadow Health Secretary throughout the election campaign, butwas not appointed Health Secretary in the newly elected government. The nextgovernment could thus include ministers who were not on the shadow team inopposition. It is usual for the Cabinet to be appointed the very day after polling, withjunior ministers having all been appointed by the end of the weekend.

The Prime Minister also has the power to abolish, create and rename governmentdepartments at will, usually without the need for legislation, as he is acting underRoyal Prerogative and so has absolute control. It is possible, therefore, that there willbe some restructuring and renaming of those government departments that mattermost to the retail sector. It is difficult to anticipate what changes will take place, nor is

government required to consult on them the Prime Ministers word is law, and suchchanges can happen very fast. For example, in 1997, the incoming Deputy PrimeMinister, John Prescott, was allocated a newly created Department of theEnvironment, Transport & the Regions with immediate effect on Friday 2 May thevery day after the election.

The possibility of a hung Parliament

There has been much media speculation about a hung Parliament, which simplymeans that no one political party has a majority of seats in the House of Commons.6As there will be 650 seats in the Commons post-election, then a party must win 326seats if it is to have a majority (or 325 seats, with the Speakers casting vote). If noparty wins a majority, then it is possible that two or more parties could work together.This has led to much media speculation about a coalition government between theConservatives or Labour and the Liberal Democrats. However, a formal coalition,involving two parties sharing ministerial jobs, remains a highly unlikely outcome.

The last time that a UK General Election produced a hung Parliament was February1974. Prior to this election, the Conservatives had been governing with a Commonsmajority under Edward Heath. The election resulted in no party having a majority ofseats in the House of Commons, although Labour was the largest single party. Asthe incumbent Prime Minister, Heath went to the Queen the day after the election

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Who Governs? Forming a coalition or a minority government in the event of a hung Parliament,Study of Parliament Group/Hansard Society,

http://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/files/folders/2410/download.aspx


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and said that he believed that he could form a government. Heath then spent theweekend negotiating with the third party, the Liberals, on forming a coalition. As theConservatives and Liberals could not reach agreement, Heath then told the Queen

that he could not form a government and resigned. The Labour leader, HaroldWilson, then became Prime Minister at the head of a minority government, without aCommons majority, until October 1974, when he called a second General Electionand won a Commons majority.

This example gives some indication of how a hung Parliament scenario might unfold,including the possibility that no new government will emerge for some days after theelection. In many other European countries, and in the devolved administrations ofScotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, it is commonplace for many days or weeks topass before a government is formed after an election. However, public opinion andthe markets are used to UK General Elections producing a decisive result withinhours, so a delay in forming a government would represent uncharted territory. It is

possible that public opinion and the markets would react negatively to an unclearresult and a delay in forming a government, particularly at a time of economicuncertainty.

If there is a hung Parliament this time, Gordon Brown will remain Prime Minister,even if Labour is not the largest party, and the Queen will give him the first go atforming a government. Mr Brown could simply head a minority government, but thatwould be vulnerable to being voted out by the non-Labour majority of MPs and somight be a non-starter. Alternatively, Mr Brown could negotiate a deal with one ormore smaller parties, whose MPs would combine with Labour to give Mr Brown aCommons majority. When the Labour Government lost its majority in 1977, Labourand the Liberals forged the Lib-Lab Pact, under which the Liberal MPs remained in

opposition, but agreed to support the Government in key Commons votes, enablingthe Government to survive. Many experts believe that such an arrangement is morelikely than a formal coalition, given the difficulties in persuading two competingpolitical parties to serve together in government.

Should Mr Brown fail to form a government, the Queen will send for David Cameronas Leader of the Opposition; Mr Cameron will then be faced with the same options asMr Brown, ranging from heading a minority government to forming a coalition with asmaller party. Should neither Mr Brown nor Mr Cameron be able to form agovernment, the result could be an immediate second General Election. Even whenHarold Wilson managed to form a minority Labour Government in February 1974, itwas only a matter of months before Wilson called a second General Election inpursuit of a majority.

Should there be a hung Parliament, the likely scenarios include:

1. Labour or the Conservatives (whichever is the largest party) form aminority government without doing a deal with any other party. As in 1974,the main opposition party does not bring the minority government down,as it has no desire for an immediate election. Such a minority governmentwould be unable to do much that is controversial (including to cut thedeficit) and the markets would see this as a recipe for instability. Thisadministration probably lasts for a few months before the Prime Minister

calls another General Election in a bid to get a majority.


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2. Labour or the Conservatives form a coalition with another party(presumably the Liberal Democrats), so that the Labour or Conservativeleader is Prime Minister, with some Liberal Democrat ministers in the

Government. Before every election, there is always speculation about ahung Parliament resulting in a coalition of this type and it has never yethappened, but it remains an outside possibility. There are few peacetimeBritish precedents for competing political parties agreeing to sit together inCabinet, bound by collective responsibility to agree publicly on all mattersof import, with their MPs whipped to vote together in favour of the coalitiongovernments policies.

3. Labour or the Conservatives reach an arrangement with the LiberalDemocrats falling short of a formal coalition, e.g. the Conservatives andLiberal Democrats agree that the Conservatives will govern (with theLiberal Democrats remaining outside government, on the opposition

benches) for an agreed period, e.g. four years. During this period, theConservatives will be committed to implementing certain key LiberalDemocrat policy pledges, in return for the Liberal Democrats committingto support the Conservatives in key Commons votes. Many commentatorsview this as a more likely outcome than a formal coalition, as it wouldenable the parties to maintain their independence from each other.

4. A Labour or Conservative minority government forges a confidence andsupply deal with one or more opposition parties. On this basis, all partiesaccept that there has to be a government of some sort, even if partiescannot reach a deal in a hung Parliament. The largest party thereforeforms a minority government, with some opposition MPs agreeing to

support the government on all matters of confidence (when thegovernment could fall if it loses the vote) and supply (when the vote isabout giving the government money to conduct its business). This meansthat, while the government has to compromise with other parties on itsdetailed policies, it can continue to govern for the period of years coveredby the deal. Such a deal could apply if Labour or the Conservatives areonly a few seats short of a majority, and a minority government forged arelatively informal confidence and supply deal with a minor party such asthe SNP, Plaid Cymru or Northern Ireland parties.

Conclusion: It is difficult to predict not only whether there will be a hungParliament, but also what will happen if there is one. The course of eventswould be strongly influenced by whether the largest party is far short of amajority, or only a few seats off. A Labour/Lib Dem or Conservative/LibDem coalition would be a sensational development (Liberals have notserved in a UK government since 1945), hence the newspapers fondnessfor speculating about it it is a good news story. However, the oddsagainst a coalition government including ministers from more than partyremain high.


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The Queens Speech and a possible emergency Budget

Each session of Parliament begins with the annual State Opening, at which the

Queen reads out her governments legislative programme for the coming year.There is therefore a Queens Speech at the start of each new Parliamentfollowing a General Election, with Parliament returning a few days after pollingday. In 1997, when Labour replaced the Conservatives in power on 1 May,Parliament returned on 7 May, after which a few days were spent electing/re-electing the Speaker and swearing in all MPs, before the Queens Speech on 14May. In the run-up to the 1997 General Election, Labour will have given detailedconsideration to the contents of its first Queens Speech, as will the civil service the same will be happening now with the Conservatives. The Queens Speechwill reflect the winning partys manifesto, with a few unexpected policies thrown into attract favourable media attention. If a hung Parliament has resulted in anarrangement between more than one party, the contents of the Queens Speech

may be the subject of intense negotiation.

The Conservatives have declared their intention, if they win, to bring in anemergency Budget very soon after taking office. If Labour wins, they will notintroduce a new Budget, but will instead implement the Budget that theyintroduced on Wednesday 24 March.

Conclusion:The time after the election will be very busy in terms of policy:a Queens Speech setting out the Governments programme, and a possibleBudget setting out what could be radical measures to cut the deficit. Theanalysis that has been undertaken, pre-election, of the parties policypriorities will thus prove crucial in planning for what is likely to emerge in

the Queens Speech and the Budget.

For further information about the processes and procedures governing theperiods before, during or after a UK General Election campaign, please contactthe BRCs public affairs team using the details below.

This guide is but one piece of work that the BRC has undertaken in advance ofthe 2010 general election. We have also invested considerable resourcepromoting the retail sector to current MPs, as well as a targeted number ofcandidates seeking election to Parliament. A web portal has also beendeveloped specifically to increase awareness of the retail sector and our keycampaigning issues amongst future politicians. This can be accessed atwww.brc.org.uk/election2010.

Matthew Harris Alison GardinerPublic Affairs Public AffairsT: 020 7854 8951 T: 020 7854 8936E: [email protected] E: [email protected]

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