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Breaking Up is Hard to Do: The Use of Imagery from Weather Satellites to An=cipate and Observe Breakup Flooding in Alaska Eric Stevens 1 and Jessica Cherry 2 1 Geographic Informa;on Network of Alaska (GINA), University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) 2 Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center (APRFC), Na;onal Weather Service (NWS) March 15, 2017 1
Transcript
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BreakingUpisHardtoDo:TheUseofImageryfromWeatherSatellites

toAn=cipateandObserveBreakupFloodinginAlaskaEricStevens1andJessicaCherry2

1GeographicInforma;onNetworkofAlaska(GINA),UniversityofAlaskaFairbanks(UAF)2AlaskaPacificRiverForecastCenter(APRFC),Na;onalWeatherService(NWS)

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Today’sJourney

1.  TheChallenge2.  Alaska’sadvantage:polar-orbi=ngweathersatellites3.  Howweathersatelliteshelpan=cipatebreakupflooding4.  Howweathersatelliteshelpmonitorbreakupflooding5.  Referencesandcontactinforma=on

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TheChallenge:Galena,May,2013

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RecipeforaBreakupFlood1.  Amoderateorheavysnowpackaccumulatesoverthelandscapeby

theendofwinter.2.  TemperaturesinAprilarecoolerthannormal,thusdelayingthe

mel=ngofthesnowpackandmaintainingthesolidityoftheiceontherivers.

3.  TemperaturesinMayrisesuddenly,thusmel=ngthesnowpackquickly.

4.  Theresul=ngmeltwaterrushesintotherivers,liVstheriverice,andtherivericebeginstoflowdownstream.

5.  Chunksoficemayjamata=ghtspotinariver,suchasBishopRockontheYukonRivernearGalena.Withtheriverthusblocked,waterlevelsupstreamofthejamwillriseandcauseflooding.

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HowDoWeatherSatellitesHelp?•  Satellitescanshowtheloca=onofthesnowpack•  Inhorizontalspace…maybeoneregionofAlaskahaslesssnow,butanotherregionhaslotsofsnow.Also,thesnowtendstomeltintheInteriorfirst,andthenmeltlaterinwesternAlaskaandontheNorthSlope•  Inver=calspace…duringbreakupthesnowmeltsatthelowereleva=onsfirst,andthenthemel=ngprogressesuphillastemperaturescon=nuetowarm•  Somesatellitedataevenindicatestheamountofwaterheldwithinthesnowpack

• Oncefloodinghasbegun,satelliteimagerycandepictthehorizontalextentoftheflooding,asthewaterleavestheriverbedandspreadsacrossthelandscapeandintovillages

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Alaska’sAdvantage:Polar-Orbi=ngWeatherSatellites

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TheProsandConsofPolarOrbiterDataAvailabletoMeteorologistsPros

•  Satelliteiscompara=velyclosetotheearth…thusfinerspa=alresolu=onofimagerythangeosta=onary•  SatellitefliesdirectlyoverAlaska:no(oratleastless)problemwithparallax•  Largenumberofpassesperday,thankstoAlaska’shighla=tude•  Asmallconstella=onofsatellitesincreasestheamountofcoverage

Cons• Gapsin=mebetweenimages• Coverageislimitedto“stripes,”andsome=mestheareaofinterestliesjustoutsideofastripe•  Eachsatellitehasitsown“personality”

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RemoteSensingofAlaskaFloodFactors:

• Snow• Groundwater• Breakupphysicsinresponsetospringweatherandicethickness

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FloodFactor#1:GriddedEs=matesofSnowWaterLoads

ProductsusedinCONUS/CanadanotavailableforAlaska

•  NOHRSCSNODASAnalysisSWE

•  EnvtCanadaSSMISSWE

ProductsthatexistforAKbutaren’tusedatAPRFC

•  AMSR2SWE,depth•  MIRSSWE(SNPP/ATMS,DMSP/SSMIS,MetOp/AMSU)

ProductsinAPRFCWorksta=ons

• LSMsSWE,depth• Snow-17model

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FloodFactor#1:ExampleofMicrowaveProductChallenges

•  AMSR-2isthesuccessortoJAXA’sAMSR-E(AdvancedMicrowaveScanningRadiometer)onGCOM-W1

•  Microwavebasedes=matesofSWEandSnowDepth,signalaoenuatesquicklyindeepsnow

•  ShowntohavesomeskillinveryshallowsnowpackinopenareaslikeGreatPlains

•  DepthhoarisanotherproblemthatwouldbiasmeasurementsinaplacelikeNorthSlope,AK

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NIPRFundedWork:BorealAMSR-2SWEAlgorithmImprovement

March15,2017 11

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NIPRFundedWork:BorealAMSR-2SWEAlgorithmImprovement

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NIPRFundedWork:BorealAMSR-2SWEAlgorithmImprovement

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14

EvenSnowCoverProductshaveBiases:MODISvs.AirborneImagery

BenneoandCherry,forthcomingMarch15,2017

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NOHRSCSnowAnalysis

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NOHRSC’sAirborneGammaSurveys

hop://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowsurvey/March15,2017 16

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NOHRSCAlaska2016

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NOHRSCAKInterior2016

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MunsonRidgeNOHRSCLine,April6,2016

CherryMarch15,2017 19

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MunsonRidgeNOHRSCLine,April21,2016

CherryMarch15,2017 20

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MunsonRidgeNOHRSCLine,May8,2016

CherryMarch15,2017 21

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FloodFactor#2:GroundwaterSagRiverFloodingDaltonHighway

hop://www.ktva.com/March15,2017 22

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JPSS/GMUFloodProduct

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JPSS/GMUFloodProduct

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SenGnelSARdifferencing:EarlyMarch-LateFebruary

ASFMarch15,2017 25

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FloodFactor#3:icephysics

YukonRiveratCircle,May7,2015

Cherry,2015March15,2017 26

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May3,2015

May5,2015

YukonatDawson

FloodFactor#3:icephysicsCherry,2015

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Valida=onofJPSS/CCNYProducts

May3,YukonnearEagle

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JPSS/GMUAlgorithmImprovement:Dr.SanmeiLivisitstheYukonRiver

Cherry,2016March15,2017 29

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IceJamatCalicoBluffs(YukonRivernearEagle,AK)

Cherry,2016March15,2017 30

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Bassich,2016March15,2017 31

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May27,2012

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March15,2017 33

May28,2013

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New(ish)RiverIceandFloodingProduct

• Goalistoclearlyhighlightoverlandfloodingviaa“derived”product• Usesthiscombina=onofwavelengths:•  0.64µm,theclassicvisiblechannelthat’sbeenused…forever•  0.86µm,the“veggieband”•  1.61µm,the“snow/iceband”•  11.5µm,theclassiclongwaveinfraredchannelthat’sbeenused…forever

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ThereareAlwaysSomeGotchas…

• Withrelianceonshorterwavelengths,thesunmustbeup•  …happily,duringspringbreakupandsummerthereisamplesunshine

• Cannotseethroughclouds•  …happily,breakupfloodingoVenoccursunderclearskies

• At375mspa=alresolu=on,productnotsuitedforcomplexterrain•  …happily,well-suitedforflaoerterrain

• BasedonVIIRSdata,thusjustahandfulofpassesperday

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FindThisProducton“RealEarth”

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ContactInfo

•  JessicaCherry•  Hydrologist,NWSAnchorage•  [email protected]

•  EricStevens•  ScienceLiaison,UAF-GINA•  [email protected]

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References

• Alaska-PacificRiverForecastCenterhop://www.weather.gov/aprfc/•  Trainingmodule,“JPSSRiverIceandFloodProducts”hops://www.meted.ucar.edu/satmet/river_ice_flooding/• RiverFloodProduct:hop://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/• NewsstoriesfromGalenafloodof2013•  hops://www.adn.com/rural-alaska/slideshow/photos-city-galena-underwater-yukon-river-floods/2013/06/01/•  hop://news.sky.com/story/alaska-town-floods-as-ice-jam-clogs-river-10444442

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