Breakout Session IV - CC&E Contributions Towards Analyzing Impacts and Consequences

of Global Change

Modeling Challenges and

Forecasting Impacts

Co-Chairs: S. Doney1, C. Vörösmarty2,3

1Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2University of New Hampshire3As of 1 September: City College of New York/CUNY

Breakout on Modeling/ForecastingCo-Chairs: S. Doney, C. Vörösmarty

Original Core Questions: 

• What research can we conduct to better address the impacts and consequences of global change?

• What actions would be most useful to or supportive of future assessments?

• What are the greatest challenges and opportunities (relevant to the breakout topic)?

New Demands on Earth System Science

• Global Policy on Climate Change

• Security Challenges

–Infrastructure at Risk

–Food Security

–Energy Security

–Water security

–Economic development

• Public Need for Accurate Information

Agent-based models

Science-driven sensor & technology development

Observation networks

Change detection

Computationally intensivelandscape models

High resolution Earth System simulations

Complex Information Streams

Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap

T

2002 2010 2012 2014 20152004

Reduced flux uncertainties; global carbon dynamics

Funded

Unfunded

Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance

N. America’s carbon budget quantified

Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)

2006 2008

Reduced flux uncertainties; coastal carbon dynamics

NA Carbon NA Carbon Global C Cycle

T = Technology development

Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for planet

IPCC IPCC

Effects of tropical deforestation quantified; uncertaintiesin tropical carbon source reduced

= Field Campaign

Physiology & Functional Types

Go

als:

Glo

bal

pro

du

ctiv

ity

and

lan

d c

ove

r ch

ang

e at

fin

e re

solu

tio

n;

bio

mas

s an

d c

arb

on

flu

xes

qu

anti

fied

; u

sefu

l ec

olo

gic

al f

ore

cast

s an

d im

pro

ved

clim

ate

chan

ge

pro

ject

ion

s

Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, & Disturbance T Terrestrial carbon stocks &

species habitat characterized

Models w/improved ecosystem functions

High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2 Sub-regional sources/sinks

Integrated global analyses

CH4 sources characterized and quantified

Report

P

Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)

Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)

Land Cover (Landsat) LDCM Land Cover (OLI)

Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)

Models & Computing Capacity

Case Studies

Process UnderstandingImprovements:

Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation); Global Air-Sea Flux

T

Partnership

N. American Carbon Program

Land Use Change in Amazonia

Global CH4; Wetlands, Flooding & Permafrost

Global C Cycle

Kn

ow

led

ge

Bas

e

2002: Global productivity and land cover resolution coarse; Large uncertainties in biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events

Systematic Observations

Process controls; errors in sink reduced

Coastal Carbon

Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea CO2 Flux

0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360°

1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

0° 60° 120° 180° 240° 300° 360°Longitude Longitude

Coverage or Quality

GoodPoor

Yea

r

Observations• Spatially/temporally patchy

• Quality: High to Low• Challenging to explain in aggregate

SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING

1900-50

Paleo

1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

Paleo

1900-50

INDUCTIVE PATHSpecific to General

DEDUCTIVE PATH General to Specific

Modeled Outputs• Spatially/temporally contiguous

• Physically-consistent but incomplete• Gap-filling

SYNERGY BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELED OUTPUTS

From: Hall & O’Connell (2007), Proc. Inst. Civ.E., Original from IPCC

Evolution of GCMsinto ESMs

Policy and Decision Support Modeling

The Day Has Arrived Where We Need to Think of Regional Carbon Inventories and Regional Ecosystem Management

Well-Intended Ooops! • Decisions being made by non-scientists on an Earth system that includes biogeophysics and humans • Failure of ESS knowledge to be conveyed • A ‘learning moment’?? For us: forecast user needs

For the rest: no silver bullets

Google search: 29 April 2008

Breakout on Modeling/ForecastingCo-Chairs: S. Doney, C. Vörösmarty

• Are NASA research results adequately informing the assessment process? (e.g. IPCC-FAR, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, ACIA)

• If so….job done!• If not, what is the strategy forward:

– Droning on re: “we need more data”, “we need better models”?

OR….. – New ways of thinking through

•Different ideas on the use of data? ID high impact data?•Different classes of models?•Different target audiences? (e.g. private sector, media vs just other scientists)•Other approaches