Brexit – its implication forbusinesses

Steve FowlerManaging Director, Amarreurs Consulting Ltd

IFAA – 12th Educational ConferenceLONDON, 8th February 2018

How did weget here ?

How did weget here ?

Nature of a good project

1. Clear and compelling rationale2. Strong charismatic sponsor (Obama – Affordable Care

Act)3. Buy-in from key stakeholders (London Olympics)4. Clarity of scope5. Precise finish line (Kennedy - Man on the moon by end

of the decade)6. Resources to do it7. Flexibility (Changing world)

And how do weprepare for it ?

Uncertainty

UncertaintyExternal and internal factors that might impact an organisation toachieve its objectives.

Examples of causes of uncertainty• War, terrorism and migration.• Climate change and natural disasters.• Economic, social and political changes.• Financial crises.• New technologies and cyber crime.• Volatility of supply chain or energy supply.• BREXIT.

A definition of risk

“Risk arises from interactions between objectives (what must happen)and uncertainty (what might happen).

Therefore, risk is uncertainty that matters.”

Dr. David Hillson aka ‘The Risk Doctor’

Risk = opportunity or threat

Opportunities ?

• Cheaper exports ?

• End to subsidising competitors across Europe ?

• Access to new markets ?

• Freedom from regulation ?

• Less social tension ?

Threats ?

• More expensive imports ?

• Labour shortages ?

• More red tape ?

• Reduced growth ?

• More social tension ?

What we know and what we don’t know

1. Currency

2. Wealth

3. Labour

4. Regulatory

5. Markets

The risk management process

Understanding the scope

• What does Brexit actually mean ?• Leaving the EU ?• Leaving the Single Market ?• Leaving the Customs Union ?• Leaving the European Court of Justice ?• What about the European Court of Human Rights ?• What about NATO and Euratom ?

• What do we know ?• And what don’t we know ?

The bigger picture• Expect the unexpected – known and unknown knowns

• Emerging global risks

• Changing markets

• Complex businesses

• Some useful techniques to survive

Known and Unknown Knowns

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Chaos &ParadoxVolatility

Uncertainty

Complexity

Ambiguity

Expect the unexpected – VUCA times

Emerging global risks

Technological

EnvironmentalEconomic

Geopolitical

Societal

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Typical simplebusiness model

Outcomes

Customer

CustomerSupplierSupplierSupplier

Supplier

Welcome to the world of complex processes,structures – and businesses…………...

Joint endeavour

Multiple Economic and SocialEnvironments

OutcomesPrincipalcontractor

Agents

Customer

Customer

Supplier 1

Government

Subcontractor

Subcontractor

Regulator

Supplier 2Supplier 3

Regulator

Cloud ITprovider

Labour

Managing in a world of complex risksRecognise that complexity = possible chaos

– Understand your business and its risks

– Have the information needed to run your business

– Understand how the outside world is changing

Look not just at risk magnitude and likelihood, but…also risk velocity– manage risk at the speed of the business

And risk interconnectedness

Avoid group think - three heads (or twelve) are better than two

Seek knowledge – from others or new research

Complex Systems

Scenario planning

Business resilience

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So, what can we do ?• Understand it’s a complex evolving landscape

• Understand who to believe as well as what

• Don’t forget the bigger picture

• Recognise complexity – identify emerging trends and risks

• Perform impact assessments

• Excellence in communication

• Build resilience

• Embed risk thinking

• Build diversity

• Challenge conventional thought, avoid group think and think theunthinkable

Thank you …..

Email:steve@amarreurs.comTel: +44 7952 257898

Steve FowlerManaging DirectorAmarreurs ConsultingLtd

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