Brexit & the U.S. Elections Santiago, Chile November 9, 2016 … · 2018-10-01 · Brexit & the...

Brexit & the U.S. Elections

Santiago, Chile

November 9, 2016

Sarah Jane Mahmud

Regulatory Analyst

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Vote to leave the EU: 23 June

Legal consequences

No precedent

Lengthy exit process

Constitutional challenge

Access to 27 EU countries



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“Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.” “A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.” “The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification.” - Treaty of Lisbon



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“The Crown has no prerogative power to effect a withdrawal from the Community Treaties on whose continues existence the EU law rights introduced into domestic law depend . . . . The Crown therefore has no prerogative power to effect a

withdrawal . . . . We hold that the Secretary of State does not have power under the Crown’s prerogative to give notice pursuant to Article 50 for the United Kingdom to withdraw

from the European Union.”

- Court Judgment (3 November 2016)



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“During the past twenty years, we have incorporated more than 10,000 EU rules into the EEA agreement …. However, we have had little direct influence over these rules …. We are merely consulted. The EU is under no obligation to listen. We have to work hard to make our voice heard …. I have a hard time seeing the UK, with

its global ambition, dedication and contributions, being comfortable with such an arrangement.”

- Norwegian Government



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Over 120 sector-specific treaties

Unique model

Free movement rules

Not sustainable

Limits size of financial centre

EU unlikely to offer same option



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Default option

Used by Brazil, Russia

No favourable relationships

Risk to trade

Financial-services



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2.2 million people

£190 billion to UK economy

11.8% economic output

£67 billion tax revenue

£72 billion trade surplus

>£100 billion foreign company

investment



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“A passport is a mechanism through which firms may exercise their right to provide services and their right

to establishment. With a passport, an entity’s authorisation to do business in one EU Member State

(and under certain directives in EEA states, too) is recognised by all other Member States as an

authorisation to business in their territory as well. As such, a passport obviates the need to obtain separate

authorisations from other Member States.” - Financial Conduct Authority



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Outbound: 336,421 passports 5,476 companies

Inbound: 23,532 passports 8,008 companies



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What is bi <go>?



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Economic impact

Commodity prices

Export income

Investment anxiety



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Redefine trading relationship

£7 billion exports

£1.7 billion trade surplus

Mercosur trade talks

TTIP negotiations stall



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Political turmoil

European elections

No Union

“Brexit is the most significant political risk the world has experienced since the Cuban Missile Crisis.” - Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President

EU disintegration

Popularist sentiment

U.S. elections

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Supreme Court decision: 1Q17

Article 50

Soft or hard Brexit

Access to single market and trade relationships

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Brexit & the U.S. Elections Santiago, Chile November 9, 2016 … · 2018-10-01 · Brexit & the...

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