Brexit: Where have we got to and where are we heading?
Anand Menon
www.UKandEU.ac.uk
@anandMenon1
Outline
• What’s going on?
• What might happen next?
• What will the impact be?
• Politics after Brexit
• Post-Brexit Britain
• Conclusion
What’s going on?
• Parliamentary pantomime
• Slow shifts
• No options removed from the table
What’s going on in the parties?
• Labour and ambiguity that worked in 2017
• Independent Group increasing pressure
• Tories and membership
• The pull of the tribe
Labour’s effective ambiguity
Source: Ford/Sobolewska
Source: Alan Wager/Survation/Chris Hanretty
Labour and Conservative target seats and Brexit vote, 2016
Labour and Conservative target seats and Brexit opinion, 2019
Source: Alan Wager/Survation/Chris Hanretty
Do you think the Labour party’s policy on Brexit is clear or unclear?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fairly/Completely Unclear and Confusing Fairly/Completely Clear Not sure
Source: YouGov/What UK Thinks/UK in a Changing Europe
The party and public view of the Withdrawal Agreement
Do you support or oppose Mrs May’s draft Brexit deal?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Tory Backbench MPs Tory Party Members Tory Voters
Support May's Deal Oppose May's Deal
Source: ESRC PMP Project/Hansard
Source: ESRC Party Members Project
What Next?
• The deal that won’t die
• May’s (possible plan)
• Playing chicken with parliament
• The votes to come
The alternatives for MPs
• Delay - merely stalling
• Similarly, a general election
• Three options:• No deal (next slide)
• Referendum
• May’s deal
Source: Bank of England
It’s the economy, stupid? Public opinion since the vote
Source: What UK Thinks
What will the impact be?
• Economic forecasts
• Aggregate terms we have a relatively clear picture
• Regional picture relatively stark
• Misleading notion of cliff edge
• ‘Slow puncture’?
• Matters in terms of narrative and the politics (cf debate over Nissan)
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
% o
f G
DP
Long-term economic impact of leaving the EU
GDP per head Fiscal impact
DEAL WTO
Worst-case scenario Worst-case scenarioBest-case scenario Best-case scenario
Source: UK in a Changing Europe
Share of GDP exposed to
Brexit
Politics after Brexit
• A new Brexit divide?
• Will it persist?
• The Independent Group
• Lots of plausible deniability about• For Labour, allow Tory Brexit and blame them for impact
• For Tories, show opposition to the deal now, so can attack later
• Lay groundwork for blaming EU
• Note also that behind the Brexit division the substantive divisions that exist
Source: NatCen
Social identity: the driver of Brexit
Source: British Election Study
Where to post-Brexit?
• Important to bear in mind where we’re coming from
• Proof of Brexit pudding
• Domestic impact and developments
• Plenty to fix, much of which nothing to do with the EU
Change in disposable household income in top 20 Leave and Remain voting areas
• Difference between highest Leave- and Remain-voting areas changed from £4,700 per year in 1997 to £11,100 in 2015
• Lambeth and Boston, the highest Leave-and Remain-voting areas respectively, went from the same level in 1997 to Lambeth being £3,600 ahead by 2015
Source: Matt Bevington/ONS
Source: Rob Ford/UK in a Changing Europe
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
London E England Scotland W Midlands N Ireland N East E Midlands Wales N West Yorks andHumber
S West S East
Gross value added per head growth, year on year, by region
2017 5yr av
Source: ONS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
Hansard Society Audit of Political Engagement
Satisfaction with system of governance
Feel can change the way UK is run
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Parliament emergingfrom Brexit in good light
Current generation ofpoliticians not up to the
job
British political systemneeds complete
overhaul
Brexit process hasshown politicians are intouch with the country
Current British politicalsystem enables my voice
to be heard
Written constitution?
%
ComRes poll, 14-15 January 2019
Agree Disagree Don't know
N=2,010
Conclusion
• Breaking political mould
• Was revolution necessary?
• The Brexit challenge
• Politics versus economics?