Brian Chemel Founder & CTO
DoE SSL R&D Workshop 28 January 2014
1. The Conventional Wisdom
(and where it’s not quite correct)
CostCLAIM: LEDs are getting so cheap, so quickly, that the revolution is inevitable. REALITY: Balance-of-system costs already dominate. Even if LED cost goes to zero, there’s a lot
of work to do in order to match the initial cost of incumbent technologies.
65%
35%
LEDs Everything Else
70%
30%800lm A19
24,000lm Highbay
Analysis: Sterne Agee, Digital LumensProduct photos: Cree, Digital Lumens
Material Cost Breakdown
EfficacyCLAIM: Ever-increasing LED efficacy will simply overwhelm incumbent technologies. REALITY: Over the past decade, we have already realized most of the possible efficacy gains.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Theoretical Limit for CW PC (~200lpW)
2005: 45lpW
2013: 164lpW
Source: DoE MYPP 2006-2013
Beware the Asymptotes…
Source: DoE MYPP 2013
$0
$1
$10
$100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260
LED
Pac
kage
Pric
e ($
/klm
)
Efficacy (lm/W)
Cool Target
Warm Target
2015
2020
2015
Mid 2009
End 2009
Mid 2009End 2009
2020
End 2010End 2010
20112011End 2011End 2011
2013 2013
End 2012End 2012
2010
Log
Scale
Socket SaturationCLAIM: Since LEDs “last forever”, we will see a surge of adoption followed by a contraction. REALITY: Seems unlikely, for a variety of reasons.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Light
ing R
even
ues
Jevons Paradox
In The Coal Question (1865), William Stanley Jevons maintained that technological efficiency gains
—specifically the more “economical” use of coal in
engines doing mechanical work—actually increased the overall consumption of coal, iron, and other resources, rather than
“saving” them, as many claimed. -Alcott, Blake (July 2005). "Jevons' paradox".
Ecological Economics 54
CLAIM: As lighting gets more efficient, we will use more of it. REALITY: To some extent this is true. But the digital, controllable nature of LEDs provides a
counterbalance.
Source: DoE SSL Energy Savings Report, 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Site E
lectr
icity C
onsum
ption (T
Wh)
Residential Commercial Industrial Outdoor Stationary Baseline
46% savings in 2030
19% savings in 2020
Bear
Base
Bull
Value Chain Collapse
• Upstream commoditization benefits downstream providers
• Access to channel and customers drives growth
• Features (not just photons) build market share
DevicesMaterials Fixtures Systems Services
CLAIM: As with most other semiconductor technology, value will accrue downstream. REALITY: Probably true. So what do we do about it?
PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL ©2013 DIGITAL LUMENS
The Third Wave
Novelty
Energy Efficiency
Features and
Applications
’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20 ’25 and beyond
Luminaires
Systems
Light-as-a-Service
LED
Mar
ket
Shar
e
LED price/performance plateaus as LED fixtures commoditize
LED price/performance skyrockets, unlocking general illumination market
(the future of lighting is digital)
2. Where we are headed
(intelligent lighting unlocks new markets)
Industrial
Hospitality
Retail
Parking
Office
Residential
Intelligent Lighting will be everywhere
Industrial
Intelligent Industrial Lighting
Intelligent Industrial Lighting
Energy Savings & Productivity
Intelligent Industrial Lightingto enhance
Office
Intelligent Office Lighting
Intelligent Office Lighting
Intelligent Office Lighting
Intelligent Office Lighting
Comfort & Productivity
Intelligent Office Lightingto enhance
Retail
Intelligent Retail Lighting
Intelligent Retail Lighting
Intelligent Retail Lighting
Intelligent Retail Lighting
Intelligent Retail Lighting
Intelligent Retail Lighting
Intelligent Retail Lighting
Sales & Merchandising
Intelligent Retail Lightingto enhance
Parking
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Intelligent Parking Garage Lighting
Safety & Revenue
Intelligent Parking Garage Lightingto enhance
Hospitality
Intelligent Hospitality Lighting
Intelligent Hospitality Lighting
Intelligent Hospitality Lighting
Intelligent Hospitality Lighting
Intelligent Hospitality Lighting
Intelligent Hospitality Lighting
Comfort & Brand
Intelligent Hospitality Lightingto enhance
Residential
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting
Intelligent Residential Lighting photo source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/mjshearer - Creative Commons license
Safety & Comfort
Intelligent Residential Lightingto enhance
PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL ©2013 DIGITAL LUMENS
What do all of these stories have in COMMON?
The future of lighting is... DIGITAL
NETWORKED
PERSONALIZED
ENERGY-AWARE
RESPONSIVE
3. How do we get there?
(R&D priorities for intelligent lighting)
Price & Performance
$0.1/klm
$1/klm
$10/klm
$100/klm
0lpW
50lpW
100lpW
150lpW
200lpW
250lpW
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Theoretical Efficacy Limit for CW PC (~200lpW)
Source: DoE MYPP 2006-2013
Full Spectrum Sources400
450
500
550
600
650
700
• Higher theoretical efficacy limit
• Photobiological optimization • People • Plants • Livestock
Source: NIST, Digital Lumens
GND
11V to 14V C3 C4
GND
GND GND
C14820 pFC18
4.7 µF
C11
R7
R9
1k
C12
C13
1000 pF
100 nH
1k
C170.047 µF
0.047 µF
C20
R545.3k
R210R
C10
1 F
R65.9k
C160.01 µF
C154.7 µF
Coilcraft, SER2013-362ML
R1019.6k R11
20k R121.5R
D4BAT54
GND
GNDGND
GND
GND
GND
R3
L1
Q1
Q2
Vishay, SI7892BDP
Vishay, SI7892BDP
75k
U1
GND
GNDGNDGND GND
GND
C1
GND
C2
GND GND
C6 C8
GND
330 nH
L2 Sanyo, 35SVPD47M
TDK, C3216X7RIE475TDK C3216X5RIC106
TDK C3216X5RIC106 TDK, C3216X7RIE475TDK, C3216X7RIE475
IR, 42CTQ030SPulse, PA1005.100NL
L3
R14 C19
NINI D1
11
12
2
4R110k
GND
GND
GND
TDK, C3216X7RIE475
Coilcraft, DO1813-331
470 pF
VIN
UVLO
REF
RT1
RT2
RES
SS
PGN
D
AGN
D
VCC
OUTA
OUTB
RAMP
CS
COMP
FB
Digital Power Topologies
• Controllability
• Size
• Reliability
• Efficiency
• Manufacturability
Deep System Integration• Personalization
• Making data actionable
• Closing the loop
Product photos: Apple, Nest Labs, Philips