1

THE

QUEENSFERRY

CROSSING

2

THIS TALK DEALS WITH ONLY

ONE ASPECT OF THE FRC

THE £1.5Bn COST

3

First – a wee bit history

4th April 2000

– Holyrood Building Debate –

A presentation was arranged prior to the debate

ONLY SIXTEEN MSPs TURNED UP

15th January 2009

- Forth Replacement Crossing Debate –

Scotland’s biggest ever project.

ONLY SEVENTEEN MSPs TURNED UP

So before we start let’s deal with the politicians

4

SCOTLAND’S RECENT

MAJOR PROJECTS RECORD

UK average motorway cost per

mile is £30m

M8 motorway missing link and

other work to cost £415m

M8 was £70m per mile

5

EDINBURGH TRAMS

Now over £1,000 million

The TIE Directors who made a mess of this resigned

They were awarded severance payment totalling

£406,635.

Originally 2003 cost was £375 million

6

SKYE BRIDGEcost £25m

now £93m

BORDERS

RAILWAYWas £155m now £295M

Edinburgh Infirmary

Cost £185m

Repayment £1,000+

Stirling-Kincardine

Railway line-just finished

needs to be rebuilt

Would you like to see some more

disasters for the taxpayer?

7

Wendy AlexanderSarah Boyack Iain Gray Nicol Stephen

Tavish Scott Jack McConnell Stewart Stevenson Keith Brown

Holyrood started business in 1999

How many Ministers of Transport

do you think have been appointed ?

Less than two years in office????

Alex S

“870 of the 1,041 orders have gone to Scottish companies” (84%)

Something’s missing Alex!!

“118 Subcontracts awarded to Scottish firms from the total of 155” (76%)

First Minister’s Questions 2 Feb 2012

Who is actually building the bridgeCONTRACT COMPANY NATIONALITY

CONSTRUCTIONCONSORTIUM

DRAGADOS SPANISH

HOCHTIEF GERMAN

AMERICAN BRIDGE USA

MORRISON CONSTRUCTION ENGLISH (Now)

9

CONTRACT COMPANY NATIONALITY

MAJORMANUFACTURERS

Zhenhua Heavy Industries CHINA

Tecade-Megusa SPAIN

Crist-Gdansk POLAND

Cleveland Bridge ENGLAND

Scottish contractor awards = £143 million (1%)

“870 of the 1,041 orders have gone to Scottish companies” (84%)

“118 Subcontracts awarded to Scottish firms from the total of 155” (76%)

BEFORE WESTART

10

3 TECHNICALASPECTS

Cable Stayed Bridge

11

Before we begin you should be you should be

aware of the difference between these structures

A SUSPENSION BRIDGE

A CABLE STAYED BRIDGE

A MULTIMODAL BRIDGE

SUSPENSION BRIDGE STRUCTURE

ORIGINAL FORTH ROAD BRIDGE

12

Cable Stayed Bridge

The New Forth Bridge

13

PROPOSED FRC STRUCTURE

WAS MULTIMODAL

14

LET’S START WITH A LOOK AT THE

GOVERNMENT’S COST OF THE 1965

FORTH ROAD BRIDGE

Their 1965 cost is £19.5m

Their 2005 inflation figure is £250

My 2016 inflation figure is £340m

Their data can be verified on their web

15

STRUCTURE COST COMPARISON

The old bridge is a

SUSPENSION BRIDGEThe new bridge is a CABLE

STAYED BRIDGE

Structural engineers will tell you that suspension bridges are

10% more expensive than cable stayed bridges

SO WHY IS THE NEW BRIDGE

5 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE

Made in

UK

Made in

China

16 miles of road

24 other bridges

8 miles of roadNo other bridges

16

NOWADAYS – Can a cable stayed bridge of

similar structure be built for around £340m

OF COURSE IT CAN - IT HAS BEEN DONE

AND by one of the main contractors

involved with Scotland’s FRC

Hong Kong’s Stone Cutters Bridge

Examine the locationOver one of the world’s busies sea routesLand prices 10 times the costLocated over a built up areaPlease examine the access roads...

And the cost??

£245m

18

THE COST FLUCTUATION FARCE

• THE COST REVISIONS ARE QUITE STAGGERING

• DESIGN CHANGES ARE MINIMAL

• ONE CHANGE ILLUSTRATES THE POINT

19

No Date Source Cost

2 Jan 05 Faber and Maunsell £500m

1 Jun 04 FETA £500m

3 Feb 07 Scottish Government £1,000+m

4 Dec 07 Scottish Government £2,790 to £3,630m

5 Jan 08 Scottish Government £3,250 to £4.220m

7 Mar 11 Scottish Government £1,470 to £1.620m

6 Sep 09 Scottish Government £1,700 to £2,300m

£4,220m

20SKYSCRAPERCITY.COM

Scotland to build theWorld's most expensive bridge

This pretty average 2km bridge

has a budget of up to £4.2 billion

This is a larger amount than even the entire

Fehmarn Belt project.

Scottish Finance Secretary, John Swinney,

announced … "Forth Replacement Crossing",

21

The FRC cost here are when the quoted price

was £4,220m

World Bridge Graphs

Let’s compare.

22

COST of VARIOUS TYPES TYPES OF WORLD BRIDGES -£M

The FRC was the world’s most expensive bridge.

£3

6

£8

4

£1

02

£1

06

£1

36

£1

46

£1

63

£1

98

£3

19

£3

57

£3

67

£3

92

£4

97

£4

98

£5

10

£5

61

£5

67

£5

76

£7

96

£8

54

£9

41

£1

,08

1

£1

,08

1

£4,050

£4,109 £4,220

£-

£500

£1,000

£1,500

£2,000

£2,500

£3,000

£3,500

£4,000

£4,500

23

36

84

10

2

10

6

14

6

16

3 31

9

36

7

39

2

49

7

56

1

56

7

57

6

79

6 94

1 1,0

81

4,220

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -£m

Again – the FRC wasby far the most costly

0240

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100103106109112115118121124127

COMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGES

The FRC is tiny: a mere 127th in world ranking..

25

£-

£200

£400

£600

£800

£1,000

£1,200

£1,400

£1,600

£1,800

WORLD AVERAGE COST PER METRE

£200K

The FRC COST PER METRE WAS £1,500

LET’S NOW EXAMINE THE COST PER METRE

WE’VE SEEN TOTAL COST

LET’S NOW CHECK THE COST PER LENGTH£1,563

26

US CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY DATA (Jan 2004)

Between $4k and $5K per square metre

The FRC cost- $60k per sq m.

COST OF (Cable Stayed) BRIDGES

PER SQUARE METRE

2009

THE WORLD’S THREE

MOST EXPENSIVE BRIDGES

27

1st - Scotland’s Multimodal FRC

2nd - Japan’s Pearl Bridge

3rd - Sweden/Denmark’s -Oresund Crossing

Cost over £4,000m+ world crossings

028

2nd -The Pearl Bridge Japan Opened in 1998 for

$4,300m

The world’s longest suspension bridge -3,910m

Tornadoes (180mph) – hinged-girder system

Fierce sea currents & deep water

Why is it so expensive

Earthquakes (8.5 Richter scale) –TMD pendulumstuned mass damper

3rd - THE ORESUND CROSSING

29

WORLD’S LARGEST

MULTIMODAL CROSSING

An Island

A Bridge

and

A Tunnel

30

Bridge

Tunnel

DENMARK SWEDEN

Island

SATELLITE VIEW

The Oresund Project

Let’s build it in Fife!!!!!

31

A 4 km Artificial Island

32

A 4 km multimodal tunnel

Road &

Rail

Tunnel

4050 metres

33

A 8 km multimodal bridge

Road

& Rail Bridge 8km long

34

Oresund Crossing cost £4,100m *

Oresund Project 8 times the size of the FRC

Built in 5 ½ years; and the FRC???

5 ½ years

* Transport Scotland data says £4,400m

Forth Crossing cost £4,220m

35

Professor John Kay.

Do you know this man?

Chosen Financial Adviser

to the

SCOTTISH

GOVERNMENT.

Public lecture – Sept 2007 on

the FRC

“Expressed astonishment”

“..more than 4 times the final cost of

the Oresund bridge”

36

THE NEW

MERSEY GATEWAY BRIDGE

England’s MULTI-MODAL Comparison

COMPLETION 2016

STRUCTURE MULTI-MODAL

TYPE CABLE STAYED

LENGTH 2.3 Km

TOWERS 3

LANES 6

COST UNDER £600 million

37

The OccasionProject DirectorSteve NicholsonFeb. 27th, 2012

The Statement“ Dropping the double deck and other measures will save

..£30m

38

The OccasionFinance Secretary

John SwinneyScottish Parliament

Dec. 19th, 2007

The Statement“The tram section removed..”“A revised saving will be…”

..£580m

39

Dec 2009 cost is now ± £1,600m

Let’s compare it with

another UK crossing

THE SEVERN BRIDGE

AN EXCELLENT COMPARISON

Both UK projects

Similar environments

Contemporary

Cable Stayed Structures

40

041

Second Severn Crossing FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING

“MADE IN CHINA”“MADE IN UK”

Six+hs Lanes Four+hs

5,200 m Length 2,700

18.5 km Roads 4.5 km

4 years Build time 5.5 years

£810 m Cost ± £1,500*Transport Scotland have it at £890m

Hard

Shoulder

FRC IS HALF THE SIZE & TWICE THE PRICE

42

Three ‘ICONIC’ world bridges.

Is the FRC really so expensive?

Greece -Rio Antirio Bridge

WORLD’S MOST

DIFFICULT BRIDGE

TO BUILD

44

2,880 Metres Cable Stayed

No bedrock

64 metre deep Sea crossing

Seismic & Tsunami

45

65 metres

SEA DEPTH

200 STEEL PIPES2 METRE IN DIAMETER30 METRE IN LENGTH

BURIED IN THE SEA BED46

800 pipes –200 per pier - 2m diameter – 25/30 m long

47

Four gigantic CAISSONS

installed over the pipes

48

049

Length

m

Lanes Towers Build

Time

Cost

2016

Rio Antirio 2880 6 4 6.0 £576m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £1,600m

Rio Antirio

Opened in 2004

at a cost of

€630M

WORLD’S MOST

DIFFICULT BRIDGE

WORLD’S

HIGHEST BRIDGE

MILLAU

VIADUCTFrance

Opened in 2004

€350m

Length

m

Lanes Towers Build

Time

Cost

2016

Millau 2460 4 7 3 £400m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £1,600m

051

VASCO de

GAMA

Opened in 1998

at a cost of

$1000m

Length

m

Lanes Towers Build

Time

Cost

2016Vasco de

Gama17200 6 2 1.5 £941m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £1,600m

EUROPE’S

LONGEST BRIDGE

52

THE TUNNEL OPTION

The best till last!!

If YOUR credibility has been stretched

THE FINAL DATA IS

(ALMOST) UNBELIEVABLE

worst

COULD IT BE

SOMEONE DIDN’T

WANT A TUNNEL?

THEIR LIST IN FAVOUR OF A TUNNEL

1. 5km more roadway

3. 4 million tonnes of spoil

4. Multi-modal option needs another tunnel

5. Prohibited goods (like whisky)

8. More expensive

7. No pedestrians or cyclists

6. Would take 7.5 years

2. Special Protection Areas

GOVERMENT LIST AGAINST A TUNNEL

An underground tunnel has less environmental impact.

The bridge is 2.7km the tunnel is 8km –why more

The Eurotunnel used their spoil to prevent erosion.

The tram link was dropped – simply not valid.

London’s M25 tunnel escort goods- we still have a bridge

How come - the 31 mile Channel Tunnel was built in 6 years

Tourists would prefer the bridge stupid

LET’S EXAMINE THIS CLAIM IN DETAIL……..

The best means available to assess this cost is again by comparison

You are about to see why!!!!

Gotthard Base Tunnel

A single comparison here will suffice

We’ll use the world’s longest tunnel

World's longest tunnel

Its very deep too!!!

ROUTE LENGTH 58 km+

Additional shafts 152 km

Construction Time 17 Years

Construction Team 2,600

4 Giant borers used

simultaneously

Tunnel lining

Cement cladding

MAIN SHAFT

58 kM

AUXILIARY SHAFTS

152 kM

Let’s build it across the Forth for comparison

Oor wee tunnel

Now the Swiss one

TOTAL COST AS OF NOV 2010

£ 6,300m

Now the Forth’s Bored Tunnel OptionFETA commissioned

this study inJAN 2005

66

This detailed 80 page report was commission to examine FRC options

FORTH ESTUARY TRANSPORT AUTHORITYSecond Forth Road Crossing Consolidated report

Jan 2005 FABER MAUNSELL

Page 23

..Bored Tunnel cost..

£598M

Why did FETA remove this document from their web site???

SCALE MODELS

Forth

tunnel 8km

You won’t believe it!!!

Cost £6,300m

70

The OccasionFinance Secretary

John SwinneyScottish Parliament

Dec. 19th, 2007

The Statement“I have the cost estimates..” “A bored tunnel would cost.”.

..£6,600m

71

BACK TO HOLLYROOD

I'm still awaiting an answer to the following simple question

Quote to me “.. Remember we are just laymen”

Not one MSP has questioned these outrageous costs

Labour started this cost fiasco SNP continued

AUDIT SCOTLAND has never investigated these costs

“Please provide a list of more

expensive comparable bridges”

YOUJUDGE

72

“Facts do not cease to exist

because they are ignored.”

Aldous Huxley

73

Thank

you