Niger

First 4 BFPs nearing completion

Niger

6 remaining BFPs started in 2008

Broad review of basins

• Development context

– Overall situation

• Water availability / use

• Water productivity

• Intervention and impact analysis

– Intervention: what ‘they can do’

– Impact: what ‘you’ can do

• Knowledge management

– Not much to show at this stage

Background development

context

Agriculture vs GNI

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)

Gro

ss N

ational In

com

e ($/c

apita)

• The poorest tend to rely on agriculture

Size of bubble

proportional to rural

population

World Bank, 2007

Essential to understand relative function of agricultureA

gri

cultur e

contr

ibution to g

row

th (%

)

World Bank, 2007

% Rural poor

% Contribution of agriculture to GDP

volta

Sao

Francisco

Karkheh Mekong

Water availability

Multiple water use reflects hydrology

Andean0.0

0.5

1.0

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

Rain / ETpot

ET / E

T pot

Capacity limit

Suppy limit

Ganges

Mekong

Sao Francisco

Volta

Yellow River

NileLimpopo

IndusKarkeh

Water use supports varied livelihoods

Andean0.0

0.5

1.0

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

Rain / ETpot

ET / E

T pot

Capacity limit

Suppy limit

Ganges

Mekong

Sao Francisco

Volta

Yellow River

NileLimpopo

IndusKarkeh

Fish

Livestock

Crops

Irrigation

M ekong

1,19 5 bcm

Ganges

1,167 bcm

K a r k h e h

2 1 , 4 0 2 mc m

Irrigation ET

Yellow

384 bcm

Rainfed cropsLimpopo

229 bcm

Grassland ET

Indus

865 bcm

Net runoff

Nile

2,042 bcm

S a o F r a n c i s c o

6 2 2 b c m

Hydrology matters to livelihoods

David Blake

Songkhram Wet Songkhram Dry

Nile

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Flow,

Calculated

Observed

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evaporation or Rainfall (m) Rainfall

ETo

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evaporation or Rainfall (m) Rainfall

ETo

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evaporation or Rainfall (m) Rainfall

ETo

From Kirby et al., W-Use

Rainfed ag. by far the

biggest user

Devaraj de Condappa

Volta

Ganges

From Kirby et al., W-Use

accounts

But irrigation a major

user in Asia

Global Land cover classes – 2000 (UNEP)Grassland and rainfed dominate area

Irrigation (IWMI)But in Asia, irrigation drives up population density

Population density (persons per km2) – (CIESIN -2000)

Indus

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Water use (mcm)

Basin water use and population

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Yellow

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Water use (mcm)

Mekong

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

Water use (mcm)

Ganges

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Water use (mcm)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

(Preliminary analysis)

Relative values better than absolutes

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Limpopo

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Water use (mcm)

Volta

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Water use (mcm)

Sao Francisco

20 15 10 5 0

population (millions)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Water use (mcm)

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Woodland +

Grass

Irrigated

Rainfed

Nile

200 150 100 50 0

population (millions)

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Water use (mcm)

Water productivity

Basic concept: Need Water productivity to

respond faster than demand

crisis

response

WP

time

Demand

line

In some places, water productivity is responding to demand

Mac Kirby, 2007

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Wate

r pro

ductivity, kg/m

3R

ice

VN, Mekong Delta

Vietnam

VN Central

Highlands

Laos

CambodiaNE Thailand

Volta

Other basins, response low or patchy

Potential= 1-2 kg/m3

IRD, 2007

Volta

Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water

consumed] much lower than potential

Potential= 1-2 kg/m3

IRD, 2007

Other crops

• Sugar and maize

• Thailand high

• Generally increasing

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Maiz

e y

ield

, to

n/h

a

Laos

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

Vietnam Centralhighlands

Vietnam MekongRiver Delta

0

20

40

60

80

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Sugarc

ane y

ield

, to

n/h

a Laos

Thailand

Cambodia

Vietnam

Vietnam Central

highlands

Vietnam Mekong

River Delta

Full range of WPr may include

• Irrigated crops

• Rainfed

• Livestock

• Fisheries

– Capture

– Aquaculture

…most systems highly mixed

Water agriculture and

poverty

Measurable livelihood impacts

Water availability seems less influential than

gain per volume used (water productivity)

GNI vs Water

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Water availability (m3/cap)

GN

I ($

/cap P

PP

)

Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP

Per capita income vs.

water availability

World Bank, 2007

São Francisco: Drought is one poverty factor…of many

Marcello Torres

et al., 2008

Drought

Poor

education

Access to

credit

Karkheh, Iran: Farmers not the poorest

politics controls

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

Une

mploy

ed

Man

ager

Clerk

Trad

eper

son

Farm

er

Prod

uctio

n wor

ker

Uns

kille

d wor

ker

KB

Cou

ntry

Poverty lines from household

income and expenditure data

Karkheh BFP team

Syngenta Science Day 2009

.. Mekong What people do can affect (shared) assets

Complex but understandable

Dam developmentChanging land use, shifting cultivation,sustainability, sedimentation

Seasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity

Fish & environmental impacts of upstream Salinisation, water

quality, highly developed

Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008

Interventions

Global -to local

GLOBALwater and food systems considered separately

both impact on livelihoods

Local ScaleLocal systems considered individually

Local impact not referenced to broader systems

Basin scaleSystems interact through

(Unspecified) transfers

Niger

Opportunities or pressures vary from basin to basin

Markets

Population growth

Climate change

Need for ecosystem

services

Remember development

trajectory

Impact pathway and

Knowledge management

• All impact pathways done

– All honest efforts

• Pathway depends on basin scale,

organization, existing network makers,

etc..

• Getting better engagement with CPWF

– Some more work needed with Topics

Agenda