TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING

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Agenda - Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)

The motivation for roadmapping and roadmaps – the ”Why?” Case Story: Gatehouse and roadmapping the SDR markets and

technologies The roadmapping process – the ”How?” Fast track roadmap – the ”What’s next?”

The road is not the map!!

I the late 15.th century the cartographs Gerard Mercator and Abraham Ortelius made a number of maps witha number of maps with California – correctly –depicted as a peninsula.

In 1602, Sebastian Vizcaino sailed up the California coastsailed up the California coast, and Father Antonio de la Ascension wrote a journal of the voyage. Claiming that California was separatedCalifornia was separated from the American continent by the “Mediterranean Sea of California.”

For more than 100 years For more than 100 years California was depicted on maps as an island even long after Father Kino established its penisularity about 1705its penisularity about 1705

Finally in 1747, Ferdinand VII of Spain issued a royal edict declaring California as part of the mainland

Kort af Francisco de Ulloa der besejlede bugten udfor Californien i 1539

the mainland

Ask yourself: How precise are your maps?

GPS metaphor

Retrospective

Prospective

A roadmap is a forward directed and qualified tool for supporting decision making – like a GPS for a driver

More than one route are found as the context and preconditions change A roadmap could be the best qualified estimate on a safe or quick route to your A roadmap could be the best qualified estimate on a safe or quick route to your

destination

Ask yourself: Where are you looking for directions and guidance? Are these sources trustworthy?

“Roadmapping” is the process that pp g pproduces a number of interrelated roadmaps which can be used in the ongoing making and communication of decisions on technology, business and strategy…

The occasion…

The current crisis calls for more secure choices - saying “no” to the right things at the right time...

The choice of technologies are no- The choice of technologies are nomore a metier for experts alone –it’s coordinated with business and organizational matters...

A huge democratization of A huge democratization of “Technology roadmapping” is going on – moving from an expert driven innovation to a more open employee driven model of innovation...

Getting business value from our innovation processes – superior p pknowledge and excellent skills are only half way there...

Complicated matter in knowledge intensive organizationsintensive organizations

Conclusions – just to map out where we are goingConclusions just to map out where we are going…. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a mature process and

supported by numerous tools and methods

TRM can give you tremendous insight AND outlook – both don’t go for both at the same time

Roadmapping is a continuous process the roadmaps are the Roadmapping is a continuous process – the roadmaps are the outcome or artifacts from this process

The roadmaps are hypothesis on the future markets, their d d t h l ti d ibilitidemands, technology options and possibilities – you can use them to reduce risk and combine them with scenarios to give these hypothesis dynamics and “life”

Use it to identify strategies and necessary activities

Roadmaps are superb tools for internal and external communicationcommunication

Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts

A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward together as a group or organization

You can do it – in fact you are already doing it….

Another roadmap most of us know…

From Wikipedia

Source: Statusrapport 2005 EPJ-Observatoriet

NOWHERENOWHERETime Perspective

A view can never be from nowhere. It will always be from a now and a here

The anagram on “nowhere” / "now, here" / “Erewhon” with reference to Samuel Butler (1835-1902) and Gilles Deleuze (1925-1995)

Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)

The beginning:[place]: Motorola[time]: Late 70’s Technology Roadmapping – the process of producing roadmaps – where introduced

in Motorola in the late 70’s

Through the 80’s the roadmapping process are integrated tightly as one of Motorola's g pp g p g g ymost important control- and communication tools – both internally but just as much externally in relation to suppliers and markets/costumers

Motorola formulated the goals with their roadmaps:g p1. Establish a cooperation tool which both development dept. and marketing

could use2. Be able to more qualified assumptions on future developments in technologies

or markets3. Be able to coordinate across a large and diverse organization and increase

consistency4. Identify ”gaps” – holes in the collective knowledge / product series / markets –

more rapidly and more effectivelyp y y5. To time and synchronize efforts towards new technologies and new markets

”A Roadmap is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the

Ask yourself: How well does these goals from Motorola fit your own?

collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field”, Brian Galvin CEO Motorola

Creativity

Sciencefiction

Strategy, business development, technology assesment

Brainstorming

Essays /Gaming

technology assesment, market segmentationand validation….

Scenariowriting

Essays / foresights Trend

analysis

Technologicalwriting TechnologicalSubstitution

modelBackcasting

StakeholderBibliometric

DelphiImpact

matrix / SWOTWorkshops

Technologyassessment

mappinganalysis

Panels / advisory boards

Conferences

WorkshopsGAP

analysis

Expertise Interactionalignment

”A Roadmap for the Robotic and Human Exploration of Mars”, NASA 2004

A roadmap we may know…

http://www.isip.nhs.uk/roadmap/

SDR Hype Cycle

MM3xR

SCA ver 2.2Remaining technology limitations

PUSHING

JTRS Launch

limitations- AD/DA conversion-Power consumption- Linear amplification

PUSHING TECHNOLOGY

ENVELOPE

SIB

ILIT

Y

JTRS

- Broadband antennas- SW reload time

VIS

SpeakEasy Re-organisation andRe-targeting

Coalition waveform

implementation

DSPs, FPGAs

Euro-SDR Proto ?p

TechnologyTrigger

Peak of InflatedExpectations

Through ofDissillusionment

Slope ofEnlightenment

Plateau ofProductivity

Early 1990’s 2000 2005 2010 2015

MATURITY

gg p g y

SDR Emerging Technology Roadmap

Reference : Dr. Klaus Moessner, CCSR, University of Surrey, UK

Ask yourself: How many roadmaps do you use or produce daily?

Case: Gatehouse

Technology Roadmapping of Software Defined Radio (SDR)

About GatehouseAbout Gatehouse Software that connects GateHouse was founded in 1992 by the current

CEO Michael Bondo Andersen During the last

Based on extensive experience within satellite communications GateHouse has developed an Inmarsat BGAN Waveform for SDRCEO, Michael Bondo Andersen. During the last

decade GateHouse has risen to become a well-know international player in the software development market for communication systems Contributory to this success are the

Inmarsat BGAN Waveform for SDR• The waveform is SCA compliant and has all the

advantages from the BGAN system:• Global coverage• High data rate transfer (up to 492 kbit/s)• L-Bandsystems. Contributory to this success are the

BGAN Protocol Stack, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and the numerous consultancy service contracts for the Danish Army

• For land, maritime and aeronautical use

Army. Now GateHouse employs about 80 highly

skilled M.Sc. in engineering, business developers, sales and marketing specialists. Their geniuses are deployed in the solutions weTheir geniuses are deployed in the solutions we make for our customers translating their requirements into "software that connects".

Today GateHouse operates within 5 business areas sharing the same dedication to suplyareas sharing the same dedication to suplymission critical solutions characterised by reliability and interoperability.

The business areas are:Satellite CommunicationsTracking, monitoring and control (TrMC)Coastal SurveillanceDefenceSoftware Defined Radio (SDR)

The purpose of Technology Roadmapping at Gatehouse

Artefacts

Scope lse af SDR teknolo

Artefacts

Roadmap for dardisation_v13052

mindmap Markeder roadmap ålgrupper iteration

The value of TRM in the Gatehouse caseThe value of TRM in the Gatehouse case

T h l di A l f h i I t l i ti f• Technology readiness within 2-3 years

• Standardization important and imminent

• A lot of research going on

• Standardization is not –definitely – not a driver

• Internal communication of SDR as an emerging technology and consolidation of strategic direction

• A lot of new skills required internally

• No mainstream near-market implementa-tions ready

• Different US and

• Prioritization of 2 market segments

• Identification of a number of “critical levels” for SDR roll-

tDifferent US and European approach

• SDR sets software development skills of most importance and is

out• Identification and mapping

of research clusters to follow

• Validation of software asmost importance and is a key parameter in the competitive market space

• Validation of software as key competence and hereof a dramatic change in the competitive landscape

AssumptionsBefore

KnowledgeNow

Valueoptained

Organizing and managing the roadmapping process

Cybernetics – the organization seen as a body or organism

[SENSE]Size of organization?Is there a 6th sense? [S S ]

Acquisition and processing of information

Is there a 6 sense?

[INTERPRETATION][REACT]Develop common

understanding through shared

beliefs

[REACT]

Strategic adaption and specific tactical

actions beliefs

The ability to share knowledge is key!

Absorptive capacity

As suggested by professor Harry Boer from CIP (AAU), Denmark

The TRM framework

Adapted from: ”Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008Ask yourself: Can you point out where to seek the 5 information types in your organization?

A roadmap as a strategic lens on the world

Ask yourself: What “lenses” provides you with outlook or perspectives on the surrounding world? Are they aligned? Are they shared?

What can Roadmaps do for you?

Give one – or more likely: more – well supported hypothesis on the future markets, their demands, options and possibilities – hereby reducing risk

Identify the “hard” and “soft” facts necessary to capture future benefits and Identify the hard and soft facts necessary to capture future benefits and possibilities

Identify strategies and activities from where companies and industries can get access to new sources of knowledge eg strategic partnerships commonaccess to new sources of knowledge – eg. strategic partnerships, common R&D areas

Roadmaps are superb tools in the internal and external communication: they invite to dialog and a roadmap is always stronger if it is challenged

Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts: don’t invest in new technologies if the roadmap for a targeted market doesn’t say that adoption g p g y phere is ready

A roadmap can create a alignment of knowledge which are crucial if we are to move forward after a common layout / architecture / business plan etcmove forward after a common layout / architecture / business plan etc.

Ask yourself: What would you like roadmapping to provide you? Where would it provide you with the most value?

“How” - The Roadmapping Process

Roadmapping is a learning process

Identified risk

edic

tion

urity

of p

r

”Wild guesses” with no or poor documentation

Informed estimates Reliable estimates

Inse

cu documentation

Identified risk

TimeIncreasing leaning valueIncreasing leaning value

Identified risk

Increasing leaning valueIncreasing leaning value

Ask yourself: How do you identify and eliminate risks?

5 main topics in roadmapping

Experience• Prior experience

and knowledge in the area must be

t d

Facts!• Not all knowledge

or opinions are based on facts

Creativity• It’s about shaping

a qualified scenario of the f t i

Interaction• It’s a coope-

ration between multiple

Documentation• To communicate

it must be visualized

present and represented

• This may challenge the documentation

based on facts but if they are: find it!

• If not: find the people able to

ti l t it

future in some local areas

• It demands that we engage in thinking out-of-

pindividuals and groups –perhaps even other

i ti

• To support the collaboration of stakeholders

documentation and our organization

articulate it thinking out ofthe-box organizations

• This may challenge our culture

Ask yourself: Who or what would you use in your organization to cover each topic?

Gatehouse case revisited: activities and structure

Adopted from: “T-Plan: the fast start to Technology RoadmappingPlanning your route to success”

The roadmapping process seen iterative

The process begins with a very broad scope

Narrowing in short iterations Early iterations are short Early iterations are short

(hours/days) Later Iterations are longer

(weeks) and perhaps even in parallelparallel

Figure adopted from Phaal & Müller: ”An architectural framework for roadmapping” 2008

Ask yourself: How good are you to run and facilitate processes?

Outlined roadmap process per iterationOutlined roadmap process per iteration

As proposed in Phaal & Müller: ”An architectural framework for roadmapping” 2008

Ask yourself: Where would you think your process would be the most productive – ideation, divergence, convergence, synthesis?

The TRM framework

Adapted from ”Technological Forecasting & Social Change” Phaal & Muller 2007Ask yourself: Which Push / Pull-effects are the strongest in your context?

The TRM framework

The Scenarios – the stories – the multiple instantiations of the roadmap The important disruptive elements

Ask yourself: In your case - which scenario would be the most powerful or effective as a communication vehicle?

Learning points for the process:

Appoint a facilitator among the group

Make a preliminary roadmap for the first workshop

Agree on the time span for the roadmap• Keep the alignment of the time span for

as long as you can

workshop• Give the group a starting point – even

though you know it’s inaccurate and with errors

• Use 3 party roadmaps (ask Mr Google

Agree on the time span for the roadmapping process

• For each iteration• For the whole process until first delivery• Use 3. party roadmaps (ask Mr. Google

but not as only source)

Control your abstractionsSeek a limited number of abstraction

For the whole process until first delivery (fx a report to a project review or kick-off)

Classify and group input in themes all the time• Seek a limited number of abstraction

levels• Keep them well-balanced: don’t over-

expose the bottom ones just because you can

time• Again: control the abstractions

Seek and qualify with “Facts and Figures”E th h th t di t h thyou can…

• Keep it simple – very simple – in the first 2 iterations

• Keep the abstraction levels in alignment for the first 2 iterations

• Even though they contradict each other• Name your sources

Maintain and keep the roadmap up-to-for the first 2 iterations date

Ask yourself: The last time you facilitated a process - how did you do that? Are there any learning points from that you need to take into consideration?

People | Organization

Critical factors for a successful TRMPeople | Organization

The right team over time

The right team over time

Processes

The right mix of competencies

The right mix of competencies

Mature organization

Mature organization

Sources for data

organizationorganization

Sources for dataand information

Maintain momentum

Maintain momentum

Valid sources

Valid sources

The right data

The right data

Maintaining the right level of abstraction

Maintaining the right level of abstraction

Managenble processes for initiating, developing, reviewing and integrating

the TRM

Managenble processes for initiating, developing, reviewing and integrating

the TRM

datadata

Enough -but not to much...

Enough -but not to much... the TRMthe TRMmuch...much...

Conclusions – revisitedConclusions revisited Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a mature process and

supported by numerous tools and methods

TRM can give you tremendous insight AND outlook – both don’t go for both at the same time

Roadmapping is a continuous process the roadmaps are the Roadmapping is a continuous process – the roadmaps are the outcome or artifacts from this process

The roadmaps are hypothesis on the future markets, their d d t h l ti d ibilitidemands, technology options and possibilities – you can use them to reduce risk and combine them with scenarios to give these hypothesis dynamics and “life”

Use it to identify strategies and necessary activities

Roadmaps are superb tools for internal and external communicationcommunication

Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts

A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward together as a group or organization

You can do it – in fact you are already doing it….

What´s next?

A suggested next step: fast track roadmapping

What do tyou put

here?

Fast track roadmappingFast track roadmapping

1. Sell the concept of TRM roadmapping• Get the key stakeholders identified and involvedGet the key stakeholders identified and involved• Set the overall scope for the TRM process

2. Initiating the TRM process – how to get started?S t th TRM t

Preliminary activities

• Set the TRM process core-team• Identify supporting resource-members

3. Define scope of the TRM process and roadmapp p p• Identify largest technology areas• Identify technology alternatives• Develop roadmaps

D l t ti iti4. Integrate or adopt TRM into existing processes

• Align / adopt to whatever development or analysis process in-house

Development activities

y p• Make TRM communication package• Use resource-members as ambassadors

5 Maintain the TRM process on an everyday basis5. Maintain the TRM-process on an everyday basis• Review and validate• Find external review partners (costumers,

suppliers, etc.)

Follow-up / review activities

A f t t k TRM ith f t f kA-fast-track TRM process – with reference to framework

Ask yourself: Won’t that guy ever stop??? Adapted from: ”Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008

Perspectives on Roadmapping

Roadmapping as a platform for Open Innovation?

Common activities

Company specific activities

Thank you…

Bent Bilstrup | 72201614 | bent.bilstrup@teknologisk.dk

Further reading

“An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy”, Robert Phaal, GerritMuller (Technological Forecasting & Social Change (2008)g ( )

”Establish a creative environment for roadmapping of i-system methodology”, Tieju MA, Andrzej P. WIERZBICKI, Yoshiteru NAKAMORI

”Evolution of roadmapping at Motorola”, Richey, pp g , y,James M., Grinnel, Mary (Research | TechnologyManagement, march-april 2004)

“Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping”, R Phaal, CJP Farrukh and DR Probert

“Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping” Marie L. Garcia & Olin H. Bray