Clarify Decisions. Manage Risk.
The State-Of-The-Art In Probabilistic Risk Analysis And Decision Strategy For Complex Long-Term Projects
• Createsasingleintegratedmodelthatsimulatesallrelationshipsandrisksourcesovertheprojectlifespan
• Identifies,quantifiesandanalyzesalluncertaintiesandconsequencesaffectingprojectsuccessorfailure
• Incorporatesriskassessmentintothefinancialdecisionprocess
• Representsuncertaintyinstochasticprocesses,parametersandfutureoruncertaineventsexplicitly
• Simulatesuncertaintyin“soft”elementssuchapoliticalactions,publicacceptance,stakeholderreactionsandregulatoryoutcomes
• Assesseslikelihoodofoccurrenceandprobableconsequences
• Indicatesinterdependenciesautomatically
• Facilitatesthereuseandsharingofmodelingacrossanorganization
• Identifiesanddevelopsappropriateprioritizationandmitigationstrategies
• Providesaneasilyunderstoodcommunicationtoolforgainingfinancial,regulatory,politicalandpublicsupport
• Instantlyresponsivetohigh-level“whatif”questions
• Linksallrelatedfindingsanddocumentsinsupportanddefenseofdecisions
• Movesfromariskassessmenttoaprojectmanagementtoolastheprojectmovespastthedecisionprocessintoprojectimplementation
• Resultsinsignificantprojectcostsavings
PredicusLLC22500SE64thPlaceSuite240Issaquah,WA98027-8111USA
Telephone:+12063255490Email:[email protected]:www.predicusconsulting.com
©2011PredicusLLC Allrightsreserved
Bringing Clarity To
Decision-Making
For Complex,
High-Risk Projects
Risk-Informed Decision-Making Thrives On Clear, Defensible Information That Is Easily Communicated
Predicusdeliversacomprehensiveunderstandingofrisk,freeofbiasandnaïveté.Modelingofprobableoutcomesisquantitative,holisticanddetailedandquicklyresponsivetoinputchangesinrealtime.Combiningindustryandriskanalysisexpertisewithsuperiortools,ourprocessresultsinsignificanttimeandcostsavingsforourclients.
Revealingcomprehensiveriskassessmentandmitigationstrategieswithunrivaledclarity,Predicuselicitation,modelingandsimulationbecomeindispensabletomanagement—frominitialinvestmentdecisionsupporttothemanagementofcomplexprojectsovertheirentirelifespan.
Project Decisions Are Getting Tougher With Increased Complexity And Multiplied Uncertainties
Decisionsregardingcapitalinvestmentinlarge,long-termprojectscanbeveryriskyduetobroaduncertaintiesthatextendfarbeyondtheobviousissues.Asstrategicdecisionsupportspecialists,Predicusguidesastate-of-the-artprobabilisticriskanalysisprocessthatuniquelyenhancesexecutive-leveldecision-making.
Setting the standard for contemporary due diligencePredicusfacilitatesanarigorousapproachtomanageuncertaintyandriskinexecutive-leveldecision-makingandprojectmanagement.GoingfarbeyondtraditionalIRRandNPVanalysis,ourprocessnotonlyrevealsbutalsoquantifiesthefullconsequencesofinvestmentandmanagementdecisions.
Moving decision support beyond spreadsheets and bias The Predicus Process
Step 1: Definition
• Defineprojectgoalsthroughdialoguewithclient’sprojectteam
• Definesuccessfulprojectoutcomesandmeasuresofsuccess
• Assessavailabilityofrelevantandcurrentdata
• AssemblePredicusteamexpertise—purpose-builtforthespecificproject
Step 2: Vision
• ConductaSuccessPrecedenceDiagram(SPD)workshopledbythePredicusteamtodeveloptheproject’sbasiclogicsequence
• Confirmvisionofsuccessfuloutcomesincollaborationwithclientpersonnel
Step 3: Elicitation
• CreatetheinitialshelloftheholisticprojectmodelbasedonSPDinput
• MapareasoffocusforPredicusexpertelicitationprocess
• Conductelicitationworkshopsincollaborationwithclientpersonnelinatechnical,financialandpoliticalriskdiscoveryprocess
Step 4: Modeling
• Developadynamicgraphicalprojectmodelbaseduponelicitationinputandriskevaluations
• Assessprobabilityofsuccessforallprojectscenariosandoptions
• Determinepotentialbenefitsofreducinguncertaintiesthatimpactkeyprojectobjectives
Step 5: Simulation
• Presentsimulationstoclientmanagement—holisticallyandmodularly
• Conductinteractivemodelrefinementsincollaborationwithmanagement
• Presentthepotentialbenefitsofreducingspecificuncertainties
• Evaluateandadjustmitigationstrategies
The Predicus Mission
Bringexperiencedexecutivesandtechnicalspecialiststogetherwithstate-of-the-artsimulationtechnologytoclarifythemosteffectivedecisionpathformanagementoflarge,long-termprojectsthatarecomplicatedbysignificantuncertaintiesandcomplexfinancingrequirements.
Theprobabilityandimpactofcritical“softevents”areoftenoverlookedorinadequatelyassessed,particularlywhenriskperspectivesareevaluatedwithinthecomplexitiesandconfinesofaspreadsheet.Furtherchallengingisthefactthatmostengineers,estimators,developersandentrepreneursareeithertoooptimisticorreluctanttoadmittheiruncertainties.
Bringing new and invaluable insights into project risk and risk mitigationWhilesomeprobabilitiesarederivedfromstatistics,trulyeffectivedecisionstrategiesincludeabroaderrangeofissuesthatarequantifiedandtemperedbyunbiasedexpertopinion.Predicussimulatestheimpactofallformsofrisk,identifiesmitigationstrategies,anddeliversthedecision-makingframeworkthatsupportsmanagementovertheentireprojectlifecycle.