Broadband 2005 - Current Status

Broadband 2005 - Current Status & Future Trends

Broadband 2005Current Status & Future Trends

3G and Beyond

Jannie van Zyl

1st November 2005


Agenda

• Vodacom Current Status GPRS

EDGE

UMTS

• Wireless Network Trends HSDPA / HSUPA

WiMax

OFDM

UMA / Mesh Networks


Where are we Today?


No Ringtones or SMSNo Ringtones or SMS

First Mobile Phone ?


1924 1952

First Mobile Car Phone ?


1973

First Portable Mobile Phone ?


New Terminal Capabilities

Embedded HDD

2GB <<< 50GB

Memory Card

128MB <<< 16GB

Embedded Flash

6MB <<< 128MB

Mobile Storage Revolution New Ways of Displaying Content

Multiplicity of Local Connectivity

+ +

• 20 GByte is enough for your entire music collection + your entire photo album + 20hrs of home movies + 8 hours of DVD quality movies + a bevy of games

http://www.imobile.com.au/images/cover_story/mar03/CeBIT_Sharp-3D_LCD.jpg


New Form Factors

2007?


Where are we Today?

Current South African Landscape


Vodacom Coverage > 16M Subscribers

• 2G – GPRS > 6300 Base Stations

> 70% Land Area Coverage

> 97.5% Population Coverage

> 99.7% Availability

• 2G – EDGE > 37% Land Area Coverage

> 32% Population Coverage

• 3G – WCDMA ~1500 Node B’s (Base

Stations)

> 99.3% Availability


EDGE Coverage Aug 2005


3G Coverage


Vodacom 3G Coverage

• Major Metros

• Holiday Areas

• All major airports

• Major hotels, conference venues and business centers

• Sites with high GPRS usage

• Coverage for key business partners

• Seamless Integration with 2G

• Target through-put of 300kbits/second avg.


Network Futures

Overview


GSMGSMCSDCSD

19921992 19991999 20002000 20022002 200320032G 2G + 3G

9.6 kb/s9.6 kb/s

HSCSDHSCSD

57 kb/s57 kb/s

GPRSGPRS

170 kb/s170 kb/s

EDGEEDGE

470 kb/s470 kb/s

UMTSUMTS11stst Release Release

2048 kb/s2048 kb/s

Theoretical maximum data speeds

GSM Evolution towards 3G UMTS

http://www.gsmworld.com/technology/gsm.shtml

http://www.gsmworld.com/technology/edge/index.shtml

http://www.gsmworld.com/technology/3g/index.shtml


?

MBWA(Wide Area)

UMTS(Dense)

HSDPA/HSUPA

4GOFDM*MIMO

2Mb/s2Mb/s

70 Mb/s70 Mb/s

15+ Mb/s15+ Mb/s

14.4 Mb/s14.4 Mb/s

WiFi(Local Area) 50 - 100 50 - 100

Mb/s?Mb/s?

UMTS(Wide Area)

2003 2004 2006 2008

384 kb/s384 kb/s

3G 3G + MBWA 4G

* OFDM : Orthogonal FDM

11 - 54 Mb/s11 - 54 Mb/s

Theoretical max data rates depend on radio conditions &/or system options eg bandwidth.Time scales are approximate/illustrative.The terms 3G+, Evolved 3G, Super 3G, Beyond 3G, 4G etc are not officially defined.

3G Evolution towards 4G

WiMax?


Network Futures

Some Fundamentals


Constraints on Coverage

• Limit for a non-fading channel was established by Claude Shanon in a classic paper in 1948. Minimum received signal defined by:

• Modern systems are getting closer to this limit, so unless we use bigger antennas or more transmit power, more bits/second means smaller cells, whatever the radio access technology

• Uplink generally more constrained because of batter power and EMF safety limits

Eb / No = -1.6dB

Energy per Bit Noise Spectral Density

Depends on:• Transmitter Power• Size of Antennas• Path Loss (Frequency)

Depends on:• A Fundamental Limit (Physics)• Receiver Performance• Interference


Terminal Site densityRooftop panel (10dBi) 1Upstairs window, fixed (3dBi) 12Outdoor laptop (0dBi) 60Indoor laptop (0dBi) Suburban 230Indoor laptop (0dBi) Urban 800

Range

• coverage = more sites




Data Rate

3 Sector base station at 25m to outdoor PC card

100kb/s 1.49km

1Mb/s 0.78km

10Mb/s 0.41km

100Mb/s 0.21km

Range

Site density

1

3.6

15

50


• higher data rate = more sites



• higher frequency = more sites


900MHz 2100MHz

4000MHz3500MHz2500MHz

Data Rate


100kb/s 1.49km

1Mb/s 0.78km

10Mb/s 0.41km

100Mb/s 0.21km

Range

Site density

1

3.6

15

50







900MHz 2100MHz


Data Rate


100kb/s 1.49km

1Mb/s 0.78km

10Mb/s 0.41km

100Mb/s 0.21km

Range

Site density

1

3.6

15

50



Constraints on Coverage• downlink efficiency (bps/Hz/site)

0

2.0

4.0




900MHz 2100MHz


Data Rate


100kb/s 1.49km

1Mb/s 0.78km

10Mb/s 0.41km

100Mb/s 0.21km

Range

Site density

1

3.6

15

50

Fixed Mobile

Chalk Cheese





Beware Specmanship – “My System is faster than Yours”

• Modern technologies (EDGE, HSDPA, WiMax, Flarion) ALL maximise use of the spectrum using flexible allocation of resources and adaptive modulation and coding.

• Downlink throughput often shared by all users

• What data rate will it deliver?

How long is a piece of string?


• Modern technologies are beginning to approach Shannon limit - A new technology is unlikely to provide more than a marginal increase in range for a given data rate.

• The only way to get more coverage is to:Transmit more power

Transmit data slower

Use bigger/higher antennas

Use a lower frequency

Get someone else to pass on a message

• Uplink transmit power likely to be the limiting factor in range

• Downlink transmit power and peak data rate determine downlink range. Peak data rate then needs to be shared between users

Constraints on Coverage - Summary


User Data Rate BroadbandNarrowband

Mbps

Highspeed

Pedestrian

Nomadic

Stationary

Level of

mob

ilit

y

0,1 1 10

Lowspeed

Indoor

Mobility vs. Speed

MOBILIY

Speed

•Mobile•Nomadic•Fixed


• Cellular technologies become more and more broadband(HSDPA, HSUPA)

• Alternative wireless technologies becomemore and more mobile(WiMAX, Flash-OFDM, 802.20)

Several technologies compete for mobile Broadband: HSDPA is the most promising candidate

3Gplus802.20

User Data Rate BroadbandNarrowband

Mbps

Highspeed

Flash-OFDM

BWAIEEE 802.16

Pedestrian

Nomadic

Stationary

Level of

mob

ilit

y

2GGSM

2.5GGPRS/EDGE 3G

W-CDMA HSDPA

Bluetooth

BWAIEEE 802.16a

IEEE802.16d

Wi-FiIEEE 802.11

WiMAXIEEE 802.16e

CableDSL

Dial-Up

0,1 1 10

Lowspeed

Indoor

Mobility vs. Speed


Mobility

User datarate

10 Mbps0.1

IEEE802.16a,d

1 100

HSDPAIEEE

802.16e

WLAN(IEEE 802.11x)

GSMGPRS

DECT

BlueTooth

3G/UMTS

EDGE

FlashOFDM(802.20)

XDSL, CATV, Fiber

Mobility

User datarate

10 Mbps0.1

IEEE802.16a,d

1 100

HSDPAIEEE

802.16e

WLAN(IEEE 802.11x)

GSMGPRS

DECT

BlueTooth

3G/UMTS

EDGE

FlashOFDM(802.20)

XDSL, CATV, Fiber

Fix

edW

alk

Veh

icle

Indoor

Pedestrian

High Speed

VehicularRural

Personal Area

VehicularUrban

Fixed urban

Nomadic

Technology Landscape

NEXT :Ad-hocMesh

Networks


Wireless broadband – the landscape

Fix

ed

wir

ele

ss b

road

ban

d

802.16-2004 (fixed WiMax)

AlvarionNaviniApertoAdaptix…

Proprietary, but aspiring to WiMaxcertification and eventually802.16e

Mesh networks (mostly based on 802.11)SkyPilotBelAir

Nortel WMNIWICS

Mo

bile

bro

adb

an

d

Flarion / QualcommArrayComm

802.16e(mobile WiMax)

TD-CDMA/FDDIPWireless

HSDPA


Network Futures

HSDPA / HSUPA


• Efficient data traffic delivery mechanism that is fully compatible with the current 3GPP system

HSDPA coverage is as good as UTRAN Rel’99 – No need for new sites

Voice and data on the same carrier – No need for extra spectrum to deploy

Utilises current Network Infrastructure - Software upgrade

• Full mobility

• Improves spectral efficiency of the Rel’99 system about 2-3 times for packet data services

• Significantly higher throughput and lower latency offers peak data rate of up to 14.4Mb/s (Practice 1 ~ 2 Mb/s)

• Specification also supports data rate as high as 384kbps in the uplink

• Requires new Terminals

HSDPA Goals


HSUPA Goals

• Once again only a software upgrade on the Network

• Full mobility

• Improves spectral efficiency of the Rel’99 system in the upload

• Significantly higher uplink throughput and lower latency

• Offers peak data rate of up to 5.76Mb/s, < 100ms

• New Terminals

• Availability 2007?


Network Futures

WiMax


• Allocations available in the 3.5 – 5.8GHz bands

Needs more cells than 3G

high frequencies make migration to full mobile service problematic.

• Good solution for areas where DSL can’t reach, but shear volume of data traffic makes it hard to compete for the heaviest internet households.

• Possible backhaul technology for WLAN public access points and pico-cells, but range and capacity restricts use as a base station backhaul solution.

• Intel remain bullish on its capabilities:

Intel CEO view: better than DSL (50 – 100Mb/s).

Our view: peak rates <10.5Mb/s - need MIMO or other techniques to improve it

DSL Household Usage Levels W. Europe

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

MB

yte

s /

Mo

nth

/H

ou

se

ho

ld

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

GB

yte

s /

Mo

nth

/H

ou

se

ho

ld

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

25% Lowest Usage Households 25-50% Usage Households 50-75% Usage Households

25% Heaviest Usage Households Average Usage Per Household

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008



Source: IDC 2005

WiMAX hype becomes hysteria

ArcChart (9 Jun 2005 ) – Intel CEO, Graig Barrett made a bizarre WiMAX claim during a Reuters interview. Barrett suggested that fixed broadband was not fast enough, describing most DSL and cable connections in the home as “half-ass broadband” which is no good for video streaming or other applications. WiMAX, he claimed, should be capable of 50Mbps to 100Mbps, and is therefore "significantly better than what we typically look at with DSL and cable."

Intel adds “napa” to Centrino roadmap

Fixed WiMax – Fixed Wireless Broadband


• There are no WiMax products available today Commercial products based on the superseded 802.16a are not WIMAX

certified These products are all focused on fixed wireless access deployments

• Site count required for mobile wireless is far greater than fixed Laws of physics have not changed, despite press speculation For 802.16e to offer comparable mobile service, similar densities as 3G

needed

• Too early to know how 802.16e will perform. Simulations in a multi-cell deployment urgently needed Handover ??

• 802.16 includes variety of modes and intended applications FDD and TDD, licensed and unlicensed spectrum, massive number of

options “70 Mbps capability and >30 km range” is true for only one mode – not

mobile! Historical focus on fixed wireless systems and wireless backhaul The only completed standard applies to fixed wireless access systems

• The 802.16e standard for mobility support is incomplete in many important areas

WiMax 802.16e (Mobile Wireless Access)

http://wimaxforum.org/news/events.asp


WiMax 802.16e (Mobile Wireless Access)

• Lack of detailed simulation or test results due

to the standards not being finished

• Early results suggest that 802.16e may have a

small increase in spectrum efficiency compared

to HSDPA

• The exact performance figures for mobile

WiMAX cannot be determined yet!

Will only be possible once standard is complete and a

WiMAX 802.16e profile has been selected

Earliest 802.16e deployment likely to be 2007



BT ready for WiMax drive

ZDNet UK (February 23, 2004) – WiMax is creating quite a stir in tech circles and BT is already using it to bring broadband to four rural locations. Could this be followed by a major rollout? Four radio-broadband trials being conducted by BT in rural parts of the UK could be the prelude to a full-scale deployment of WiMax in Britain.

Intel’s High Hopes for WiMAX

Wi-Fi networking news (Jan 2004) – During a speech at the Wireless Communications Association conference this week, Intel predicted that the next 10 years would be defined by broadband wireless: Intel has become a big supporter of WiMAX, hoping to see Wi-Fi and WiMAX bundled into computers.

Siemens plans to develop WiMAX network solution

RCR Wireless News (March 2004) – Siemens Information and Communication Mobile Group said it plans to develop a complete solution for WiMAX radio networks, which will be available in the second half of next year.

2004 - hype

2005 – set backSouth Korea questions need for WiBro

alongside HSDPA

3G Mobile (11th May 2005) – Hanaro Telecom's decision to relinquish the South Korean WiBro license it fought so hard for has highlighted what traditional equipment vendors have been long been saying: Ubiquitous, high-speed mobile data networks negate the need for alternative delivery methods.

2005 – Strong Backers

• Intel‘s inclusion in Centrino makes WiMax mobile credible.

Intel, Nokia Team on Mobile WiMax

IDG News Service (10 Jun 2005 ) – Intel and Nokia have teamed up to back the development of mobile WiMax technology, and will work together to see that the technology is standardized soon, the companies said this week. Intel and Nokia expect the standard to be finalized next year, they say.

Competition in US from IPWireless?

Hype is Fading but Backers are Strong


Network Futures

OFDM


TD-CDMA

Code Division Multiple Access

CDMA2000

WCDMA

Today

Tomorrow?Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access

3G evolution?Japan 4G

proposals

Uplink evolution is not so clear!!

Discontinuity in radio access technology

http://www.intel.com/index.htm?iid=HPAGE+header_intellogo&



Flarion’s Flash-OFDM (Qualcomm)

0

2.0

4.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

Rou

nd t

rip t

ime

(ms)

Dow

nlin

k ef

ficie

ncy

(bps

/Hz/

site

)

Fla

rion

Overview

Fully mobile technology with 7 years development effort

Requires 2 x 1.25 MHz

Successful Vodafone field trial

Peak rates 2.7Mbps DL, 0.8 UL

Aggregate 1.8Mbps DL, 0.4 UL

<40 ms round trip time (latency)

Maturity

No commercial deployments

Infrastructure available from Flarion, Siemens and Nortel

Flarion PCMCIA card

Excellent, but handover not as impressive..!

Customer Propositions

BRAND

Service Enabling

Connectivity

Access

People’s needs & wants

Plug ‘n Play

Plug ‘n Play

Laws of nature

Customer Propositions

BRAND

Service Enabling

Connectivity

Access

People’s needs & wants

Plug ‘n Play

Plug ‘n Play

Laws of nature

No service concept


Network Futures

Various Considerations


Ch

an

ne

l e

qu

iva

len

ts (

pe

r c

ell

)

Concurrent viewers/cell

1

4MBMS, 200kbit/ch*

20 users3G capacity

limit

3G, 200kbit/ch

5 users3G capacity

limit

HSDPA, 200kbit/ch

• HSDPA effective for unicast of video clips – and expansion of handset memory will allow non-real time viewing of off-peak download

• Serious adoption of 3G MobileTV will cause capacity problems – then broadcast technologies will be needed

• MBMS is more cost effective than streaming LiveTV, but is limited to ~ 4 concurrent TV channels*

• We can expect to see mobile broadcast technologies rolled-out in Europe quite soon:

Mobile TV - which technology?

* Assuming a 3G carrier used only for MBMS

DVB-H 4 Mbit/s, 250kbit/ch16

DVB-H Multiplex, 250kbit/ch38

3G

MBMS

HSDPA

2005 2006 2007 2008

DVB-H

Introductory/transition phases


UMA (Unlicensed Mobile Access)

• Provides Access to GSM/GPRS services over alternative (potentially any) access methods – current focus on WLAN – targetted for Release 7. Concept has the potential to be extended to

3GSM

• Provides tight coupling and re-use of GSM/GPRS core network.

• Differs from existing 3GPP WLAN integration (I-WLAN) effort as it mainly benefits CS services (Voice, SMS). UMA primarily suited for extending CS into

unlicensed spectrum I-WLAN primarily suited for extending

‘broadband’ packet services into unlicensed spectrum

• BT utilising UMA for its Bluephone product. Launch has been delayed whilst they wait for

commercial UMA solution.

Broadband Access

Home / Enterprise

GSN MSC

UMAController

Handover

BSC

Mobile Core Network

Carrier private Network

IP Access Network

AccessPoint

BTS

Broadband Access

Home / Enterprise

GSN MSC

UMAController

Handover

BSC

Mobile Core Network

Carrier private Network

IP Access Network

AccessPoint

BTS


• Each node communicates only with closest base station.

• Base stations connected through high-capacity wires or optical fibers.

• Base stations do most of the work.

• Not a truly wireless network (only last hop is wireless) !

Mesh Networks: Cellular Topology


Mesh Networks: Ad-Hoc Topology

• No base stations, but nodes can talk to each other.

• Nodes have to get organized without the help of base stations. – This is a much more challenging problem!

• A truly wireless network!

• Another way to think about it: a wireless internet.


Why Ad-Hoc Networks?

• They can be build very fast. – No need to establish wired connections.

• They are very resilient. – No single point of failure, such as a base station.

• They are spectrally more efficient than cellular networks. – Every node can communicate with any other node, so nodes can make better use of the channel.

• Placing wires may be impossible, prohibitively expensive, or just not necessary.

• No need for operators.


Summary

• HSDPA / HSUPA provides best option for Mobile Wireless Broadband in the Short and Medium Term

• WiMax well suited to Fixed Wireless Broadband

• 802.16e not ready and is limited in Mobile Capability – more Nomadic

• OFDM is the future for both Fixed and Mobile Networks – 3 x W-CDMA

• Watch Qualcomm

• UMA and Ad-Hoc Networks holds great promise


Questions

Jannie van Zyl

[email protected]

Vodacom3G


Thank You

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