GCI Export Roundtable - Atlanta, GA / March 19, 2013 Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS

Going Global:Opportunities for the Atlanta Region

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Source: Ezell, Stephen and Robert Atkinson, 2012, “Fifty Ways to Leaver Your Competitiveness Woes Behind,” ITIF.

Tradable Sector Job

=Local Jobs

The U.S. Economy Has Grown Very Few Jobs in the Sector That Drives Prosperity

2

Source: Ezell, Stephen and Robert Atkinson, 2012, “Fifty Ways to Leaver Your Competitiveness Woes Behind,” ITIF.

Tradable Sector Job

=Local Jobs

2%incremental job growth in the U.S. between 1990-2008 from tradable sectors

Source: Michael Spence, “The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge,” Council on Foreign Relations, 2011.

The U.S. Economy Has Grown Very Few Jobs in the Sector That Drives Prosperity

2

29%BIC Countries

2016

Global GDP

18.3%US

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009

The New Reality: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.

3

29%BIC Countries

2016

Global GDP

18.3%US

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009

The New Reality: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.

$ trillionglobal middle class consumption in 2000

21

3

3129%BIC Countries

2016

Global GDP

18.3%US

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009

The New Reality: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.

$ trillionglobal middle class consumption in 2020

3

Source: Istrate, Emilia and Carey Anne Nadeau, 2012, “Global MetroMonitor 2012,” Brookings.

1. Macau, Macau2. Perth, Australia 3. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia4. Xiamen, China5. Changsha, China6. Fuzhou, China7. San Juan, Puerto Rico8. Hangzhou, China9. Wuhan, China10. Hefei, China

11. Jakarta, Indonesia12. Zhongshan, China13. Delhi, India14. Jeddah-Mecca, Saudi Arabia15. Shenzhen, China16. Ningbo, China17. Zhuhai, China18. Wulumuqi, China19. Kunming, China20. Dongying, China

Top 20 Global Metros, Economic

Performance (2011-2012)

The New Reality: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.

4

1 2 3

1

2 3

Exports will be a key driver of the next economy

5

Leaders Will Harness the Potential of Global Trade

$14.9

$17.8

$12.4

2009 2010 2011

Global Exports Value(2009-2011, trillions)

Source: International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade Statistics (December 2012), Emilia Istrate and Nick Marchio, “Export Nation 2012,” Brookings, 2012.

46%

Exports Share of U.S. GDP Growth(2010-2011)

6

Source: Economics and Statistics Administration, 2011, “U.S. Trade in Private Services,” Washington, DC

The U.S. Has a $194 Billion Trade Surplus in Services

Financial

Software Licenses

Travel

Other Business

Industrial Licenses

Education

Management Consulting

Passenger Fares

Telecommunications

Research & Development

Computing

Freight & Port Use

Insurance-$40 -$30 -$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60

U.S. Balance of Trade by Services Sector, 2011(billions)

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Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, 2010, “Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Characteristics and Performance,” Washington,

Going Global Pays Off for Small and Medium Enterprises

Non-Exporting

-7%

Exporting

37%

U.S. Manufacturing Firms Revenue Growth(2005-2009)

8

Exports Share of GDP2011

13%

United States

29% 22%

15%

30%

Japan

China Canada India

European Union

15%

Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011

The U.S. Is an Under-Exporter

9

The U.S. Is an Under-Exporter

Source: International Trade Administration

1%of all U.S. firms export

42%of surveyed middle-market U.S. firms operate entirely within the U.S.

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, “U.S. Middle Market Firms and the Global Marketplace: Should I Stay or Should I Go,” 2013.

10

The U.S. Is an Under-Exporter

Source: International Trade Administration

1%of all U.S. firms export

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, “U.S. Middle Market Firms and the Global Marketplace: Should I Stay or Should I Go,” 2013.

4%of surveyed middle-market U.S. firms are currently expanding overseas

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• Companies fear exporting

• Companies lack awareness of global opportunities and services

• Inadequate pipeline of export ready companies

• Export services vary in quality and are often fragmented

• State and federal efforts often lack sustained vision and commitment

The U.S. Is an Under-Exporter

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The Atlanta region must act on the export moment to prosper in the next economy

1 2 31

2

3

12

$20.0(13th)

8.0%(77th)

Export Volume(billions, 2010)

Clean Economy Intensity

Export Intensity(2010)

The Atlanta Region Is a Major Exporter, But Lags In Intensity and Growth

Sources: Emilia Istrate and Nick Marchio, “Export Nation 2012,” Brookings

10.8%(49th)

Export Growth(2009-2010)

6.7%(60th)

Export Growth(2003-2008)

13

$20.0(13th)

8.0%(77th)

Export Volume(billions, 2010)

Clean Economy Intensity

Export Intensity(2010)

The Atlanta Region Is a Major Exporter, But Lags In Intensity and Growth

Sources: Emilia Istrate and Nick Marchio, “Export Nation 2012,” Brookings

10.8%(49th)

Export Growth(2009-2010)

6.7%(60th)

Export Growth(2003-2008)

53%

67%

Services Share of Exports(2010)

Services Share of Export Growth(2003-2010)

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Goods Exports

Services Exports

PatentsPopulation

65%75% 78%

66%

Top 100 MetrosShare of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, BLS, BEA, NIH and NSF data

75%

GDP

Metro Areas Hold the Bulk of the Assets That Will Drive Exports

82%

Air FreightCollege Degrees

74%

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3

Metro Areas Play a Unique Role In Boosting Exports

Federal

Open new markets through free trade agreements

Finance exports through Ex-Im and SBA

Provide on-the-ground expertise in foreign markets

Produce export data to inform state and regional efforts

15

3

Metro Areas Play a Unique Role In Boosting Exports

State

Federal

Organize and facilitate trade missions

Support and coordinate metro-level efforts

Prioritize exports in state economic strategy

Open new markets through free trade agreements

Finance exports through Ex-Im and SBA

Provide on-the-ground expertise in foreign markets

Produce export data to inform state and regional efforts

15

3

Metro Areas Play a Unique Role In Boosting Exports

Increase the number of export-ready firms through direct relationships

Coordinate federal, state, and local programs

Catalyze cultural shift by mainstreaming exports and trade

Metro

State

Federal

Organize and facilitate trade missions

Support and coordinate metro-level efforts

Prioritize exports in state economic strategy

Open new markets through free trade agreements

Finance exports through Ex-Im and SBA

Provide on-the-ground expertise in foreign markets

Produce export data to inform state and regional efforts

15

The Atlanta region can launch an export plan to reposition the region for global success

1 2 31 2

3

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Join the Metropolitan Export Initiative

Portland, Los Angeles, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Syracuse

Charleston, Chicago, Columbus, Des Moines, Louisville/Lexington, San Antonio, San Diego, Tampa Bay

Metropolitan Export Initiative

Data: Export Nation 2010 & 2012

In Depth: Four pilot metros

Resources: brookings.edu/metro/mei

Scale Up: Metropolitan Export Exchange

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Metropolitan Export Planning

Portland

Target industries: computers and electronics, clean technology & innovation

Goal: Double exports in the next five years

Strategies:

1.Leverage primary exporters in computer and electronics

2.Catalyze under-exporters in manufacturing

3. Improve the export pipeline for small business

4. “We Build Green Cities” - brand and market Greater Portlandʼs global edge

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Metropolitan Export Planning

Portland

Target industries: computers and electronics, clean technology & innovation

Goal: Double exports in the next five years

City of PortlandMayor’s Office

18

Metropolitan Export Planning

Export Plan Co-Chairs

Portland

19

The 10 Steps Guide and MEI Website Help Metros Deliver Export Plans

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1. Go Metro to Go Global

8. Identify and Promote Policy Priorities3. Produce a Data-Driven Market Scan

2. Organize for Success

4. Capture Local Market Insight

5. Champion Exports Now

6. Develop a Customized Export Plan

7. Prepare for Implementation

9. Track and Publicize Progress

10. Mainstream Exports Into Economic Development

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1. Go Metro to Go Global

Go Metro to Go Global

8. Identify and Promote Policy Priorities

3. Produce a Data-Driven Market Scan

Market Assessment

Developing the Export Plan

Track and Publicize Progress

2. Organize for Success

4. Capture Local Market Insight

5. Champion Exports Now

6. Develop a Customized Export Plan

7. Prepare for Implementation

9. Track and Publicize Progress

10. Mainstream Exports Into Economic Development

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AtlantaBuild on Metropolitan Atlantaʼs Strengths

Target industries

Goals

Network

Strategies

Metropolitan Atlanta

Export Plan

Metropolitan Export Planning

22

Exports Should Be Part of a Larger Global Engagement Strategy

GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT

Innovative U.S. Products & Services

Skills to Support Innovation

Exports & FDI

Freight & Infrastructure

Immigrant Talent/Cultural Fluency

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Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS

Going Global:Opportunities for the Atlanta Region

GCI Export Roundtable - Atlanta, GA / March 19, 2013 24