Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 1 Making an inefficient energy system in Europe more efficient Sven Werner,...

Brussels, Dec 1, 2009Brussels, Dec 1, 2009 11

Making an inefficient Making an inefficient energy system in Europe energy system in Europe

more efficientmore efficient

Sven Werner, professorSven Werner, professor

Halmstad University, SwedenHalmstad University, Sweden

Partly based on the IEE Ecoheatcool project findings, 2005-2006


OutlineOutline

1.1. Inefficient energy system in EuropeInefficient energy system in Europe2.2. Heat recycling can increase the system Heat recycling can increase the system

efficiencyefficiency3.3. Expansion of current district heating Expansion of current district heating

systems and the available resourcessystems and the available resources4.4. Two time horizons: 2020 and 2050Two time horizons: 2020 and 20505.5. Barriers for expansion of district heating Barriers for expansion of district heating

systemssystems6.6. Some concluding proposalsSome concluding proposals


1. Input-output analysis in 4 steps1. Input-output analysis in 4 steps

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Total PrimaryEnergy Supply (IEA

statistics)

Total FinalConsumption (IEA

statistics)

Total End Use(estimated)

Total Efficient EndUse (estimated with30% inefficiency)

EJ

Heat losses, central conversion(energy sector)

Heat losses, local conversion(consumers)

Heat losses, end use inefficiency

Combustible renewables andwaste

Solar/wind/other

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Petroleum products

Coal and coal products

Transportation

Electricity

Heat

European Union - 27 during 2006

Total Primary Energy Supply = 76,3 EJ


1. Some activities are more inefficient 1. Some activities are more inefficient than othersthan others

Input-Output analysis for various parts of the energy system

EU27 in 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Electricity District heat Fuel for heat -Industrial

sector

Fuel for heat -Other sectors

(buildings)

Fuel fortransportation

EJ

Output: Consumer end use of energy

Input: Total primary energy supply




EU27 in 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


sector


(buildings)


EJ

Heat losses






EU27 in 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


sector


(buildings)


EJ

Heat losses



Recycling of heat losses


1. Inefficiency conclusions1. Inefficiency conclusions The EU27 energy system generates large The EU27 energy system generates large

amounts of conversion heat losses (60 % of amounts of conversion heat losses (60 % of the input) due to energy inefficiency.the input) due to energy inefficiency.

Inefficient parts dominate the energy system.Inefficient parts dominate the energy system.

The most efficient part is small: The 5000+ The most efficient part is small: The 5000+ district heating systems recycle only 2 EJ. district heating systems recycle only 2 EJ. Hereby, the total conversion heat losses are Hereby, the total conversion heat losses are reduced from 48 to 46 EJ.reduced from 48 to 46 EJ.


2. Heat recycling and renewable resources 2. Heat recycling and renewable resources today in European district heating systemstoday in European district heating systems

Thermal power plantsThermal power plants, also called Combined Heat and Power , also called Combined Heat and Power (CHP) or Cogeneration, using 8% of total available heat (CHP) or Cogeneration, using 8% of total available heat resourcesresources

Waste incinerationWaste incineration in Waste-to-Energy plants, using 7% of in Waste-to-Energy plants, using 7% of total available non-recycled wastetotal available non-recycled waste

Industrial processesIndustrial processes having useful waste heat flows, using having useful waste heat flows, using less than 3% of total available heat resources less than 3% of total available heat resources

BiomassBiomass, using 1% of the current potential, using 1% of the current potential

GeothermalGeothermal, using 80 ppm of the current potential, using 80 ppm of the current potential


2. The fundamental idea2. The fundamental idea

District Heating System Fossil fuels

Renewables as geothermal heat and biomass

Heat recycled from combined heat and power, waste incineration, and industrial surplus heat

Heat losses

Heat delivered for low temperature heat demands

The fundamental idea of district heating


2. Heat supply composition2. Heat supply composition

EU27 - Heat sources for district heating etc

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

PJ/year

Fossil fuels, directuse

Renewables, directuse (geothermal,biomass, and waste)

Recycled heat,renewable CHP(waste and biomass)

Recycled heat, fossilCHP and industries


3. Expansion possibilities3. Expansion possibilities

Current district heat market share is less Current district heat market share is less than 10% in EU27than 10% in EU27

Doubling market share and improving the Doubling market share and improving the energy supply will give substantial benefits: energy supply will give substantial benefits:

Lower carbon dioxide emissions, 400 million Lower carbon dioxide emissions, 400 million tons per yeartons per year

Lower import dependence, 4.5 EJLower import dependence, 4.5 EJ Lower primary energy supply, 2.1 EJLower primary energy supply, 2.1 EJ


3. District 3. District heating: The five heating: The five

strategic heat strategic heat flowsflows

Heat flows in EJ during 2003 for the target area of 32 countries

Residual heat from all thermal power generation

19,2

Potential for direct use of geothermal heat

1,6

0,03

370

District heat generated

Surplus heat from industries

1,1 0,03

2,0

Biomass potential

0,17

0,14

Waste incinerated

2,3

0,5

Non-recycled waste

13-18

1,8

Industrial CHP


3. Expansion 3. Expansion possibility – possibility – geothermalgeothermal resources resources


3. Use of combustible renewables vs forest growth3. Use of combustible renewables vs forest growth

Total Primary Energy Supply of Combustible Renewables, GJ/capita

1

10

100

0,1 1,0 10,0 100,0

Net annual increment of the forest growing stock, m3 ob/capita

Luxembourg

Greece

Slovak Republic

PortugalDenmark

Latvia

Sweden

FinlandGreen line

for 20% of net annual increment

Blue line for 100% of net annual increment

Norway

Netherlands

Estonia

France

Lithuania

Slovenia

Austria

Spain

Czech republic

ItalyIreland

Belgium

United Kingdom

Poland

Croatia

Figure 18. National per capita combinations of total primary energy supply of combustible renewables (excluding the biomass part in municipal waste) and the net annual increment of the forest growing stock. Reference lines added for 20% and 100% fuel use of the net annual increment, assuming a net calorific value of 7,3 GJ/m3 ob.


3. Expansion potential3. Expansion potential

Half of the short term expansion Half of the short term expansion potential in EU27 can be found in potential in EU27 can be found in Germany, France and United Germany, France and United Kingdom. The corresponding Kingdom. The corresponding residential market shares for district residential market shares for district heating are currently 13 %, 5 %, and heating are currently 13 %, 5 %, and 1%, respectively.1%, respectively.


4. Two time horizons4. Two time horizons

2020, short term mitigation time 2020, short term mitigation time horizon:horizon: Most changes must be Most changes must be fulfilled within the existing energy fulfilled within the existing energy system with a low share of new system with a low share of new technologytechnology

2050, long term mitigation time 2050, long term mitigation time horizon:horizon: Possibility to create a Possibility to create a completely new energy system with completely new energy system with a high share of new technologya high share of new technology


4. Short term example: Fast extensive natural gas 4. Short term example: Fast extensive natural gas substitution by heat recycled from a large pulp millsubstitution by heat recycled from a large pulp mill

Varberg, Sweden

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Annual sales, TJ/year

Natural gas

District Heat, mainly based onrecycled industrial waste heat

The extension of the district heating system in Varberg has increased the district heat market share from 6% to 45%. The corresponding carbon dioxide emissions have decreased with 40%.


4. Long term example: Everything is 4. Long term example: Everything is possible in 40 yearspossible in 40 years

The Swedish heat market for buildings in the residential and service sectors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Market share

District heat

Electric heatingincl heatpumps

Others asfirewood andnatural gas

Fuel oil


5. The main barriers for higher energy efficiency5. The main barriers for higher energy efficiency

Low cost fossil fuelsLow cost fossil fuels Our legislations relate mostly to use of Our legislations relate mostly to use of

fossil fuels and do not recognise energy fossil fuels and do not recognise energy efficiencyefficiency

Carbon taxes and carbon dioxide trading Carbon taxes and carbon dioxide trading are in general not strong enoughare in general not strong enough

City mitigation projects requires often City mitigation projects requires often local actors, not always present todaylocal actors, not always present today

Short term investment horizons in energy Short term investment horizons in energy companiescompanies


6. Some concluding proposals6. Some concluding proposals

Redesign all legislation to consider energy efficiencyRedesign all legislation to consider energy efficiency

Do not allow large heat losses without heat recycling Do not allow large heat losses without heat recycling in new power or industrial plants, according to the in new power or industrial plants, according to the best available technology (BAT) principle in the IPPC best available technology (BAT) principle in the IPPC directivedirective

Redesign all international energy statistics to Redesign all international energy statistics to consider energy efficiency and distributed consider energy efficiency and distributed generationgeneration

Use only Joule (J) as energy unit, giving a more Use only Joule (J) as energy unit, giving a more transparent energy markettransparent energy market


The EndThe End

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!


Some back-up slidesSome back-up slides


Final consumption by customers Final consumption by customers before local conversion lossesbefore local conversion losses

0

5

10

15

20

25

Total Industry Sector Total Transport Sector Total Other Sectors

EJ Combustible renewablesand waste

Solar/wind/other

Geothermal

Natural gas

Petroleum products

Coal and coal products

Electricity

Heat

European Union - 27 during 2006

Total Final Consumption = 53,9 EJ


Our common historyOur common history

Crude oil, import price to Europe until August 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

jan-60 jan-65 jan-70 jan-75 jan-80 jan-85 jan-90 jan-95 jan-00 jan-05 jan-10 jan-15

USD/barrel

real 2008 USD


Electricity och gas dominates in Europe (2003)Electricity och gas dominates in Europe (2003)

Final end use of net heat and electricity for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 with origin of supply

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Industrial sector Residential sector Service sector

EJ heat

Solar/Wind/Other

Combustible Renewablesand Waste

Coal and Coal Products

Petroleum Products

Natural Gas

Electricity

Geothermal

Heat


2003: Residential electricity och heat demands2003: Residential electricity och heat demands

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

European heating index for the capital in each country, °C

Residential end use of net heat and

electricity, MJ/m2

ACC4

EFTA3

EU15

NMS10

EU15 average line

Luxembourg

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Poland

Finland

Belgium

United Kingdom

Denmark

Latvia

Austria

SpainPortugal

ItalyGreece

France

Estonia

Turkey

SwedenNorway

Malta

Czech republic

Croatia

Hungary Germany

Romania

Cyprus

Slovenia

%


German citiesGerman cities

District heat share of city heat demands in some German cities

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Au

gsb

urg

Be

rlin

Bie

lefe

ld

Bo

chu

m

Bo

nn

Bre

me

n

Da

rmst

ad

t

Do

rtm

un

d

Dre

sde

n

Dü

sse

ldo

rf

Erf

urt

Ess

en

Fra

nkf

urt

(O

de

r)

Fra

nkf

urt

am

Ma

in

Fre

ibu

rg im

Bre

isg

au

Gö

ttin

ge

n

Ha

lle a

n d

er

Sa

ale

Ha

mb

urg

Ha

nn

ove

r

Ka

rlsru

he

Kie

l

Ko

ble

nz

Kö

ln

Le

ipzi

g

Ma

gd

eb

urg

Ma

inz

Mü

lhe

im a

.d.R

uh

r

Mü

nch

en

Mö

nch

en

gla

db

ach

Nü

rnb

erg

Po

tsd

am

Re

ge

nsb

urg

Sa

arb

ruck

en

Sch

we

rin

Trie

r

We

ima

r

Wie

sba

de

n

Wu

pp

ert

al


French citiesFrench cities

District heat share of city heat demands in some French cities

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Aja

ccio

Am

ien

s

Be

san

con

Bo

rde

au

x

Ca

en

Ca

yen

ne

Cle

rmon

t-F

err

an

d

Dijo

n

Fo

rt-d

e-F

ran

ce

Gre

no

ble

Le

Ha

vre

Lill

e

Lim

oge

s

Lyo

n

Ma

rse

ille

Me

tz

Mo

ntp

ellie

r

Na

ncy

Na

nte

s

Nic

e

Orl

ean

s

Pa

ris

Po

inte

-a-P

itre

Po

itier

s

Re

ims

Re

nne

s

Ro

uen

Sa

int

Den

is

Sa

int-

Etie

nn

e

Str

asb

ourg

To

ulo

use


Dutch citiesDutch cities

District heat share of city heat demands in some Dutch cities

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Am

ster

dam

Arn

hem

Ein

dhov

en

Ens

ched

e

Gro

ning

en

Hee

rlen

Rot

terd

am

s' G

rave

nhag

e

Tilb

urg

Utr

echt

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