BTSGIF Earnings Presentationbtsgif.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20200605-btsgif... ·...

BTSGIF Earnings Presentation 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020

5 Jun 2020

Disclaimer

This is not prospectus of BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund (“BTSGIF” or “the Fund”). Investment in the Funds contains certain risk. Before investing, please carefully study the prospectus of the Funds. An investment in investment units shall not be deemed as deposit of money. The unitholders may receive an amount of any return that is more or less than the initial amount invested. Furthermore, the Fund has intention to invest in infrastructure projects which is a long-term investment; as a consequence, the investors ought to be aware of its risks from and returns on investment in investment units. This Fund invests in the future net farebox revenue from the Core BTS SkyTrain System. Its value may decrease along with elapse of the concession term, thus decreasing the value of the investment units accordingly. The unitholders will receive return of initial investment in the form of dividend and capital reduction. Once the term expires according to the Net Revenue Purchase and Transfer Agreement that the Fund has invested in, the value of the investment units may decrease to Baht zero. This document has been prepared solely for the information purpose. The information contained herein is general and does not constitute advice or opinion, and should not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. None of this information in this document constitutes an offer to treat, buy or sell any security or to participate in any trading strategy. Third parties cannot derive any rights from this document. While particular attention has been paid to the contents of this document, no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given to the accuracy, correctness or completeness thereof. Any information given in this document may be subject to change or update without notice. No liability (such as, but not limited to, direct, consequential, special, punitive or indirect damages) will be accepted for any loss sustained by readers as a result of using this document or basing decisions on it. Please note that the investment is not a deposit of money and may be subject to certain risks. The value of your investment may rise or fall and also past performance is not insisting of future performance and shall in no event be deemed as such. For more information relating to the Fund, please visit www.btsgif.com or www.bblam.co.th

2 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation

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Contents


Page

I. Financial Highlights 4

II. Core Network Performance 10

III. Distribution Summary 13

IV. Business Update 16

V. Appendices 21

4

4Q 19/20 Income Statement

BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation

Financial Highlights

Unit (THB mn) 4Q 19/20 4Q 18/19 % YoY 3Q 19/20 % QoQ

Income from investment in NRTA (see details in slide 6) 978.4 987.1 (0.9)% 1,270.0 (23.0)%

Interest income 3.9 5.0 (21.8)% 5.0 (22.0)%

Total Income 982.3 992.1 (1.0)% 1,275.0 (23.0)%

Fund management fee and expenses 17.0 21.6 (21.6)% 17.8 (4.4)%

Other expenses 2.8 (9.4) 129.9% 0.5 416.4%

Total Expenses 19.8 12.2 61.3% 18.3 8.1%

Net Investment Income 962.5 979.9 (1.8)% 1,256.7 (23.4)%

Total net losses on valuation of investments (5,907.4) (5,300.1) 11.5% (208.0) 2,739.6%

Changes in Net Assets resulting from Operations (4,944.9) (4,320.2) (14.5)% 1,048.7 (571.5)%

Net Investment Income Margin (%) 98.0% 98.8% 98.6%

THB/Unit THB/Unit THB/Unit

Net income available to the unitholders (to be paid as dividend if the fund has sufficient retained

earnings) (4,945.0) (0.854) (4,320.2) (0.746) (14.5)% 1,048.7 0.181 (571.5)%

Add back excess liquidity from loss on valuation of investments *

5,890.0 1.017 5,300.0 0.915 11.1% 200.0 0.034 2,845.0%

Total distribution available to unitholders 945.0 0.163 979.8 0.169 (3.6)% 1,248.7 0.215 (24.3)%

* Net from investment cost for Suksa Wittaya station of THB 17.6mn in 4Q 19/20 and 7.9mn in 3Q 19/20.

In 4Q 19/20, BTSGIF recognised a loss from valuation of investment of THB 5,907.4mn primarily from the devaluation in the fair value of its investment in NRTA of THB 5,890.0mn (non-cash expense), following the Fund’s reappraisal (significant impact of COVID-19). The new fair value of investment in NRTA, hence, decreased to THB 52,410mn from THB 58,300mn in the previous quarter.

The appraisal value decreased from the previous report due to COVID-19 impact and updated various factors, the key changes were i) COVID-19 impact on net farebox revenue in FY 20/21 ii) lower economic growth rate and inflation rate iii) a delay in the implementation of the dual track station iv) delay of the opening of various train lines.

5

FY 19/20 Income Statement



Unit (THB mn) FY 19/20 FY 18/19 % YoY

Income from investment in NRTA (see details in slide 7) 4,798.4 4,603.0 4.2%

Interest income 20.3 17.7 15.3%

Total Income 4,818.7 4,620.7 4.3%

Fund management fee and expenses 74.0 84.8 (12.7)%

Other expenses 14.7 10.5 40.2%

Total Expenses 88.7 95.3 (6.9)%

Net Investment Income 4,730.0 4,525.4 4.5%

Total net losses on valuation of investments (6,729.8) (6,300.0) 6.8%

Changes in Net Assets resulting from Operations (1,999.8) (1,774.6) (12.7)%

Net Investment Income Margin (%) 98.2% 97.9%

THB/Unit THB/Unit

Net income available to the unitholders (to be paid as dividend if the fund has sufficient retained earnings)

(1,999.8) (0.345) (1,774.6) (0.306) (12.7)%

Add back excess liquidity from loss on valuation of investments * 6,690.0 1.155 6,300.0 1.088 6.2%

Total distribution available to unitholders 4,690.2 0.810 4,525.4 0.781 3.6%

* Net from investment cost for Suksa Wittaya station of THB 40.0mn in FY 19/20



4Q 19/20 income from investment in NRTA

Unit (THB mn) 4Q 19/20 4Q 18/19 Change

(YoY) % YoY 3Q 19/20

Change

(QoQ) % QoQ

Farebox revenues 1,457.5 1,768.8 (311.3) (17.6)% 1,815.8 (358.3) (19.7)%

Total operating and maintenance costs 479.1 781.7 (302.6) (38.7)% 545.8 (66.7) (12.2)%

Employees expenses 147.9 152.3 (4.4) (2.9)% 211.8 (63.9) (30.2)%

Maintenance costs 141.2 130.8 10.4 7.9% 110.7 30.5 27.6%

Utilities expenses 90.8 94.2 (3.4) (3.6)% 92.4 (1.6) (1.7)%

Property insurance premium 17.2 21.4 (4.2) (19.6)% 0.0 17.2 100.0%

Selling expenses 17.3 11.6 5.7 49.8% 18.0 (0.7) (3.7)%

Administrative and other expenses 25.4 32.2 (6.8) (21.2)% 20.1 5.3 26.1%

Capital expenditures 39.3 339.2 (299.9) (88.4)% 92.8 (53.5) (57.6)%

Total income from investment in NRTA 978.4 987.1 (8.7) (0.9)% 1,270.0 (291.6) (23.0)%

Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 67.1% 55.8% 69.9%

FAREBOX REVENUE

Farebox revenue was THB 1,457.5mn, down 17.6% YoY and 19.7% QoQ. Due to the significant impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak since late January 2020, ridership this quarter dropped by 17.5% YoY and 19.9% QoQ to 50.4 mn trips. And average fare decreased 0.2% YoY from the higher proportion of monthly pass tickets in this quarter (note that monthly pass tickets generate cheaper average fare compared to other types of tickets) but increasing 0.2% QoQ from free trips for the Royal Coronation Ceremony of King Rama X in last quarter.

O&M COSTS

O&M costs were THB 479.1mn, down 38.7% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.

YoY decrease was from (i) lower CAPEX (mainly from radio upgrade of THB 22.4mn and rolling stocks of THB 1.9mn compared to AFC upgrade of THB 225.4mn, rolling stocks of THB 69.0mn and radio upgrade of THB 29.4mn last year), (ii) lower administrative and other expenses (mainly the decrease in environmental testing fee and lower ticket expenses) being partially offset by (iii) higher maintenance costs from maintenance contracts for new rolling stocks and costs of additional mileage exceeding service km specified in the contract.

QoQ decrease was led by (i) bonus paid to employees last quarter, (ii) lower CAPEX (AFC upgrade of THB 31.5mn, rolling stocks of THB 22.2mn and radio upgrade of THB 19.8mn last quarter), but partially offset by (iii) higher maintenance costs from additional mileage paid in the 4th quarter, space renovation to set up the TVM and higher lift and escalator maintenance costs and (iv) higher property insurance premium being paid in every 4th quarter.



FY 19/20 income from investment in NRTA

Unit (THB mn) FY 19/20 FY 18/19 Change

(YoY) % YoY

Farebox revenues 6,814.2 6,962.5 (148.3) (2.1)%

Total operating and maintenance costs 2,015.8 2,359.5 (343.7) (14.6)%

Employees expenses 693.0 785.5 (92.5) (11.8)%

Maintenance costs 466.0 467.6 (1.6) (0.3)%

Utilities expenses 372.9 384.2 (11.3) (3.0)%

Property insurance premium 17.3 21.5 (4.2) (19.5)%

Selling expenses 71.5 77.8 (6.3) (8.2)%

Administrative and other expenses 90.8 114.8 (24.0) (20.9)%

Capital expenditures 304.3 508.1 (203.8) (40.1)%

Total income from investment in NRTA 4,798.4 4,603.0 195.4 4.2%

Income from investment in NRTA margin (%) 70.4% 66.1%

FAREBOX REVENUE

Farebox revenue was THB 6,814.2mn, down 2.1% YoY from

i) ridership drop by 1.7% YoY to 236.9 mn trips due to the significant impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak since late January 2020 and

ii) average fare drop by 0.4% YoY due to free trips during the Royal Coronation Ceremony of King Rama X on 5-6 May and 12 Dec 2019, a total of 2.1mn trips (but this is partially offset by free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption last year)

O&M COSTS

O&M costs were THB 2,015.8mn, decreasing 14.6% YoY primarily from

i) lower CAPEX (rolling stocks of THB 161.4mn, radio upgrade of THB 42.2mn and AFC upgrade of THB 31.5mn compared to AFC upgrade of THB 269.9mn, radio upgrade of THB 100.5mn and rolling stocks of THB 84.5mn last year) and

ii) lower employee expenses from lower allocation costs from the opening of new green line extensions

1 In FY 18/19, farebox revenue was after deducting net free-trip allowance to passengers from train services disruption of THB 18.5mn.

1

8

(Unit: THB mn) 31 Mar 2020 31 Dec 2019 31 Mar 2019

Investment in NRTA

at cost 52,410.0

61,472.2

58,300.0

61,454.6

59,100.0

61,432.1

Investment in Securities at fair value

and Cash at bank 997.5 1,156.5 1,173.5

Other Assets 54.1 169.8 4.9

Total Assets 53,461.6 59,626.3 60,278.4

Total Liabilities 53.6 28.9 159.1

Net Asset Value 53,408.0 59,597.4 60,119.3

Capital Received from Unitholders 58,348.8 55,545.6 61,416.5

Retained Earnings (Deficits) (4,940.8) 1,051.8 (1,297.2)

NAV per Unit (THB) 9.2273 10.2967 10.3868



Balance Sheet

As of 31 Mar 2020, total assets stood at THB 53,461.6mn.

The main components were

- Investment in the NRTA of THB 52,410.0mn, decreased by THB 5,890.0mn from 31 Dec 2019

- Investment in securities at fair value and cash at bank of THB 997.5mn

- Other assets of THB 54.1mn (primarily account receivable from NRTA of THB 50.0mn)

Total liabilities stood at THB 53.6mn (no interest bearing debt), primarily accrued withholding tax of THB 25.2mn and other payables and accrued expenses, not yet due, of THB 24.8mn. Net Asset Value (NAV) as of 31 Mar 2020 was THB 53,408.0mn, equivalent to THB 9.2273 per unit.

Page





V. Appendices 21

Contents


Quarterly ridership : 50.4mn trips in 4Q 19/20

Due to the impact of COVID-19 since late January 2020, ridership

declined by 17.5% YoY and 19.9% QoQ.

The government has issued notifications forcing temporary closure of

various businesses. Additionally, the government requested for

people’s cooperation to stay at home and work from home in order

to control the spread of infection, causing the decrease in BTS

SkyTrain ridership in the last quarter.

4Q 19/20

Ridership 50.4mn trips, -17.5% YoY, -19.9% QoQ

Average fare (excluding extra events)

THB 28.9/trip, -0.2% YoY, -1.3% QoQ

Average fare (including extra events)

THB 28.9/trip, -0.2% YoY, +0.2% QoQ

Average weekday ridership 630,658 trips, -16.8% YoY, -18.6% QoQ


Core Network Performance

QUARTERLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH QUARTERLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH

4Q 19/20 Core Network Performance

* Excluding the impact of free trips for the Royal Coronation Ceremony

61.1 59.6 63.9 63.0

50.4

-0.8% -2.4%

7.2%

-1.5%

-19.9%

1.5% 4.4%

4.4%

2.2%

-17.5%

4Q 18/19 1Q 19/20 2Q 19/20 3Q 19/20 4Q 19/20

Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (% QoQ) Ridership Growth (% YoY)

29.0 29.1* 28.8 29.3* 28.9

-0.4%

0.4%

-0.9%

1.7%

-1.3%

0.6%

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

-0.2%

4Q 18/19 1Q 19/20 2Q 19/20 3Q 19/20 4Q 19/20

Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (% QoQ) Average Fare Growth (% YoY)

EXPLANATION SUMMARY

Note: Average fares above were calculated before extraordinary events for comparison purpose.

FY 19/20 Ridership: decreased from the COVID-19 impact since late January 2020

although during the first 9 months, ridership continued to grow from

the opening of the new green line extensions: Southern line from

Samrong station to Khe Ha station in Dec 2018 and Northern line

from Mo Chit station to Ha Yaek Lat Phrao station in Aug 2019 and

to Kasetsart university station in Dec 2019.

Average fare: THB 29.0 / trip, increasing by 0.2% YoY

FY 19/20

Ridership 236.9mn trips, -1.7% YoY

Average fare (excluding impact of free-trip this year and allowance last year)

THB 29.0/trip, +0.2% YoY

Average fare (including all impacts) THB 28.8/trip, -0.4% YoY

Average weekday ridership 735,385 trips, -1.2% YoY

11 BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation

Core Network Performance

YEARLY HISTORICAL AVERAGE FARE & GROWTH YEARLY HISTORICAL RIDERSHIP & GROWTH

EXPLANATION

FY 19/20 Core Network Performance

SUMMARY

27.5 28.0

28.3 29.0 29.0

2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 2.2% 0.2%

FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20

Average Fare (THB/trip) Average Fare Growth (%YoY)

232.5

238.0 241.2 241.0

236.9

6.3%

2.4% 1.3%

-0.1% -1.7%

FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20

Ridership (mn trips) Ridership Growth (%YoY)

Contents


Page





V. Appendices 21


Distribution Summary

Historical Distribution

FY Period No. Dividend Payment (THB per unit)

No.

Capital Return (THB per unit)

Total (THB per unit)

13/14 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Mar 2014 1-4 0.579 - - 0.579

14/15 1 Apr 2014 – 31 Mar 2015 5-8 0.606 1-2* 0.125 0.731

15/16 1 Apr 2015 – 31 Mar 2016 9-12 0.692 3 0.064 0.756

16/17 1 Apr 2016 – 31 Mar 2017 13-16 0.772 - - 0.772

17/18 1 Apr 2017 – 31 Mar 2018 17-20 0.798 - - 0.798

18/19 1 Apr 2018 – 31 Mar 2019 21-23 0.611 4 0.169 0.780

1Q 19/20 1 Apr 2019 – 30 Jun 2019 - - 5 0.204 0.204

2Q 19/20 1 Jul 2019 – 30 Sep 2019 24 0.103 6 0.123 0.226

3Q 19/20 1 Oct 2019 – 31 Dec 2019 25 0.181 7 0.034 0.215

4Q 19/20 1 Jan 2020 – 31 Mar 2020 - - 8 0.130 0.130

Total 17 Apr 2013 – 31 Mar 2020 1-25 4.342 1-8 0.849 5.191

* Payout from FY13/14 – 14/15 performances

Timetable of the 8th capital return

XD Date Book Closure Date Payment Date

11 Jun 20 15 Jun 20 29 Jun 20

1 Adjusted net profit = BTSGIF net profit less unrealised gain from the appraisal of assets and other adjustment items to be in line with the cash-basis of BTSGIF



Dividend Payment: Payout of not less than 90% of adjusted net profit1 p.a. and retained earnings (quarterly payment) Capital Return: The Fund has excess liquidity (cash from amortisation of fund issuance costs and loss on valuation of investment (non-cash expense)) and reduce its registered capital

DISTRIBUTION

Distribution to unitholders (THB 0.775/unit in FY19/20, and THB 0.780/unit in FY18/19)


Unit : THB/unit

* Payout from FY13/14 – 14/15 performances

*

0.000 0.125 0.064 0.000 0.000 0.169

0.491

0.579

0.606 0.692 0.772 0.798 0.611 0.284 0.579

0.731 0.756 0.772 0.798 0.780 0.775

FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20

Capital Return Dividend

Page





V. Appendices 21

Contents


Reappraisal (as significant change)

Loss on valuation of investment in NRTA

Retained Deficit (as of Mar 20)

The Fund has excess cash, yet, unable to pay a dividend from 4Q 19/20 performances

But being paid as CAPITAL RETURN

BTSGIF 4Q 19/20 and FY 19/20 Ended 31 Mar 2020 Earnings Presentation

Loss on Valuation of Investments and its Impact

Loss on Valuation of Investments and Impact

16

IMPACT FROM THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK

Dividend 2Q-3Q THB 0.284

Capital return 1Q – 4Q THB 0.491

Total FY 19/20 Distribution THB 0.775

• As per SEC, reappraisal of the Fund’s investment1 must be done every 3 years or when having any significant change. • During 4Q 19/20, “Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak” impacted significantly to the “Net Farebox Revenue”, causing

the Fund’s reappraisal. • In 4Q 19/20, there was a loss on valuation of investment of THB 5.9bn (non-cash expense)

1 Under normal circumstances, the Fund intends to reappraise its assets every 2 years.


Appraisal Value Assumptions

Changes of Key Factors in Valuation Reports

17

KEY FACTOR PREVIOUS REPORT (as of MAR 16)

PREVIOUS REPORT (as of MAR 19)

CURRENT REPORT (as of MAR 20)

1. COVID-19 • No COVID-19 • No COVID-19 • Impact from COVID-19

2. Lower economic growth rate • 4.0% in 2019 - 2026 • 4.0% in 2027 onwards

• 4.0% for 2019-2021 • 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards

• 2.4% for 2019 (2.0)% for 2020 4.5% for 2021

• 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards

3. Lower inflation rate 3% 2.5% 2.25%

4. Integrated fare structure of MRTA lines (one-time boarding fee)

No fare integration (boarding fee in each MRT line)

Fare integration; Blue, Purple, Orange (one-time boarding fee)

Fare integration; Blue, Purple, Orange (one-time boarding fee) (unchanged from Mar 19)

5. Delay in the implementation of dual track & the impact of closure of Saphan Taksin station

Expected dual track implementation in 2021

Closure 2 years and expected dual track implementation in 2022


6. Moving the van terminal at Victory Monument

Having van terminal at Victory Monument

Moving van terminal at Victory Monument

Moving van terminal at Victory Monument (unchanged from Mar 19)

7. Delay of the opening of Green Line Extension

• Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2019 • National Stadium - Yodsay

in 2021

• Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2022

• No National Stadium - Yodsay

• Bang Wa - Taling Chan in 2024

• No National Stadium - Yodsay

8. Delay of Suksa Wittaya station 2017 2020 2021

Valuation decrease - 4Q 18/19 = THB 5.3bn 4Q 19/20 = THB 5.9bn



Key Factors to a Decrease in Valuation

18

KEY FACTOR PREVIOUS REPORT MAR 19 (as of DEC 19)

CURRENT REPORT (MAR 20)

CHANGE

1. COVID-19 Impact for FY20/21

• No COVID-19 • Impact from COVID-19 THB (3.1)bn (or 50% of total decrease)

2. Shortened concession period per quarter

THB (200)mn THB (300)mn THB (100)mn

3. Lower economic growth rate GDP Impact on ridership growth (CAGR from FY18/19A – FY29/30)

• 4.0% for 2019-2021 • 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards Ridership CAGR = 3.9%

• 2.4% for 2019 • (2.0)% for 2020 • 4.5% for 2021 • 3.5% for 2022-2026 • 3.0% from 2027 onwards Ridership CAGR = 3.5%

• (1.6)% for 2019 • (6.0)% for 2020 • +0.5% for 2021 Decrease 0.4% p.a.

4. Lower inflation rate p.a. (CPI) Impact on average fare (CAGR from FY18/19A – FY29/30)

2.5% Fare CAGR = 3.1%

2.25% Fare CAGR = 2.5%

(0.25)% Decrease 0.6% p.a.

5. Delay in the implementation of dual track and the impact of closure of Saphan Taksin station



Delay 1 year (ridership drop ~2% in one year)

6. Delay of the opening of Green Line Bang Wa - Taling Chan

2022 2024 Delay 2 years

Valuation decrease 3Q 19/20 = THB (0.2)bn 4Q 19/20 = THB (5.9)bn THB (5.7)bn

Fact

ors

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2.5

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#1

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B 3

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Expenses, 15% THB 0.8bn

Shortened concession,

5% or THB 0.3bn

Revenue, 50% THB 3.1bn

Revenue, 30% THB 1.7bn



Key Factors to a Decrease in Valuation

19

From the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak Valuation decrease of THB 3.1bn or 50% of THB 5.9bn Note: Impacted to FY20/21 farebox revenue)

From the impact of changes in forecasted GDP and Inflation in FY 21/22 to FY 29/30 • GDP impact on ridership: A decrease of 0.4% p.a. or 3.6% for 9 years left of total ridership • Inflation impact on fare: A decrease of 0.6% p.a. or 5.4% for 9 years left Resulting to a decrease in net farebox revenue of 1.0% p.a. or 9% for 9 years left of total net FB rev.

Valuation as of 31 Mar 2020 was THB 52.4bn, decreasing from THB 58.3bn as of 31 Dec 2019. A decrease of THB 5.9bn was from

1. A decrease in revenue : THB 4.8bn (80%)

2. An increase in expense: THB 0.8bn (15%)

3. Shortened concession period impact: THB 0.3bn (5%)

Components of a change in valuation of THB 5.9bn

From shortened concession period Valuation decrease of THB 0.3bn or 5% of THB 5.9bn

Dividend Payment: Payout of not less than 90% of adjusted net profit1 p.a. and retained earnings (quarterly payment), and prohibit to pay dividend if the fund had retained deficit. Capital Return: The Fund has excess liquidity (cash from loss on valuation of investment (non-cash expense)) and reduce its registered capital


Distribution Outlook

Distribution Outlook

20

THB PER UNIT 9M

19/20 4Q

19/20 FY

20/21E 1Q

21/22E 2Q

21/22E 3Q

21/22E

DIVIDEND 0.284

- - - -

CAPITAL RETURN 0.361

0.130

TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 0.645

0.130

1 Adjusted net profit = BTSGIF net profit less unrealised gain from the appraisal of assets and other adjustment items to be in line with the cash-basis of BTSGIF

DISTRIBUTION


Suksa Wittaya Station (S4)

Suksa Wittaya Station (S4)

Winner announcement with final price

• 570m from Surasak station (S5) and 610m from Chong Nonsi station (S3)

• Side platform station similar to S3 and S5 with typical stairs and escalator

• Total investment cost ~THB 650mn

• The Fund will provide 50% of the investment cost, using existing cash

Project details Tentative timeline

15 Oct 2015 BMA Approval

Submission of bidding document Jan 2016

Trustee Approval Jun 2016

Signed construction contract Aug 2016

Construction finish

S4 Operation

3 months

2 months

18 months

2.5 months

Additional FY 2020/21E (first operating year)

Ridership ~10,000 trips / weekday

Gross farebox revenue ~THB 112mn p.a.

Net farebox revenue ~THB 85mn p.a.

Apr 2016

2 months

BMA Approval and started construction

Sep 2019

36 months

1Q 2021

21

Progress of the construction work as of Mar 2020

Plan Actual Early/Delay

41.0% 36.4% -4.6%

Contents


Page





V. Appendices 21

11

2.2

23

BTSGIF Appendix: Forecasted Ridership until FY 29/30

Projected ridership

CAGR Ridership

(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)

3.5%

CAGR Fare

(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)

2.5%

CAGR FB Revenue

(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)

6.0%

CAGR Net FB Revenue

(FY 18/19A – FY 29/30)

7.7%

Note: These projections were derived from valuation report by C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Systra MVA (Thailand), except for FY 20/21F was based on BTSC. FY 13/14A, ridership was for the full year of FY 13/14. FY29/30F (1 Apr 29 – 4 Dec 29), ridership growth was prorated to the full year.

Actual ridership


Forecast of Ridership until FY 29/30

21

4.7

21

8.7

23

2.5

23

8.0

24

1.2

24

1.0

23

6.9

16

9.9

26

4.4

27

2.9

29

2.0

29

9.9

31

2.8

31

4.2

33

1.0

34

1.3

23

7.9

1.9% 6.3% 2.4% 1.3% -0.1% -1.7%

-28.3%

55.6%

3.2% 7.0% 2.7% 4.3% 0.4% 5.3% 3.1% 2.6%

Forecasted ridership Ridership growth (%YoY)

4,2

50

Actual farebox revenue

24

BTSGIF Appendix: Forecast of Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30

Projected farebox revenue derived from valuation report

Note: These projections were derived from valuation report by C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Systra MVA (Thailand), except for FY 20/21F was based on BTSC. FY 13/14A, farebox revenue was for the full year of FY 13/14. FY29/30F (1 Apr 29 – 4 Dec 29), farebox revenue growth was prorated to the full year.


Forecast of Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30

5,6

77

5,8

74

6,3

97

6,6

36

6,8

21

6,9

62

6,8

14

4,9

45

8,1

31

8,7

61

9,4

52

10

,20

4

10

,77

9

11

,31

7

11

,87

9

12

,82

3

9,0

08

3.5% 8.9% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1%

-2.1% -27.4%

64.4%

7.8% 7.9% 7.9% 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% 7.9% 3.4%

Forecasted farebox revenue Farebox revenue growth (%YoY)

3,3

53

25

BTSGIF Appendix: Projected Net Cashflow until FY 29/30

Actual net cashflow

Note: Net cashflow has deducted additional investment costs for the construction and improvement of S4 and S6 stations. These projections were derived from valuation report by C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Systra MVA (Thailand) and Infra Asia (Thailand) Ltd, except for FY 20/21F was based on BTSC. FY29/30F (1 Apr 29 – 4 Dec 29), net Cashflow growth was prorated to the full year.


Forecast of Net Farebox Revenue until FY 29/30

Projected net cashflow derived from valuation report

3,7

74

3,9

57

4,4

75

4,5

43

4,6

96

4,6

03

4,7

58

2,7

19

5,5

77

6,0

57

6,8

77

7,5

81

8,0

79

8,6

20

9,2

01

10

,08

5

7,1

06

4.9% 13.1% 1.5% 3.4% -2.0% 3.4%

-42.9%

105.1%

8.6% 13.5% 10.2% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 9.6% 3.7%

Forecasted net cashflow Net cashflow growth (%YoY)

26

BTSGIF Appendix: Costs and additional investment projection

Key costs guidance

Costs and Additional Investment Projection

Sources: Estimated based on valuation report from C.I.T. Appraisal Co., Ltd. (CIT) which the forecast and assumptions were based on Infra Asia (Thailand) Ltd.’s report and updated CAPEX and additional investment from BTSC. Except for FY 20/21 was based on BTSC.

Unit: THB mn

*Maintenance expenses mainly composed of Siemens lump-sum contracts for current and new coming 3 trains, expected THB 443mn p.a. (avg on a smooth basis) and the non-Siemens lump-sum contract (in-house P&C maintenance).

Source: Estimated base on Infra Asia forecast and updated CAPEX and additional investment from BTSC. Except FY 20/21 total costs were based on BTSC.

Normalised guidance p.a. (THB mn) from FY 20/21 to FY 28/29 (9 years)

% of total

OPEX 2,360 90%

Maintenance expenses* 839 32% Staff cost 742 28% Utilities expense 514 20% Others 265 10%

CAPEX 178 7%

Others 177 7%

Rolling stocks 1 0%

Additional Investment 72 3%

Total costs and additional investment 2,610 100%


Costs and Additional Investment Projection

33 40 282 130 210 30 - - - - - - - - - 251 150 251 150 84

161

- 75 207 220 83 171 207 220

83 171 424 143 130 185 169 162

164 162 209 225 196 119

1,6

20

1,7

10

1,7

02

1,7

27

1,8

04

1,7

10

1,7

02

1,7

27

1,8

04

1,8

51

1,7

12

1,8

14

2,2

38

2,3

25

2,3

83

2,4

59

2,5

39

2,4

88

2,4

54

2,5

42

1,7

82

1,696 1,917 1,922 2,093 2,125

1,917 1,922 2,093 2,125

2,359 2,056

2,226 2,553 2,704 2,576 2,623 2,701 2,697 2,678 2,738

1,901

OPEX CAPEX (others) CAPEX (rolling stocks) Additional Investment


Thank you

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