Transport’s Influence on Demography

Tony Fransos

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Demographic and Land Use Inputs

Different forecasts from high quality demographersParsing demographic changesAttempts to amend demography = EPIC FAILThe Vibe : New Infrastructure increases valueThe Hunch: Infrastructure causes population/employment increase

Totally Painful

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Objectives

Try to identify how strong the influence isTry to identify ways to model the influence in our models.

Not in a LUTI way, keeping Land use out of our 4-Step gemsAim to find a way to judge uncertainty in forecasts

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Demographic Issues

Models for PlanningWhole cities or regionsAggregate measures of performance

Models for InfrastructureSpecific corridorsParticular facilities

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Exogenous InputsEconomic

Value of TimeFuel PricePT FareToll Charges

Socio-politicalSpecial Generators

DemographyPopulationEmployment

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Uncertainty and Sensitivity

Mostly easyBut not Population and Employment

Depends on Size of the PieAnd the way it’s distributed

Seldom tested meaningfully

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Our Hunch

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Our Hunch

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The Mechanism

DISTRIBUTION

Mode Choice

Route Choice

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Influence on PopulationAffordabilityAccessibility

Especially to jobsBUT

Close to familyClose to entertainmentClose to UniDownsizing

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Influence on Price of Property

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Natural Growth – 2006 to 2011

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Interstate Migration 2006 to 2011

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International Migration – 2006 to 2011

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Influence on Business/Work PlacesLow CostsAccessibility

Especially to other businessesClose to Transport Facilities

Especially Transport and Logistics Industry

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Decisions to Model

BusinessLow property costAccessibility - Close to transport facilitiesClose to other businesses

PeopleNatureBabies in locations of child bearing womenAge n+1 = Age n - deaths

MigrationAffordabilityClose to family/Similar PeopleClose to workClose to schoolsClose to transport facilities

Coming of agers – To .. like ... Sick locations, manEmpty nesters Become grey nomads

Never leave home

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Sydney Suburbs Employment 2016

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Sydney Suburbs Population 2016

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What still needs to be doneProduce some comparisons of forecastsMake the modelling method more rigourousRemember that we’re not replacing expert forecasts

this is an exercise in rationalising our experts’ forecasts of population

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Summary and ConclusionThis is still all back of the envelopeIs aimed at transport understanding of modelling inputs and outputsWill never replace proper demographic forecasting