Building capacity to adapt to climate change in communities engaged in small-scale fishing and
aquaculture Edward H. Allison
www.marinalab.org
Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation, ECCWO-W4 June 1st 2018, Washington DC
Outline 1. Climate change research: from impacts to responses
2. Key principles: from vulnerability assessments to adaptation actions
3. What is adaptive capacity and how do you measure it?
4. Assessing the outcomes of adaptation actions: from principles to indicators (workshop outcomes)
Allison & Bassett (2015) Climate change in the oceans: human impacts and responses Science
IPCC 5th Assessment: Sectors of the ‘blue economy’ that are based on living marine resources are all predicted to be negatively impacted under anthropogenic GEC
1: A changing ocean: from impacts to responses
Engaging citizens in climate action: “Fear won’t do it”
(O’Neill & Nicholsen-Cole, 2009. Sci. Comm. 30(3)
“non-threatening images that relate to every-day emotions and concerns tend to be the most engaging”
Change in production potential of fish (%) by 2055, relative to 2005 values
Cheung et al 2010 Global Change Biol.
Effects on: Impacts on:
Production Ecology
Fishing & Aquaculture operations
Communities Livelihoods
Species composition Production & yield Distribution Diseases Coral bleaching Calcification
Anthopogenic climate change
Ocean currents
ENSO
Sea level rise
Rainfall
River flows
Lake levels
Thermal structure
Storm Severity
Storm frequency
Acidification
Safety & efficiency Infrastructure
Loss/damage to assets Risk to health & life Displacement & conflict
Wider society & Economy
Adaptation & mitigation costs Market impacts Water allocation
CC impacts on fisheries and aquaculture
Badjeck, Allison, Halls & Dulvy 2010 Marine Policy
Coral bleaching
Seawater warming and its implications for fisheries and aquaculture: increased risks from disease?
e.g. PSP agent Alexandrium catenella in Puget Sound (Moore et al., 2008)
Key concepts: vulnerability and resilience
“Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence to capacity to adapt” (Adger, 2006) "Resilience" as applied to ecosystems, or to integrated systems of people and the natural environment, has three defining characteristics: •The amount of change the system can undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure •The degree to which the system is capable of self-organization •The ability to build and increase the capacity for learning and adaptation (Source: www.resalliance.org)
Vulnerability (or resilience) of what (or whom) to what?
• Vulnerability of places – low-lying coasts, enclosed seas, deltas, coral reefs, SIDS, LDCs
• Vulnerability of economic activities – agriculture, fishing, tourism, transport, habitation etc.
• Vulnerability of people – individuals, social groups, households, communities, provinces, nations
• Vulnerability to particular stressors/hazards: natural disasters, ENSO events, sea level rise, global environmental change, change in general
EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which countries
are exposed to predicted climate
change
SENSITIVITY Degree to which
economies & people are likely to be
affected by fishery-related changes
POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking
into account planned adaptation
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Abilities and resources to cope with
climate-related changes
VULNERABILITY
How vulnerable are different nations to potential climate change impacts on their fisheries sector?
(Allison et al. 2009 Fish & Fisheries)
V = E + S + 1/ AC
Moderate High No data
Low Very low
Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change on the fisheries sector under scenario SRES B2. (Allison et al 2009 Fish and Fisheries)
Where in the world might fisheries be most impacted by climate change, countries most seriously affected by those impacts, and least able to deal with the economic and social consequences?
How vulnerable is Vietnam’s aquaculture sector to climate change?
- Catfish (swai) farming industry vulnerable to freshwater flooding and saline water intrusion from sea level rise
- Shrimp industry resilient to salinity change but vulnerable to stock losses from flooding
Badjeck et al., 2012. WorldFish Center
Climate-related changes in capture fisheries potential affects populations most dependent on fish and most vulnerable to micronutrient deficiencies
Golden et al., 2016. Fall in fish catch threatens human health Nature 534: 317-320
Vulnerability analysis needs: Clear aims: vulnerability of who/what to what stressor(s)?) Clear understanding of impact pathways Clear conceptualization: defined frameworks Good indicators – theoretical and empirically tested Strong stakeholder engagement Appropriate communication and discussion of findings Clear recommendations for adaptation action
Linking vulnerability analysis to adaptation: the technocratic vision
Vulnerability analysis
•Climate exposure model, 2050 & 2100 time steps; IPCC scenarios
•Current values of sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Targeted adaptation planning
•National & sub-national plans of adaptation
•Sectoral plans •Adaptation cost-
benefit analysis
Prioritized adaptation actions
•Reduce risk exposure
•Reduce sensitivity • Increase adaptive
capacity
The messy reality: Planning cycles use shorter time horizons, action is therefore often deferred Society will probably change more than climate by 2050 or 2100 Adaptation actions respond to perception of thresholds and to multiple stressors, not distant predicted threats Adaptation actions are often reactiveautonomous and contingent on political process, not rigorous cost-benefit analysis
3. What is adaptive capacity and how do you build it? Whitney et al 2017 Ecol Soc
Components of adaptive capacity (Cinner et al, 2018, Nature Climate Change)
What to adapt?
Bio-physical system Habitat Water quality Species
Social and Economic System Employment Market Governance
Scale Local Regional National Global
How to adapt?
Drawing on Capital Human Social Natural Physical
Financial
Approaches Autonomous Planned Flexible
Mandated
Responses Social Economic Technical
Who adapts? Individuals Groups Government
Farmers Traders Processors Retailers Consumers
Firms Communities Producer orgs
Regulatory bodies Advisory services
Adaptation Process
(Allison et al., 2011a)
How have fishing communities and economies adapted to variability?
• Mobility and migration (e.g. artisanal fishers in Peru and West Africa)
• Household livelihood diversification; macro-economic diversification
• Acceptance of income & profit variability (multi-year planning); psychological preparedness
• Building substitutable capital assets – human, social, financial
Badjeck et al 2009 Climatic Change; Badjeck et al 2010 Marine Policy
Responding to global climate change impacts in upwelling systems: reducing vulnerability
Reduce exposure to climate
hazards
• Vessel tie-up schemes
• Relocation • Seasonal weather
forecasts • Early quota-setting
Reduce sensitivity
• Reduce fishing
pressure and other stressors on fish populations and ecosystems
• Diversify livelihoods and economies
• Diversify diets
Increase adaptive capacity
• Better weather forecasting
• Improved environmental monitoring and surveillance systems
• Form associations, networks, societies for risk-sharing
• Index-linked insurance
Exposure + Sensitivity = Potential Impacts (IPCC, 2001; 2007) Potential Impacts + Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability
Adapting aquaculture systems to change: a farm level view
Reduce exposure to climate
hazards
• Support conservation of natural sea defenses
• Raise pond dykes • Upgrade pumps and
sluices • Relocate
Reduce sensitivity
• Farm more tolerant species
• Reduce dependence on wild-caught seed
• Reduce dependence on fishmeal and fish oil feeds
• Diversify product range • Diversify livelihoods
Increase adaptive capacity
• Better weather forecasting
• Improved disease surveillance systems
• Form associations, networks, societies
• Insurance • Savings
Exposure + Sensitivity = Potential Impacts (IPCC, 2001)
Potential Impacts + Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability
Measuring adaptive capacity Indicators and indices are used to measure and monitor change in complex systems Key principles for indicator choice:
– Specific – Measurable (and also reliable, comparable and
contextually appropriate) – Achievable (and also cost effective) – Relevant – Time-bound (and also sensitive).
A practice-orientated adaptation research agenda...
•What shapes people’s decisions to adapt? •How do you measure adaptive capacity? •How do you build adaptive capacity? •What adaptation actions have already taken place in fisheries and aquaculture systems? •How does the evolving coastal governance regime enable or constrain adaptation to environmental change?
