Building Industry Association

Economic Update

Rick Harper, Ph.D.UWF Office of Economic Development and Engagement

January 12, 2012

Economic Drivers in the National Picture• Tepid economic growth (New normal, debt overhang)

• Job weakness continues (Hollowing out of middle class)

• Housing market weak (Need formation of new households)

• Monetary policy (Does Fed-bashing solve fiscal problems?)

• Fiscal policy (short run vs. long term)

• Energy prices / inflation (oil $100+, gold, commodity inflation)

• Dollar / inflation ($ sideways, inflation expectations anchored)

• Eurozone problems (austerity paralysis, recession)

• Growth moderates elsewhere (SE Asia good, BRICs w/upside)

National Outlook 2012:•Housing purchase prices more affordable

•Economic activity slightly above pre-recession levels

•Economic growth trajectory suffering from debt overhang

•Unemployment flat, well above 8% by election time

•Residential real estate market recovery awaits economic recovery

•10 year Treasury yield at historic low, yield wobbles with continued economic uncertainty, bond market boom over

•Large banks prosper, community banks slowly improve

•Budget crisis continues until economy resumes strong growth

•Health care cost trajectory unsustainable

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000Ja

n-00

Jun-

00N

ov-0

0Ap

r-01

Sep-

01Fe

b-02

Jul-0

2D

ec-0

2M

ay-0

3O

ct-0

3M

ar-0

4Au

g-04

Jan-

05Ju

n-05

Nov

-05

Apr-

06Se

p-06

Feb-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug-

09Ja

n-10

Jun-

10N

ov-1

0Ap

r-11

Sep-

11

Okaloosa Nonfarm Employment, Jan 2000 - Nov 2011 (s.a.)

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000Ja

n-00

Jun-

00N

ov-0

0Ap

r-01

Sep-

01Fe

b-02

Jul-0

2D

ec-0

2M

ay-0

3O

ct-0

3M

ar-0

4Au

g-04

Jan-

05Ju

n-05

Nov

-05

Apr-

06Se

p-06

Feb-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug-

09Ja

n-10

Jun-

10N

ov-1

0Ap

r-11

Sep-

11

Walton Nonfarm Employment, Jan 2000 - Nov 2011 (s.a.)

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000Ja

n-00

Jun-

00N

ov-0

0Ap

r-01

Sep-

01Fe

b-02

Jul-0

2D

ec-0

2M

ay-0

3O

ct-0

3M

ar-0

4Au

g-04

Jan-

05Ju

n-05

Nov

-05

Apr-

06Se

p-06

Feb-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug-

09Ja

n-10

Jun-

10N

ov-1

0Ap

r-11

Sep-

11

Bay Nonfarm Employment, Jan 2000 - Nov 2011 (s.a.)

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

190,000

195,000

200,000

205,000

210,000

Jan-

00Ju

n-00

Nov

-00

Apr-

01Se

p-01

Feb-

02Ju

l-02

Dec

-02

May

-03

Oct

-03

Mar

-04

Aug-

04Ja

n-05

Jun-

05N

ov-0

5Ap

r-06

Sep-

06Fe

b-07

Jul-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ay-0

8O

ct-0

8M

ar-0

9Au

g-09

Jan-

10Ju

n-10

Nov

-10

Apr-

11Se

p-11

Pensacola Nonfarm Employment, Jan 2000 - Nov 2011 (s.a.)

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

350Ja

n-00

Jun-

00N

ov-0

0Ap

r-01

Sep-

01Fe

b-02

Jul-0

2D

ec-0

2M

ay-0

3O

ct-0

3M

ar-0

4Au

g-04

Jan-

05Ju

n-05

Nov

-05

Apr-

06Se

p-06

Feb-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug-

09Ja

n-10

Jun-

10N

ov-1

0Ap

r-11

Sep-

11

Mill

ions

of d

olla

rs p

er m

onth

Okaloosa County Total Taxable Retail Sales, 1/00 - 10/11

30

40

50

60

70

80

90Ja

n-00

Jun-

00N

ov-0

0Ap

r-01

Sep-

01Fe

b-02

Jul-0

2D

ec-0

2M

ay-0

3O

ct-0

3M

ar-0

4Au

g-04

Jan-

05Ju

n-05

Nov

-05

Apr-

06Se

p-06

Feb-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug-

09Ja

n-10

Jun-

10N

ov-1

0Ap

r-11

Sep-

11

Mill

ions

of d

olla

rs p

er m

onth

Okaloosa County Taxable Retail Sales in Tourism, 1/00 - 10/11, s.a.

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$160,000,000

2000

M01

2000

M06

2000

M11

2001

M04

2001

M09

2002

M02

2002

M07

2002

M12

2003

M05

2003

M10

2004

M03

2004

M08

2005

M01

2005

M06

2005

M11

2006

M04

2006

M09

2007

M02

2007

M07

2007

M12

2008

M05

2008

M10

2009

M03

2009

M08

2010

M01

2010

M06

2010

M11

2011

M04

2011

M09

Dol

lars

per

mon

thOkaloosa: Tourism-related Taxable Retail Sales, 1/00 - 10/11

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%JA

N 2

000

MAY

200

0SE

P 20

00JA

N 2

001

MAY

200

1SE

P 20

01JA

N 2

002

MAY

200

2SE

P 20

02JA

N 2

003

MAY

200

3SE

P 20

03JA

N 2

004

MAY

200

4SE

P 20

04JA

N 2

005

MAY

200

5SE

P 20

05JA

N 2

006

MAY

200

6SE

P 20

06JA

N 2

007

MAY

200

7SE

P 20

07JA

N 2

008

MAY

200

8SE

P 20

08JA

N 2

009

MAY

200

9SE

P 20

09JA

N 2

010

MAY

201

0SE

P 20

10JA

N 2

011

MAY

201

1

Total Employment, Year 2000 = 100%, January 2000 - August 2011

Florida 4 NWFL MSA's

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%JA

N 2

000

MAY

200

0SE

P 20

00JA

N 2

001

MAY

200

1SE

P 20

01JA

N 2

002

MAY

200

2SE

P 20

02JA

N 2

003

MAY

200

3SE

P 20

03JA

N 2

004

MAY

200

4SE

P 20

04JA

N 2

005

MAY

200

5SE

P 20

05JA

N 2

006

MAY

200

6SE

P 20

06JA

N 2

007

MAY

200

7SE

P 20

07JA

N 2

008

MAY

200

8SE

P 20

08JA

N 2

009

MAY

200

9SE

P 20

09JA

N 2

010

MAY

201

0SE

P 20

10JA

N 2

011

MAY

201

1

Total Employment, Year 2000 = 100%, January 2000 - August 2011

Pensacola Fort Walton Panama City Tallahassee Mobile Florida

Sector Jobs Earnings(K) Jobs %Earnings % EPW(K) FL jobs FL EPWGovernment 311,692 $16,235,632 43% 52% $52 19% $54Residents` Outside Income 126,628 $4,218,403 17% 13% $33 29% $41Services 98,934 $3,935,717 14% 13% $40 19% $43Visitors 67,502 $1,913,256 9% 6% $28 11% $36Finance 37,738 $1,534,707 5% 5% $41 5% $51Exogenous Investment 24,181 $990,615 3% 3% $41 5% $48Manufacturing 22,641 $1,145,953 3% 4% $51 4% $56All Other 13,947 $650,092 2% 2% $47 4% $54Agriculture 10,016 $262,629 1% 1% $26 1% $33Construction 6,126 $243,983 1% 1% $40 1% $44Mining 5,766 $215,151 1% 1% $37 0% $45

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.3

Economic Base for 16 County Tallahassee – Pensacola region

SOC CodeDescription 2011 Jobs2016 Jobs Growth Growth %2011 Avg Hourly Earnings41-9022 Real estate sales agents 12,310 14,526 2,216 18% $9.3735-3021 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food14,652 16,519 1,867 13% $8.4311-9199 Managers, all other 8,470 9,884 1,414 17% $16.1911-9141 Property, real estate, and community association managers7,639 8,999 1,360 18% $9.8941-2031 Retail salespersons 18,183 19,490 1,307 7% $12.0437-2011 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners10,348 11,548 1,200 12% $9.5435-3031 Waiters and waitresses 14,798 15,994 1,196 8% $9.2813-2052 Personal financial advisors 4,113 5,301 1,188 29% $17.6513-1111 Management analysts 8,952 10,049 1,097 12% $25.2039-9011 Child care workers 9,540 10,562 1,022 11% $7.9829-1111 Registered nurses 10,948 11,944 996 9% $25.8643-3031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 10,076 11,041 965 10% $13.8443-4051 Customer service representatives 6,931 7,878 947 14% $12.4141-2011 Cashiers, except gaming 17,924 18,828 904 5% $8.7241-3031 Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents3,145 4,042 897 29% $18.9313-2011 Accountants and auditors 7,581 8,460 879 12% $22.6437-2012 Maids and housekeeping cleaners 9,347 10,192 845 9% $8.2443-9061 Office clerks, general 10,428 11,231 803 8% $11.2225-3099 Teachers and instructors, all other 6,445 7,218 773 12% $18.5931-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 6,074 6,842 768 13% $10.5743-5081 Stock clerks and order fillers 10,608 11,293 685 6% $10.2341-9021 Real estate brokers 3,810 4,479 669 18% $10.4137-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers3,361 3,992 631 19% $8.8543-6011 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 7,804 8,417 613 8% $17.0325-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 5,738 6,346 608 11% $31.02

SOC CodeDescription 2011 Jobs2016 Jobs Change% Change2011 Avg Hourly Earnings55-9999 Military Occupations 33,272 33,498 226 1% $28.1141-2031 Retail salespersons 18,183 19,490 1,307 7% $12.0441-2011 Cashiers, except gaming 17,924 18,828 904 5% $8.7235-3031 Waiters and waitresses 14,798 15,994 1,196 8% $9.2835-3021 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food14,652 16,519 1,867 13% $8.4341-9022 Real estate sales agents 12,310 14,526 2,216 18% $9.3743-6014 Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 11,796 12,290 494 4% $13.0129-1111 Registered nurses 10,948 11,944 996 9% $25.8643-5081 Stock clerks and order fillers 10,608 11,293 685 6% $10.2343-9061 Office clerks, general 10,428 11,231 803 8% $11.2237-2011 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners10,348 11,548 1,200 12% $9.5443-3031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 10,076 11,041 965 10% $13.8439-9011 Child care workers 9,540 10,562 1,022 11% $7.9837-2012 Maids and housekeeping cleaners 9,347 10,192 845 9% $8.2413-1111 Management analysts 8,952 10,049 1,097 12% $25.2041-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 8,885 9,216 331 4% $15.3111-9199 Managers, all other 8,470 9,884 1,414 17% $16.1943-6011 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 7,804 8,417 613 8% $17.0311-9141 Property, real estate, and community association managers7,639 8,999 1,360 18% $9.8913-2011 Accountants and auditors 7,581 8,460 879 12% $22.6433-3012 Correctional officers and jailers 7,533 7,897 364 5% $17.6025-1099 Postsecondary teachers 7,241 7,684 443 6% $48.9343-4051 Customer service representatives 6,931 7,878 947 14% $12.4113-1199 Business operation specialists, all other 6,597 6,835 238 4% $27.0725-3099 Teachers and instructors, all other 6,445 7,218 773 12% $18.5911-9012 Farmers and ranchers 6,250 6,540 290 5% $9.27

Age 2011 Population2016 Population Change % Chg % Chg for FLUnder 5 years 82,724 88,323 5,599 7% 17%5 to 9 years 81,119 82,163 1,044 1% 3%10 to 14 years 81,634 83,275 1,641 2% 0%15 to 19 years 100,468 96,767 (3,701) -4% -3%20 to 24 years 122,317 131,308 8,991 7% 4%25 to 29 years 97,597 95,618 (1,979) -2% 13%30 to 34 years 87,465 93,007 5,542 6% 7%35 to 39 years 81,092 87,249 6,157 8% 4%40 to 44 years 85,670 79,667 (6,003) -7% -7%45 to 49 years 99,122 87,366 (11,756) -12% -6%50 to 54 years 102,608 98,348 (4,260) -4% 2%55 to 59 years 91,698 102,879 11,181 12% 13%60 to 64 years 82,168 91,079 8,911 11% 11%65 to 69 years 62,863 78,033 15,170 24% 19%70 to 74 years 46,519 56,233 9,714 21% 18%75 to 79 years 34,172 39,755 5,583 16% 13%80 to 84 years 24,358 27,204 2,846 12% 4%85 years and over 20,990 25,542 4,552 22% 18%Total 1,384,584 1,443,815 59,231 4%Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.3

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%Ja

n 19

97Ju

l 199

7Ja

n 19

98Ju

l 199

8Ja

n 19

99Ju

l 199

9Ja

n 20

00Ju

l 200

0Ja

n 20

01Ju

l 200

1Ja

n 20

02Ju

l 200

2Ja

n 20

03Ju

l 200

3Ja

n 20

04Ju

l 200

4Ja

n 20

05Ju

l 200

5Ja

n 20

06Ju

l 200

6Ja

n 20

07Ju

l 200

7Ja

n 20

08Ju

l 200

8Ja

n 20

09Ju

l 200

9Ja

n 20

10Ju

l 201

0Ja

n 20

11Ju

l 201

1

Zillow Middle Tier Prices as Percent of 1997 Prices: FL and 4 Metros

Florida FWB PC PNS TAL

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Perc

ent

Non-Current Loans to Loans Outstanding

Region Florida Banks U.S. Banks

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Perc

ent

Return On Assets

Region Florida U.S. Banks

Building Industry Association

Economic Update

Questions?

Rick Harper, Ph.D.UWF Office of Economic Development and Engagement

January 12, 2012