Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignment models for
understanding spa5al demands
The future of na,onal infrastructure systems and economic prosperity Cambridge, UK. Mar 27-‐28th, 2014 Sco7 Thacker ITRC WS2: Understanding the current and future risks of infrastructure failure Raghav Pant, Jim Hall, ScoA Kelly, Pete Tyler, David Alderson, Stuart Barr,
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Introduc5on: Interdependent infrastructure networks
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Introduc5on: Extreme weather impacts
An esGmated £100m of damage has been caused to the railway in this winter's storms The Guardian report (Feb. 11, 2014)
• 350,000 people without water for
up to 17 days (Mythe) • 40,000 people without power for
24hrs • Near miss (Waltham substaGon)
500,000 people • Damages approx. £3.5 Billion
2007 summer floods
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Methods: Understanding the current and future risks of infrastructure failure
Methodological development: • Vulnerability analysis • Risk analysis
Components of the analysis: • Network models • Interdependencies • Direct customer demands • Indirect customer demands
To facilitate: • DerivaGon of customer disrupGons under
different hazard events • Economic disrup,ons (next talk!) • Current and future scenarios
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Methods: Assembling network data
• Great Britain’s Integrated electricity network • Hierarchical – bridging scales • 180,000 nodes
Transmission (400kV, 275kV, 132kV)
Sub-‐transmission (132kV, 33kV)
DistribuGon (33kV, 11kV, 415V)
Large generaGon* (Nuclear, Coal, Gas)
Medium generaGon* (Gas, Wind)
Small generaGon* (Wind, Biomass, Oil)
Mul5ple infrastructure types: • Electricity • Gas • Liquid fuels • Railways • Roads • Airports • Ports • Water towers • Water pumping staGons • Sewage treatment works • Solid waste faciliGes • Telecom masts
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Methods: Accoun;ng for infrastructure interdependencies
Electricity dependency on Gas -‐ 1) Large power staGons @ transmission level -‐ 2) Medium power staGons @ 132kV level
Gas dependency on electricity (selected) -‐ 3) LNG @ 132kV level -‐ 4) Compressors at 33kV level
Gas transmission
Electricity transmission
Electricity sub-‐transmission
Electricity distribuGon
1 2
3
4
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Methods: Incorpora;ng customer demands
Direct customer demands • Usage staGsGcs where available • Networks are more complicated..
• Customer assignment models: – capacity constrained resource allocaGon model
• Network effects
Indirect customer demands on Great Britain’s electricity network
Electricity customers
Sewage treatment Telecom masts Water towers
Railways Airports Ports
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Applica5ons: Infrastructure cri;cality hotspots
ITRC Infrastructure Cri5cality Hotspot Analysis An infrastructure cri,cality hotspot is a geographical loca,on where there is a concentra,on of cri,cal infrastructure, measured according to number of customers directly or indirectly dependent on the infrastructures in that loca,on
Composite criGcality map
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Applica5ons: Interdependency impacts
Electricity suppor5ng customers from other sectors: • Mapping indirectly connected customers
(previous slides)
• Integrated electricity network • 99% of transmission network (636) • 8% of distribu,on assets (13,348)
Electricity dependency mul5plier ra5o = • Ra,o of non-‐electricity to electricity customers
reliant on a given asset
For Great Britain’s electricity transmission assets
Around (70%) of the major electricity assets could indirectly affect, if they were to fail, at least three ,mes as many customers as they directly serve
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Applica5ons: Vulnerability to extreme flooding – Thames catchment example
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Num
ber o
f dom
es5c customers (million)
Infrastructure Customers at Risk of Disrup5on due to Flooding of the Thames Catchment
Indirect Risk
Direct and indirect risk
Direct risk
Environment Agency, NAFRA flood hazard maps: significant, moderate, low probability • Vulnerability of customers (potenGal customer disrupGons)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
101
111
121
131
141
151
161
171
181
191
201
211
221
231
241
251
261
271
281
291
301
311
321
331
341
351
361
371
381
391
401
411
421
431
441
451
461
471
481
491
501
511
521
531
541
551
561
571
581
591
601
611
621
631
641
Total infrastructure custom
ers
Millions
Electricity transmission asset ID
electricity Waste water treatment works water towers telecom masts railway staGons airports
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Applica5ons: Adapta;on planning – methodology in development
1. IdenGfy assets in probabilisGc flood zones 2. Rank assets based on potenGal economic impacts 3. Standardised costs for protecGng assets of a given type 4. Explore cost benefit of installing protecGon measures for that asset
against consequences of a flood related failure
Large poten5al impacts
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Conclusions: Main points to take from the presenta;on
Methods • Importance in developing detailed network models • Explicitly capturing interdependencies • Direct and Indirect customer demands mapped to assets • Facilitates economic impacts – coming next!
Applica5ons • Infrastructure criGcality hotspots • Insights into interdependencies • Vulnerability to extreme events • AdaptaGon planning
Building interdependent infrastructure networks and customer assignments models for understanding spa5al demands
Conclusions: Any Ques;ons?
Sco7 Thacker -‐ [email protected]
For further informaGon: www.itrc.org.uk
ITRC WS2: Understanding the current and future risks of infrastructure failure Raghav Pant, Jim Hall, ScoZ Kelly, Pete Tyler, David Alderson, Stuart Barr