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Development: shifting gears? London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017
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Page 1: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Development: shifting gears? London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 2: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004
Page 3: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

The report 02

Key findings 03

Central London submarket snapshots 04

Emerging submarket snapshots 12

Central London Crane Survey results 15

Emerging submarkets Crane Survey results 19

Outlook 20

Supply & demand 21

Construction cost and workload sentiment survey 23

Contacts 26

Contents

For the full list of developments featured in this research and access to a range of ways to view the data, please visit: www.deloitte.co.uk/cranesurvey

01

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 4: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

The report

What?A report which measures the volume of office development taking place across central London and emerging London submarkets.

Where?London, covering the central office markets: City, West End, Docklands, King’s Cross, Midtown, Paddington and Southbank, and emerging submarkets: Vauxhall-Nine Elms-Battersea, Stratford and White City.

Who?Developers building new offices or undertaking significant office refurbishment of 10,000 sq ft +.

When?The survey covers the period from 1 October 2016 to 31 March 2017.

How?Our team of researchers have walked every street in central London and emerging London submarkets to monitor office construction. Our field research is then verified with direct industry links and in-house property experts.

02

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 5: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Key findings

Central London Crane Survey results

Office construction is down by 6% over the past six months to 13.9m sq ft

Above average volume of new space started totalling 3.1m sq ft across 28 schemes

New-builds account for 50% of new starts

43% of space under construction is already let

3.9m sq ft completed over the past six months, the highest in a single survey since 2004

Volume of completed space already let up 93% on previous survey

Outlook

Delivery of new space in 2017 expected to be at the highest level since 2003

Rising vacancy rates likely to continue as secondhand space increases

Brexit countdown will force some to assess property requirements

Demolition levels up 11% on 12 months ago indicate more construction starts imminent

Construction costs expected to remain high

Political and economic uncertainty to play heavy on occupier demand

03

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 6: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Central London submarket snapshotsCentral London overview

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

Central London office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2016)

Today

10 year average

Lowest (2010)

43%let

0% 100%

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 13.9 million sq ft

Lowest5.9 million sq ft (2010)

Highest19.5 million sq ft (2002)

Financial

137,300 sq ft

14,004

12,527 sq ft

51

28

22

24%

76%

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

04

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 7: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

City office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2016)

Today

10 year average

Lowest (2010)

44%let

0% 100%

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 8.2 million sq ft

Lowest1.3 million sq ft (2010)

Highest8.8 million sq ft (2016)

Financial

181,547 sq ft

8,865

14,581 sq ft

26

10

8

25%

75%

0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Central London submarket snapshotsThe City

05

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 8: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

West End office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2011)

Today

10 year average

Lowest (2009)

33%let

0% 100%

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 1.2 million sq ft

Lowest0.7 million sq ft (2010)

Highest3.4 million sq ft (2007)

Professional

50,319 sq ft

1,102

7,864 sq ft

13

8

8

36%

64%

2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Central London submarket snapshotsWest End

06

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 9: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

Docklands office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2012)

10 year average

Today

Lowest (2010)

28%let

0% 100%

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 1.0 million sq ft

Lowest0 million sq ft (2014)

Highest7.4 million sq ft (2002)

Financial

476,500 sq ft

884

26,419 sq ft

1

1

0

28%

72%

0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Central London submarket snapshotsDocklands

07

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 10: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

King’s Cross office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2012)

10 year average

Today

Lowest (2014)

100%let

0% 100%

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 0.5 million sq ft

Lowest0 million sq ft (2011)

Highest0.8 million sq ft (2013)

TMT

168,333 sq ft

596

16,833 sq ft

4

2

0

0%

100%

0

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Central London submarket snapshotsKing’s Cross

08

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 11: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

Midtown office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2013)

Today

10 year average

Lowest (2010)

52%let

0% 100%

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 1.8 million sq ft

Lowest0.2 million sq ft (2010)

Highest2.1 million sq ft (2016)

Financial

131,286 sq ft

1,565

13,877 sq ft

8

8

4

26%

74%

0

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Central London submarket snapshotsMidtown

09

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 12: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

Paddington office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2006)

10 year average

Today

Lowest (2015)

0%let

0% 100%

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 0.4 million sq ft

Lowest0 million sq ft (2014)

Highest0.9 million sq ft (2002)

n/a

186,600 sq ft

366

15,900 sq ft

2

1

0

0%

100%

0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

Central London submarket snapshotsPaddington

10

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 13: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Number of new construction starts

New build vs Refurbishment

New build Refurbishment

Southbank office development pipeline

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Highest (2016)

Today

10 year average

Lowest (2015)

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Average size of a floor

Number of cycle spaces being built

Today 0.8 million sq ft

Lowest0 million sq ft (2010)

Highest1.6 million sq ft (2002)

Corporate

74,790 sq ft

626

8,661 sq ft

9

2

1

36%

64%

0

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002

33%let

0% 100%

Central London submarket snapshotsSouthbank

11

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 14: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

Vauxhall – Nine Elms – Battersea office development pipeline

Total amount under construction

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

82%let

0% 100%

255,265 sq ft

GovernmentToday

1.3 million sq ft

Emerging submarket snapshotsVauxhall – Nine Elms – Battersea

12

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 15: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

Stratford office development pipelineMillion sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Financial

Total amount under construction Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

100%let

0% 100%

390,800 sq ft

Today 0.8 million sq ft

Emerging submarket snapshotsStratford

13

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 16: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

White City office development pipelineMillion sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

Total amount under construction Which sector is currently taking most space?

Average size of a scheme

Total amount of space underconstruction which has been let

8%let

0% 100%

211,750 sq ft

TMTToday

0.8 million sq ft

Emerging submarket snapshotsWhite City

14

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 17: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Total activity dipsThe volume of office space under construction has fallen by 6% over the past six months to 13.9 million sq ft, the first drop in three years. Despite this, the current level of activity remains above the 10-year survey average of 9.9 million sq ft.

The dip in the total amount of space under construction suggests that the pace of new schemes starting has continued to slow. But while this may be the case in terms of the number of new starts (28 down from 40) it cannot be said for the volume. Over the past six months 3.2 million sq ft has started on site, a rise of 13% on the previous survey.

New-build boostThe large volume of new space started is a result of new-build developments rather than smaller refurbishment projects, which have become increasingly common over the past year or so. 14 of the new starts in this survey fall into this new-build category contributing 2.6 million sq ft, and pushing the average size of a new start up from 70,000 sq ft in our last survey to 113,000 sq ft. It is worth noting that this is largely as a result of the addition of 22 Bishopsgate to the survey, which accounts for 40% of the volume of new space started.

Central London Crane Survey results

Central London: Total volume under construction per survey

Million sq ft

Source: Deloitte Real Estate

0

5

10

15

20

2017

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2002

Q3

Central London: Volume of new starts per survey

Million sq ft

Source: Deloitte Real Estate

0

1

2

3

4

5

2017

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2012

Q3

201

2 Q

1 20

11 Q

320

11 Q

120

10 Q

320

10 Q

120

09 Q

320

09 Q

120

08 Q

320

08 Q

120

07 Q

320

07 Q

120

06 Q

320

06 Q

120

05 Q

320

05 Q

120

04 Q

320

04 Q

1 20

03 Q

320

03 Q

120

02 Q

3

Average volumeof new starts

15

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 18: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Rebalancing of activity across submarketsThe City continues to dominate construction activity across central London, but we are now seeing a greater balance of construction across the submarkets.

The City has seen 10 new schemes start construction this survey totalling over 1.9 million sq ft. Even though neither is a record, on both counts this is above the 10-year average. Nevertheless, with a number of large schemes completing, total construction across the City has decreased by 7% to 8.2 million sq ft over the past six months. This is the first such drop since 2014, albeit at that point the construction level was at only 4.2 million sq ft.

Elsewhere, too, the volume of activity has fallen. The greatest decrease was recorded in the West End. At 1.2 million sq ft this is 27% down on six months ago, and is the third consecutive drop in construction. This is despite the West End seeing the highest volume of new starts in two years totalling 0.5 million sq ft across eight new schemes. The drop in the volume of construction across the West End now means that overall activity is surpassed by its neighbouring submarket, Midtown.

Two submarkets registered an increase in overall construction activity. A 9% increase in volume in Midtown brings total construction up to over 1.8 million sq ft. Development in this market was boosted by eight new starts totalling 659,000 sq ft, two-thirds of which is new-build development. The Southbank also saw an increase, recording a 6% uptick in space under construction as a result of two new starts.

Central London: Total volume under construction by submarketMillion sq ft

1.0Docklands

0.8Southbank

0.5King’s Cross

1.2West End

0.4Paddington

1.8Midtown

8.2City

13.9 Total

Central London: Total office space under construction

Total sq ft u/c Let sq ft Available sq ft

City 8,169,595 -7% 3,594,325 1% 4,575,270 -13%

West End 1,207,650 -27% 399,250 -33% 808,400 -23%

Docklands 953,000 0% 264,000 0% 689,000 0%

King's Cross 505,000 -4% 505,000 -2% – 0%

Midtown 1,838,000 9% 960,000 6% 878,000 13%

Paddington 372,000 0% – 0% 372,000 0%

Southbank 822,689 6% 268,415 5% 554,274 6%

Total 13,867,934 -6% 5,990,990 -2% 7,876,944 -9%

Change since last survey

16

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 19: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Wave of new completionsThe new schemes in this survey have ensured that the total level of space under construction has remained high; the recorded dip in the total volume is largely due to the wave of completions over the past six months. Our research shows that 3.9 million sq ft completed in this survey period, the largest amount in a single survey since 2004, marginally surpassing the high in 2014.

The sheer volume of space to complete was no surprise, although it was exaggerated by a number of schemes’ completion dates slipping forward from our last survey. Nevertheless the surge in development activity highlighted in our Winter 2015 survey is now coming through into current completions, largely the speedier refurbishment projects.

In total 4.4 million sq ft of space completed across central London in 2016 exceeding the 2015 total of 3.1 million sq ft. This momentum has continued into the first quarter of 2017 with 2.6 million sq ft already completed. This equates to 59% of 2016’s total in a single quarter, and with a large volume of space scheduled to complete throughout the year, 2017 is on course to record the highest level of new space since 2003.

Central London: Total volume of space completed per survey

Million sq ft

Source: Deloitte Real Estate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2017

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2002

Q3

Resilient demand for new space Against a backdrop of political and economic uncertainty, leasing of new space has proved to be resilient at least amongst good quality and new office stock. So much so that 43% (6 million sq ft) of space under construction is already let. This is the highest percentage let since our Summer 2014 survey, which recorded 45% (5 million sq ft).

The recorded dip in the total volume is largely due to the wave of completions over the past six months.

17

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 20: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Central London: Percentage of pre-completion lettings space let by sector

NB: Figures are rounded up

Professional5%

Insurance2%Other

1%

Legal13%

Financial46%

TMT21%

Corporate13%

The latest data shows a notable rise in leasing activity in Midtown and Southbank, up with 6% and 5% increase in volume respectively on the previous survey. As a result of recent completions, volumes in the other submarkets saw a decrease or no change.

Of the 28 new schemes that have started in this survey, 10 have already achieved leasing successes, totalling 669,100 sq ft. An additional 607,000 sq ft of space has been let through eight deals on space that was already under construction.

Letting upOf the 3.9 million sq ft completed in this survey, 47% had already been let. While in percentage terms this is similar to our previous survey, the volume is near double the 1.9 million sq ft seen six months ago. The weight of completions this survey has recorded could have accelerated the rise in vacancy levels. Yet the high level of early leasing activity has softened the impact on the market somewhat, and may well have helped headline rents to remain stable towards the end of the 2016.

Financial sector commitment sustainedThe diversity amongst businesses leasing space has continued in this survey. The latest mix includes 40 occupiers across eight different sectors. Nevertheless, the financial sector accounts for the largest share of leased space under construction at 46% (2.7 million sq ft), up from 42% in our previous survey.

In contrast, the technology, media and telecom (TMT) sector has seen a decrease in share over the past six months from 33% to 21%. In volume terms this is 2.0 million sq ft down to 1.2 million sq ft. This fall is a result of a number of schemes with TMT let space completing in this survey. However, there is no suggestion that this sector is retracting in the current climate, in Q1 2017 the sector leased more space than the financial sector in the market generally.

The legal and corporate sectors have increased their leasing activity, both now with a 13% share, up from 9% and 10% respectively since our last survey.

Of the 3.9 million sq ft completed in this survey, 47% has been let prior to completion.

18

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 21: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

No new startsSix months on since we first published our coverage of three new submarkets: Vauxhall-Nine Elms-Battersea (VNEB), White City and Stratford, our research shows that other than ongoing construction activity, little has changed, with no new development starts recorded in these locations.

While this was no great surprise we do predict this to change over the course of 2017 as we continue to track schemes with imminent start dates.

Completions at White CityThere is currently 2.6 million sq ft of under construction, a fall of 10% on our previous survey. As no new starts have been recorded this is entirely as a result of completed space.

271,000 sq ft of space across two buildings in the White City submarket completed in Q1 2017, 41% of this space was let upon completion.

The year aheadOver the course of 2017 around 1.3 million sq ft is scheduled to complete with new firms moving into these areas. While the wider regeneration continues at pace, the launch of such a relatively large volume of new office space is a pivotal point in the development of these office locations. Should more occupier traction be gained throughout the year, this may well spur some developers to consider starting more speculative schemes.

Emerging submarkets Crane Survey results

Emerging submarkets: office development pipeline

Million sq ft

Completed u/c available u/c let

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

Emerging submarkets: Total office space under construction

Total sq ft u/c Let sq ft Available sq ft

VNEB 1,276,325 0% 1,051,000 0% 225,325 0%

Stratford 781,600 0% 781,600 0% – 0%

White City 556,000 -34% – 0% 556,000 -28%

Total 2,613,925 -10% 5,990,990 -4% 781,325 -22%

Change since last survey

19

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 22: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

• Overall construction levels have marginally dipped despite an above-average volume of new starts

• However, the fall inactivity is largely due to high levels of completions

• In the short-term, we expect the pace of completions to accelerate further, with 2017 seeing the highest volume since 2004

• Mitigating the impact of this supply somewhat, occupier demand for new space has remained resilient so far

• Nevertheless we recognise that businesses continue to face political and economic uncertainty as UK enters a general election and EU exit negotiations

• Looking further ahead, our pipeline for the next five years continues to record a significant volume of potential construction

• Demolition levels remain high at close to 8 million sq ft as more schemes are prepared for construction

• This is consistent with our survey of contractors, which predicts a rise in workloads and pricing over the next year

• Despite this, there has been some evidence of ‘revised thinking’ amongst developers, as a number of schemes are now earmarked for completion in later years.

Outlook

Central London: office development pipeline

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Emerging markets: office development pipeline

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 23: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

The forecast for development both under construction and proposed across 2017-21 totals around 39 million sq ft. Despite increasing our outlook through to 2021, the volume of space projected has increased only marginally. Our analysis continues to indicate that 2019 and 2020 will see high volumes of new space delivered.

In our Winter 2016 survey we highlighted a significant shift in the timings of future schemes. Whilst there has been less movement recorded by our latest research, there have nonetheless been a few further cases.

As a result of completion dates slipping on schemes due in 2016, the total volume for 2017 has increased to 8.0 million sq ft, setting it on course for the highest annual level to be delivered since 2003. A further shift in timings has seen a reduction in schemes in 2018, yet this drop in annual completions is expected to be short-lived. Development in 2019-20 has the potential to deliver the greatest volume of new space since the early 1990s.

Whilst some schemes in the outer years of the forecast are liable to change their delivery dates, the current development pipeline clearly indicates five years’ worth of completions which are in excess of the average level of Grade A take-up. It is uncertainty in relation to this future demand activity for both new and existing space that will continue to weigh heavy on developers and landlords alike as they plan ahead.

Supply & demand

Central London: office development pipeline forecast Million sq ft

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 24: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Central London: Office availabilty by grade

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Q1 20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007

Leasing activity across central London in 2016 unsurprisingly succumbed to the uncertainty with total lettings down 24% on the previous year. However, in the final quarter of the year take-up volumes were circa 3.6 million sq ft, a quarterly level not seen since 2015. Similarly Q1 2017 has seen some robust leasing, particularly with activity on Grade A space which accounted for over 1 million sq ft (44%).

Since our last survey, Article 50 has been triggered and the UK is on a path towards exiting the European Union in 2019. The negotiations due to begin following the snap UK general election in June will undoubtedly be a period in which businesses will need to prepare to operate in a new environment whether that is from a transactional base or personnel.

Whilst occupiers that require space will continue to be active, it is those businesses looking to optimise their footprints that may well impact the market the most. Should firms need to downsize there is a possibility of additional volumes of space being released onto the market at a time when availability is already increasing as a result of secondhand space and rising new supply. In 2016 availability levels jumped by 36% and that has risen by a further 19% in Q1 2017 alone.

A short-term shift in development timings could be interpreted as a result of the Brexit vote, however the potential for a further shift in the development pipeline in the long-term could still be on the cards should a mix of lower demand, weaker rental prospect and higher development costs materialise.

In 2016 availability levels jumped by 36% and that has risen by a further 19% in Q1 2017 alone.

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 25: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Construction costs are always at the forefront of a developer’s mind, this prompted us to carry out a bi-annual construction market survey that captures sentiment on price and workload in the UK construction market. Respondents to the survey are generally trade/subcontractors, with main contractors providing evidence on project preliminaries.

First stage contractors eye new business opportunitiesSix months ago, sentiment towards workload levels differed and seemed to be correlated to where a trade sat within the typical construction cycle. Early trades such as demolition and substructure were predicting a fall in workload over the following 12 months, whereas later trades such as finishes and services could still see significant work ahead of them. This is shown in the adjacent chart represented by the blue markers. This pattern is what we might have expected to see at the beginning of a general slowdown in construction.

However, the latest survey (as shown by the green markers) sees the majority of trades predicting a more consistent rise in workload. Early trade sentiment has increased significantly, whereas later trade’s view, whilst positive, is less buoyant. This correlates with the results of the latest Crane Survey which sees a high number of schemes either having completed or due to complete in 2017 which would affect the later trades. However a rise in future schemes at demolition or imminent start stage chimes with the sentiment of the early trades.

Construction cost and workload sentiment survey

Workload change sentiment for next 12 months by trade

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The latest survey sees the majority of trades predicting a more consistent rise in workload.

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 26: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Price change sentiment for next 12 months

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Tender prices expected to harden It is perhaps no surprise therefore that alongside the expectation of increased workload, even if it is more measured, the latest sentiment for tender prices suggests an increase on that anticipated six months ago. The adjacent chart shows the difference with not only the markers but with the two average lines.

The general trend among industry commentators around tender prices suggest that whilst continuing to increase, prices will do so at a reduced rate. Price increases in 2015 and 2016 were around 5-6%. For 2017 and 2018 commentators are anticipating increases of around 1-2%pa. Our sentiment survey suggests that this reduction in inflation may not be so sharp.

As the chart indicating price change sentiment demonstrates, the overall trend disguises a more significant movement in particular trades. Key observations in the latest results include:

• Structural steelwork, which increased prices by at least 10% in the past 12 months, mainly on the back of material price increases

• Brickwork, which also increased by around 10% in the past 12 months, is predicted to continue increasing significantly in the next 12 months, driven by a mix of both site labour and material price increases

• Finishing trades, such as partitioning, continue to anticipate increases over 10% in the next 12 months, mainly driven by site labour price pressures but also material price increases

• Building services, where price increases have been subdued compared with other trades over recent years, are now showing signs of more significant price growth.

Increasing construction costs remain a key concern for developers: the much expected reduction or at least slowdown in construction prices following the Brexit vote is looking more tenuous now than it did last summer, with construction workload levels defying expectations and remaining buoyant.

24

London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 27: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Is a gear shift in development likely? At face value, the decrease in the overall volume of space under construction could suggest that developers have slowed down since our previous survey, looking at the comparatively low number of new starts. The reality is, however, the current total is more a result of timing and arithmetic than developers holding off, as the high volume of completions outweighs the above average volume of new starts. This is a result of two years’ worth of elevated levels of construction, but what of the next five years?

Whilst we have seen the timing of a number of future schemes shift within our forecast period, we have still seen very few that have been cancelled, highlighting continued commitment to development. However, over the coming years developers will have to take into account additional factors above and beyond the usual supply and demand indicators. The impact of wider political decisions on both a developer’s own business as well as that of their prospective tenants will start to play out over the coming years (which may or may not influence a gear shift in the pace of development projects).

Despite this, businesses will continue to lease office space and as the workplace and the way in which we work evolves, new office and refurbished office space will continue to play a vital role in that evolution.

The current total is more a result of timing and arithmetic than developers holding off as the high volume of completions supersedes the above average volume of new starts.

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 28: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Contacts

Martin Laws Partner, Occupier Consulting020 7007 [email protected]

Jon MilwardPartner, Development020 7303 [email protected]

Neill Morrison Partner, Cost Consultancy 020 7007 [email protected]

John AdamsPartner, Planning 020 7303 [email protected]

Mike Cuthbert Partner, Construction Advisory 020 7303 [email protected]

Mike CracknellDirector, Construction Advisory020 7007 [email protected]

Shaun DawsonResearch Manager020 7303 [email protected]

Sally JonesTax Director020 7007 [email protected]

Philip Parnell Partner, Valuation 020 7303 [email protected]

For the full list of developments featured in this research and access to a range of ways to view the data, please visit: www.deloitte.co.uk/cranesurvey

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

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Notes

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 30: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

Notes

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London Office Crane Survey Summer 2017

Page 31: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004
Page 32: built Today 1.2 million sq ft Lowest 0.7 million sq ft 200 ighest 3.4 million sq ft (200) rofessional 50,319 sq ft 1,102 7,864 sq ft 13 8 8 36 64 2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2002 2003 2004

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Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL.

This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers on how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication.

© 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved.

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