Forecasting Page Views & Ad Impressions for Bullseye Ad Campaigns

David Feng

Statistical Analyst Intern

GEL, Trax

What is Bullseye?

• Cross-game advertising– A client’s ad campaign runs

exclusively on a selected game space for a set amount of time.

• Example– I want to advertise for a new

football game I created.– I feel that Madden players

would be interested in my game.

– I buy a Bullseye campaign on Madden NFL 09, since I am targetting Madden players.

Existing Bullseye Procedures

• Sales team has two options– Propose a predicted number of ad

impressions to the client (but how much?)

– Charge a flat rate on the Bullseye campaign (Halo 3 = Balls of Fury)

• Problems– Under-delivery: must compensate

client in some other way – make goods

– Over-delivery: lost opportunity for revenue

– Flat-rate pricing: lost opportunity for revenue on AAA games

Bullseye

Q1’07 Q2’07 Q3’07 Q4’07 Q1’08 Q2’08

eCPM (censored)

% of GS Revenue 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2%

The Bullseye Predictive Model

• Objective: To provide a more objective means for predicting the number of advertising impressions in a game space.

• 4 phasesI. Data-collection and processing

II. Predict number of page views for a game space 30 days, 60 days and 90 days in advance

III. Find the relationship between page views and advertising impressions

IV. Test validity of models and develop business rules

The Bullseye Predictive Model

• Objective: To provide a more objective means for predicting the number of advertising impressions in a game space.

• 4 phasesI. Data-collection and processing

II. Predict number of page views for a game space 30 days, 60 days and 90 days in advance

III. Find the relationship between page views and advertising impressions

IV. Test validity of models and develop business rules

I. Data Collection

• Gathered data on all games released from 1/1/06 to 5/31/08 using Trax– Data pulled in Mon-Sun increments

• 3782 games, ~2700-2800 after removing irrelevant games

• Computed lifecycle data for all games on the weekly level

II: Predicting Page Views

• Predict page views because it should be the strongest determinant of ad impressions

• DeterminantsFrom Trax

oUsersoPage ViewsoSearchesoVideos ServedoTotal Users TrackingoNew Users TrackingoPrice ChecksoForum Activity

Pre-existing AwarenessoIP Type (Original, Sequel, Licensed)oMilestones (News, Previews, Videos)

Quality of GameoAverage Review Score (as a stand-in for preview score)

Gamespot TrafficoQuarter game is released

Heteroskedasticity: Big Games = Big Errors

Constructing the Forecast Interval

• Two sources of uncertainty– Standard Error of Regression (SER)

– Coefficient Uncertainty

• SER– Future is uncertain (see figure)

– Reduce through stratification (e.g. separate models for X360 games, casual games, Q4, high PV-growth)

• Coefficient Uncertainty– Uncertain coefficients, so uncertain

dependent variable

– Ignored

– Sample size not large enough

– Software limitation

Solution

• Sell Bullseye ad campaigns on at least 3 SKUs to reduce risk of underdelivery

• Just need to reduce the SER to improve models’ goodness-of-fit

Summary of Results – 30 Days

Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1

X360

PS3

Wii

PC

DS

PSP

Summary of Results – 60 Days

Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1

X360

PS3

Wii

PC

DS

PSP

Summary of Results – 90 Days

Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1

X360

PS3

Wii

PC

DS

PSP

Testing Validity of Models

• Use games released after 5/31/08• Test Interface & Final Interface• Interface will eventually be automated into a new

tool, so that the sales rep only needs to put in the game ID, and all data will be pulled from Trax

• A new Bullseye tool and/or an internal version of Trax could be created to ease testing and usage of the models

Next Steps

• Test models• Finalize relationship between page views and ad

impressions (need 2007 Bullseye campaign data)• Generate models for 120-day and 180-day windows• Establish business rules using the results of testing

– New rules on Bullseye ad campaigns (e.g. at least 3 SKUs)– Ability to revise projections at the 90-day, 60-day, 30-day windows– All Bullseye ad campaigns can convert to the CPM model

Acknowledgements

• Sara Borthwick (manager)• Entire Trax Team (Anne, Christian, Christie, Colina,

Marisa, Matt, Maura, Shanna)• Product Marketing (Andrew, Nina)• Statisticians (Erika, Phil)• Excel Master (Jared)