1Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Bunkering in the Straits Bunkering in the Straits
Bunker Summit 2009Bunker Summit 2009Mediterranean and Black SeaMediterranean and Black Sea
Sotogrande Sotogrande 15 May 200915 May 2009
Robin MeechRobin Meech
Marine and Energy Consulting LimitedMarine and Energy Consulting Limited
3Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
World trade has fallen over a cliff
Sources: IMF, World Bank, WTO
% change on previous year
12
9
6
3
0
- 3
- 6
- 9
1970 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 09Forecast
4Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2012 2023 2024 2025
Global Cap 4.5%Baltic and North Sea
SOx ECA 1.5%
All SECA 1.0% S
Jul
All SECA 0.1% SJan
Global Cap0.5% SJan
Global Cap3.5% SJan
Review
Global Cap0.5% S
Jan
Likely delay
1 3
42
Reducing the sulphur content of fuels will increase costs more than any other single factor
Annex VI incorporatesfour key steps
20101.5% S $3351.0% S $390Diff $55
20151.0% S $6700.1% S $970Diff $300
20203.5% S $7100.5% S $1,180Diff $470
Not changing significantly
5Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Global bunker Demand with the introduction of 0.5% sulphur cap between 2020 and 2025 (million tons)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Residual Max 1.5% Residual Max 1.0% Residual Max 4.5% Residual max 3.5%Distillate Max 0.1% Distillate 0.1 to 0.5% Distillate - Other
6Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
REST OF ASIA
0
20
40
60
SINGAPORE
0
20
40
60
Global demand of all types of bunkers
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2015 2020
SOUTH AMERICA
010203040
MIDDLE EAST
0
20
40
60
NORTH ASIA
0
20
40
60
EUROPE
020406080
AFRICA
0
10
20
30
Mediterranean
0
20
40
60
Million tons
7Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Demand for residual bunkers in the East and West
7
WEST EAST
Milli
on to
ns
8Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Mediterranean market will recover to 2008 levels by 2012
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1.5% Residual 1.0% Residual 4.5% Residual 3.5% Residual Distillates
But overall growth will stall thereafter
9Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
HSBFO 1.5% S 1.0% S 0.1% S 0.5% S Other Diesel
Average prices for main engine fuels will rise above $1200/ton
$/ton
10Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
However, the market value in the Mediterranean will increase four fold
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demand million tons Value $ billion
11Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
St. of Gibraltar 6.9 mill tons
Northern Med12.8 mill tons
Black Sea5.2 mill tons
Eastern & Suez8.5 mill tonsNorth Africa
1.8 mill tons
The Straits of Gibraltar bunker market is 20% of the region
12Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
20%
AlgecirasRefinery
30%
5%
20%15%
Other10%
Fuel suppliers into western Mediterranean / Straits of Gibraltar Market
LowSulphurproduct
13Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1.5% Residual 1.0% Residual
There is a significant low sulphur residual market in the Mediterranean where the Straits of Gibraltar will be a leader
14Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
It is extremely unlikely that there will be an ECA in the Mediterraneanfor over a decade
• Can not be justified economically/technically
• Not an equal desire by the 25 countries bordering the Mediterranean
• North African countries will benefit from SOx deposition
• Enforcement would be intermittent – difficult with transit traffic
• There isn’t enough suitable product available
• Little political cohesion
15Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
GibraltarBunkerAnchorages
GibraltarHabour
Port of Algeciras
CepsaRefinery
AlgecirasBunkerAnchorages
EastAnchorages
Bay of Gibraltar
16Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
GibraltarCeutaAlgeciras
Gibraltar has maintained a 60% market share over the past decadewith demand growing faster than the global average
17Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Sales by company in Gibraltar (million tons)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008
Bunkers GibGIBUNCOFAMMAegeanVemaoilShell - Gib
18Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Tanker Name Operator Age DWTLeader Aegean 23 83,890Europa Venture Bunkers Gibraltar 23 76,000Vemabaltic Vemaoil 22 107,544
267434
• Until 2006 the MoD Kings Lines, underground 250,000 cub of tankage augmented the floating storage
- Requires renovation- Could offer lower costs than floating storage
• Into ship deliveries are performed by a fleet of some 15 barges
• There are 11 bunkering anchorages, three of which are occupied bythe floating storage vessels
• This lack of anchorages inhibits further market growth
• Growing competition could further reduce sales
Gibraltar will need to compete even more rigorously if it is to maintainIts current market position
19Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Kings Lines
Existing hydrants
Gibraltar
North Mole
South Mole
MOD hydrants – not available for commercial use
Detached Mole
BUNKER ANCHORAGES
EASTERN ANCHORAGES
20Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Route for underwater lines2 x 14” and 1 x 10”About 300 metres
Requirement for 4 or 6 hydrant pointsand tanker berth
Or dredge to permit floating storage tomoor alongside
Marine Option 1 – Detached Mole hydrants
Extension Jetty
21Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Requirement for 4 or 6 hydrant pointsand tanker berth
Marine Option 2 – Perpendicular mole
22Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Requirement for 4 or 6 hydrant pointsand tanker berth
Marine Option 3 – Reclaimed land
400,000 cub tankage
23Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
• There has been pressure to curtail floating storage for environmental reasons but these are unfounded
• Replacing the floating storage with land based tankage or mooring the storage tankers along side the Detached Mole will increase potential throughput by some 30% to over 600,000 tpa
• Increasing the capacity is no guarantee that Gibraltar will grow its market
• Permitting bunkering in the Eastern Anchorages is very unlikely for some time even with the new VTS
• The bunker sector is economically as valuable to the Gibraltar economyas the cruise business and it can be expected that the Government will support the important bunker sector
• If Aegean move to Tanger Med it is unlikely they will retain floating storage in Gibraltar and nobody will replace them the capacity by 30%
Gibraltar future
24Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Algeciras has growing potential
• Supplies have grown by 7 % pa over the past five years amounting to 35% of the Straits of Gibraltar bunker market
• Dominated by Cepsa and Repsol but about to change
• The new Alpetrol terminal - Will come on stream in 2011/2- Developed by Vilma and Novaro- Have a capacity of 300,000 cub in 29 tanks - Significant capacity dedicated to bunkers- With be capable of supplying over 2 million tons pa- Can accommodating Suezmax tankers- Low cargo import costs
• CLH upgrading its terminal- Doubling capacity to 140,000 cub- Draft of 14,5 m
• There are five bunker barges operating in the port
25Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
There are further ways in which the port might extend it bunker market
• Eventually introduce more barges
• Optimising anchorage management
• Introduction of more players increasing competition
• Although currently over 60% of stems are delivered in the anchoragesthe port will need to maintain cargo traffic growth to further developthe bunker business
26Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Ceuta is a well established bunker centre but with restricted capacity
• Petrolifera Ducar, S.A operate two facilities of - 55,000 cub fuel oil- 28,500 cub gas oil
• The facilities in need of some upgrading
• In 1993 some 750,000 tons bunkers delivered but activity athalf this level recently
• Restricted space for additional expansion although plans existing for a 1.0 million cub terminal
• Capable of accommodating 40,000 dwt tankers
• Potential for growth is limited
27Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Oil Terminal
Jetty
Tangier Med I:• Maersk (containers) operational since 2007.• Eurogate consortium operational 2010• Car Export Facility to be operational 2015Tangier Med II:• Operational end 2014• Bulk terminal
Tanger Med rapidly developing
28Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
A new tank terminal is under construction
• Capacity 500,000 cub in 17 tanks
• Due for commissioning in 2011
• Some 60% dedicated to bunkering
• Capacity to turnover 3 million tons of bunkers
• Remainder used for import of clean products into Northern Morocco and trading
• Accommodate Suezmax tankers and a barge jetty
• 25 year concession
• Recent reports suggest that Aegean will be the sole supplier of bunkers
• Intension to service in-port and passing traffic
29Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Demand for residual bunkers in the Port of Tanger Med
1.060.422,5801,900Total `
0.060.027008040Tankers
0.400.201,0001,000800CMA CGM Consortium
0.600.201,0001,500700Maersk
PotentialMarketmillion
tons2020
PotentialMarketMilliontons2011
Typical Bunker StemTons
Number of VesselCalls 2020
Number ofVessel
Calls 2011
Number of Vessel Calls
Significant other traffic by 2020
30Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
44,500Potential market
4,500Container ships unlikely to make bunker only calls
500Bunkering at Ceuta
8,500Bunkering at Gibraltar
7,000Calling at Algeciras for bunkers and cargo(excluding ferries)
30,000Ferries and smaller vessels
Stemming 5% of these vessels at the average stem of 800 tons presents a potential additional market of 1.5 million tons
There is a significant unsatisfied bunker-only market
Vessels pa
Total vessels thorough the Straits 95,000
LESS
31Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
There is a significant up side to these forecasts
• TMSA have significant expansion plans with Stage 2 of the port - operational by 2014
• A new ferry port is under construction providing further demand subject to- Provision of low sulphur, competitively priced fuels- Delivery by hydrant if the volume justifies this approach
• A new car export facility and a bulk terminal are under development
• Provision of lower sulphur fuels to vessels on route to the North and Baltic Seas
• With low freight rates and as bunker prices harden, then there will be a greater propensity to seek competitively priced off shore(bunker-only) supplies
Potential market of 2 million tons by 2015
32Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Tanger Med could reduce sales in Gibraltar and inhibit growth in Algeciras
Overall growth in the Straits will be above the global average
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
AlgecirasCeutaGibraltar Tanger MedTotal
33Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
In summary
• Difficult times over the next five years
• Life is becoming more complex
• Storage capacity in the Straits growing by 1 million cub
• Gibraltar may be the most vulnerable marker in need of Government support
• Tanger Med will have a significant impact on the Straits market
• Bunker demand in the Straits will grow faster than the global average
• Revenues will increase four fold over the next decade
34Sotogrande 15 May [email protected]
Bunkering in the StraitsBunkering in the Straits
Bunker Summit 2009Bunker Summit 2009Mediterranean and Black SeaMediterranean and Black Sea
Sotogrande Sotogrande 15 May 200915 May 2009
Robin MeechRobin Meech
Marine and Energy Consulting LimitedMarine and Energy Consulting Limited
