Burden of disease from rising coal emissions in Asia

Shannon Koplitz1, Daniel Jacob1, Lauri Myllyvirta2, Melissa Sulprizio1 1Harvard University

2Greenpeace International

Coal use is expanding rapidly in Asia 2014 Population

1. China = 1369.5 million 2. India = 1270 million 3. U.S. = 321 million

4. Indonesia = 255 million Japan

S. Korea

Taiwan

Philippines

Vietnam Myanmar

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

China India U.S.

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Coal SO2 Emissions (Present Day ~2011)

Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013

Coal use is expanding rapidly in Asia

If all projected plants become operational, Asian coal emissions of SO2 and NOx could triple by 2030. Indonesia and Vietnam together account for 67% of this projected increase, as well as an additional 35 million people by 2030.

Japan

S. Korea

Taiwan

Philippines

Vietnam Myanmar

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

Estimated 2030 Population 1. India = 1523 million 2. China = 1393 million

3. U.S. = 361 million 4. Indonesia = 280 million

Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013

China India U.S. Countries in this work

Tg y

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Coal SO2 Emissions

China India U.S.

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Increase by 2030

2011

1.  Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both 2011 and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).

2.  Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.

Project Objectives

Approach

1.  Implement three 1-year emission scenarios of coal SO2, NOx, and primary PM2.5 (as fine mode dust) into v9-02 of GEOS-Chem at 0.5°x0.666° resolution over Asia:

a.  Present Day (2011) – Replace EDGAR v4.2 emissions over Asia with 2011

reported emissions b.  2030 – Add emissions for all Asian coal plants in the developmental

pipeline c.  No Coal – Remove contribution of Asian coal emissions from EDGAR v4.2

2.  Apply concentration-response relationships following Krewski et al., 2009

(PM) and Anenberg et al., 2010 (ozone) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

Regional PM enhancements are mostly from sulfate

PM enhancements correlate spatially with population density. Total exposure is third highest in China, due to high population levels in southern China near Vietnamese emissions.

(Gridded Population of the World from CIESIN)

2010 Population Map

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ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal

µg m-3

Jakarta

Hanoi

We estimate 16,000 deaths annually from current coal

Including a 10% population increase by 2030 in both Indonesia and Vietnam, we estimate 45,600 deaths annually by 2030 if all projected plants become operational.

Excess Deaths Per Year Total Exposure in 2030 (ΔPM2.5 x Population)

Base mortality rate

concentration-response factor

from GEOS-Chem

2011: 14,860 PM 1,530 ozone 16,390 total 2030 increase: 24,160 PM 2,390 ozone 26,550 total = 42,940 excess deaths per year (using 2010 population)

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ΔMortality = γ0 x CRF(β, ΔPM2.5) x Population

Global changes in PM are small and driven by NOx

Intercontinental enhancements in surface PM reflect the influence of NOx emissions on oxidant chemistry. Greater influence over Europe compared to U.S. is likely due to higher domestic PM sources there (SO2, NOx, NH3).

Future - No Coal Surface PM2.5

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ΔPM2.5 from Asian NOx

Leibensperger et al., 2011: ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal (this work) ΔPM2.5 from Asian SO2

µg m-3

µg m-3