Burton Upon Trent Updated for Portal 2011

8/4/2019 Burton Upon Trent Updated for Portal 2011

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Cooper Square, Burton on TrentThe Retail Opportunity

April 2011


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Contents

Catchment Analysis & Demographics

Modelling of Burton upon Trent post development

Benchmark Locations

Gap Analysis


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Catchment Analysis & Demographics


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Market Shares

Primary 79.0%

Secondary 46.6%

Tertiary 13.1%

Quaternary 1.5%

TOTAL 11.0%

Source: CACI 2010

Shopper Population

Primary 73,192

Secondary 31,144

Tertiary 16,880

Quaternary 13,694

TOTAL 134,910

Burton upon Trents Retail Catchment - Summary


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CatchmentBurton upon Trent

Current Market Share

Average Centre

Average Market Share

Market Share Index

Average Centres=100

Primary 79.0% 59.5% 133

Secondary 46.6% 37.5% 124

Tertiary 13.1% 19.2% 68

Quaternary 1.5% 2.5% 60

TOTAL 11.0% 15.5% 71

Burton upon Trent is classified as an Average Centre within CACIs Retail Footprintmodel.

Within its primary and secondary sub-catchments, Burton upon Trent achieves highermarket shares than the average for its location classification.

Overall, Burton upon Trents catchment market share of 11.0% is below its locationclassification average of 15.5%, offering opportunities for growth in market share.

Source: CACI 2010

Burton upon Trents Market Shares


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Source: CACI 2010

Market shares

in the

immediate

catchment are

vey high, fallingaway as is

expected as

distances and

competition

increases.

Burton upon Trents Market Shares


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Retail Centre

Comp. GoodsExpenditure

(m)

WestMidlands

Ranking

Solihull 466.9 5th

Worcester 461.3 6th

Stoke /Hanley 427.5 7th

Hereford 346.4 8th

Leamington Spa 329.0 9th

Burton upon Trent 322.2 10th

Stafford 282.6 11th

Shrewsbury 278.3 12th

Telford 277.9 13th

Nuneaton 254.0 14th

Walsall 214.9 15th

Burton upon Trents shopper population has a total of 322.2 million in available spend on

comparison goods, according to CACIs Retail Footprint. On this basis Burton upon Trent isranked 93rd nationally and 10th regionally.

Source: CACI 2010

Retail Centre

Comp. GoodsExpenditure(m)

NationalRanking

Bedford 332.8 88th

Lancaster 330.3 89th

Leamington Spa 329.0 90th

Gloucester 328.5 91st

Bicester Village 324.4 92nd

Burton upon Trent 322.2 93rd

Wood Green 318.8 94th

Chichester 318.2 95th

Kensington 316.6 96th

Swansea 315.4 97th

Southend on Sea 313.7 98th

Burton upon Trents Retail Rankings - CACI


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Retail Centre VenuescoreNational

Ranking

Kings Road 186 78th

Sutton 186 78th

Taunton 185 80th

Carlisle 183 81stWarrington 183 81st

Burton upon Trent 182 83rd

Sunderland 181 84th

Wimbledon 179 85th

Swansea 178 86th

Uxbridge 178 86th

Ilford 175 88th

Within Javelins Venuescore which focuses more on the scale and strength of the retail offer,Burton upon Trent is ranked 83rd nationally and 8th within the West Midlands region

These rankings are based on a scoring system which takes into account the presence in each

location of multiple retailers and do not account for available spend.

Source: Javelin 2010

Retail Centre VenuescoreRegionalRanking

Wolverhampton 220 3rd

Solihull 217 4th

Coventry 214 5th

Worcester 201 6thStoke on Trent 196 7th

Burton upon Trent 182 8th

Leamington Spa 175 9th

Hereford 169 10th

Nuneaton 161 11th

Shrewsbury 158 12th

Walsall 141 13th

Burton upon Trents Retail Rankings Javelin


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Source: CACI 2010

The adjacent map

identifies key competing

centres to Burton upon

Trent alongside each

centres retail ranking

which is based on

available comparison

goods expenditure.

Key centres shown are all

ranked within the top 300

Retail Footprint centres.

One of the primary reasons

for Burton upon Trents high

market shares in the

primary and secondarysub-catchments, is the lack

of convincing alternative

retail centres in the

immediate proximity.

Burton upon Trents Competing Centres


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Burton upon Trents Leakage This chart shows the market share

from Burton upon Trents totalretail catchment that is retainedby Burton upon Trent, plus themarket share that is leaked tocompeting centres.

These leakage figures have beenderived from CACIscomprehensive Retail Footprintmodel.

Those centres that achieve amarket share less than 2% havebeen excluded.

Derby gains the greatest marketshare within Burton upon Trents

catchment, 21%.

The proposed additional retailspace in Burton upon Trent withan appropriate retail offer wouldreduce this leakage and allowBurton upon Trent to retain agreater share of its market.

Source: CACI 2010


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Burton upon Trents Acorn Profile Source: CACI 2010

Secure Families are the largest Acorn group, accounting for 18% residents, in line with the regional average.

Flourishing Families account for an additional 12% of the catchment and Wealthy Executives 11%.

These three dominant, department store shopper groups account for a combined 41% of the catchment

population. This compares to 29% nationally.


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Source: CACI 2010

The outer catchment shows anaffluent consumer profile. It is keythat Burton upon Trent has arelevant offer for this consumer,thereby reducing the need for themto travel elsewhere

Burton upon Trents Acorn Distribution


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Source: CACI 2010

Retail Catchment Demographics Burton upon Trents retail catchment has

a stable demographic profile that is

broadly in line with the national profileand therefore will appeal to mass

market retailers.

The social grade of the catchment isbroadly in line with the regional and

national average.

At 23.7%, the AB social class group isslightly below the GB average of 24.9%,

although above the regional average of

22.5%.

Against the West Midlands average,Burton upon Trent has a similar

percentage of 25 to 44 year olds (26.3%vs. 26.2%).


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14Source: CACI 2010

Retail Catchment Demographics Projected population growth for Burton

upon Trents catchment is higher thanboth the regional and national averageat 5% to 2015 and 10% to 2020. Thissignificant population growth will help tosupport the additional retail space that isproposed.

In terms of gross family income, 59.4% ofthe households earn more than 30,000within Burton upon Trents catchment.This is above the West Midlands averageof 53.6% and slightly below the GBaverage of 60.1%.


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Demographic and Economic Summary

Source: CACI 2010 and Oxford Economics 2011

Demographic

Catchment shopper population 134,910.

Total catchment population 1,225,921.

Total catchment market shares 11% (primary 79%, secondary 46.6%, tertiary 13.1%,

quaternary 1.5%).

Over penetration in primary and secondary market shares versus Average Centres.

23.7% ABs against a GB average of 24.9% and a regional average of 22.5%.

Bias towards the more family orientated ACORN groups.

Economic

5 year GDP growth of 15.1% forecast to 2015 vs. UK average of 14.3%.

5 year disposable income growth of 11.8% forecast to 2015 vs. UK average of 11.2%.

Unemployment at end 2010 for Shropshire & Staffordshire is forecast to be 7.1% versus 7.7%nationally.

This is forecast to fall to 6.1% by 2015 compared to the UK average of 6.6%.

(Unless otherwise stated, the above economic data is at county council level Burton upon Trent falls into Staffordshire)


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Development Pipeline


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City / TownScheme

Name

Owner /

Developer

Retail

Gain sq ft

Total retail

space sq ft

Opening

DateComments

Lichfield FriarsgateS Harrison

Developments256,011 256,011 n/k

Retail led, mixed usescheme situated in the citycentre. It is proposed thatDebenhams will anchor thescheme

NottinghamThe Victoria

Centre

Capital

Shopping

Centres

500,000 1,481,000 n/k

Proposed newdevelopment store and 50new shops, alongside a newbus station, 10 screencinema and a range ofrestaurants

Nottingham BroadmarshCentre Westfield n/k n/k Phase 12012

Proposal for a 500 million

redevelopment of thescheme including two newdepartment stores

Tamworth

Town Centre

Redevelopm

ent

Henry Boot 222,384 222,384 2015

Developers Henry Boot arewaiting for increasedinterest in the retail unitsbefore proceeding with thisscheme

Source: Egi 2011

Development Pipeline


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Burton upon Trent, Scheme Development


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The Proposed Scheme

Burton upon Trent's current Retail Footprint score is 988.

Assuming the proposed development the new Retail Footprint score that has beenpredicted is 1,225.


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Variables Current Proposed Uplift %

Totalcomparison 501,000 621,366 24%

Retail Footprint

score 988 1,225 24%

Shopperpopulation 134,911 147,278 9.2%

Comparison

goods 322.2 351.7 9.2%

Assuming the proposed development in Tamworth, comparison goods expenditure is forecast

to increase by 9% as a result of the Burton upon Trent development. This equates to anincrease in comparison type goods available spend of 29.5m.

Source: GOAD 2011 & CACI 2010

Market shares Current Proposed

Primary 79.0% 82.3%

Secondary 46.4% 48.8%

Tertiary 13.1% 11.8%

Quaternary 1.5% 1.4%

TOTAL 11% 10.9%

Proposed Development Including Tamworth


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Retail Centre Current Leakage Post Development Leakage

Derby 21.0% 17.9%

Burton upon Trent 11.0% 11.0%

Nottingham 8.9% 8.3%

Birmingham 6.8% 6.8%

Tamworth 4.2% 4.1%

Tamworth 3.8% 3.8%

Derby Kingsway 2.9% 2.5%

Lichfield 2.6% 2.5%

Cannock 2.5% 2.5%

The above table shows those centres where 2.5% or more of Burton upon Trents catchment isleaked to. This is for the scenario not assuming the Tamworth development.

The proposed development will help to reduce leakage mainly to Derby and Nottingham.

Leakage to Tamworth falls marginally.

Source: CACI 2010

Leakage Post Development


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Benchmark Locations


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Benchmarks For Gap Analysis

Benchmarks have been selected on a number of factors including

Acorn correlation with Burton upon Trent

Comparison goods expenditure

Centre classification

Drive time population

Inclusion of a new department store

The benchmarks selected for Burton upon Trent are Basingstoke, Blackpool, Doncaster,

Hanley, Lincoln, Northampton, Sunderland and Telford.

The following slide shows retail variables for each of the benchmarks in order to show howBurton upon Trent post development will compare.

These benchmarks then feed into the Gap Analysis.


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Retail CentreAcornCorrelation

TotalCatchmentShopperPop.

15 MinuteDrive timePop.

Minor CentreClassification

ComparisonGoods Exp.(m)

RFScore

ComparisonGoodsSpace sq ft

ZoneARents2010*

Burton uponTrent (postdevelopment) n/a 148,528 114,714 Average 354.8 1,225 621,366

90(now)

Basingstoke 0.66 135,542 130,193Mall

Dominated363.7 1,018 582,700 125

Blackpool 0.64 158,037 168,521 Average 362.6 958 728,910 90

Doncaster 0.87 174,262 194,198 Average 437.4 1,141 981,160 100

Hanley 0.88 181,591 267,100 Average 427.5 912 923,380 80

Lincoln 0.74 163,960 149,117 Average 370.2 942 803,880 135

Northampton 0.90 172,127 235,025AverageRegional 399.9 1,042 893,920 100

Sunderland 0.60 150,169 230,871 Average 344.8 988 610,710 130

Telford 0.89 112,280 150,054MallDominated 277.9 717 438,800 100

Source: CACI 2010, GOAD 2011 & JLL*Highest rents for the town have been used

Benchmark Comparisons


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Retail Centre

Total retail

space (sq ft)*

Comparison goods

space (sq ft)

Convenience goods

space (sq ft)

Vacant Retail

(sq ft)

Burton upon Trent

(current) 877,400 501,000 223,600 97,100

Burton upon Trent (post

development) 997,766 621,366 223,600 Not known

Basingstoke 861,000 582,700 63,500 152,600

Blackpool 1,064,210 728,910 91,300 184,100

Doncaster 1,526,660 981,160 184,500 254,500

Hanley 1,440,980 923,380 165,200 269,300

Lincoln 1,187,420 803,880 98,800 175,900

Northampton 1,258,060 893,920 80,800 169,300

Sunderland 1,085,890 610,710 108,000 308,280

Telford 611,600 438,800 92,400 63,900

Source: GOAD 2011

*Total retail space includes comparison, convenience, other retail, retail services and vacant retail

Benchmark Retail Space

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Burton Upon Trent Updated for Portal 2011

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