Business (as Usual) and the Environment Mortar Board Last Lecture March 3, 2004
Slide 2
My teachers.
Slide 3
Economy - Environment economyenvironment
Slide 4
Business View economy environment
Slide 5
An Environmentalist View economy environment
Slide 6
Sustainable View economy environment
Slide 7
Global Warming
Slide 8
www.bongonews.com MARCH 19, 2003 After a Cold Winter, Europe Asks the US to Increase Global Warming BRUSSELS After suffering through a much colder than usual winter, leaders of the European Community have appealed to the United States to do more to increase global warming. BRUSSELS After suffering through a much colder than usual winter, leaders of the European Community have appealed to the United States to do more to increase global warming.
Slide 9
BBC News Friday, 9 January, 2004, 01:14 GMT http://news.bbc.co.uk Climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today. Climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today. - Sir David King, UK governments chief science adviser
Slide 10
Greenhouse Gases Carbon dioxide fossil fuel combustion. Carbon dioxide fossil fuel combustion. Methane fossil fuel production, decomposition of organic wastes. Methane fossil fuel production, decomposition of organic wastes. Nitrous oxide - agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels. Nitrous oxide - agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels.
Slide 11
Humans emit 24 billion tons per year. Atmospheric CO 2
Slide 12
Average Earth Temperature increased 1 o F during 20 th Century
Slide 13
Current temperature is the highest in 1000 years.
Slide 14
Projected Global Temperature Change
Slide 15
Temperature Increase: 3 o F 10 o F by 2100
Slide 16
Impacts Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea level, Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea level, Change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Changing regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies Changing regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies Damage ecosystems. Damage ecosystems. Deserts may expand into existing rangelands. Deserts may expand into existing rangelands.
Slide 17
Extinction of Species
Slide 18
Recent Letter in Nature Extinction risk from climate change Nature 427, 145 - 148 (08 January 2004); doi:10.1038/nature02121 On the web at www.nature.com
Slide 19
Results of the Study When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate- warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18%) than mid-range (24%) and maximum-change (35%) scenarios.
Slide 20
Between 1/5 and 1/3 of all species will become extinct in your lifetime!
Slide 21
Most of us ignored this report. Most people ignore environmental problems, do not understand them, remain inactive, hope everything works out well, or dont connect the science with reality.
Slide 22
A few were skeptical. There is a very strong consensus among scientists that global warming has a dominant anthropogenic component.
Slide 23
The US has not developed a CO2 Reduction Plan Bush administration emphasizes energy production and consumption.
Slide 24
Why is the US responding in this way? Since global warming will affect us, our friends, our families, and the world around us, we should take responsible actions to mitigate its effects.
Slide 25
Compare to US response to air pollution! By 1970, air pollution had become a major US health problem
Slide 26
Pollutants Gases CO, SO x, O 3, NO x, and VOC Gases CO, SO x, O 3, NO x, and VOC Particulates and aerosols Particulates and aerosols
Slide 27
Photochemical Smog Ozone is formed when UV radiation, high temperatures, Nitrogen oxides, and VOCs combine. Automobiles are the main source.
Slide 28
Acid Rain Sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) and nitric (HNO 3 ) acid are formed and precipitated on vegetation in lakes and streams. Automobiles and coal plants are the main sources.
Slide 29
The Environmental Protection Agency Created in 1970
Slide 30
EPA Environmental Protection Agency Mike LeavittChristine Todd Whitman
Slide 31
Clean Air Acts 1955, 1963, 1970, 1990
Slide 32
Command and Control Strategy Automobile emission standards are an example of the Command and Control strategy. Automobile emission standards are an example of the Command and Control strategy. Emission standards are set and enforced by EPA. Emission standards are set and enforced by EPA.
Slide 33
Catalytic Converter Converts VOC, CO, NOx -> H2O, N2, O2, CO2 Converts VOC, CO, NOx -> H2O, N2, O2, CO2 Catalysts are platinum, palladium, rhodium or a ceramic. Catalysts are platinum, palladium, rhodium or a ceramic. Add $500 to cost of car. Add $500 to cost of car.
Slide 34
Have EPA Strategies Worked for Pollution Emission by cars? Pollutant19702001 VOC 16.9 (41*) 4.9 NOx 11.5 (28*) 8.2 CO 163 (400*) 75 Emission by On-Road Vehicles ( million short tons) Estimate of current value with no pollution control program, business as usual. Assuming 143 percent increase in vehicle miles. Estimate of current value with no pollution control program, business as usual. Assuming 143 percent increase in vehicle miles.
Slide 35
Power Plant Emissions Use Cap and Trade strategy.
Slide 36
Cap and Trade Utilities are assigned allowances - permission to emit a ton of sulfur dioxide Utilities are assigned allowances - permission to emit a ton of sulfur dioxide Utilities can sell unused allowances or carry them over into the next year. Utilities can sell unused allowances or carry them over into the next year.
Slide 37
Scrubbers Remove SO2 from coal plant exhaust. Adds at least 10% to the cost of a coal plant.
Slide 38
The Clean Air Act Worked!
Slide 39
Why is dealing with Global Warming so much more difficult?
Slide 40
Global Warming is not a clear and present danger.
Slide 41
Global Warming does not immediately threaten human health.
Slide 42
Global Warming is not the result of an impurity like sulfur in coal.
Slide 43
Global Warming is the direct result of consuming Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal. We get 85% of our energy from fossil fuel C + O 2 CO 2
Slide 44
There are no technical fixes like scrubbers or catalytic converters.
Slide 45
Costs of mitigating global warming are seen by some to be greater than costs of adapting to global warming.
Slide 46
Global Warming is not a local problem.
Slide 47
Compare to US response to stratospheric ozone depletion!
Slide 48
Depletion of the Ozone Layer
Slide 49
Antarctic Ozone Hole was a clear and present danger. Science was well-understood.
Slide 50
Human health as well as ecology was threatened.
Slide 51
Technical fixes and favorable economics led to international treaties.
Slide 52
Montreal Protocol 29 countries plus the European Union signed initially 29 countries plus the European Union signed initially All have agreed to a phase- out schedule All have agreed to a phase- out schedule Globally emission of ODPs has been drastically reduced to around 10% of original levels. Globally emission of ODPs has been drastically reduced to around 10% of original levels.
Slide 53
Kyoto Protocol The US does not support the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty to reduce global warming.
Slide 54
US Objections to Kyoto Developing nations not bound, initially. Developing nations not bound, initially. Reducing fossil fuel use would disrupt US and global economy. Reducing fossil fuel use would disrupt US and global economy.
Slide 55
But, we can not avoid our responsibility. US has 5% of world population, but emits 25% of GHG.
Slide 56
The scientific evidence is solid.
Slide 57
We can not wait to see what happens.
Slide 58
Species extinction is imminent.
Slide 59
Extinctions are permanent. Recovery from mass extinctions takes millions of years.
