Business Continuity in a Changing Climate: Would your Business Stay Afloat?
Mark Russell Flood Forecasting Manager, Environment Agency (SW)
ENVEC, 8th October 2009, Winter Gardens, Weston-Super-Mare
Climate change impacts on flood risk in the South West
Climate change impacts –tides
New Areas at Flood RiskLonger Duration of Flood –Higher low tidesGreater damage from Waves Existing Areas at Increased Flood Risk.
Main line railway to Devon and Cornwall, Dawlish
Climate change impacts - tides
Extreme tide levels at Avonmouth
7.95
8.00
8.05
8.10
8.15
8.20
1930's 1940's 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's
Decade
Me
dian
ext
rem
e ti
de m
AO
D
Climate change impacts - tides
Based on UKCIP 2002
South West Cumulative Sea Level Rise From 2002 Base line (Defra 2006)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140
Year
Sea
Lev
el R
ise
(mm
)
Climate change impacts - tidesEstimated Reduction of the 200 yr (2002) Return Per iod Due to Rising Sea Levels
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
100 180 260 340 420 500 580
Chainage around Coastline from Avonmouth (km)
Ret
urn
Per
iod
Est
imat
e (y
ears
)
2025 2055 2085 2115
Lynm
outh
Clo
velly
New
quay
New
lyn
Ply
mou
th
Exm
outh
Tor
cros
s
Lym
e R
egis
+321mm
+666mm
Net Sea LevelRise above2002 Estimates
+81mm
+1101mm
Based on UKCIP 2002
Climate change impacts - tidesReduction in Return Period Due to Sea Level Rise - Topsham
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1.00 10.00 100.00 1000.00
Return Period (years)
Ext
rem
e S
ea L
evel
(m
AO
D)
2002
2085
8-yr Return Period 200-yr Return Period
0.67m
Based on UKCIP 2002
Climate change impacts - rivers
Defra advice – up to 20% extra peak flowLow confidence –Based on Severn & ThamesExtents in well defined floodplain unlikely to change a great dealChange in frequency is likely to be most notable difference.
Mainline railway for Devon and Cornwall, Exeter, Dec 2000
Climate change impacts - rivers
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
10 100 1000
Return Period yrs
Gro
wth
Fac
tor
Q/Qbar
+20%
40
Impacts of flooding on business continuity
Impacts of flooding on business continuity
When considering how climate change is going to affect the UK, it’s useful to understand the risks that current climate already poses to individuals, landscapes, organisations and the economy, before moving on to explore future climate risks. (UKCIP, 2008)
Impacts of flooding on business continuity
1 in 6 properties at risk of floodingOver 175,000 businesses in the floodplain in England and WalesFlood damage often > £50,000
Flooding in England – a national assessment of flood risk, 2009
Impacts of flooding on business continuity –Summer 2007
43,000 homes and 5,000 businessesAverage period of disruption was 8.75 days12% said they had taken action to mitigate against the effects of flooding1.6% were considering relocating to premises less vulnerable to flooding
Impacts of flooding on business continuity –Summer 2007 – An example from Sheffield
1:30 pm1:50 pm2 pm3:30 pmNext day
Environment Agency Actions
Environment Agency Actions – Would your business stay afloat?
National campaignsNational toolkits –Would your business stay afloat?Targeted local campaignsPartnerships
Environment Agency Actions – Would your business stay afloat?
Know if you are at riskSign up for flood warningsPrepare a flood plan
Environment Agency Actions – Would your business stay afloat?
SMEs are difficult to engage:Not located near an obvious source of waterArea had not been flooded beforeFlooding seen as ‘once in a lifetime’ eventToo many other problems to worryNot their responsibility
Environment Agency Actions - Caravan and Campsites
Environment Agency Actions – Caravan and Campsites
Environment Agency Actions – Parents of children under 5
Environment Agency Actions -partnerships
Summary
Flood risk is already a significant business risk in the South WestFlood risk is likely to increase in the future from climate changeMany businesses are not adapted to current flood riskFlood risk to businesses should be managed as part of wider business continuityWe need to join forces to improve business continuity in the South West
Contacts
Mark [email protected] 352412
Floodline0845 9881188
Websitewww.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood
