DfT register of Business Critical Models The Macpherson Review of the quality assurance of government models classed a model as business critical where: • the modelling drives essential financial and funding decisions • the model is essential to the achievement of business plan actions and priorities • errors could engender serious financial, legal, reputational damages or penalties. The table provides a list of the Business Critical Models held and used within the Department and its Arm’s Length Bodies in September 2016. The next external update of the list will be in September 2017. Model Number Model Name Brief Description 1 Values of travel time savings and reliability Models will be developed to estimate values of travel time savings, reliability and other related factors. 2 National Transport Model Cost Benefit Analysis Tool To apply cost benefit analysis to scenarios modelled in the National Transport Model (NTM). Outputs are an Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table for the scenario modelled versus the baseline. 3 TUBA (Transport Users Benefit Appraisal) TUBA undertakes economic appraisal for multi-modal transport study. 4 TAG Data Book The Data Book provides key values that were previously included in tables in WebTAG guidance units. 5 DIADEM (Dynamic Integrated Assignment and Demand Modelling) A generic demand modelling package that allows practitioners to more quickly set up consistent variable demand models. 6 The National Trip End Modelling suite (NTEM) A model used to input travel demand forecasts into the National Transport Model and other transport models. 7 National Transport Model (NTM). Note: the NTM is composed of a series of sub-models, covering different aspects of travel demand, including a demand model (Pass1) a road The model is used to provide the Department’s road traffic and emissions forecasts.
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DfT register of Business Critical Models
The Macpherson Review of the quality assurance of government models classed a model as business critical where: • the modelling drives essential financial and funding decisions • the model is essential to the achievement of business plan actions and priorities • errors could engender serious financial, legal, reputational damages or penalties. The table provides a list of the Business Critical Models held and used within the Department and its Arm’s Length Bodies in September 2016. The next external update of the list will be in September 2017.
Model Number
Model Name Brief Description
1 Values of travel time savings and reliability Models will be developed to estimate values of travel time savings, reliability and other related factors.
2 National Transport Model Cost Benefit Analysis Tool
To apply cost benefit analysis to scenarios modelled in the National Transport Model (NTM). Outputs are an Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table for the scenario modelled versus the baseline.
3 TUBA (Transport Users Benefit Appraisal) TUBA undertakes economic appraisal for multi-modal transport study. 4 TAG Data Book The Data Book provides key values that were previously included in tables in WebTAG
and Demand Modelling) A generic demand modelling package that allows practitioners to more quickly set up consistent variable demand models.
6 The National Trip End Modelling suite (NTEM)
A model used to input travel demand forecasts into the National Transport Model and other transport models.
7 National Transport Model (NTM). Note: the NTM is composed of a series of sub-models, covering different aspects of travel demand, including a demand model (Pass1) a road
The model is used to provide the Department’s road traffic and emissions forecasts.
capacity model (FORGE) and a light-goods vehicle (LGV) forecasting model.
8 Coastguard Simulation Model The CG Simulation Model was developed to support the restructuring of HM Coastguard.
9 The Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPRO)
A software package that presents the National Trip End Model data set (NTEM) in the public domain.
10 Equality Monitoring Tools Access and Excel applications to help ensure the data quality, automate analysis and help in the writing of Equality Monitoring reports for the DfT family.
11 DVSA Demand Forecasting Models A suite of models in Excel to support the DVSA in publishing forecasts of demand for driving tests.
12 Air Travel Trust (ATT) Fund – Cash Flow Model
This model tracks and forecasts the balance of the Air Travel Trust Fund
13 The aviation model The model forecasts aviation passenger demand, air transport movements and carbon emissions. It can also output estimated user benefits attached to an airport capacity scheme.
14 Electric Car Cost model (ECCo) The ECCo model is an externally developed and owned model used by the department to produce projections of ULEV costs and uptake to 2050. The primary use of the model is to assess the impacts of OLEV policy.
15 ULEV Car CBA Model The ULEV CBA model is an excel model used to assess and monetise the costs and benefits of different ULEV uptake scenarios up to 2050.
16 Fleet Fuel Efficiency Model An Excel model containing large matrices breaking down the car fleet in each year (and its performance in terms of fuel efficiency) by vintage.
17 Departmental 2016 Pay model This model is used to cost the annual pay award for staff in the central Department and its executive agencies.
18 HS2 landscape impacts model The model is used in the assessment of landscape impacts of HS2. 19 The National Bus Model (NBM) A policy simulation model. It estimates the VfM of various bus subsidy policy options.
20 Concessionary Travel Reimbursement Tool The model is also used by independent adjudicators acting on behalf of the Secretary of State in arbitrating disputes between TCAs and Operators.
21 The highways maintenance appraisal tool (HMAT)
The highways maintenance appraisal tool (HMAT) is a spreadsheet based model. It allows local highway authorities to assess the economic costs and benefits of proposed asset management strategies. It also allows them to compare different options.
22 Forecasting of Approximate Revenue Model (FARM)
FARM is used to test the impacts of key demand drivers (including fare policy) on demand and revenue.
23 Exogenous Demand Growth Estimator (EDGE)
The model estimates growth in demand for rail travel based on exogenous factors such as employment, population and GDP. It implements the industry accepted (PDFH) methodology for forecasting demand based on forecasts of demand drivers and elasticities.
24 RIOC (Rail Industry Operating Costs) Model for assessment of rolling stock costs. Focussing on project appraisal within wider business case development.
25 Carbon Trajectory Model (CTM) The model produces estimates of rail energy for traction, carbon emissions (and associated social costs), and energy costs.
26 Rail Emissions Model (REM) For given user defined years and rail timetables, REM produces estimates of rail energy for traction, carbon emissions and associated social costs for passenger and freight services on the GB rail network.
27 Crossrail Business Case Model An appraisal model developed by TfL to construct a WebTAG-compliant economic appraisal using transport model inputs from TfL transport models (LTS and Railplan), applied in the case of the Crossrail 1 business case refresh and intended for use by TfL for other transport economic appraisal.
28 Crossrail Investment Model The CIM assembles cost outturns and estimates for different components of the Crossrail project.
29 HS2 Property Cost Model The model is used to forecast the financial outlay to the Department arising from discretionary property compensation schemes proposed on the line of the consulted HS2 route.
30 WITA (Wider Impacts Transport Appraisal) WITA (Wider Impacts in Transport Appraisal) estimates the wider impacts of transport schemes that are not part of conventional transport user benefit appraisal.
31 MOT Compliance Survey The MOT Compliance Survey (MCS) is an annual survey conducted by DVSA to estimate the baseline level of compliance with published MOT scheme standards.
32 Fleet Compliance Checks IHAC have developed a suite of models, systems and processes used to construct the sample, collect and analyse the data from the Fleet compliance Check (FCC) annual survey.
33 Biofuels Model A model used to generate cost benefit estimates for biofuels policy and wider renewable energy policy decisions.
The Financial Model is used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.
35 West Midlands Franchise Competition Comparator Modelling Suite
A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast the costs, revenues and economic benefits of the franchise and to conduct economic appraisal of bids.
36 Rail finance Long-Term Forecast (LTF) This model produces a long-term (>10 years) forecast of the financial position for DfT’s Rail Executive, at the level of individual rail franchises and projects.
37 UK Civil Aircraft Noise Contour Model (ANCON)
A model used for noise mapping in UK airspace.
38 Investing in cycling and walking: the economic case for action toolkit
This tool allows local authorities or any other user to estimate the cost benefit ratio for proposals for investing in cycling or walking schemes.
39 Highways Maintenance Funding Needs Element Formula model
The model is used to allocate highways maintenance funding to local authorities.
40 Integrated Transport Block Formula model The model is used to allocate this funding between local authorities.
41 General Lighthouse Fund cashflow model The model is used to inform the annual Ministerial decisions on the rate of Light Dues to be applied from the start of each financial year.
42 PLANET Suite of Models This is a suite of models used to test the impacts of rail interventions on rail demand, crowding and revenue, especially when a timetable is not fully developed or available.
43 Demand Driver Generator (DDG) network of models
This collection of models is a series of spreadsheet tools used to come up with a standard set of exogenous inputs to be used in rail elasticity based forecasting.
44 MOIRA The model is an assignment of demand to trains tool. It is used to analyse the impacts of changes in timetables and rolling stock initiatives. It is also used to construct revenue models for franchise operations.
45 MOIRA2 This model is used to analyse timetable-related changes. It also undertakes crowding calculations which the MOIRA does not do.
46 South West Trains (SWT) (Franchise Agreement start date: 04/02/2007)
These models produce the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.
47 Virgin East Coast (Franchise Agreement Dated: 9 December 2014)
48 Virgin West Coast (Franchise Agreement start date: 22/06/2014)
49 First Great Western Financial Model (Franchise Agreement start date: 02/10/2013)
50 First Greater Western Financial Model (Franchise Agreement contract signature date: 22/03/2015)
53 East Midlands Trains (Franchise Agreement start date: 18/10/15)
54 London Midland (Franchise Agreement start date: 01/04/16)
55 TPE First Financial - Financial Model v7
56 Northern_Arriva_Financial_Model_v1.00
57 East Anglia Financial Model
58 Cross Country (Franchise Agreement start date: 16/10/2016)
59 West Coast Partnership Franchise Comparator modelling suite
A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast the costs, revenues and economic benefits of the franchise and to test options (across a range of policy areas) for inclusion in the West Coast Partnership specification.
60 South Western Franchise Comparator Modelling Suite
A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast the costs, revenue (and associated risks) and economic benefits of the franchise and to test options (across a range of policy areas) for inclusion in the South Western specification.
61 Network Modelling Framework (NMF) The model is used to test the impacts of infrastructure, rolling stock or timetable interventions on rail demand, revenue and to calculate economic benefits of such interventions.
62 Tactical Deployment Tool The model groups Coastguard Operational Zones into areas in such a way that each one has a similar historical rate of incidents, i.e. grouping the zones into more equal workloads for Coastguard Officers. The results provide a starting point for Coastguard Operational plans.
63 Matrix Charging Model The matrix charging model is used to calculate the Police Service Agreement (“PSA”) charges for the Network Rail, train operating companies and train freight companies that fund the British Transport Police (“BTP”). The matrix charging model is run twice a year to calculate a provisional charge and the actual charge.
64 Finance Budget Model Handles VCA’s diverse portfolio of business related activities. Based on spreadsheets which track VCA’s current position and predict future income and costs.
65 Survey and Inspection Review Model The model is being used to build a picture of 'Survey and Inspection activity' and then to model ‘what if’ scenarios to determine the optimal outcomes.
66 Technical Test Reports This consists of over 70 models, combined into one. It determines whether specific Type Approval legislative requirements have been met.
67 Quarterly and annual accounts model This spreadsheet-based model is the main quarterly and annual accounts production tool. The information from this model is published annually.
68 Severn River Crossing Loan Repayment Model
This spreadsheet-based model calculates the outstanding loan, interest and accumulated debt for the Severn River Crossing. It is also used for the annual and quarterly accounts and the Highways England balance sheet.
69 Benchmark Estimating Model Benchmark generates estimates of costs for major schemes and therefore informs any decisions about scheme viability.
70 CHARM 3a CHARM 3a is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the A14 Cambridge to Huntingdon improvement scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme.
71 Lower Thames Crossing traffic model The Lower Thames Crossing (LTCv2) traffic model is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the LTC scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme.
72 SWARMMS SWARMMS is a traffic model created to support the London to South West & South Wales Multi-Modal Study, delivered in 2002. The model has since been updated to provide future forecasts of traffic for schemes in the South West, in particularly the A303 Amesbury to Berwick Down scheme.
73 M4 model The M4 model is a traffic model created to support the development of the M4 J3-12 Smart Motorway scheme. It is a refinement of the model used to assess the M3 J2-4a Smart Motorway scheme.
74 Highways England Regional Transport Models
The Highways England Regional Traffic models consist of five strategic SATURN highway models covering the entirety of England. The models focus on the strategic road network and have a 2015 base year.
75 The Equality, Diversity & Inclusion Tool This is an analytical tool that uses a range of data (socio economic, demographic etc.) to assess, on a scheme by scheme basis where accessibility & inclusion efforts should be focussed to deliver the greatest benefits to communities.
76 Lighting Investment Support Tool This model supports regional lighting scheme decisions
77 Powersteering This programme is used to centrally manage project information on powersteering.
78 Roads Authority Asset Valuation System (RAAVS)
The model provides the valuation system to value the infrastructure asset of Highways England: carriageways (roads/pavements), structures (bridges /embankments), land and communication equipment (technology).
79 Supplemental accounts tools This set of tools and models are used for the: analysis of journals to create financial notes, the valuation of non-network fixed assets, the management of surplus properties and their valuation as well as the analysis of inventory to calculate stock provisions.
80 PFI Repayment Model This spreadsheet-based model calculates the outstanding balances for all PFI contracts, determining future interest and repayment of loans.
81 DBFO payment/forecast models These models calculate the payments for all DBFO (design, build, finance, operate) contracts
82 Roadworks Estimator This model generates estimates of highways works to inform the calculation of the financial cost of roadworks and the delay costs to customers.
83 Software for the Whole life Economic Evaluation of Pavements (SWEEP)
This system provides a central repository of road pavement condition data and various analysis tools for the preparation of road renewal schemes.
84 KSI Forecasting Model Models forecast KSI’s (killed or seriously injured) in project appraisal
85 Air Quality Model This model is used as a tool for designing bespoke air quality models for major projects.
86 The safety Risk Model This model takes data sets and provides outputs that can then be used to inform decisions on safety risks from major projects
87 The Hazard Log for Smart Motorways This model takes data sets and provides outputs that can then be used to inform decisions on hazards for smart motorway projects
88 Train Allocation Model (TAM) The Train Allocation Model (TAM) is needed to produce estimated loadings on individual services and to produce key indicators such as load factor and demand suppression in case of insufficient capacity. These factors will allow HS2 Ltd to differentiate between potential fleet options, trains service specifications and calling pattern options.
89 Commercial Analysis Modelling Framework Analysis for the Financial Case, assessing long term operational on-going finances of the railway.
90 PLANET Framework Model (PFM) The model is used to forecast demand for journeys, both with and without HS2.
91 VfM Model for Rolling Stock Sifts The model will be used to compare the costs and benefits of potential fleet options.
92 COST-OS Provides consistent approach to estimating secure systems that interacts with excel and PRISM
93 PRISM PRISM software is implemented across the HS2 delivery organisation to enable integrated baseline and project cost performance management, which will include the application of earned value management.
94 XACTIUM Risk Manager The Enterprise Risk Management System provides a central collaborative environment to manage risk.
95 CAdnaA Models noise abatement measures for HS2
96 Consolidated Funding The funding model is used to calculate the real and nominal annual funding requirements of the HS2 programme, based upon the cost estimates from the Baseline Cost Models for each Phase and applying inflation rates provided by the HS2 Independent Inflation Expert. The nominal outputs form the basis for spending review submissions for delegation of budgets to HS2.
97 BL 6 Cost Assurance Process Models baseline cost assurance processes for HS2
98 HS2 Phase 2 noise model toolset (ArcGIS) Preparation for input data for the computer aided noise abatement model, and calculation of noise appraisal outputs using output for this model.
99 Design Models Sources 2D and 3D design models for HS2
100 Electrification & Plant Tier 2 whole lifecycle cost model
Forecasts Whole Life Costs for electrical power investment projects such as the Central Traction Power Strategy, E-W Rail, etc.
101 Electrification & Plant Tier 1 whole lifecycle cost model
Forecasts electrical power asset renewal costs, volumes and outputs (sustainability) over 35 years. Output informs electrical power renewal strategy and sustainability.
102 Network Rail Cash Flow Model Used to monitor short-term and rolling annual cash requirements. Used to manage against drawdown from DfT.
103 DCF Investment Model (Property) Model is used to appraise property investment appraisals relating to arch/retail refurbishments and other related opportunities.
104 SORAT SORAT software provides the functionality to record all signal overrun risk assessments and forms the formal Network Rail record a signals overrun risk.
105 Vegetation Management WLC Model Forecasts cost and volumes to perform vegetation management.
106 RailSys This model is used to develop and analyse timetables on infrastructure layouts.
107 DCF Appraisal Template This model contains all the relevant values and assumptions recorded in the DfT WebTAG guidance.
108 MET-EX Tool to understand the impact of weather on passenger performance measure, Schedule 8 and asset reliability.
109 Utilities CP5 Model Calculates Network Rail's non-traction future utility costs from past consumption and views of future consumption and rates
110 OLE-EX/SME Tool to support decisions re. overhead line equipment maintenance
111 Performance Target Setting Models This model provides input into the setting of performance targets for NR and the Train Operating Companies.
112 PPM Attrition Model The attrition model gives an overview of passenger performance measures, and is used by the routes/TOCs to make sure that their performance strategies are focussed in the right area.
113 TRACK-EX Tool to predict rolling contact fatigue and assist decision making for mitigations and controls.
114 MOIRA This model is used to provide revenue, journeys and passenger miles by arc, flow or service group.
115 Availability Workbench This software tool is used to develop Reliability Block Diagrams and Fault Trees for complex railway systems. These are subsequently used to estimate reliability, availability and maintainability.
116 Legion The software is used to assess passenger flows in a station which highlights congestion (density levels) and provides journey times.
117 CBA Tool This is a Cost benefit Analysis Tool (CBA) to support decision making about safety-related enhancements.
118 Network Rail Financial Model This is a spreadsheet based model that produces financial projections and scenarios.
119 Common Consequence Tool This tool estimates the potential safety consequences (fatalities and injuries to train occupants) arising from a train derailment.
120 Common Riks Scoring Matrix for safety (CRSM4S)
This tool compares various event risks; helping users to identify assets/events of high safety risk.
121 TRAIL This tool is used to simulate a timetable. The key output is service lateness.
122 VISION This tool simulates the interaction of trains with one another and with the signalling system on complex networks.
129 Traction Electricity Costing Model Traction Electricity price locks are recorded and train operator Electric Current for Traction (EC4T) tariffs are calculated
130 Ready Reckoner EXCEL model to incorporate berthing offset changes into Schedule 8 performance Regimes to ensure that changing the offset itself does not influence the financial flows through the Schedule 8 performance regime.
131 ALCRM ALCRM is a risk score calculator used as a basis for forming comparisons for Level Crossing on the Infrastructure.
