By how much do land, water use and crop yields need to ...The resource outlook to 2050 By how much...

The resource outlook to 2050By how much do land, water use and crop

yields need to increase by 2050?

by

Jelle Bruinsma

Consultant, ESA, FAO

• present the resource use implications to 2030 and 2050 of FAO’s latest (2006) long-term base line outlook

• evaluate the expected increases in land / water use and crop yields against potential increases

What this presentation does….

The resource outlook to 2050

… and what it does not do• take into account additional production

needed for eliminating under-nourishment or for bio-fuel production

• nor does it explicitly account for impacts of climate change


• How much more needs to be produced?• Sources of growth• Land potential and land expansion• Irrigated land expansion and water use• Yield increases and yield gaps• Summary and conclusions

Outline presentation

• starting point: 2006 crop production projections• base year 2005/07 (latest FAOSTAT data)• fair amount of detail:

– 108 countries / country groups (93 developing and 53 developed = industrial and transition)

– 34 crops and 1 “other harvested land”– rain-fed and irrigated (data problems)

• no formal model – initial projection inspected and adjusted– taking in all info available (e.g. AEZ)– and relying on expert-judgement

Approach followedThe resource outlook to 2050

How much more needs to be produced by 2050?Absolute increments in percent


past = 1961/63 to 2005/07; future = 2005/07 to 2050

255

97

63

23

148

70

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

past

future

past

future

past

futureD

evel

opin

gD

evel

oped

Wor

ldAgricultural production


• crop production growth from 2.2% to 1.1% p.a.

This still means that:• an additional billion tonnes of cereals

needs to be produced annually by 2050• and 210 milion tonnes of meat• soybean production to increase by

140% to 515 mln tonnes

How much more needs to be produced by 2050?

Sources of growth in crop production (2005/07 to 2050)

9

14

77

21

8

71

30

18

52

25

6

69

58

87

212

86

-7

17

90

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

WorldDeveloping countries

Latin America

sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

East Asia

Near East / North Africa

Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases



Arable land expansionLand with (rainfed) crop production potential (million ha)

Source: AEZ 2002

Totalland

suitable

Verysuitable

Suitable Moderatelysuitable

Land in use in

2005/07

Gross land

balanceattainable yield as % of MCFY 80-100 60-80 40-60

World 4188 1348 1509 794 1602 2586

Developing countries 2782 1109 1001 400 966 1816

Sub-Saharan Africa 1031 421 352 156 236 795

Latin America 1066 421 431 133 203 863

East Asia 366 146 119 53 235 131

Near East/North Africa 99 4 22 41 86 13

South Asia 220 116 77 17 206 14

Developed countries 1371 222 495 391 635 736

Arable land expansionLand with (rainfed) crop production potential (million ha)

Source: AEZ 2002

1602

635

966

236

203

235

206

86

2586

736

1816

795

863

131

14

13

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

World

Developed countries

Developing countries

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America

East Asia

South Asia

Near East/North Africa gross land balance

land in use 2005/07


Arable land expansionThirteen developing countries accounting for two-thirds of the

(gross) land balance

The resource outlook to 2050 Braz

ilCo

ngo,

DR

Ango

laSu

dan

Arge

ntin

aCo

lom

bia

Boliv

iaVe

nezu

elaMoz

ambi

que

Indo

nesia

Peru

Tanz

ania

Zam

bia

2005 in use2050 in usepotential

598

188

81 94 10472 67 61 62 90

58 65 570

100

200

300

400

500

600million ha


Suitable land left, but......qualifications:

Much of the gross land balance (2.6 bln ha) is• very unevenly distributed• under forests (800 mln ha), protected (200

mln ha), under settlements (60 mln ha)• suitable for only a few crops• suffering from one or more constraints

Arable land expansion

Arable land expansion

y = 4.4114x - 7274.3R2 = 0.9691

y = 5.3585x - 9822.9R2 = 0.9914

y = -0.9472x + 2548.6R2 = 0.5635

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

World

Arable land and land under permanent crops (million ha)

Developing countriesDeveloped countries


Arable land expansionThe resource outlook to 2050

Arable land and land under permanent crops (million ha)

1673

1086

587

16481602

1040966

609636

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

World


Developed countries

Arable land expansionTotal arable land: data and projections

arable land in use (mln. ha) annual growth (% p.a.)1961/63 2005 adj. 2050 1961-2005 2005-2050

World 1375 1602 1673 0.30 0.10Developing countries 693 966 1086 0.67 0.27Developed countries 679 635 587 -0.14 -0.18

sub-Saharan Africa 133 236 300 0.80 0.55Latin America 105 203 255 1.01 0.52Near East/ North Africa 86 86 82 0.34 -0.11South Asia 191 206 212 0.15 0.07East Asia 178 235 237 0.99 0.02



IndiaChina

Brazil

Nigeria

Indonesia

Argentina

Mexico

Turkey

Pakist

an

Thailand

Congo, DR

Sudan

Ethiopia Iran

Tanza

nia

Myanmar

Niger

Philippines

20052050

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

18 developing countries with over 10 mln. ha of arable land in use

(accounting for 75% of total)


arable land cropping intensity

harvested land

mln. ha percent mln. haWorld 2005/07 1602 87 1392

2050 1673 93 1556Developing countries 2005/07 966 95 919

2050 1086 99 1078

excl. China and India 2005/07 666 82 5472050 785 89 697

Developed countries 2005/07 635 74 4732050 587 81 478

Harvested land

Irrigated land expansion and water use


Area equipped for irrigation (million ha)

y = 0.8367x - 1602.3R2 = 0.9407

y = 2.6918x - 5178.2R2 = 0.9942

y = 3.5285x - 6780.5R2 = 0.991

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

World


Developed countries

Irrigated land expansion and water useThe resource outlook to 2050

Area equipped for irrigation

1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961-05 2005-50million ha % p.a.

World 141 287 318 1.71 0.24Developed countries 38 68 68 1.57 0.00Developing countries 103 219 251 1.76 0.31

excl. China and India 47 97 117 1.91 0.42sub-Saharan Africa 3 6 8 2.07 0.67Latin America 8 18 24 2.05 0.72Near East/North Africa 15 29 36 1.86 0.47South Asia 37 81 86 1.98 0.14East Asia 40 85 97 1.42 0.30



Area equipped for irrigation and area in use (million ha)

222

273

189212

240

263

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World

area equipped

area in use

developing countries

developed countries

Irrigated land expansion and water useThe resource outlook to 2050

Water withdrawal for irrigation (cubic km)

Water use efficiency ratio (%)

Irrigation water withdrawal (km3)

Pressure on water resources (%)

2005/07 2050 2005/07 2050 2005/07 2050

World 44 46 2620 2906 6 7

Developed countries 42 43 505 493 4 4

Developing countries 44 47 2115 2413 8 9

sub-Saharan Africa 22 25 55 87 2 2

Latin America 35 35 181 253 1 2

Near East/North Africa 51 61 347 374 58 62

South Asia 54 57 819 906 36 39

East Asia 33 35 714 793 8 9

Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050

world 2005/07 2050 1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961- 2007

2005/07 - 2050

land (mln. ha) yield (t/ha) yield (% p.a.)

All crops ($/ha) 1392 1556 1.7 0.8

All cereals 705 753 1.40 3.22 4.34 1.9 0.7

Wheat 224 242 1.14 2.72 3.75 2.1 0.7

Rice (paddy) 158 150 1.93 4.05 5.23 1.8 0.6

Maize 155 190 1.99 4.73 6.06 2.0 0.6

Soybeans 95 141 1.14 2.29 3.66 1.5 1.1

Groundnuts 24 39 0.86 1.49 1.91 1.6 0.6


Cereal yields: bottom and top 10% of developing countries with over 50 thousand ha under crop

400

2150

830

5650

1500

9020

670

4660

1060

7520

2480

9840

520

2160

530

7770

1540

9820

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1961

/6319

61/63

2005

/0720

05/07 2050

2050

1961

/6319

61/63

2005

/0720

05/07 2050

2050

1961

/6319

61/63

2005

/0720

05/07 2050

2050

wheat rice maize

Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050 2005

/0720

50AEZ (V

S+S+M

S)

AEZ (VS)

AEZ (S)

AEZ (MS)

land (million ha)yield (kg/ha)

23673173

4712

7408

4975

3217

154 169

1869

395 647 8270

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Rainfed wheat in the world


Wheat yields: 16 countries with over 4 million tonnes of mainly rainfed wheat production

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

UK GermanyDenmarkFranceHungaryPolandItalyUSARomaniaArgentinaUkraineCanadaTurkeyRussiaAustraliaKazakhstan

Actual yield (kg/ha), average 2003/07

Difference from agro-ecological attainable (AEZ VS+S+MS, rainfed, high input)


Wheat yields: 16 countries with over 4 million tonnes of mainly rainfed wheat production

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

UKGerm

any

Denmark

France

HungaryPolan

d

Italy

USARoman

iaArg

entin

aUkra

ineCan

ada

Turkey

Russia

Australi

aKaz

akhsta

n

Actual yield (kg/ha), average 2003/07

Difference from agro-ecological attainable (AEZ VS only, rainfed, high input)


• Increment agr. production 2006 to 2050: World +70%; Developing + 97%; Developed +23%.

• Continuing slowdown growth crop production (World 2.2 to 1.1%; Developing 3.0 to 1.2%)

• Most to come from more intensive agr.: World 90%; Developing 80%; Developed > 100%.

• Arable land to expand by 70 mln. ha (<5%). Developing + 120 mln. (12%), Developed – 50 mln. (- 8%).

• Harvested land + 160 mln. (17%)

Summary and conclusions -1


• Land equipped for irrigation + 32 mln. ha (11%) all of it in Developing.

• Irrigated harvested land + 17%.• Water withdrawal for irrigation + 11%.• Crop yield growth on average to halve (World

1.7 to 0.8%; Developing 2.1 to 0.9%)• GAEZ: suitable land left, but .....qualifications• Water: fairly similar as for land ...........• Bridgeable yield gaps ............

Summary and conclusions - 2


• Presented only highly aggregated picture…of course enormous variation among countries and commodities

• On the one hand, some developing countries set on path similar as for developed countries

• On the other hand, some developing countries facing severe land / water constraints

• Public intervention needed…e.g. in investment in agr. research

• All this for food and feed. Bio-fuels and Climate Change might change this.

Summary and conclusions - 3

Thank you !



135

48

34

103

38

2

0 50 100 150

past

future

past

future

past

future

Dev

elop

ing

D

evelop

ed

Wor

ld

Population

future = 2005/07 to 2050past = 1961/63 to 2005/07

Absolute increments in percent

255

97

63

23

148

70

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

past

future

past

future

past

future

Dev

elop

ing

Dev

elop

edW

orld

future = 2005/07 to 2050past = 1961/63 to 2005/07

Agricultural production


How much more needs to be produced by 2050?Absolute increments in percent

The resource outlook to 2050 103

38

148

70

135

48

255

97

34

2

63

23

0 50 100 150 200 250

past

future

past

future

past

future

past

future

past

future

past

future

popu

latio

npr

oduc

tion

popu

latio

npr

oduc

tion

popu

latio

npr

oduc

tion

Wor

ldD

evel

opin

gD

evel

oped

past = 1961/63 to 2005/07future = 2005/07 to 2050



Annual crop production growth (percent p.a.)

1961-07 2005/07-30 2030-50World 2.2 1.3 0.8Developing countries 3.0 1.5 0.9Developed countries 0.9 0.9 0.4

sub-Saharan Africa 2.5 2.5 1.7Near East / North Africa 2.6 1.7 1.0Latin America and Caribbean 2.6 2.1 1.3South Asia 2.6 1.6 0.9East Asia 3.5 1.0 0.5

Area equipped for irrigation in North America, Europe and Australia (million ha)The resource outlook to 2050

y = 0.1521x - 240.86R2 = 0.8663

y = 1.093x - 2111.5R2 = 0.977

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010



Water withdrawal for irrigation (world; cubic km)

525

891

1124

1541

1850

2191

24122503

2595

2620 29062831

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050


t/ha % p.a.

1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961 -07 2005/07 -2050

Wheat total 1.14 2.72 3.75 2.1 0.7rainfed 2.37 3.17 0.7irrigated 3.50 5.08 0.8

Rice total 1.93 4.05 5.23 1.8 0.6(paddy) rainfed 2.54 3.26 0.6

irrigated 5.10 6.40 0.5Maize total 1.99 4.72 6.06 2.0 0.6

rainfed 4.26 5.58 0.6irrigated 6.74 7.43 0.2

All total 1.40 3.23 4.34 1.9 0.7cereals rainfed 2.64 3.58 0.7

irrigated 4.67 6.10 0.6

Cereal yields, rainfed and irrigated

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