by

Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.*

Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA

Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA

by

Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.*

Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA

Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA

October 18th, 2006Mexico City

October 18th, 2006Mexico City

HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICOHURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICO

HydrologistDirector of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A.HydrologistDirector of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A.

**

Agriculture is a very risky economic activity

Climate AnomaliesClimate Anomalies

High inter-annual

climate variability

Induce high

uncertainty in

food production

El Niño Southern OscillationEl Niño Southern Oscillation

Crop losses in rain-fed agriculture of MexicoCrop losses in rain-fed agriculture of Mexico

4

5

23

50

00 2020 4040 6060

WindWind

PestsPests

FloodsFloods

DroughtsDroughts

% Losses% Losses

The presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation highly

modify the climate of Central America and Mexico

The presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation highly

modify the climate of Central America and Mexico

La Niña

El Niño

Weather Station in Huamantla, Tlax.Weather Station in Huamantla, Tlax.

1995 734 mm Neutral

1997 661 El Niño

1998 675 La Niña

1995 734 mm Neutral

1997 661 El Niño

1998 675 La Niña

CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNSCHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNSCHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNSCHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS

0

50

100

150

200

250

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

Pre

cip

. (m

m)

0

5

10

15

20

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Year

mill

ion

s

Prod (tons) Area (ha)

TREND OF MAIZE PRODUCTION IN MEXICO AND ENSO EVENTS

El Niño La Niña

Number of Tropical Storms

REGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITYREGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITYREGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITYREGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITY

ENSO & HURRICANES• El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic

• La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific

ENSO & HURRICANES• El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic

• La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific

Formed October 15, 2005Dissipated October 25, 2005

Highest winds 185 mph (295 km/h)

Lowest pressure 882 mbar (hPa)

Lowest pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane

Damages $16-20 billion USD

Fatalities 22 direct, 40 indirect

WILMA HURRICANE

19951995 NeutroNeutro

19961996 NeutroNeutro

19971997 Strong El NiñoStrong El Niño

19981998 La NiñaLa Niña

1999 La Niña1999 La Niña

ENSO, HURRICANES AND DROUGHTS

PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1996

% Dev.Avg Precip.

NEUTRAL YEARNEUTRAL YEAR

PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1997 % Dev.

Avg Precip.STRONG EL NIÑO YEARSTRONG EL NIÑO YEAR

PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1998

% Dev.Avg Precip.

LA NIÑA YEARLA NIÑA YEAR

PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1999

% Dev.Avg Precip.

LA NIÑA YEARLA NIÑA YEAR

SST, 6°-18°N, 20°- 60°W

PDI North Atlantic

SST = Sea Surface Temperature

Total Annual Dissipated Energy by Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

Emanuel (2005)

NORTH HEMISPHERE

North Atlantic

NortheastPacífic

(Accumulated Cyclone Energy)

Klotzbach (2006)

I

II

III

IVV

VIII

VIIVI

EVENT CLASIFICATION

• Landfall region• Category of the event• Month of occurrence• Length of records: 1960-2005• Only landfall accounted• Total event: 460• Events cat. 3,4,5: 191

HURRICANE ANALYSISMEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA

Sources of Info: NOAA, SMN, UNISYS

Japanese Meteorological Agency, SSTA

YEARS CLASSIFICACTION BASED ON THE ENSO INDEX

LA NIÑA NEUTRAL EL NIÑO

1963-1964 1960-1961 1962-1963

1966-1967 1961-1962 1964-1965

1969-1970 1965-1966 1968-1969

1970-1971 1967-1968 1971-1972

1972-1973 1976-1977 1975-1976

1973-1974 1977-1978 1981-1982

1974-1975 1978-1979 1985-1986

1987-1988 1979-1980 1986-1987

1997-1998 1980-1981 1990-1991

1998-1999 1982-1983 1996-1997

  1983-1984 2001-2002

  1984-1985 2004-2005

  1988-1989  

  1989-1990  

  1991-1992  

  1992-1993  

  1993-1994  

  1994-1995  

  1995-1996  

  1999-2000  

  2000-2001  

  2002-2003  

  2003-2004  

  2005-  

1960 - 2005

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

ALL

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

NEUTRAL

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

NIÑAS

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

NIÑOS

AVERAGE ANNUAL HURRICANES BY REGION

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Neutral Niño Niña

ATLANTICHurricanes per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

Neutral Niño Niña

PACIFICHurricanes per year

MODELING HURRICANE LANDFALL

Assuming that …

The occurrence of one hurricane can be treated as an independent event from the occurrence of another hurricane, thus …

The occurrence of hurricanes can be modeled with a Poisson distribution:

Pr (X = x) = e - μ μ x

x!x = 0, 1, 2, …

μ = avg annual hits

Probability of at least one hurricane 1 - Pr (X=0)=

PACIFIC ATLANTIC

  I II III IV V VI VII VIII

ALL 0.479 0.865 0.820 0.817 0.543 0.757 0.533 0.590

NEUTRAL 0.513 0.885 0.814 0.828 0.585 0.743 0.632 0.585

NIÑAS 0.503 0.850 0.817 0.865 0.667 0.889 0.593 0.798

NIÑOS 0.365 0.876 0.838 0.720 0.239 0.559 0.087 0.239

PACIFIC ATLANTIC

  I II III IV V VI VII VIII

ALL 0.160 0.729 0.479 0.444 0.309 0.353 0.178 0.353

NEUTRAL 0.148 0.674 0.513 0.493 0.356 0.381 0.213 0.274

LA NIÑA 0.095 0.632 0.451 0.330 0.393 0.330 0.259 0.727

EL NIÑO 0.239 0.597 0.420 0.365 0.087 0.239 0.000 0.087

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL

ALL EVENTS

CATEGORY 3, 4 y 5

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

Todos

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

Neutros

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

Niñas

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

Niños

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL, ALL CAT.

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

All Neutro La Niña El Niño

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL CAT. 3, 4, 5

By ENSO Phase

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y

I II III IV V VI VII VIII

REGION

14.8%

67.4%

51.3%

49.3%35.6%

27.4%

21.3%38.1%

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL

Category 3, 4 y 5

Neutral Years

Like, year 2006

March, 2006

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0 0 0 0.18 0.33 0.11 0

PR 5.52 3.03 8.84

M J J A S O N

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0.04 0.04 0.21 0.38 0.53 0.43 0.04

PR 25.5 25.5 4.69 2.62 1.88 2.33 25.5

M J J A S O N

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.11 0.11 0.08

PR 5.52 6.76 5.52 8.84 8.84 13

M J J A S O N

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0.04 0.04 0.15 0.11 0.18 0.15 0.15

PR 25.5 25.5 6.76 8.84 5.52 6.76 6.76

M J J A S O N0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0.04 0.38 0.18 0.27 0.33 0.24 0.04

PR 25.5 2.62 5.52 3.65 3.03 4.09 25.5

M J J A S O N

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0 0.18 0.21 0.21 0.3 0.24 0.04

PR 5.52 4.69 4.69 3.31 4.09 25.5

M J J A S O N0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0 0.15 0.11 0.15 0.24 0.21 0.04

PR 6.76 8.84 6.76 4.09 4.69 25.5

M J J A S O N

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Prob (1) 0.04 0.24 0.21 0.27 0.24 0.41 0

PR 25.5 4.09 4.69 3.65 4.09 2.47

M J J A S O N

MONTHLY PROBABILITYHURRICANE LANFALL AND RETURN PERIOD

NEUTRAL

Atlantico - Neutro

No. de Huracanes

Pro

babi

lidad

0 5 10 15 20 250

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.2

PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL

ATLANTIC

Neutral

El Niño

La Niña

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y

NUMBER OF HURRICANES

No. de Huracanes

Pro

babi

lidad

0 3 6 9 12 15 180

0.03

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.15

0.18

PACIFICO

Neutral

El Niño

La Niña

PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALLP

RO

BA

BIL

ITY

NUMBER OF HURRICANES

HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN YEAR 2006

HURRICANE LANDFALL IN YEAR 2006

PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN SEPTEMBER DE 2006

% Desv.

ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN YEAR 2006

% Desv.

ABANDON SOYBEANS FIELD DUE TO DROUGHT

IN SOURTHERN TAMAULIPASOCT, 2006

CONCLUSIONS

A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from

hurricane impacts

Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that

would be subjected to summer drought.

Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event

would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur

drought conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from

hurricane impacts

Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that

would be subjected to summer drought.

Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event

would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur

drought conditions.