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TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF PRODUCING MARGINAL OIL FIELDS IN THE NIGER DELTA USING WATER INJECTION BY RITA ONOLEMHEMHEN Co Authors: S.O Isehunwa, P. A Iwayemi, A.F Adenikinju CENTRE FOR PETROLEUM, ENERGY ECONOMICS AND LAW, UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN 1
Transcript

TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF

PRODUCING MARGINAL OIL FIELDS IN THE

NIGER DELTA USING WATER INJECTION

BY

RITA ONOLEMHEMHENCo Authors: S.O Isehunwa, P. A Iwayemi, A.F Adenikinju

CENTRE FOR PETROLEUM, ENERGY ECONOMICS AND

LAW,

UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN

1

OUTLINE

Introduction

Background of Study

• Literature Review

• Research Methodology

• Results and Analysis

• Conclusion and Recommendation

2

Introduction

A Marginal oil field is:

• Any oil discovery whose production would, for whatever reasons, fail to match the desired or established rates-of-return of the leaseholder (Egbogah, 2012).

• Any field that has reserves booked and reported annually to the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) and has remained unproduced for a period of over 10 years.

• According to the US Legal.com, marginal field refers to an oil field that may not produce enough net income to make it worth developing at a given time. However, should technical or economic conditions change; such fields may become commercial fields.

• Mainly characterized by low reserves and are economically sensitive to develop.

3

Introduction(cont’d)

Water Injection:

Is the process of injecting water into the aquifer through one or more injection wells surrounding one or more production wells for the purpose of maintaining pressure inside the reservoir to achieve optimum production and maximize ultimate recovery.

Recovery factor is:

Defined as the fraction of hydrocarbon in place thatcan be recovered or the equivalent measure of theultimate hydrocarbon recovery (Muskat, 1949)

4

Background of Study Marginal fields are currently-

• estimated to contribute about 30% to 40% of global oil

produced and about 3 to 4% percent of the total crude

production in Nigeria.

• gaining a growing importance due to the natural

production decline of large, mature fields.

Federal Government incentivized the development of

marginal fields to small indigenous production companies:

2003 award of 24 marginal fields to 31 companies

2013 award of 6 marginal fields to 4 companies

5

Marginal Fields distribution in the Niger Delta

Table1: DISTRIBUTION OF MARGINAL FIELDS IN DIFFERENT NIGER

DELTA TERRAINS

FIELD SIZE TERRAIN TOTAL

LAND SWAMP OFFSHORE

0-10MM bbl 51 21 7 79 43.17%

10.1-20MM bbl 37 22 24 83 45.36%

20.1-50MM bbl 3 7 11 21 11.47%

TOTAL 91 50 42 183

49.73% 27.32% 22.95%

Source: Oil and gas Journal, 2011

6

Source: Field Development Lecture Note (Isehunwa, 2006)

7

Figure 1:Historical Trend of Total Crude Oil Production vs Marginal oil Fields Production in Nigeria. Source: NNPC Statistical Annual

Bulletin, 2015

2015, 23291697

2015, 773458592

0

100000000

200000000

300000000

400000000

500000000

600000000

700000000

800000000

900000000

1E+09

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pro

du

ctio

n (

bb

ls)

Year

Marginal production Vs Total Production

Marginal Fields

Total Oil Production

Research Problem

Marginal fields are usually produced under primaryrecovery method due to the economically sensitivenature of such fields, which leaves a huge fraction of theoriginal oil in place (OOIP) in the ground.

There has been a decline in Nigerian’s oil reserves whichis put at 37billion barrels. However, the governmentprojects a reserve of 40billion barrels by 2020 (NNPC:2016). Therefore, there is a need to economicallyimprove oil recovery

Hence, this study was designed to investigate increasedoil recovery from marginal oil fields within an economicframework.

8

Research Questions

Can water injection improve recovery in

marginal oil fields?

How will the incremental recovery justify the

investment?

9

Objective of Study

Broad Objective:

To determine the economic viability of incremental reserves arising from the use of water Injection to improve recovery of marginal oil fields.

Specific Objectives:

To estimate recovery factor under primary and secondary recovery.

To determine the incremental recovery from the use of water injection in marginal oil fields.

To determine the economic viability of water injection in marginal oil fields.

10

Justification of Study

Improving recovery for marginal oil fields will

improve their economics and will make these

fields attractive to investors

The development of marginal oil fields can

increase oil reserves and promote local

content.

11

Scope of Study

The scope of this study is: Limited to oil reservoirs which have partial water

drive mechanism and solution gas drive mechanism

in the Niger Delta region.

Limited to oil reservoirs that are marginal at the

point of discovery or oil fields that have only been

produced under their primary energy.

The impact of factors such as political,

environmental and social factors were not captured

in this study. 12

Literature ReviewAuthor

Year

Geo

location

Purpose of study Methodology Findings

Abbas, et al

2015

Russia Studied the effect of

water relative

permeability reduction

during low salinity

waterflooding on

improved oil recovery

3D reservoir simulation The sensitivity study shows

that the incremental recovery

increases for relative

permeability reduction.

Xin, et al

(2009)

China Analyzed the water

injection optimization for

a complex fluvial heavy-

oil reservoir

Integration of Geological,

Seismic and Production

Data.

The responses from the

water injection were very

positive and resulted in stable

reservoir pressure and

increased oil production

pressure.

Bruno, et al

(2008)

Abu

Dhabi

Reviewed the water

injection strategy of a

carbonate oil field

Reservoir simulation

model and history

matched for both pressure

and saturation changes was

used to compute voidage

replacement ratio

Results of the model

indicated that crossflow

magnitude was minimized

when certain pressure

differences were maintained

between the reservoirs.13

Gulstad

(1995)

America conducted a study on

the determination of

hydrocarbon reservoir

recovery factor by

using multiple linear

regression technique

for water drive and

solution gas drive

reservoirs in sandstone

and carbonate

reservoirs.

He however observed that

initial oil in place (OOIP)

had a strong correlation

with recovery factor both

in water drive and solution

gas drive reservoirs. He

also pointed out in his

study, that heterogeneity is

important to consider when

developing recovery factor

mode

𝑅𝐸𝐶 = −264.0.34 𝑂𝑂𝐼𝑃 +

29.37𝐼𝑛 𝑅𝑠𝑖 − 0.06 𝜆𝑜 +

10.70𝐼𝑛 𝜆𝑜 − 12.64𝐼𝑛(ℎ)

𝑅𝐸𝐶

= −279 + 0.44 𝑂𝑂𝐼𝑃

− 56.70𝐼𝑛 𝜇𝑜𝑎

− 119.45𝐼𝑛 𝑆𝑤

+ 0.04 𝑃𝑒𝑝 − 4.73 𝜇𝑜𝑖

+ 4.38 𝜇𝑜𝑎

+ 0.24 𝑂𝑂𝐼𝑃 𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑐

− 0.88 𝑇

Guthrie and

Greenberge

r

1955

N/S Developed a model to

estimate Recovery

factor

empirical correlations for

prediction of recovery

factor performance were

investigated by statistical

study of recovery factor

performances

ER = 0.2719log k + 0.25569

Swi – 0.1355log ( o) – i.5380

- 0.00003488H + 0.11403

Arps et al

1956

N/S Developed a model to

estimate primary

Recovery factor

Statistical method to

develop a correlation

model

RF =

Isehunwa

and

Nwanko

1994

Niger

Delta

Developed a model to

estimate primary

Recovery factor

Least Square Method

RF = C *

14

Although, much research has been done on

water injection, marginal field development and

recovery factor estimation. However, there is a

dearth in literature on the technical and

economic evaluation of this production

technique in the Nigeria’s marginal oil fields.

15

Gap in Literature

Theoretical Framework

The least square equation is presented as;

Recovery factor can be related to reservoir parameters

using Eq.(1), the coefficients of a, b, and c can be

determined. Recovery factor is expressed as:

𝑅. 𝐹 = 𝑓(𝜇𝑜, 𝑆𝑜𝑟 , 𝑅𝑠𝑖 , 𝑃, 𝐴𝑃𝐼)

𝑌𝑖 = 𝑎𝑋𝐼2 + 𝑏𝑋𝐼 + 𝐶 …………………………………….. (1a)

16

𝑅2 = 1 – ( (𝑅𝐹−𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑜𝑖𝑟 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 )^2 𝑛𝑖=1

(𝑅𝐹−𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑜𝑖𝑟 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 )^2𝑛𝑖=1

) ………………………….(1b)

Research MethodologyThe Technical Model

Data from 136 reservoirs having water drive mechanism and

129 reservoirs having solution gas drive mechanism were

collected from the Niger Delta. 13 reservoir parameters

(reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, oil viscosity, water

viscosity, temperature, API gravity, reservoir pressure,

formation oil volume factor, original oil in place, solution gas-

oil ratio and residual oil saturation) were adopted to develop

the recovery factor models.

The residual oil saturation for the reservoirs were estimated

using the model of (Isehunwa and Nwankwo,1994) for Niger

Delta fields.

17

Input Parameters for the Technical Model

18

Input parameter for solution gas drive model

Reservoir Parameter L (15%) M (50%) H (85%)

Reservoir thickness ( h)ft 12 26 80

Porosity (Ø) 0.126 0.178 0.28

Permeability (K)mD 10.9 79 380

Oil Formation vol. factor

(Boi) bbl/stb

1.1 1.26 1.498

Solution-gas oil ratio (Rsi)

scf/stb

187 480 909

API gravity(oAPI) 27.4 38 43

Reservoir pressure (P)Psi 1120 2044 3755

Input parameter for water drive model

Reservoir Parameter L (15%) M (50%) H (85%)

Reservoir thickness ( h)ft 12.36 30.3 90.8

Porosity (Ø) 0.17 0.28 0.32

Permeability (K)mD 140 440 1686

Temperature (T) k 123.2 170 208.8

Residual oil saturation

(Sor)

0.08 0.13 0.21

API gravity(oAPI) scf/stb 24.54 34.1 41

viscosity (µo) 0.37 0.85 5.9

Research Methodology Cont’d Preliminary Screening

S/N Correlation of Rf with

Reservoir Parameters

R2 Correlation Model input parameter

1 Rf vs OIIP 0.157 Very weak None

2 Rf vs Bio 0.011 No correlation None

3 Rf vs Swi 0.011 No correlation None

4 Rv vs Pi 0.493 Good correlation Solution gas drive

5 Rv vs h 0.045 No correlation None

6 Rf vs μo 0.88 Very strong Water drive, Solution gas

drive

7 Rf vs Ø (porosity) 0.007 No correlation None

8 Rf vs K 0.003 No correlation None

10 Rf vs API 0.582 Good correlation Solution gas drive

11 Rf vs Rsi 0.52 Good correlation Solution gas drive

12 Rf vs μw 0.321 Weak correlation None

13 Rf vs Sor 0.852 Very strong correlation Water drive, Solution gas

drive

19

Research Methodology Cont’d

The final equation for recovery factor for water drive

reservoirs is

20

𝑅𝑓𝑤 = 𝛼𝑖𝑥2 − 𝛼2𝑥 + 0.7432 …………………………….(1)

Where

𝛼1 = 0.0527

𝛼2 = 0.1909

𝑥 = (0.41𝜇0 + 𝑆𝑜𝑟 )

𝜇0 = Oil viscosity

𝑆𝑜𝑟 = Residual oil saturation

Research Methodology Cont’d For solution gas drive mechanism, the recovery factor is given as :

Where; a= 0.127, b= 0.0218, c= 0.0341, d= 0.1924

For the secondary recovery model, pressure is expressed as;

𝑃𝑠 = 0.0279𝑉𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑗 + 1069.5 (4)

While Sor is expressed in terms of

𝑆𝑜𝑟 = 0.430211 + 0.042846Inμo − 0.06733Swi ……………………………… (5)

Substituting Eq.(4) and (5)

𝑹𝑭𝒔 = 𝑪𝑭(𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟕𝝁𝒐−𝟎.𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟏𝟖𝑨𝑷𝑰𝟎.𝟒𝟖𝟕 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟒(𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟕𝟗𝑽𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒋 + 𝟏𝟎𝟔𝟗.𝟓)𝟎.𝟏𝟔𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟖𝟐𝟒𝟒𝑰𝒏𝝁𝒐 +

𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟔𝟖𝟓𝟎𝑺𝒘𝒊 − 𝟏. 𝟔𝑬−𝟖𝑹𝒔𝒊 + 𝟎. 𝟏𝟗𝟖𝟔𝟐𝟕) ………………………………………………………(6)

𝑹𝒇 = 𝒂𝝁𝒐−𝟎.𝟏 + 𝒃𝑨𝑷𝑰𝟎.𝟒𝟖𝟕 + 𝒄𝑷𝒊𝟎.𝟏𝟔𝟏 − 𝒅𝑺𝒐𝒓 − 𝟏.𝟔𝑬−𝟖 𝑹𝒔𝒊𝟐 + 𝟎.𝟐𝟖𝟏𝟒 ………. (3)

21

Research Methodology Cont’d The Economic ModelThe rate of production and annual production for the subsequent years were obtained

using the exponential decline equation.

𝒒𝒕 = 𝒒𝒊𝒆−𝑫𝒊𝒕 (7)

Oil produced from time t=0 to any other time is given as

△𝑵𝒑 =(𝒒𝒊−𝒒𝒕)∗𝟑𝟔𝟓

𝑫𝒊 (8)

And the time required to produce △Np is given as

𝒕 =𝑰𝒏

𝒒𝒊𝒒𝒕

𝑫𝒊 (9)

Where

qt = rate at any time t of production, BOPD

qi = initial rate of production, BOPD

t = time period between qi and qt, years

Di= nominal decline rate, fraction per year

ΔNp = Cumulative production during the time period, Stb.

22

Economic Model

The Economic Indicators of investment profitability

used for this study are;

𝑁𝑃𝑉 (𝑖, 𝑁) = 𝑡=0𝑁 𝑅𝑡

(1+𝑖)𝑡(10)

IRR is given as :

𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 𝑡=0𝑁 𝑅𝑡

1+𝑖 𝑡 = 0 (11)

Profitability Index= Present Value of Future Cash Flows Generated by the Project

Initial Investment in the Project (12)

23

Cash Flow model parameters Gross revenue= Annual Production × Oil Price

Cost (CAPEX & OPEX)

Abandonment cost

Royalty is % of Gross revenue (sliding scale royalty, ranges

between 2.5% to 18.5% for production of <5000bbl/d to >25000

overriding royalty (2. 5 to 7.5%)

NDDC charge = 3% of total cost

Investment tax allowance =20% of tangible CAPEX

VAT (value added) = 5%

Cost recovery = 80% of revenue after deducting royalty

Discount rate (opportunity cost of an investment) = 10%

(referenced to Muonagor & Anyadiegwu, 2013)

Oil price (referenced to Awotiku , 2011)

Petroleum profit tax = (official rate is 55%, unofficial rate is 65.75%)

24

Research Methodology Cont’d Table 2: The Base Inputs for the Cash flow Model

STOIIP 116 million

RF 0.59

Reserves 68.44

Cost per foot 150 $ 12.775

Average well depth 4,320 ft 12.742

Cost of drilling 1 producing well 648,000 $ 11.866

Cost of well head 10,000 $ 10.950

Cost 1 well 658,000 $

Cost of hiring MOPU and FPO 100,000 $ per day

PHASE 1 PHASE 2 NORTH FAULT BLOCK

Cost of 6 producing wells 3.948 MM$ Cost of 5 producing wells 3.29 MM$ Cost of 3 producing wells

Cost of drilling 1 injection well and water injection lines 0.9186 MM$ Injection well 0.9186 Injection well

cost of water injection pump 0.208 MM$ cost of water injection pump 0.208 MM$ cost of water injection pump

Total Cost of MOPU and FPO 219 MM$

TOTAL CAPEX 231.5918 MM$ Cost Recovery Limit 50%

Discount Rate 10%

Annual OPEX (30 staff+maintenance+accommodation) 10.44 MM$

Working interest (Pre-cost recovery) 100%

Post cost recovery 50%

Net profit interest 70% 30% due to original field owners

SLIDING SCALE ROYALTY

Daily production, bbl Rate

From To %

0 5000 2.5

5000 10000 7.5

10000 15000 12.5

15000 25000 18.5 18.50%

25000 No limit unless

negotiated

Oil Price 25 $/stb Royalty 12.50% US dollar inflation rate 2.00%

BASE INPUTS

25

Results and Analysis

Table 3: Results for water drive model

26

INPUT PARAMETERS RESULTS

Sor oil vis Swi Rf

I&N

Model

Coy

model G & G

Present

Model

0.29 0.2 0.12 0.67 0.57 0.45 0.58 0.68

0.27 0.5 0.22 0.65 0.56 0.56 0.44 0.66

0.26 0.25 0.19 0.67 0.58 0.53 0.48 0.68

0.34 1 0.15 0.64 0.51 0.38 0.52 0.64

0.32 0.91 0.17 0.61 0.52 0.49 0.56 0.64

0.32 2.4 0.25 0.57 0.49 0.51 0.4 0.58

0.28 2.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.48 0.35 0.59

0.16 0.7 0.42 0.72 0.61 0.04 0.37 0.66

0.21 4.2 0.47 0.6 0.52 0.1 0.24 0.58

0.35 4.1 0.23 0.55 0.46 0.55 0.38 0.58

0.23 0.61 0.3 0.67 0.57 0.45 0.42 0.66

0.28 0.24 0.15 0.67 0.57 0.75 0.59 0.68

Result and Analysis

27

Results and Analysis Table 4 : Result of the solution gas drive model

28

Results and Analysis

Table 5 :Result for Secondary Recovery factor model

29

RESERVOIR Present Work's

Model (RFs)

primary recovery

factor RFp Incremental RF

RESERVOIR 1 0.592632 0.490168 0.102465

RESERVOIR 2 0.541031 0.490168 0.050863

RESERVOIR 3 0.561429 0.315302 0.246127

RESERVOIR 4 0.506128 0.315302 0.190826

RESERVOIR 5 0.589312 0.315302 0.27401

RESERVOIR 6 0.600666 0.480886 0.11978

RESERVOIR 7 0.576351 0.390045 0.186307

RESERVOIR 8 0.571407 0.390045 0.181362

RESERVOIR 9 0.574493 0.480886 0.093607

RESERVOIR 10 0.542463 0.390045 0.152418

RESERVOIR 11 0.719616 0.450448 0.269168

RESERVOIR 12 0.583895 0.450448 0.133447

RESERVOIR 13 0.609453 0.201951 0.407502

RESERVOIR 14 0.598801 0.450448 0.148352

RESERVOIR 15 0.598768 0.450448 0.14832

RESERVOIR 16 0.65336 0.450448 0.202911

Table 6: Cash flow Analysis for Base Case

30

Results and Analysis Cont’d Table 7: Cash Flow Analysis for Onshore marginal fields

Year Nominal

Price

Inflation-adjusted

Price time,yrs Development

cost, MM$

Tangible dev.

CAPEX

Intangible deV.

CAPEX+OPEX Production,

MMSTB

Cum. Production,

MMSTB Gross

Revenue,MM$ Royalty Rate % Royalty ,

MM$

Net Revenue,

MM$

70% 30%

2011 0 231.5918 162.11426 69.47754

2012 86.46 88.19 1 10.220 10.220 883.621 12.6% 111.399 772.222

2013 91.17 94.85 2 9.676 19.896 882.175 12.3% 108.295 773.879

2014 85.60 90.84 3 8.800 28.696 753.293 11.7% 87.785 665.508

2015 42.50 46.00 4 8.140 36.836 345.929 11.1% 38.401 307.528

2016 37.00 40.85 5 7.227 44.063 267.399 10.2% 27.186 240.213

2017 37.00 41.67 6 6.643 50.706 245.791 9.4% 23.188 222.603

2018 37.00 7 6.242 56.947 230.936 8.9% 20.440 210.496

2019 37.00 8 5.548 62.495 205.276 7.6% 15.693 189.583

2020 37.00 9 5.256 67.751 194.472 7.3% 14.180 180.292

OPEX, MM$

DEV. CAPEX CAPITALIZED,$MM

Cost Recovery,

MM$

Cum Cost Recovery

$MM VAT, 5%

(CAPEX+OPEX) Abandonment

cost(MM$)

Educational Tax (2% of

Access profit), $MM

Investment Tax

Allowance, $MM

Total Tax, $MM

Profit Oil, $MM

Cost Oil, $MM

50%

0.00 0.00 0.00

10.44 9.01 78.48 78.48 12.10 117.486602 0.00 32.42 12.10 871.39 12.23

10.44 9.01 9.01 87.49 0.52 54.6449313 0.00 0.00 0.52 881.53 0.64

10.44 9.01 9.01 96.50 0.52 25.4162471 0.00 0.00 0.52 752.65 0.64

10.44 9.01 9.01 105.50 0.52 11.8215103 0.00 0.00 0.52 345.30 0.63

10.44 9.01 9.01 114.51 0.52 5.49837688 0.00 0.00 0.52 266.78 0.62

10.44 9.01 9.01 123.52 0.52 2.55738459 4.19 0.00 35.38 210.32 35.47

10.44 9.01 9.01 132.52 0.52 1.18948121 3.98 0.00 35.28 195.56 35.37

10.44 9.01 9.01 141.53 0.52 0.55324707 3.57 0.00 35.10 170.10 35.18

10.44 9.01 9.01 150.53 0.52 0.25732422 3.39 0.00 35.02 159.38 35.09

31

Results and Analysis Cont’d

The NPV and IRR Calculation

PO/Gt, $MM PO/It, $MM Accessible Profit,

$MM PPTbase, $MM PPT,$MM NCF Investor's Take (MM)

0.00 0.00 $ (231.59)

609.98 261.42 574.82 0.00 0.00 $ 139.70

617.07 264.46 708.79 0.00 0.00 $ 145.85

526.86 225.80 629.65 0.00 0.00 $ 127.69

241.71 103.59 285.27 0.00 0.00 $ 54.86

186.74 80.03 224.28 0.00 0.00 $ 42.51

147.22 63.09 209.61 55.76 30.67 $ 29.56

136.89 58.67 198.87 55.97 30.78 $ 27.88

119.07 51.03 178.59 56.38 31.01 $ 24.97

111.57 47.81 169.59 56.56 31.11 $ 23.27

NPV $228.25 MM

IRR 45.71%

32

The breakeven price for this project is $21

The profit to investment ratio is

𝑃𝐼 =𝑁𝑃𝑉

𝐼𝑁𝑉𝐸𝑆𝑇𝑀𝐸𝑁𝑇 𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇

From the table (15), the NPV is $228.25MM and the investment cost is $231.5918MM

𝑃𝐼 = 228.25

231.5918

𝑃𝐼 = 0.985

Recall that when the discounted cash flow (NPV) is used, the break even value is 0.0 while

for the undiscounted net cash flow, the break even is 1.0. with a PI of 0.985, the project is

economically viable.

Results and Analysis Cont’d

Table 8 : Cash flow Analysis for Offshore fields

33

NPV, IRR and P1Calculation for Case 3

34

Results and Analysis Cont’d The Probabilistic Approach

The Monte Carlos simulation was used to generate the distribution shown in

figure 2;

35

Risk and Sensitivity Analysis for Onshore water injection

project

36

Risk and Sensitivity Analysis for Offshore water injection project

37

NPV vs RF

38

-100

0

100

200

300

400

0 20 40 60 80

NP

V (

MM

$)

RF (%)

NPV vs RF @ $25, $50 & $75

NPV(MM$)@ $25

NPV(MM$)@ $50

NPV (MM$)@ $75

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 50 100

NP

V (

MM

$)

RF (%)

NPV vs RF @ 5%,10%, & 15%

NPV(MM$)@5%

NPV(MM$)@10%

NPV(MM$)@15%

Conclusion In conclusion, water injection project for marginal field

is technically and economically viable and will give good

returns on investment under the technical and

economic conditions established in this study. With the

help of the range of the economic indices shown in the

results obtained, it is a project that marginal field

operators should be willing to undertake. However, the

discount rate, development cost and oil price are the

key to making final investment decision in the project.

39

Recommendation and Policy Implication

Based on the findings from these analyses, the following recommendations were made:

Firstly, water injection project should be considered as a development plan in developing a marginal field as this study has shown that it will not only increase production and reserve but it will extend the economic life of the field.

Secondly, the recovery factor must be above 20%. Water injection should also be initiated in the early life of a field that proves to be a good candidate for water injection to prolong the life of the field and to maintain production from such fields.

The policy implication of this study is that government should continue the five (5)year tax holiday policy for new marginal field operators.

40

References Arps, J.J. and Roberts, T.G. 1955, The Effect of Relative Permeability

Ratio, the Oil Gravity, and the Solution Gas - Oil Ratio on the Primary

Recovery from a Depletion Type Reservoir, Trans., AIME (Petroleum

Development and Technology), 204,120.

Awotiku, O. I. “Quantification of Uncertainty and Risks for Developing

Marginal fields in the Niger-Delta”, M.Sc Project; The Department of

Petroleum Engineering, African University of Science and technology,

Abuja, Nigeria (2011)

Gulstad. R.L.1995. The determination of hydrocarbon reservoir recovery

factor by using multiple regression techniques, M.Sc Project Texas Tech

University, May1995.

Guthrie, R. K., & Greenberger, M. H. 1955. The Use of Multiple-

Correlation Analyses for Interpreting Petroleum Engineering Data. Drilling

and Production Practices, API 130-137pages.

Isehunwa, S.O and Nwankwo, S.U. 1994. A correlation of oil Recovery

factors for water Drive Reservoirs in the Niger Delta. presented at the 4th

NAPE Annual International Conference and exhibition, held in Lagos,

Nigeria. Nov. 14TH – 18TH, 1994. Paper 20.

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