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23 ................................................................................................ 1424 ........................................................................................................ 1425 1 2 ...................................................... 1426 ............................................................................................ 1527 2010 1955-1975 ................................................ 1528 ....................................................................................................................................... 1629 ....................................................................................................................................... 1630 ....................................................................................................................................... 1631 ................................................................................................................................... 1732 ................................................................................................................................... 1733 .................................................................................................................... 1734 ................................................................................................................ 1735 .................................................................................................................... 1736 .................................................................................................... 1837 ............................................................................................................................ 1838 ............................................................................................................................ 1839 ............................................................................................................................ 1840 ....................................................................................................................................... 1941 ............................................................................................................ 2142 .................................................................................................... 2143 ................................................................................................................ 2244 ............................................................................................ 2345 ............................................................................ 23
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2012 10 26 1
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30% 70%50% 70%
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2012 10 26 2
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2
CEIC
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2000
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2012 10 26 3
0.5
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1 2001
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CEIC
2012 10 26 4
1
1980
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1992
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1993
1995 4 11 57
1997 6
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2000
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2007 10
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18201960 7% 63% 0.4 GDP 1
75%
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2012 10 26 5
1955 3 19551975 56% 76% 1 1975
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World Population Prospects
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CEIC
32 %
33 /
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
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3500
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2012 10 26 19
� 2008 20082008 2008 - 2009
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Analyst Certification i
iiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained
herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
/ ( ) (1)(2)
//
2012
300 20%
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1.
66
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6300 300 10%
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156822 200122
8518048
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Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. -
This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. Z20374000
1934 15a-6(a) (2) 15a-6