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c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5!...

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2012 10 26 2010 2030 50% 70% 20 1 1750 1300 1400 2030 50%-70% 30%-50% 50%-70% 50%-70% GDP 50% 50%-70% 50% 30% 50% GDP 30000 15 010-60838756 [email protected] S1010510120003 010-60838015 [email protected] S1010510120052 010-60838405 [email protected] S1010511080001 010-60838230 [email protected] S1010511080003 010-60838023 [email protected] S1010511080002 010-60836734 [email protected] 1. ......................................... 2012-10 2. ......... 2012-9 3. ............................................................. 2012-9 4. 2012-8 5. 2012-8 6. .................................................... . .2012.7
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Page 1: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26

� 2010 203050% 70% 20 1

17501300 1400 2030

� 50%-70%30%-50%

50%-70%

� 50%-70% GDP

50%

50%-70%

50%30% 50% GDP 30000

15

010-60838756 [email protected]

S1010510120003

010-60838015 [email protected]

S1010510120052

010-60838405 [email protected]

S1010511080001

010-60838230 [email protected]

S1010511080003

010-60838023 [email protected]

S1010511080002

010-60836734 [email protected]

1..........................................2012-10

2. .........2012-9

3..............................................................2012-9

4. 2012-8

5. 2012-8

6..................................................... . .2012.7

Page 2: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

& ........................................................................................................................................... 1.................................................................................................... 1

.......................................................................................................... 4.................................................................................................. 8

.................................................................................................................. 8

................................................................................................................ 10................................................................................................................................................ 18

................................................................................................ 18........................................................................................................ 20

+ .................................................................................................. 24.................................................................................................................................................................... 25

1 ................................................................................................................................ 22 ................................................................................................ 23 ....................................................................................................................................... 34 ................................................................................................................................... 35 ................................................................................................................................... 36 ........................................................................................................................................... 67 ............................................................................................................ 68 ................................................................................................................ 79 ........................................................................................................................................... 810 ......................................................................................................................................... 811 1955 1975 ....................................................................................................... 912 ................................................................................................ 1113 1978 ............................................................................................... 1114 HP ......................................................................... 1115 ................................................................................................................................ 1216 ........................................................................................................................ 1217 ............................................................................................................................ 1218 ........................................................................................................ 1319 .................................................................................................... 1320 ........................................................................................................ 1321 .................................................................................................... 1322 ........................................................................................................ 13

Page 3: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

23 ................................................................................................ 1424 ........................................................................................................ 1425 1 2 ...................................................... 1426 ............................................................................................ 1527 2010 1955-1975 ................................................ 1528 ....................................................................................................................................... 1629 ....................................................................................................................................... 1630 ....................................................................................................................................... 1631 ................................................................................................................................... 1732 ................................................................................................................................... 1733 .................................................................................................................... 1734 ................................................................................................................ 1735 .................................................................................................................... 1736 .................................................................................................... 1837 ............................................................................................................................ 1838 ............................................................................................................................ 1839 ............................................................................................................................ 1840 ....................................................................................................................................... 1941 ............................................................................................................ 2142 .................................................................................................... 2143 ................................................................................................................ 2244 ............................................................................................ 2345 ............................................................................ 23

1 ................................................................................................................................ 42 2008 ............................................................................................................... 93 .............................................................................................................................. 204 ................ 245 GDP .................................................................................... 246 GDP ............................................................................................ 25

Page 4: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 1

2012 10 2012 3

30% 70%50% 70%

50%

&

1950 198011.2% 19.4% 28.4% 41.3%

16.2% 30.5%

19491960

136 200 1960 19.8%52 3000

19781960

Page 5: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 2

1 %

CEIC 2000 6

2

CEIC

1978 1978 2010

1978 1984 17.9%23% 0.85

2000

5%

1985 1991 23.7% 26.9%1984 10

Page 6: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 3

0.5

3 % 4 %

1992 201027.5% 50% 1.3

2006

1 2001

5 %

CEIC

Page 7: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 4

1

1980

1984 1986 2000 10%7750

1985 7

1986 10 6

1989 12

1992

1992 1994

1993

1995 4 11 57

1997 6

1998 10

2000

2001 5

2006 3

2007 10

2010 11

18201960 7% 63% 0.4 GDP 1

75%

19 70GDP 1 58% 75% 1945

Page 8: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 5

1955 3 19551975 56% 76% 1 1975

30% 70%GDP 3000 GDP 6000

85% 88% 91%GDP 25% 30%

20 60

Page 9: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 6

6

GDP

7

6

7 %

CEIC

Page 10: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 7

8

18681890 320

7.8% 1920 1930 10 8491544 24%

301940

35%1950 37%

1950

1960 1964 3001965 1975 1500 44.9% 197576%

70 1973 1979

2005 86% 1975 0.3

Page 11: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 8

50-70

2011 20106 6.7 49.95%

70% 202016

53.4% 2020 57.7% 2030 70% 67.8% 9

2010 2030 50% 70%1 20 3.5

17501300 1400

2010 60 1.82 13.4 13.6%2030 15 2030 60

85 4.24 15 28.3% 2030 1068%

9 % 10

World Population Prospects

50%50%

2010 50%

Page 12: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 9

50% 70%1955 1975 1955

50%

1955 36.3% 1975 46.6% 11

1956 1963 1966

11 1955 1975

1846%

1750 1965 -1975

2008

2

2 2008

2008

2009 -

2010

2011

Page 13: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 10

50%

50-70

GDP

GDPGDP GDP

GDPU

4112

U

50% 50%70%

Page 14: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 11

12

41

12

13 1978 %

Wind

14 HP

CEIC

Page 15: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 12

15

CEIC

16 %

CEIC

17

CEIC HP

18 1992 20103.69% 1.48%

24 2004

Page 16: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 13

18 %

CEIC

19 %

CEIC

20 %

CEIC

21 %

CEIC

22 %

CEIC

2324

2007

Page 17: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 14

23

CEIC HP

24

CEIC

50% 70%50% 70%

25 1 2 %

CEIC

2750% 12 8 3

50%

1955 19751955 28.5% 1975

50%

Page 18: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 15

26

CEIC 2009

27 2010 1955-1975 %

Wind

Page 19: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 16

50%

31 3536

2632 33 34

2009 3700 /20% 30%

3738 39

28 %

7%

50%

43%

CEIC

29 %

13%

52%

35%

CEIC

30 %

13%

50%

37%

CEIC

Page 20: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 17

31 %

59%27%

14%

CEIC

32 %

33 /

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 2008 2009

CEIC

34 /

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

CEIC

35 /

CEIC

Page 21: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 18

36

CEIC

37 % 38 % 39 %

1

+

40

Page 22: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 19

� 2008 20082008 2008 - 2009

2010 20112011 2011

� 2010

� 2011

3

40

Page 23: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 20

3GDP

19619 1411.36 75943 12993 922.45 72994

7196 501.70 63667

9920 366.59 36961

7315 404.09 49945

6949 232.12 31170

9576 286.69 33233

6041 391.08 50376

7636 566.62 57251

23027 1716.60 76074

6459 306.82 38015

1770 205.37 68938

8367 551.58 51144

6516 454.71 56620

7108 1743.86 246733

8912 951.09 92772 7946 1060.45 89082

7074 180.04 25624

28846 792.56 27596

11491 555.13 35215

7817 324.15 32411

3235 110.04 27904

CEIC Wind

= /

= /

41

1 13 13

Page 24: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 21

17

41

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

CEIC

= /

= /

42

1 14 24

42

1.0

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

CEIC

Page 25: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 22

60%30%

37%

75% 23%

43

0.971.03

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

CEIC GDP GDP

44

Page 26: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 23

44

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

CEIC

=1.04 -0.14

=1.04 0.14

45

45

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

CEIC

Page 27: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 24

5

+

410 GDP 52.7% 60%

12 3.78

GDP5 6

4

� 2015 15000 12.5%� 2010 9 55 36 5 65 30� 2015 2.5

201052% 60%

� GDP 60% 0.1 47.252.7%

� 60%� GDP 20%� 2015

GDP 23% 33%� 2.1% 4%� 9.3 / 11.7 /

� 2010 9.2 44.5 46.3 2015 5 45 50 2010 60%67.5%

� 55%� 2015

2010 63.5%70%

�� 8%� 2015 2010 57% 65%

5 GDP% 1 *

91.3 20.9 --- ---

92.1 0.8 83.5 1.3 87.0 1.7 81.3 16.7

CEIC *

Page 28: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

2012 10 26 25

6 GDP

* ** *** *** 10 556 47.1 37.0 30.6

12 25 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.7 48 1.0 0.6 3.0 8 541 24.6 3.2 15.5

CEIC * 4 ** ***

2005-2010 2005-2009

+

� 50% 70%50% 70%

50% GDP

� 50%

GDP

� 15+

Page 29: c? 4£# çNl Ï R Ô K%0 o ¢ Ö Ü · 2012-10-28 · c? 4£#" çNl AË u KÙAÏ!7 [ â,X !B÷ 5! F¼ Ú 2012 H10 Ü26 ¹ 1 E¥ ó È å À Í ¢ Ö ê Ã ¹ î ê Ã Î Î iC Ã

Analyst Certification i

iiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained

herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

/ ( ) (1)(2)

//

2012

300 20%

300 5% 20%

300 -10% 5%

300 10%

300 10%

300 -10% 10%

1.

66

300

2.

6300 300 10%

48100125

156822 200122

8518048

126

Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. -

This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. Z20374000

1934 15a-6(a) (2) 15a-6


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